什么信号？近期暴涨的两大“造富神话”——黄金、比特币，双双下跌。
What's the signal? The two myths of the recent boom — gold, bitcoin, both falling.
上周五，国际金价小幅下跌，这是近四周以来，黄金首次录得周下跌。
Last Friday, international gold prices fell slightly, for the first time in nearly four weeks.
比特币日内最大跌幅超6%，价格一度跌破65000美元/枚。最近24个小时内，虚拟货币市场超39亿元爆仓。
The biggest fall was over 6% in Bitcoin, with prices falling by $65,000 a time. In the last 24 hours, the virtual currency market was over $3.9 billion.
担忧美联储降息推迟
worried that the Fed's interest rate reduction would be delayed
上周五晚间，现货黄金价格在每盎司2159.99美元附近波动，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的4月黄金期价当日下跌6美元，收于每盎司2161.5美元，跌幅为0.28%。
In the evening of last Friday, spot gold prices fluctuated around $2159.99 per ounce, and the most active gold futures market on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by $6 on the same day, to $2161.5 per ounce, or 0.28 per cent.
本周，最新公布的数据表明，美国劳工部公布的2月生产者价格指数(PPI)涨幅超过经济学家预期。2月PPI同比增长1.6%，增速高于预期值1.2%，前值由0.9%修正为1%。2月PPI环比增长0.6%，预期0.30%，前值0.30%。
This week, the most recent published data indicate that the United States Department of Labor announced an increase in the producer price index (PPI) in February that exceeded economists’ expectations. In February, PPI grew by 1.6 per cent in the same year, at a faster rate than expected of 1.2 per cent, and the previous value was revised from 0.9 per cent to 1 per cent. In February, the PPI ring increased by 0.6 per cent, with an expected 0.3 per cent and a previous value of 0.3 per cent.
通胀整体面临反弹风险，引发市场对美联储推迟降息的担忧，部分机构预计美联储可能到7月才会开始降息，而不是此前预期的6月份。
Inflation as a whole is at risk of rebound, raising market concerns about the delay in reducing interest rates for the Fed, some of which are expected to start only in July, rather than in June, as previously anticipated.
受降息预期变化影响，美债收益率本周显著回升，削弱了无利息回报的黄金的投资吸引力，国际金价本周累计下跌1.10%。
As a result of anticipated changes in interest-rate cuts, the rate of return on United States debt rebounded significantly this week, reducing the attractiveness of investment in gold without interest returns, and the cumulative decline in international gold prices by 1.10 per cent this week.
据悉，美联储将在3月19日—20日召开货币政策会议。会议焦点将是美联储新的加息路径“点阵图”。
According to the information received, the Fed will convene a monetary policy conference on 19-20 March. The focus will be on the Fed’s new high-interest path, the “point map”.
摩根大通的经济学家将对美联储2024年全年降息幅度的预测下调至75个基点。此前预计全年将降息125个基点。
摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli周五在解释这一调整的报告中表示：“缺乏经济疲软，我们认为委员会将采取缓慢的方式，我们现在预计今年将降息75个基点，或从6月开始每隔一次会议降息25个基点”。 至于下周将更新的点阵图，该行认为“有超过50%的可能性今年的预期中值会变为2024年降息两次、每次25个基点，12月显示降息三次”。 As for the point chart, which will be updated next week, the Bank considers that “there is a risk that more than 50 per cent of the median expected this year will be reduced twice in 2024 by 25 basis points each, with three interest reductions shown in December”. 另外，近日地区冲突有所缓和。 In addition, the conflict in the region has subsided in recent days. 据阿纳多卢通讯社当地时间3月17日报道，即将前往卡塔尔参加加沙地带停火协议谈判的以色列代表团不会早于18日启程。 According to the Anadolu News Agency on 17 March local time, an Israeli delegation to Qatar to negotiate a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip would not leave earlier than 18 years. 报道称，以色列战时内阁将于当地时间17日晚些时候举行会议，就以色列代表团的谈判任务和内容等问题进行讨论。 It was reported that the Israeli wartime cabinet would meet later on 17 local time to discuss issues such as the negotiating mandate and content of the Israeli delegation. 在会议结束后，以色列代表团才会启程前往卡塔尔。 The Israeli delegation would not travel to Qatar until after the conclusion of the meeting. 此前曾有媒体报道称，以色列情报和特勤局（摩萨德）负责人大卫·巴尼亚将于3月17日在卡塔尔首都多哈与卡塔尔首相兼外交大臣穆罕默德以及埃及官员就加沙地带停火协议问题进行讨论。 Earlier media reports indicated that David Banya, head of the Israeli Intelligence and Secret Service (Mossad), would discuss the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip with the Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Qatar, Mohamed, and Egyptian officials on 17 March in Doha, Qatar. 比特币暴跌 bitcoinsliding >/strong 3月17日，虚拟货币市场突然闪崩。 On 17 March, the virtual currency market suddenly collapsed. 比特币价格一度跌破65000美元/枚，日内最大跌幅超6%；以太坊价格日本一度暴跌9.77%。 Bitcoin prices fell by $65,000 at one time, with the largest fall of more than 6 per cent in the day; Japan fell by 9.77 per cent at a time. 据CoinGlass数据显示，最近24个小时内，虚拟货币市场共有16.6万投资者爆仓，爆仓总金额达5.41亿美元（约合人民币39亿元）。 According to CoinGlass data, in the last 24 hours, the virtual currency market has seen a total of 166,000 investors bust out of a total of $541 million (approximately RMB 3.9 billion). 这一轮暴跌前夕，以比特币为首的虚拟货币市场上演了一轮疯狂大牛市，大量投资者涌入虚拟货币市场，比特币价格不断刷新历史最高纪录。 On the eve of the crash, the virtual currency market, led by Bitcoin, saw a round of mad bulls, with large numbers of investors pouring into the virtual currency market, and the price of bitcoin constantly refreshing its record. 3月14日，比特币盘中创出历史新高，逼近74000美元/枚，相比今年年初累计涨幅超70%。前100种代币（包括Ether、BNB和Solana等）的指标也都上涨了约60%。 On March 14, the Bitcoin plate reached an all-time high of almost $74,000, an increase of more than 70% compared to the cumulative increase at the beginning of the year. The first 100 intergenerational currencies (including Ether, BNB, Solana, etc.) also saw an increase of about 60%. 近日，摩根大通针对比特币发布的一份报告，引发市场关注。 Recently, 报告指出，备受期待的比特币减半事件将在4月份到来，这可能会对比特币矿工的盈利能力产生严重负面影响。 The report states that the expected halving of the Bitcoin event in April is likely to have a serious negative impact on the profitability of the Bitcoin miners. 报告警告，比特币的价格可能会因此暴跌至4.2万美元/枚，较目前价格的潜在下跌空间超36%。 The report warns that the price of Bitcoin may drop sharply to $42,000/me as a result, more than 36 per cent of the potential decline in current prices. 报告中详细解释了这一预测背后的逻辑：首先，减半事件将直接减少矿工获得的比特币奖励，从而降低他们的收入；其次，由于比特币的生产成本上升，那些电力成本高、钻机效率低的矿工将面临更大的压力。 The report explains in detail the logic behind this projection: first, the halving of events would directly reduce the bitcoin incentives received by miners, thereby reducing their income; and, second, those miners with high electricity costs and low rig efficiency would face greater pressure as a result of the higher production costs of Bitcoin. 这可能导致部分矿工退出市场，进一步减少比特币网络的算力。 This may lead to the withdrawal of some miners from the market, further reducing the numeracy of the Bitcoin network. 尽管如此，华尔街仍有大量投资者看多比特币后市，IG的市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示，虽然比特币在短期内超买，但这一走势远未结束，下跌将得到很好的支撑，涨向8万美元并非不可能。 Nevertheless, there is still a large number of investors on Wall Street looking at the post-Dobitcoin market, and IG market analyst Tony Sycamore stated that, while Bitcoin oversold in a short period of time, this trend is far from over, and the decline will be well supported, and it is not impossible to rise to $80,000. 华尔街最大多头之一、前摩根大通首席股票策略师Tom Lee在一次采访中表示：“我认为比特币会直线回归其长期趋势线，短期内可能是8.2万美元，年底前可能达到15万美元。” Tom Lee, one of the largest players on Wall Street and former top stock strategist of Morgan Chase, said in an interview: “I think Bitcoin will return straight to its long-term trend line, possibly $82,000 in the short term and possibly $150,000 by the end of the year”. 铜涨价才刚开始？ The price increase for copper is just beginning? 与黄金和比特币相反，铜价突然暴涨。 In contrast to gold and bitcoin, copper prices suddenly skyrocketed. 上周五LME期铜收涨184美元，涨幅2.07%，报9072美元/吨，突破2023年4月18日收盘位9012.50美元，逼近当年2月21日收盘位9200.50美元，本周累计上涨超过5.73%。 Last Friday, the LME period saw an increase of $184 in copper, or 2.07 per cent, and an increase of $9072/tonne, exceeding the collection of $9012.50 on 18 April 2023, reaching $9200.50 on 21 February of that year, with a cumulative increase of over 5.73 per cent this week. 高盛分析师Nicholas Snowdon等在最新发布的一份金属行业报告中称，全球制造业复苏周期渐进展现，预示着大宗金属需求有望步入新的上行周期。 报告认为，中国“双碳”政策持续支撑绿色经济相关原材料需求，以及欧洲地区制造业复苏带动下的成本刺激效应，铜铝等金属将逐步进入供需缺口阶段，价格表现可期。 According to the report, China's “double carbon” policy continues to support the demand for raw materials associated with the green economy 分析师强调，近期的数据显示，全球制造业采购经理指数(PMI)自2022年9月以来首次出现扩张，预示着制造业活动的持续改善。 The analysts stress that recent data indicate that the Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) has expanded for the first time since September 2022, heralding a sustained improvement in manufacturing activity. 从历史数据来看，全球制造业周期触底后，往往会出现随后12个月金属价格的持续上涨，尤其是铜和铝的平均涨幅分别达25%和9%。 From historical data, the global manufacturing cycle is often followed by a sustained increase in metal prices over the next 12 months, particularly for copper and aluminium, with average increases of 25 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. 目前，大多数工业金属的库存水平接近多年来的低点，这意味着市场对金属的竞争将愈加激烈，价格上行的压力也将增大。 At present, the level of inventories of most industrial metals is close to the lows of many years, which means that the market will become more competitive over metals and the upward pressure on prices will increase. 高盛预计，铜价今年年底有望触及10000美元/吨，2025年或将突破12000美元/吨。铝价今年有望升至2600美元/吨，较目前价位仍有近10%的上涨空间，2025年均价预计将升至2850美元/吨。 （文章来源：证券时报·e公司）
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论