衰退担忧的升温使得市场开始交易，美联储可能需要更快退出当前的紧缩政策，至少速度上有所放缓。据其测算，9月之后的高基数可能推动通胀更为明显地回落，而美联储在9-11月完成任务后可能逐步在政策上降速退坡。这也就意味着，尽管远端的紧缩预期不断回落，但三季度市场依然还要面临快紧缩和高通胀的压力。对于币圈接下来的走势，其预计三季度币圈整体震荡偏弱，预计彻底的转机可能要等到四季度政策能够退坡后出现，届时或可能成为市场交易逻辑转向利率下行和成长风格的契机。
According to its calculations, the high base after September may drive inflation more sharply back, and the Fed may gradually slow down its policy once it completes its mandate in September-November. This would mean that, despite a steady fall in advanced austerity expectations, three quarters of the market will continue to face fast austerity and high inflationary pressures.
比特币行情分析
BitcoinAnalysis
大饼算是本月线上第一次给出的思路，20600的多，目标21600这1000点空间开了一个好头，同时大饼走势也进入了多空分水岭，站上了21800压力位的制高点，可以看到K线已经突破EMA15开始冲击EMA30均线压力位，MACD底部背离也开始持平归零，DIF和DEA依旧向上扩散，日K线上方重点关注22400，KDJ向上扩散加速，布林带上轨21800短线承压，为第一压力位点。
For the first time on this month's line, the big pies, more than 20600, have opened a good head at 1,000 points of target 21600, while the big pies have moved into multi-altitude watersheds, standing on a height of 21,800 places of pressure, seeing that the Kline has crossed the EMA15 and has hit the EMA30 level of pressure, and that the bottom deviations of the MACD have begun to level zero, that the DIF and DAA continue to spread upwards, that the Japan-Kline focus on 22,400, that KDJ is accelerating upwards, and that the Boolean track has 21,800 short line pressure, which is the first pressure point.
4小时K线已经破位布林带上轨，KDJ承压，说明21800附近压力位很强，MACD放量上行，4小时K线站上均线EMA的高点，1小时线21800冲高以后开始回落，整体周期短线开始回调向下盘整，既然上不去，那么顺势空是最好的思路，记得带好止损，
The four-hour line K has broken into boolean and KDJ is pressured to indicate a strong pressure position around 21,800, a high point for MACD, a high point for the average EMA on the K-station, a 1-hour line that starts to fall down, and a short line for the whole cycle begins to reset to the bottom, and if it doesn't go up, the smooth air is the best idea.
稳健者21800-21200附近，空，目标21500-21300-21000，破位看20700，止损300-500点，谨慎追多
Near 21800-21200, steady, empty, target 21500-21300-21000, position 20,700, damage 300-500, careful pursuit.
严格止盈止损，控制好仓位，才不会被割韭菜，行情瞬息万变，勿贪，具体操作以实时策略为主，分析主做参考,风险自担
We're not gonna be cut off, we're not gonna be greedy, we're gonna focus on real-time strategy, we're gonna analyze it, we're gonna take care of it.
以太坊行情分析
Ether's Situation Analysis
姨太承压较强，上行比较乏力，并没有像大饼一样冲击1280，而是止步1250附近，日K线站立EMA15向上拉伸，承压1280，MACD底背离归零，KDJ向上扩散，布林带上轨承压1260回调向下，4小时K线目前回到布林带上轨站立支撑，短线上行受阻，MACD放量减少，短线偏空，1小时K线回落，MACD放量减少，KDJ有形成死叉迹象，思路上同步大饼即可，如下：
The aunt is more pressurized and less aggressive, and does not hit 1280 like a big pie. Instead, he stops walking around 1250, the Japan-Kline stands up EMA15 stretching upwards, pressure 1280, MACD bottom deviations zero, KDJ is spreading upwards, KDJ is spreading upwards, Bryn is on track 1260 echoes downwards, Kline is now returned to Boolin for four hours to stand up, short lines are blocked, MACDs are reduced, short lines are empty, Klines are down one hour, MACDs are down, KDJs are reduced, KDJs have signs of dead fork, synchronous large cakes are sufficient, as follows:
稳健者1250-1260，空，目标1220-1190-1160，破位看1130回踩1285补仓空，止损30点，谨慎追多
1250-1260, emptied, target 1220-1190-1160, pedaled 1130 back to 1285 to empty, 30 p.m., carefully pursued.
严格止盈止损，控制好仓位，才不会被割韭菜，行情瞬息万变，勿贪，具体操作以实时策略为主，分析主做参考,风险自担
We're not gonna be cut off, we're not gonna be greedy, we're gonna focus on real-time strategy, we're gonna analyze it, we're gonna take care of it.
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