Willy Woo 认为，比特币重新积累和复苏依然未变，并且在增强，从而创造了经典的价格走势与基本面背离。
撰文：Willy Woo，加密货币分析师编译：Perry Wang
: Willy Woo, Encrypted Currency Analyst, compiled by Perry Wang
在我上一次的预测中，比特币链上交易格局处于横向看涨的重新积累和复苏的结构中，没有熊市的迹象。此后比特币价格继续横盘整理，走势进一步看跌。而在同一时段，链上参数结构的指向却完全不同。
In my last forecast, the trading pattern on the Bitcoin chain was in a horizontally upswing structure of re-accumulation and recovery, with no sign of a bear market. After that, Bitcoin prices continued to be rounded up, and the trend further declined.
重新积累和复苏依然未变，并且确实在增强，从而创造了经典的价格走势与基本面背离。本期 newsletter （2021 年第 22 期）虽然比特币基本面与上一期没有发生很多变化，但我会花时间更详细地解释一下当前比特币的市场格局。
Reaccumulation and recovery remain unchanged and are indeed increasing, creating classic price trends and fundamental departures. While the current newssletter (2021 issue 22) has not changed much from the previous issue, I will take time to explain in more detail the current market pattern of Bitcoin.
2021 年 7 月 2 日比特币行情摘要 (当前价格 3.33 万美元)：
Summary of Bitcoin Performance on 2 July 2021 (current price $3.33 million):
宏观周期： 牛市完好无损，用户增长继续攀升。根据我在前两期 Newsletter 中的说法，宏观指标继续看涨。
Macrocycle: The cattle market is intact and user growth continues to rise. According to me in the first two issues of Newsletter, macroindicators continue to rise.
短期和中期（不超过未来两个月） ：价格与基本面呈现经典背离。市场没有注意到的是，长期投资者在默默吸筹。我个人预期这种供应冲击将会推动市场向上。我个人认为，自 2020 年第四季度网络经历了市场未注意到的、类似的供应冲击所造成的基本面背离以来，现在是最好的入场机会。
Short- and medium-term (up to the next two months): Prices are a classic departure from fundamentals. What the market does not notice is that long-term investors are snorting. My personal expectation is that such supply shocks will drive the market up.
重要提示：所有预测都是概率性的，短时间框架预测的历史可靠性大约为 80%。由于从长远来看，基本面占主导地位，因此更长期的预测更可靠，更短时间范围的行情走势容易受到不可预测事件和市场的随机性的影响。短期投机者应使用适当的风险管理。
详细分析
detailed analysis
了解市场当前形态
在比特币牛市中，价格总是会回落，以测试新买家的决心，我们称之为「将不坚定投资者洗出局」：
In the city of Bitcoin, prices always fall to test the determination of the new buyer, which we call "to wash out unswerving investors":
币价开始走低
The currency starts to go down.
新买家承压抛售
The new buyer's under pressure to sell it.
资深投资者低价吸筹
Senior investors are low-priced.
资深投资者一般财力雄厚，他们的购买力使得币价轻松反弹。这就造就了下图这样的价格 V 形走势。
Senior investors are generally well-funded, and their purchasing power makes the currency easily rebound. This leads to the price of V as shown below.
在抛售规模巨大的情况下，是不可能取得快速的 V 形恢复。 相反，抛售到市场上的代币需要时间重新积累。这导致了一个漫长的横盘行情，我们称之为筹码底部累积。
Instead, selling to a market for money takes time to reaccumulate. This leads to a long cross-section, which we call the bottom of the chips .
我们通常会在熊市尾声时看到这种规模的抛售，此时最大痛楚迫使不坚定的投资者出局，而精明的资金买手入场，在价格底部吸筹。
We usually see sales of this size at the end of the bear market, when the greatest pain forces unsettled investors out, and smart money buys in and sucks at the bottom of the price.
目前情况对于比特币牛市来说是非常独特的风景，因为前文所提到的正常动态被破坏。现在抛售比特币的萌新参与者是资金充足的投机巨擘机构，而吸收这些代币的买家则是资本较少的长期持有者。
The current situation is unique for the city of Bitcoin, because the normal dynamics mentioned earlier have been disrupted. The new players who are now selling bitcoins are well-funded speculative giants, while the buyers who absorb these tokens are long-term holders of less capital.
在比特币一路上涨至 4.5 万美元的牛市时，有前所未有的数量萌新巨鲸机构入场，他们的购买为看涨的比特币价格走势进一步增添了动力，但到 2 月时，这些「投机巨鲸」已经开始获利，之后向市场抛售了大量代币。
At the time of Bitcoin's rise to $45,000 in cattle, an unprecedented number of new giant whales had entered, and their purchases added further impetus to the upward price of bitcoin, but by February the “speculator whales” had begun to profit and then sold large amounts of money to the market.
巨鲸在 2020 年第四季度一直买入比特币，并在 2021 年第一季度卖出。分析代币的周转时间，我们可以看到市场中主要的买卖活动来自持有时间较短的代币，因此最可能的原因是新的投机巨鲸不断在买卖
到了 4 月时，上述的超卖抛盘压过正常的牛市买盘，迫使交易所卖出代币。 这种大规模抛售是我在预测今年第 19 期 Newsletter （5 月 18 日）中预测可能需要数月才能复苏的原因。更有可能会出现底部累积行情，而不是 V 形迅速复苏。
By April, the above-mentioned oversales were overstretched by normal cattle markets, forcing the exchange to sell its tokens. Such large-scale sales were the reason I predicted in my 19th Newsletter (18 May) this year that it might take months to recover.
虽然上面的交易流图显示抛售大潮已经消退，但我们确实需要认真观察吸入代币的持有者的自身质量。
Although the trade flow chart above shows that the dumping tide has subsided, we do need to look carefully at the quality of the holders of the inhaled tokens themselves.
我们下面的「Rick Astley」图表（注：在分析师的术语中，前英国著名流行歌星 Rick Astley「代表作：Never gonna give up」是长期交易者的原型），显示了长期持有者和投机参与者之间的代币流动。
Our next "Rick Astley" chart (Note: In an analyst's term, the former British pop star Rick Astley, "Representation: Never gonna give up" is a prototype for long-term traders), shows the movement of money between long-term holders and speculative participants.
很明显，长期持有者正在以强劲的速度吸筹投机性代币。现在就是一个等待游戏，直到这在价格行为中得到彻底体现，数据肯定地指明：筹码底部累积正在形成。
It is clear that long-term holders are sucking up speculative tokens at a robust pace. It is now a game of wait until it is thoroughly reflected in price behaviour, and the data clearly indicate that the bottom of the chips is building up.
供应冲击悄无声息地形成，将影响到行情
supply shocks are silent and will affect behavior
虽然链上格局信息一直指向横向看涨复苏行情，但价格走势并未反映这一点。
While information on the chain pattern has been pointing to a horizontal increase in the recovery, price trends do not reflect this.
在我看来，这是由于投机者手中持有的代币增加而造成的，投机者迫不及待地想卖出，而长期买家一直有耐心慢慢吸筹。根据技术分析，价格走势在投机者眼中是严重看跌，图表分析师指出比特币价格将进一步暴跌至 2 万美元，声称我们处于熊市中。而基本面并不支持这一说法。
链上参数非常看涨。供应冲击正在悄然形成，而市场却没有注意到。在下面的图表中，我重新混合了「Rick Astley」数据，这次显示的是强手（资深投资者）和弱手（萌新投资者）所持有的比特币的比率。
In my view, this is due to the increase in the tokens held by speculators, who are eager to sell them, while long-term buyers have been patient and slow to absorb them. According to technical analysis, price movements are grossly depressed in the eyes of speculators, with graph analysts pointing out that bitcoin prices will fall further to $20,000, claiming that we are in the bear market.
流动性供应比率是指极少卖出代币（强手）所持有的代币数量除以投机性参与者（弱手）所持有的代币数量
巨鲸抛售给投机者的代币现在被长期持有者吸收。我们当前所处的供应冲击水平，与比特币价格为 5 万美元时相当。
The coins sold by giant whales to speculators are now absorbed by long-term holders. We are currently at the same level of supply shocks as when the price was 50,000 dollars in bitcoins.
我们很少看到这些基本面背离，即代币从市场上悄然撤出，而价格行为没有反映这一点。市场突然发现代币供应陷入枯竭，可能只是个时间问题。一个很好的入场机会就在眼前。
We rarely see these fundamental deviations, i.e. the abrupt withdrawal of the token from the market, which is not reflected in price behaviour. The market suddenly finds that the supply of the token is drying up, which may be only a matter of time. A good chance of entry is at hand.
以下是对供恐慌的另一种观点，这是基于交易所可用的投机库存。
The following is another view of panic, based on speculative stocks available on the exchange.
供应冲击比率是代总币供应量除以交易所可用代币数量。由于交易所的代币供应量相对于总供应量的占比减少，这会加剧供应冲击（绿线增加）
需要注意的是，与交易所库存（第二张图表）相比，持有人的质量（第一张图表）更清楚地显示了这种特殊的供应冲击。交易者通常可以获取交易所库存，但随着更多散户投资者在牛市中期（这就是我们现在所看到的）入场，但交易所库存的指示意义会降低。散户交易者喜欢将他们的代币存放在交易所。
这让我想起了 2020 年第四季度时市场没有注意到的供应冲击。当数据显示长期投资者快速吸筹比特币时，专家们正在争论的却是比特币是否后疫情世界中的一种投资对冲。比特币价格随后暴跌，很快其与股票的紧密相关性出现了脱钩。
This reminds me of the supply shock that the market did not notice in the fourth quarter of 2020. When the data show that long-term investors are fast sucking bitcoins, experts are debating whether bitcoins are an investment hedge in a post-epidemiological world.
比特币网络增长速度创下 2021 年新高
Bitcoin network grew at a new high in 2021
Glassnode 在根据参与者的历史交互将钱包地址与单个参与者方面逐一绑定方面做得非常棒。从这些数据中，我们可以看到比特币网络平均每天新增 32,000 名健康用户，意味着 2021 年迎来新高。
Glassnode is doing a great job in tying wallet addresses to individual participants according to their historical interactions. From these data, we can see an average of 32,000 new health users per day on the Bitcoin network, meaning that 2021 will be a new high.
实体净增长（2 周变化量均线）。 即加入网络的新用户数减去离开网络（清空钱包）的用户数
我用红色标记了真正的熊市开始时（2017 年初）； 新用户停止进入，更高价格无法持续。而我们现在正在经历的链上参数格局并非如此。新用户正在利用这个机会逢低买入，入场速度创下 2021 年的新高。这成为另一个显示价格行为背离链上数据的示例。
I marked the beginning of the real bear market in red (early 2017); new users stopped entering, with higher prices unsustainable. This is not the pattern of the chain parameters that we are experiencing. New users are taking advantage of this opportunity at a low-buying rate, reaching a new high in 2021. This is another example of price behaviour that deviates from the chain data.
ETF 投资者在买进
ETF 是通过经纪账户中的份额获得比特币敞口的替代型比特币投资工具。它们在长期传统投资者和机构投资者中很受欢迎。
ETFs are alternative bitcoin investment instruments that are open to Bitcoin through their share in brokering accounts. They are popular among long-term traditional and institutional investors.
在这次下跌行情期间，新推出的 Canadian Purpose Bitcoin ETF 的持有量增加了 4100 BTC，与我们在链上看到的情况相符：长期投资者正在买入。
During this downturn, the newly launched Canadian Purpose Bitcoin ETF holdings increased by 4100 BTC, consistent with what we saw on the chain: long-term investors are buying.
现在让我们来看看灰度 Grayscale，它是最大、最成熟的 ETF，管理着整个比特币供应量的 3.5%。灰度投资工具的独特之处在于，当持股者出售份额时，它不会减少 BTC 持有量，而是以低于 BTC 市场的价格出售份额。实际上，我们可以根据灰度溢价来判断买卖需求。
Now let's look at Grayscale Grayscale, the largest and most mature ETF, which manages 3.5% of the entire bitcoin supply. The unique thing about the Greyscale investment tool is that when shareholders sell their shares, it does not reduce BTC holdings, but sells their shares at prices lower than those in the BTC market. In fact, we can judge the demand for the purchase by using the Greyscale premium.
灰度溢价是指代表底层 BTC 资产的份额的价格差异
灰度投资者从 2 月下旬开始出售其持有的资产，导致灰度 ETF 由溢价成交降至折价。在这次下跌行情期间，卖盘已转为买盘，再次呈现出价格走势的背离。
Grayscale investors started selling their holdings in late February, leading to a reduction in the value of the Greyscale ETF from a premium to a discount. During this fall, the sale was turned into a buyout, again showing a departure from the price trend.
轰轰烈烈的挖矿整合正在进行
如果没有对中国比特币挖矿产业大迁移发表评论，这封信就不算完整。BTC 价格的大部分短期看跌压力都归因于近期中国对 BTC 挖矿的禁令。
The letter would not be complete without a comment on the massive relocation of the bitcoin mining industry in China. Much of the short-term downward pressure on BTC prices is attributable to China’s recent ban on BTC mining.
由于中国在比特币挖矿网络中占据很高比例，这一禁令有效地消除了比特币网络上最后一个大的中心化区域，因此对网络的未来长期看好。
As China accounts for a high proportion of the Bitcoin mining network, the ban has effectively eliminated the last large centralized area of the Bitcoin network and has thus long been favourable to the future of the network.
短期内，随着挖矿硬件迁移到世界各地的其他地方，网络中的哈希率已经暂时下降。区块处理速度比正常情况慢了 3 倍。
In the short term, as mining hardware moves to other parts of the world, the Hashi rate in the network has declined temporarily. Block processing is three times slower than normal.
网络将在今天（在撰写本文时）补偿哈希率的这种下降，从而缓解网络的临时性减速。预计这将是比特币网络历史上最大的难度降低调整。 （链闻注：北京时间 7 月 3 日 14 时 35 分，比特币网络在区块高度 689472 迎来难度调整，全网度下调至 14.36T，下调幅度高达 27.94%，为史上最大幅度下调。）
The network will compensate for this decline today (at the time of writing) and thus ease its temporary slowdown. This is expected to be the most difficult adjustment in the history of the Bitcoin network.
挖矿难度调整到位后，将为比特币价格反弹和价格筑底打开窗口。
Once the difficulty of mining has been adjusted, a window will be opened for the rebound of Bitcoin prices and the construction of the bottom of the price.
这实际上是矿工的让步。当矿工被从网络中剔除时，幸存的矿工牢牢持有自己的硬币，因为他们知道，停业矿工的抛售压力已经消退并且价格已经到位。我们可以通过 Diffculty Ribbon 的压缩，直观地看到这种效果。这在历史上一直是价格底部的可靠信号。
This is actually a concession for miners. When miners are cut off from the network, the surviving miners hold their coins because they know that the selling pressure on the miners has subsided and that prices are in place. We can see this in the face of the compression of Diffculty Ribbon, which has historically been a reliable signal at the bottom of the price.
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