来源：国际金融报
比特币币价再创新高！
Bitcoin is worth more!
3月13日，比特币单价突破6万美元，市值超过1.12万亿美元。据《国际金融报》记者统计，比特币自2020年12月16日首度突破2万美元，到2021年3月13日冲上6万美元，3个月左右上涨了4万美元。
On 13 March, the unit price of Bitcoin exceeded $60,000 and its market value exceeded $1.12 trillion. According to the Journal of International Finance, Bitcoin made its first breakthrough of $20,000 on 16 December 2020, hitting $60,000 on 13 March 2021 and rising by about $40,000 for about three months.
对于本轮比特币行情，有分析指出，本轮牛市是高通胀预期下的产物，美国规模空前的1.9万亿美元财政刺激措施，将拉动社会需求的增长，推高商品价格，在一段时间内会抬升全球通货膨胀预期，这也促使全球大机构逐渐增加对于比特币的关注度和认可度，同时市场中的个体投资者的FOMO（错失恐惧症）情绪也比较强烈。
With respect to the current round of Bitcoin, it has been analysed that the market is a product of high inflation expectations, and that the unprecedented 1.9 trillion dollars in fiscal stimulus in the United States will boost the growth of social demand, push higher commodity prices and, over time, raise global inflation expectations, which will also lead to a gradual increase in the attention and recognition of Bitcoin by large global institutions, as well as a stronger sentiment among individual investors in the market, FOMOs.
比特币突破6万美元
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Bitcoin over $60,000
Coindesk数据显示，3月13日20点29分，比特币报出60139.07美元的历史高位。截至记者发稿，比特币币价跌破6万美元。记者注意到，自2020年11月中旬以来，比特币进入“长牛”行情，币价持续走高，涨势如虹。2020年11月18日，比特币突破1.8万美元，为2017年12月以来首次。
Coindesk data show that on 13 March, at 20.29 p.m., Bitcoin declared a historic high of $60139.07. By the time a reporter wrote, the price of Bitcoin had fallen by $60,000. Journalists noted that since mid-November 2020, Bitcoin had entered the "cow" business, and that currency prices had continued to rise. On 18 November 2020, Bitcoin had made a breakthrough of $18,000, the first since December 2017.
此后的2020年12月16日，比特币首度突破2万美元，日内涨幅高达6.51%，较2020年3月的年内低谷增长了430%以上，较2020年年初累计上涨近200%。首度突破2万美元后，比特币继续上攻，在2020年12月26日突破2.5万美元，并在12月27日冲上2.7万美元。
The following year, on 16 December 2020, Bitcoin made its first breakthrough of $20,000, with an increase of 6.51 per cent in the day, an increase of more than 430 per cent over the year-long valley of March 2020 and a cumulative increase of nearly 200 per cent compared with the beginning of 2020. After the first break of $20,000, Bitcoin continued its offensive, breaking the ground by $25,000 on 26 December 2020, and washed up $270 million on 27 December.
今年初（1月2日），比特币迈过3万美元关口，并在后一日就站上3.4万美元的高位，到1月8日便突破了4万美元。截至2021年1月8日凌晨2点14分，比特币币值报出40013.57美元的新纪录。
At the beginning of the year (2 January), Bitcoin crossed the 30,000-dollar mark and stood high at $34,000 the following day, breaking the 40,000-dollar mark by 8 January. By 2.14 a.m. on 8 January 2021, Bitcoin had a new record of $4013.57.
突破4万美元后，比特币价格在2月16日冲上5万美元大关，当日最高价格达到50584.85美元，再次刷新历史。《国际金融报》记者梳理发现，比特币自2020年12月16日首度突破2万美元，到2021年3月13日冲上6万美元，3个月左右上涨了4万美元。
After a breakthrough of $40,000, Bitcoin prices hit the $50,000 mark on 16 February, reaching a maximum price of $50,584.85 and refreshing history again. International Journal of Finance journalists found that Bitcoin had broken 20,000 dollars for the first time since 16 December 2020, and by $60,000 on 13 March 2021, with an increase of about $40,000 in about three months.
值得注意的是，比特币暴涨之下，暴跌也是常态。长期来看，在2013年的时候，比特币冲高到1000美元，之后大回撤到150美元。在2017年12月，比特币的价格上涨至接近2万美元。然而，之后的一年却遭遇了大跌，跌至近3000美元。
It is worth noting that bitcoin skyrocketed, and a sharp drop was normal. In the long run, in 2013, bitcoin hit $1,000, and then retreated back to $150. In December 2017, bitcoin prices rose close to $20,000.
在今年1月4日比特币也迎来大跌行情，在18时29分下探至29068.63美元，较1月3日34366.15美元的高点跌去15.4%。随后的1月11日，比特币币价再次下探，曾从近4万美元跌至3万美元，一天之内狂跌近20%。
Bitcoin also fell sharply on 4 January of this year, down to $290,68.63 at 18.29 a year, down 15.4 per cent from a high of $34,366.15 on 3 January, and then again, on 11 January, the price of Bitcoin fell again, from nearly $40,000 to $30,000, with a sharp fall of almost 20 per cent a day.
高通胀预期是主因？
High-inflation expectations are the main causes?
谈及本轮比特币牛市行情，火币联合创始人杜均对《国际金融报》记者分析指出，BTC再次突破历史高位，冲破6万美元，主要有三方面原因：
Referring to the current cycle of the Bitcoin cow market, the Uttar Pradesh co-founder, Dow, analysed the reporter of the International Journal of Finance and noted that BTC had once again broken past its historic high, breaking by $60,000, for three main reasons:
其一，美国1.9万亿美元刺激法案通过，新一轮放水开启，投资者对于之前通胀造成的货币环境收紧预期的担忧化解，此前BTC经历大幅回调，即是市场对于通胀持续的不乐观，当前政策落地，此前的过度下跌得以修正。
First, the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in the United States was passed, a new water release started, and investors'concerns about the tightening of expectations of the monetary environment caused by the previous inflation were resolved by the sharp retrenchment experienced by the BTC, namely, the market's lack of optimism about the persistence of inflation, the current policy setting and the correction of the excessive decline.
其二，Microstrategy仍在持续购入比特币，对比特币仍然保持看涨的观点，大型上市公司对于比特币的关注度和认可度还在逐渐增加，资金仍在流入BTC市场。
Second, Microstrategy continues to purchase Bitcoin, while Bitcoin maintains a rising view, and the attention and recognition of Bitcoin by large listed companies is gradually increasing, with funds still flowing into the BTC market.
其三，比特币今年不断创新高，市场中的个体投资者的FOMO情绪比较强烈，也纷纷加入了购买比特币的行列，给市场中注入的资金推动比特币上涨。
Thirdly, Bitcoin has continued to be innovative this year, and the sentiment of individual investors in the market, FOMO, has become more intense and has joined in buying bitcoin, pushing the money injected into the market for bitcoin to rise.
欧易OKEx研究院称，本轮比特币牛市是高通胀预期下的产物。前段时间10年美债收益率快速上涨时，市场认为美联储货币政策会比预期的更快发生转变，预测美联储会提前减少购买债券，甚至加息的时间也很可能提前。在此背景下，股市和比特币都发生了暴跌。
According to the EuiOKEx Institute, this round of Bitcoin is a product of high-inflation expectations. When the return on US debt rose rapidly over the previous 10 years, the market thought that the Fed’s monetary policy would change faster than expected, and that the Fed was expected to reduce the purchase of bonds ahead of time, and even to raise interest rates.
欧易OKEx研究院分析指出，市场对中长期通胀预期上升与三个因素有关：
According to the EOEOKEx Institute analysis, the expected increase in the market for medium- and long-term inflation is related to three factors:
第一，在10年期美债收益率快速上涨造成美股下跌时，美联储官员就迅速出来安抚市场情绪，发表声明认为10年期美债收益率的上升是“适当的”，反映的是经济的复苏，因此不会改变货币政策，打消了市场对货币政策转变的顾虑，市场通胀预期得到修正；
First, at a time when the United States stock fell as a result of the rapid increase in the rate of return on United States debt over a 10-year period, Federal Reserve officials quickly abated market sentiment, issuing statements that the increase in the rate of return on United States debt over a 10-year period was “appropriate” and reflected an economic recovery that would not change monetary policy, dispel market concerns about the shift in monetary policy, and that market inflation expectations would be revised;
第二，美国政策通过1.9万亿美元的财政刺激方案。规模空前的财政刺激措施，将拉动社会需求的增长，推高商品价格，在一段时间内会抬升全球通货膨胀预期；
Second, US policy has adopted a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus. Fiscal stimulus of unprecedented magnitude will boost the growth of social demand, push up commodity prices, and raise global inflation expectations over time;
第三，石油价格是影响欧美等国通胀的重要外生冲击因素。受主要产油国的限产政策，以及全球经济逐渐复苏的影响，石油价格在逐渐上涨，这将给欧美主要经济体带来通胀压力。
Third, oil prices are an important exogenous shock factor affecting inflation in countries such as Europe and the United States. Oil prices are rising, as a result of restrictive production policies in major oil-producing countries and a gradual recovery in the global economy, which will put inflationary pressures on major economies in Europe and the United States.
对于后市走势，杜均认为，要看全球市场基本面的预期是不是发生改变，“放水并不是一个可以持续的状态，如果全球经济出现拐点，这轮支撑BTC上涨的主要原因或将消失，请投资者密切关注宏观经济政策的变化”。
With regard to post-market developments, Dou agreed that it would be up to the expectations of global market fundamentals to be changed: “water release is not a sustainable state, and if there is a turning point in the global economy, the main reason behind the BTC rise will either disappear, and investors are invited to pay close attention to changes in macroeconomic policies”.
责任编辑：唐婧
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