最近币圈的合约之风盛行，带单老师也如过江之鲫，我还是坚持我一贯的观点，合约是职业玩家的游戏，是机构投资者的对冲工具，小白连现货都玩不好，就别去合约领域送人头了！
I've always maintained my view that contracts are a game of professional players, a hedge tool for institutional investors, and that White can't even play the spot, so don't send heads in the contract area!
合约杠杆是把双刃剑，放大收益的同时，也放大了风险！历史上因为加杠杆而破产的企业和个人，可以说数不胜数！
Contract leverage is a double-edged sword that magnifies gains, but also magnifies risks. Businesses and individuals that have been bankrupted by leverage in history can be said to be numerous.
08年金融危机下破产的雷曼兄弟，把次级债做到70倍以上的杠杆，后来次贷危机一爆发，百年老店一夜之间就跌落神坛！
11年欧债危机期间，同样是百年老店曼氏金融也因为加杠杆豪赌欧债而破产！这家历史长达200年的金融机构，崩溃只用了几天。 During the 11-year-old European debt crisis, also 100-year-old Mandarin finance went bankrupt by leveraging European debt. The 200-year-old financial institution collapsed only for a few days. 15年，A股股灾期间，多少人因为加杠杆，进行场外配资而破产，家破人亡！ In 15 years, during the A-share disaster, how many people went bankrupt as a result of leverage and off-the-shelf financing? 今年312，币圈一天之内就爆仓了上百亿资金！十几万人成为爆仓受害者！无数合约老手倒在了这场风暴里！ Billions of dollars in a day's worth of money have been blown up this year's 312. Tens of thousands of people have fallen victim to the blast! Countless contract men have fallen in this storm! ......这种破产的案例，写几天几夜都写不完！ ...in this bankruptcy case, you can't finish it for days and nights! 可惜散户的记忆只有7秒，好了伤疤忘了痛，几乎是大家的通病！ Unfortunately, the memory of the family is only seven seconds, so the scar has forgotten the pain. It's almost everyone's fault! 总觉得自己跟别人不一样，总以为自己是万中无一的天纵奇才，别人会爆仓，那是别人水平不行，我肯定可以通过合约实现暴富，走向人生巅峰！可实际上你就是一普通人！ I feel like I'm different from the others. I think I'm one of the most amazing people, and others are going to blow up. I'm sure I can make a big deal out of it. But you're an ordinary man! 这个市场别说普通人的终局是爆仓，就连那些大名鼎鼎的投资大神都难免破产的命运！ This market doesn't mean that ordinary people end up in a hole, even those famous investment gods are doomed to bankruptcy! 今天就来盘点一下那些，大名鼎鼎的投资大神，是如何通过加杠杆而爆仓的！ Today, let's take stock of how the famous investment gods are squeezing through leverage! NO1：杰西·利弗莫尔（别称华尔街大空头） NO1: Jesse Rivermore 大名鼎鼎的利弗莫尔，我相信做交易的没几个人不知道他的名号，我十年前就拜读过他的大作——《股票大作手回忆录》 I'm sure few of the people who made the deal don't know his name. 当时的我，对他的人生履历感到钦佩不已，交易鬼才，天生赌徒！四次破产，四次东山再起！他创造了多少奇迹我就不细数了，有兴趣的可以自行问度娘！ I was admiring his life history, a trader, a natural gambler! Four times bankrupt, four times rising again! How many miracles did he make? 经典战役：在1929年，利弗莫尔以一人之力战胜了整个华尔街，赚了整整一个亿美金，要知道当年美国全年财政收入也才约42亿美金，当时的1亿美金相当于现在的1700多亿美金。 Classic Battles: In 1929, Rivermore beat Wall Street with one man, making a whole billion dollars, knowing that the United States had only about $4.2 billion in revenue for the entire year and that $100 million was equivalent to more than $170 billion now. 自那以后，利弗莫尔就开始从巅峰逐渐走下神坛！持续的抑郁导致了他交易频频失误，到60岁时，利弗莫尔赔光了之前上亿的资金，他不得不宣布破产。这是他的第四次破产。他试图东山再起，但这时，他已经太老了。这时美国成立了证券交易委员会，股市变得更加规范，这让他变得非常绝望。 Since then, Lifmore has moved from the top to the altar. Continued depression has led to frequent failures in his transactions, and by the age of 60, Lifmore was forced to declare bankruptcy when he lost his previous billions of dollars. This was his fourth bankruptcy. He tried to come back, but by then he was too old. 结局：1940年11月28日，利弗莫尔在纽约曼哈顿的雪莉-尼德兰酒店的衣帽间用柯尔特自动手枪自杀，当然自杀的直接原因倒不是爆仓，当时利弗莫尔身价虽比不上颠覆时期的上亿美金，也依旧有500多万美元，当时的500万美元也足够他衣食无忧过完一辈子了！他自杀的原因是有重度抑郁！ Conclusion: On November 28, 1940, Livmore committed suicide with a Colt automatic pistol in the hood room of the Sherry-Nedland Hotel in Manhattan, New York. Of course, the direct cause of suicide was not the explosion, when Livmore was worth more than the hundreds of millions of dollars he spent in subversive times, and still had more than $5 million. The $5 million was enough to feed him for a lifetime. His suicide was caused by severe depression. 他的一生可远远比电影精彩！更诡异的是他们家族似乎被诅咒了一般：利弗莫尔的儿子利弗莫尔二世在1975年自杀身亡，利弗莫尔的孙子亦死于自杀。 His life was much better than a movie! Even weirder was the fact that their family seemed cursed: Livmore II, the son of Livmore, killed himself in 1975, and Livmore's grandson killed himself. NO2：凯恩斯 NO2: Keynes >/b> 说到凯恩斯，我们都知道，他是宏观经济学的开山鼻祖，英国著名经济学家，其代表作——《就业、利息与货币通论》、《论概率》至今依然被奉为经典! Speaking of Keynes, we all know that he's a grandkid in macroeconomics, a well-known British economist, whose representative — Employment, Interest and Monetary Probability — is still a classic! 他创立的宏观经济学与弗洛伊德所创的精神分析法和爱因斯坦发现的相对论一起并称为二十世纪人类知识界的三大革命。 The macroeconomics he created, along with the psychoanalytical approach created by Freud and the relativism found by Einstein, are known as the three major revolutions in the human knowledge community of the twentieth century. 就是这么一个牛逼闪闪的人物，居然也会因为加杠杆投资而破产！ He's the one who's got a lot of money, and he's going bankrupt because he's using leverage to invest! 1920年4月，在欧洲大部分国家都面临破产危机时，凯恩斯大赚一笔。然而四个月后，因为对德国的乐观情绪，欧洲货币重新抬头，凯恩斯的全部资金爆仓归零！ In April 1920, Keynes made a lot of money when most of Europe faced bankruptcy. But four months later, the European currency resurfaced because of optimism about Germany, and Keynes’s entire capital collapsed. 凯恩斯的判断在短期内是正确的，但是市场信心回振引起货币上扬，过于自信，过度杠杆让他最终毁于一旦！ Keynes was right in his judgment in the short term, but the return of market confidence caused the currency to rise, became too confident, overleveraging him to ruin it! 你以为这就完了？凯恩斯有一个有钱的老爸，在他第一次破产后，又给了他一大笔钱作为生日礼物让他东山再起！只不过他依旧赌性不改，还是喜欢玩高杠杆的大宗商品和外汇交易！所以不出意外，最终他还是破产了！
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