本文来自微信公众号：糖总总（ID：clairetangmedia），作者：糖总总，封面：视觉中国
Total Sugar (ID: clairetangmedia)spanclas="text-remarks" by Sugar General: "Nofollow" style=" text-descript: none; >< 这篇文章是最近的一点思考，结论很简单： This article is the most recent thought, and the conclusion is simple: 千万不要贪，把钱留住可能比赚钱更值得你关注。 Don't be greedy. Keeping money may be more interesting than making money. 看了很多资料，有新闻，也有旧闻，不小心写成了金融科普研究报告。阅读需要 7 分钟，说的都是不太顺耳的话，如果最近不想节省，大可不用看。 I've read a lot of material, news, and old news, and I accidentally wrote a financial science study. It takes seven minutes to read, and it's not easy to say, if you don't want to save recently, you don't have to read it. 如果你对信息流和钱流的逻辑感兴趣，建议你花点时间，慢慢读完。 If you're interested in the logic of the flow of information and the flow of money, you're advised to take some time and read it slowly. 主要讨论了两个问题： Two main issues were discussed: 1. 今天的我们 ，和100年前美国二十年代的年轻人，为什么很像？ 1. Why are we like us today, and the young people of the 20s of the United States 100 years ago? 2. 最聪明的人，为什么和我们一样会破产？ 2. Why are the smartest people as bankrupt as we are? 毕竟，双十一又要到了，在一个媒体明星网红都变电视导购、广告比电影还好看的时代，保持大脑清醒真的蛮难的。 After all, it's really hard to keep your brain awake at a time when media star red is turning into a television guide and advertising is better than a movie. 昨天，国际货币基金组织（IMF）连续第五次下调 2019 年经济增长预期，外部经济环境真的很糟糕。潮水退去，谁在裸泳，一眼看见。 Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (IMF) for the fifth consecutive downward revision of economic growth expectations in 2019. The external economic environment is really bad. 最近有两则新闻，放在一起看挺有裸泳的深意： There's been two news stories recently, and it's kind of naked swimming in it: 第一则是融 360 最新的《 90 后人群消费趋势研究报告》显示，90 后平均负债12.79 万，群体负债率高达 1850%，在消费贷款群体中占比达 43.48%，以贷养贷用户占比近三成。 The first is the latest post-90 Consumer Trends Study, which shows that after 90, an average debt of 12,79 million was incurred, with a group debt ratio of 18,50 per cent, 43.48 per cent in the consumer group and nearly 30 per cent in the case of loan users. 第二则是贾跃亭已于10月13日在美国主动申请个人破产重组，同时乐视网于10 月 14 日晚间公告，预计前三季净亏损 101.97亿元-102.02 亿元，第三季度净亏损 1.51亿元-1.56 亿元。公司目前正在积极要求贾跃亭对其造成的上市公司关联债务问题负责，切实解决其对上市公司构成的实际债务。 The second is that on October 13 in the United States of America, Jijonjin has volunteered to apply for an individual bankruptcy reorganization, while the Network announced in the evening of October 14 that it expected a net loss in the first three quarters of $1097 million - $10,202 million - and a net loss in the third quarter of $151 million - $156 million. The company is now actively demanding that Jajörting be held accountable for its liability in relation to listed companies, effectively resolving its actual debt to listed companies. 就像美国经济学家亨利·考夫曼说过的那样： As the American economist Henry Kaufman said: “破产的有两种人，一种是什么都不知道的，一种是什么都知道的。” “There are two kinds of bankrupts, one that don't know anything, the other that know everything.” 001 人间百年 社畜未变 蚂蚁金服和富达国际《中国养老前景调查报告》显示，这届年轻人是真的穷。 Ants Gold Clothes and Fuda International Survey of China's Old Age Prospects show that this young man is truly poor. 据悉，1.7 亿90后就有 4500 万人开通蚂蚁，也就是说每四个人就有一个人用花呗，花呗已经成为年轻人的破产姐妹。 According to the information received, after 170 million to 90 million, 45 million people have opened ants, meaning that one in four people uses flowers, which have become the bankrupt sister of young people. 双十一的时候，花呗给用户疯狂提额，2017 年每一个花呗用户平均提额2200 元，也就是说在”双十一“当天，蚂蚁花呗至少给 8000 万用户追加了1760 亿的信用额度。 In two-thirteens, the flowers raise users madly, with an average of $2,200 per user in 2017, meaning that on the Day of Two-Thirteen, ants raise a credit line of at least 176 billion to 80 million users. 最后，双 11 过后，年轻人都破产了。 Finally, after the double 11, the young people went bankrupt. 当你被贪欲所填满的时候，各种各样的最新金融服务就会在你身后露出微笑。 When you are filled with greed, the latest financial services of all kinds will smile behind you. 刚从学校毕业的五年内，我也真的很难存下钱来。当然，当时我也觉得很多很多都值得花。 It's really hard for me to save money in the first five years of school. Of course, I thought a lot of it was worth spending. 我记得刚去央视的时候，工资其实非常低的，但我也第一时间给自己分期换了当时最新的 iphone。 I remember when I first went to the audience, the pay was really very low, but I also gave myself the first installment of the latest iphone at the time. 确认这份工作之前，因为我学校是在上海，所以在北京待着实习也没有现成住处，都靠自己同时做两份实习和奖学金来支付房租。 Before confirming this job, because my school is in Shanghai, I have no place to stay in Beijing and have two internships and scholarships to pay the rent. 看似光鲜的中央媒体实习，往往也都没有工资的。 The seemingly plentiful central media internships are often not paid. 因为北京、上海包括南京都有可能的工作机会，毕业前一年内我经常自费跑三个城市面试。 Since there are possible jobs in Beijing, Shanghai and Nanjing, I often run interviews in three cities at my own expense during the year before graduation. 一个刚毕业的女孩子，自己觉得应该拥有的"标配"旅游、包包、衣服、鞋子、化妆护肤品和咖啡，都没办法不剁手。 A girl who has recently graduated, who thinks she should have & &quat; travel, bags, clothes, shoes, cosmetics and coffee, has no choice but to cut off her hands. 我当时想，我这么辛苦工作，拿到钱后去拥抱世界、投资自己、节省时间，有什么不对的？ I was thinking, what's wrong with working so hard, getting paid to embrace the world, investing in myself, saving time? 不仅是我，整体""中国式标配"的门槛已经变得越来越高了： It's not just me, it's me, it's & quot; & quot; it's Chinese & quot; the threshold is getting higher and higher: 小孩子的标配，是家教、外教和游学。 The children are marked as tutors, excursions and excursions. 女人的标配，是 Lamer、Dior 和LV。 The women's labels are Lamer, Dior and LV. 男人的标配，是年薪百万、车房和手表。 Men are marked with millions of annual wages, garages and watches. 老人的标配，是保健品、单反和出国游。 Older persons are designated as health-care products, monolithics and travel abroad. 直到我有一天突然发现，虽然我毕业后我的收入一直有增加，自己的信用卡却好像永远都还不完。 Until one day I suddenly realized that, although my income had increased since my graduation, my own credit card seemed never to end. 从没认真看过银行账单的我研究了一下，细思极恐。信用卡是按月复利计息的。 I've never looked closely at the bank bills, and I've studied them, and I'm afraid. Credit cards are interest-bearing on a monthly basis. 也就是说，如果你在最后还款日还清了全部账单金额，很好，你不需要支付任何的利息和滞纳金，能够享受到银行给予的免息期； In other words, if you pay the entire bill on the last day of repayment, it is good that you do not have to pay any interest and deferred payments and are able to enjoy the interest-free period granted by the bank; 如果你哪次当月的账单没全部还清，哪怕只有 1 毛钱，那么你也没有免息期了，所有的消费都要从你消费当天开始算每天万分之五利息，按日计息按月复利。 If you don't pay all the bills for the month, even if it's only 1 cent, you don't have an interest-free period, and all consumption starts on the day of your consumption at five-thousand-thousand-thousand-thousand-thousand-thousand-thousand interest per day. 简单讲，利滚利的复利曲线对别人来说是长期获益；可如果是债，等同你的复利曲线前面加了一个负号，加上时间的维度则可能越来越难翻身。 Simply put, a profit-rich compound is a long-term gain for others; but if it is a debt, it may become increasingly difficult to roll over with a negative mark on front of your compound curve, coupled with the dimension of time. 在假象繁荣上谈成长，有什么意义？ What's the point of talking about growth in the guise of prosperity? 从开始认真算帐的那天开始，我发现自己好像换了一个人。尽自己最大努力迅速解决负债，尽量理性负债。 From the day I began to make a serious reckoning, I found myself acting as if I were a different person. I tried my best to settle the debt quickly and try to be as rational as possible. 我突然发现，拥抱世界、投资自己、节省时间其实用不着花什么钱，或者说根本不是品牌广告里说的那样。 I suddenly realized that embracing the world, investing in myself, saving time was not spending much money, or that it wasn't at all what the brand ad said. 乔布斯说过，我人生中最喜欢的东西，一分钱也不用花。很明显，人生最宝贵的资源，我们每个人都有，那就是时间。对于一穷二白的年轻人来说，注意力和时间也是唯一的财富。 Jobes said that what I love most in my life is not to spend a penny. Clearly, the most precious resource of life, we all have, that's time. For a poor young man, attention and time are the only wealth. 花2分钟来简单看一下 100 年前的美国旧闻，就会更明白自己正处于什么样的结构之中。 It takes two minutes to take a simple look at the old American story 100 years ago, and you'll know better what structure you're in. 你并不孤独。 You're not alone. 旧闻就是历史，历史总是惊人地相似，真的像一面镜子。我们来看《 100 年前的社畜》这篇文章的回顾，很精彩。 The old story is history, it's always amazingly similar, really like a mirror. We're looking at the review of The Animal 100 Years ago. 20 年代的美国，构建了一个前所未有的开创性的社会结构。 In the United States of the 20th century, an unprecedented pioneering social structure was built. 从那时起，城市成为景观，消费主义迅速爆发，各行各业的富豪开始形成垄断，以洛克菲勒和摩根为首的八大财团控制了美国经济的各个命脉，他们盘踞在美国的东北部大城市，并大肆兴建摩天大楼。 Since then, cities have become landscapes, consumerism has broken out rapidly, rich people from all walks of life have begun to monopolize, and the eight major syndicates, led by Rockefeller and Morgan, have taken control of the lives of the United States economy, resting in the major north-eastern cities of the United States and building skyscrapers. △尖顶的克莱菲勒大厦是20年代纽约的标志性建筑 大量办公室岗位的增加，吸引了大量美国青年来到大城市生活。今天的中国青年一往情深的是北上广，美国青年一往情深的是纽约、芝加哥和华盛顿。 A large number of office posts have increased, attracting a large number of young people from the United States to live in large cities. Today’s Chinese youth are in the North and in the United States are in New York, Chicago, and Washington. 纽约的房地产开发商乐疯了，他们在城郊大批兴建住宅，忙得不亦乐乎，但是增加的住宅数量依然抵不上人口增长的速度。也正是这时，美国的第一批“社畜”出现了。 New York's real-estate developers have gone crazy, and they've built a lot of houses on the outskirts of the city, but the increase in the number of houses still does not match the pace of population growth. And that's when the first “breeds” in the United States appeared. 这些青年就跟今天北上广的同学们一样，在城郊的公寓楼里合住，每天搭着拥挤的巴士前往市中心的办公楼打卡上班。即使现实里他们只能做摩天大楼里的一颗小螺丝钉，纽约的神话依然让他们趋之若鹜。 These young people, like their classmates from the north, live together in an apartment building on the outskirts of the city, carrying crowded buses every day to the office building in the centre of the city to hit a card. New York's myths continue to haunt them, even though in reality they can only do a little screw in a skyscraper building. 没有人不痴迷城市给人带来的便利——只有在这里才全城通电，夜晚不再是一天的结束，而是自由时间的开始。 No one is obsessive about the benefits that cities bring to people — it is here that electricity is available throughout the city, and the night is no longer the end of a day, but the beginning of free time. 人们说这里遍地是机会，到处是黄金，所有人都像打了鸡血一样拼命工作。 People say there are opportunities everywhere, there are gold everywhere, and everyone works like chicken blood. 居伊·德波在《景观社会》中讲，城市的本质是一座造梦的景观。它们用高大的建筑物、斑斓多彩的灯光和广告牌、丰富的娱乐和服务将城市变成一座充满吸引力的景观，而你将被牢牢吸引在这儿，心甘情愿地为它消费，再为了消费心甘情愿地赚钱，再也无法离开。 According to Guy Depo, the essence of cities is a dream-making landscape. They turn cities into an attractive landscape with big buildings, colourful lights and billboards, rich entertainment and services, and you will be firmly attracted here, willing to consume them, and willing to make money for them and never leave. 这就是消费主义的魔力。 That is the magic of consumerism. 而刺激消费的第一步，就是打广告。 And the first step in stimulating consumption is advertising. 这其中最经典的案例当属可口可乐。最早的可口广告简直是虚假广告的鼻祖： The most classic of these cases is Coca-Cola. The earliest canoe ads are just the name of a fake ad: 大海报上赫然印着“理想的大脑滋补品！可治疗头痛，缓解疲劳！” 论吹牛，连脑白金都得叫它一声祖师爷。 "Ideal brain supplement! It heals headaches, relieves fatigue!" The big poster says, "Brain platinum is a great old master." 而后期的广告策划则动用心理学，把这种引导变得更加隐蔽。 Post-advertisement planning, which uses psychology, has made this guidance more invisible. 比如下图这张： Let's say here's the following picture: 海报上印着享受阳光沙滩的美女，暗戳戳地发出“上流白富美都喝可口可乐”的信号，跟今天奢侈品们打造上流印象吸引中产购买的手法，是不是差不多？ Is it similar to today's luxuries to create an upper impression that attracts Chinese buyers? 记得在新闻学院上广告课历史的时候，我们就讨论过，这些媒体中运用的心理学劝服手法，最早都是运用在一战二战之中用来打仗的。 Remember when we were in the history of advertising classes at the School of Journalism, we discussed that the psychological persuasions used in these media were first used in the war during World War I. 和平年代，需要攻克的也只剩大众的钱包了。 In times of peace, all that needed to be fought was the wallet of the public. 广告的本质，就是定义什么叫时髦，什么叫高贵，什么叫上流，先抛一个诱人的概念，再告诉你买了我的产品就能获得。 The essence of advertising is to define what's fashionable, what's noble, what's upper, to throw out an attractive concept and tell you to buy my product. 而今天汽车广告贩卖“家庭幸福”的传统也是从这时候开始：如果一个家庭能买一辆汽车，你们就能获得“全世界最高标准的生活”。 And today's tradition of advertising cars for “family happiness” begins: if a family can buy a car, you can get the “highest standard of living in the world”. 说到汽车，就不得不提刺激社畜们消费的第二招，分期贷款。让今天的社畜们忍不住剁手的花呗、白条，早在一百年前就被大佬们玩过了。 When it comes to cars, it is necessary to mention the second move to stimulate the consumption of the animals, which is a loan in instalments. Today's animals can't resist cutting their hands, white strips, which were played by the big guys a hundred years ago. 最早玩分期的是竟然不是华尔街，而是缝纫机。在成衣业不发达的时代，下图这样一台手摇式缝纫机，是每个主妇梦寐以求的。然而社畜丈夫们却很头痛：那时买一台缝纫机相当于花掉一家全年的收入。 The first stages were not Wall Street, but a sewing machine. In an era of underdevelopment in the garment industry, it was the dream of every housewife to have a handshake sewing machine. But the animals' husbands had a headache: buying a sewing machine was equivalent to spending a whole year's income. 为了提高销量，Singer公司的推销员想出了让主妇们先租用缝纫机，然后分期付款的促销方式。凭借这种玩法，Singer缝纫机每年的销售数量超出26万台，一跃成为行业老大。 In order to increase sales, Singer’s salesmen have come up with ways to get homemakers to rent sewing machines and then pay for them in instalments. With this method of play, Singer sewing machines sell more than 260,000 machines a year, making a leap to the head of the industry. 而真正把分期付款发扬光大的却是汽车。 And it's the cars that really boost the amortization. 通用汽车公司凭借着分期付款的营销思路，一举干掉了当时的汽车老大福特，也顺利将“汽车消费贷”推广到了全美国。到20年代中期，全美已经有四分之三的汽车都可以分期付款，大部分美国社畜只需付出不到一年年薪的钱，就能开上汽车，这让全美迅速掀起了购车狂热。到1925年，每6个美国人中就有一个拥有汽车。 By the mid-20’s, three-quarters of the country’s cars had been paid in instalments, and most of America’s social workers had been able to drive cars with less than a year’s pay. By 1925, one out of every six Americans owned a car. 对20年代的美国人来说，美国从来没有这么热衷赚钱。各种致富计划都在标榜：不要犹豫！投资你的现金！ For Americans in the '20s, America has never been so eager to make money. Various schemes for wealth are on the list: Don't hesitate to invest in your cash! 人人都渴望成功，都梦想着一夜暴富，而越是做白日梦的人越是好骗。先不说他们背着家里的房贷车贷消费贷，本来就没多少可支配收入，更要命的是，大部分社畜对金融一窍不通，根本无法分辨什么是诈骗，但这依然拦不住他们疯狂投资。 Everyone yearns for success, dreams of one night's richness, and the more easy it is for those who dream about it. Without saying that they are carrying home-based mortgages and consumer loans, there is not much disposable income, and, worse still, most of the animals have no idea what lies behind the money, but it still does not stop them from investing. 当然美国的繁荣是杠杆式繁荣。到 1919 年，美国的政府债务滚到 270 亿美元，债务/GDP比为 30 %，此后一骑绝尘。这两个数字在一百年后分别是22万亿与 105 %。 Of course, America’s prosperity is a leveraged one. By 1919, America’s government debt had rolled to $27 billion, with a debt/GDP ratio of 30%, followed by a dust-free ride. 接着，美国人迎来的就是一轮轮投机狂热与泡沫的破碎。 Then the Americans met a cycle of speculative fanaticism and bubble break-up. 1929 年 10 月 24 日，史称“黑色星期四”。这一天，美国金融界崩溃了，股票一夜之间跌入深渊，价格下跌快得连行情显示器都跟不上了。 On October 24, 1929, history called “Black Thursday.” On that day, the US financial world collapsed, stocks fell into the abyss overnight, and prices fell so fast that they could not keep up. 1929 年 10月 29 日，纽约证券交易所里的所有的人都开始疯狂抛售，股指从之前最高点的 363 骤然下跌了 40 个百分点，成千上万的美国人眼睁睁看着他们一生的积蓄在几天内烟消云散。从 1929 年 10 月 29 日到 11 月 13 日短短的两个星期内，300 亿美元的财富瞬间蒸发，这笔钱相当于美国在第一次世界大战中的总开支。 On October 29, 1929, everyone on the New York Stock Exchange began to sell out in a frenzy, pointing to a sharp drop of 40 percentage points from the previous peak of 363, with thousands of Americans watching their life savings disappear in a few days. From October 29, 1929 to November 13, 30 billion dollars of wealth evaporated in two short weeks, amounting to total spending by the United States during the First World War. 可怕的连锁反应很快发生：银行在疯狂的挤兑下倒闭了，工厂纷纷关门，大批社畜失业，很多人因还不起房贷而被赶出家门变成了流浪汉，这其中甚至不乏曾经成功的商人和银行家。一夜暴富变成了一夜暴穷，社畜们的梦想破灭了：他们不得不赤裸裸地面对在精神和物质上都一无所有的自己。 A terrible chain reaction quickly occurred: banks were shut down under a crazy run-off, factories were shut down, large numbers of social animals were unemployed, and many were driven out of their homes because they could not afford to pay their mortgages and turned into homeless people, even successful businessmen and bankers. One-night rich became one-night poor, and the dreams of the social animals were dashed: they had to be naked naked to have nothing of their own, spiritually or materially. 就像我们的 2015年，大量高杠杆的投资者完全不知道风险是什么。 Like ours in 2015, a lot of highly leveraged investors have no idea what the risk is. 我们心底默认，经济会一直高增长，房价会一直涨下去，股市突破 10000点不是梦。 The bottom line is that the economy is going to grow, house prices are going to rise, and the stock market is going to break 10000 is not a dream. 当借新偿旧的大雪球滚起来，就意味着我们不能让冬天过去，雪不能化。这也就造出一个个类似庞氏的局。 When you roll up with a new, old snowball, it means we can't let the winter pass and the snow doesn't melt. And it's a Ponzi-like game. 这里，就说到最具有代表性的聪明的人的故事了。 Here is the story of the most representative and intelligent person. 002 最聪明的人，为什么一样会破产？ 在这个时代背景下，年轻的庞兹来到了翻滚中的美利坚。而 1919 年作为庞氏骗局的元年，载入史册。 In the context of this era, young Ponzi came to America in a roll, and in 1919, as the year of the Ponzi scheme, it was recorded in history. 到今年，庞氏正好百年，而人间完全未变。 By this year, Ponzi is exactly 100 years old, and the world is still the same. 查尔斯·庞兹告诉投资者，他发现了一种发财的方法，即国际邮票和汇率中，存在着套利的机会，简而言之就是通过货币兑换，把 B 货币换成 A 货币，在 A 地用 A 货币买入 A 邮票，再到 B 地卖掉A邮票，获得 B 货币。 Charles Ponzi told investors that he had found a lucrative way of selling international stamps and exchange rates with a arbitrage opportunity to exchange B currency for A currency, buy A stamps in A, sell A stamps in B, and get B currency, in short, through currency exchange. 庞兹得出结论，经济越差货币越贬值的国家，我去买回信券就能套到更高的利润，最高利润可达 400 %。字里行间充满了经济学逻辑与国贸概念。 Ponzi concludes that the worse the economy is in a country with a depreciated currency, the higher the profits I get from buying back the bonds, up to 400% of the profits. The lines are full of economic logic and the concept of State trade. 庞兹开始大规模兜售自己的理财产品，投资 90 天，收益率 50 %，后来极端到 45天，50 %。 Ponzi started selling his property on a massive scale, investing 90 days at a rate of 50 per cent, then at an extreme of 45 days at 50 per cent. 庞兹不是一个人搞，而是培训了一大堆理财师一起搞，拉人头过来就给 10 %的提成，理财师拉下线理财师，还能再吃下线。 Ponzi isn't a guy, he's trained a bunch of financiers to do it, and he's got 10% of the money, and he's got the wirer, and he's got the wire. 堪称美国微商。 It's called a micro-business in the United States. △ 庞氏骗局创始人，查尔斯·庞兹本兹 从这个角度来看，庞兹开创性的把传销和微商的思路融入到拆东墙补西墙的传统套路中，玩出了新意，玩出了风采，骗局以他命名，实至名归。 From this point of view, Ponzi's pioneering incorporation of marketing and micro-business ideas into the traditional set-up of the east wall to fill the west wall has led to new ideas, to the play, to the game, to the trick, to his name, to his name. 高峰时期，当地75%的警察都买了庞兹的产品。所有这些人给庞氏带来了一座2000万美元的金山。每个人眼睛里都只有一样东西，每个人看起来都像一个钱疯子（money madness）。 At peaks, 75% of the local police bought Ponzi's products. All of them brought Ponzi a $20 million gold mountain. There was only one thing in everyone's eyes, and everyone looked like a money lunatic. 与主要从民间吸金的庞氏创始人庞兹不同，创造了人类史上最大650亿美金骗局的前纳斯达克主席伯纳德·麦道夫，是金融高材生，凭一己之力炸了整个美国犹太权贵阶层。 Unlike Ponzi, the founder of the Ponzi, who was the main donor of private money, former President Bernard Madoff, who created the largest $65 billion fraud in human history, was a financial expert who blew up the entire Jewish elite of the United States on his own. 他几乎只收跪着的钱，且极为挑食。打入犹太大佬扎堆的棕榈滩俱乐部后，其人脉触角更广，五湖四海，直达天际。他也几乎从来不见投资者，刻意保持神秘感。 He's almost on his knees, and he's extremely picky. When he hits the big Jew's big palm beach club, he's got a wider twilight, he's got a long way to go. He's almost never seen an investor, and he's trying to keep his secret. 他多年来对自己保持每年 10 %稳定盈利的投资策略讳莫如深，真相是，他 20年来，只是在摩根大通开了一个账户，存东墙的钱进去，拿钱出来给西墙。 The truth is, he's been keeping himself at 10% of a steady profit every year for years, and for 20 years, he's just opened an account with Morgan Chase, and he's got money in the East Wall, and he's got money out for the West Wall. 有人曾花 4 分钟推算、 4 个小时验证了麦道夫的收益数据，发现在当时金融市场的真实情况下绝对不可能实现，于是向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）整整投诉了十年，但是没人听。 After four minutes of extrapolation and four hours of validation of Madoff's earnings data, it was found absolutely impossible to achieve under the true circumstances of the financial markets at the time, and the entire ten-year complaint was lodged with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission , but no one listened. 麦道夫后来说，只要 SEC 稍微认真查一下账，就会知道到底什么情况。 Madoff later said that if SEC were to look a little bit at the accounts, it'd know exactly what was going on. 麦道夫案暴发之后，SEC 痛定思痛，在 2009 年发布了一份 477 页的报告，调查和反思为什么SEC在这么长时间内没有发现麦道夫的庞氏骗局，最后对8名官员进行了惩戒。 Following the Madoff case, the SEC was so critical that in 2009 it released a 477-page report to investigate and reflect on why the SEC did not find Madoff's Ponzi scheme for such a long time, and eventually punished eight officials. 要知道，麦道夫可是在一堆美国最高金融监管机构的董事会名单上，好友级别往上往上再往上，遍布四面八方。 You know, Madoff is on a board of top U.S. financial regulators, up and up, up and down. 一开始麦道夫只收他亲友小圈子的钱；再后来收一些经引荐的慈善基金；再后来收一些大型投资机构，包括全球各地的银行与对冲基金。 At first, Madoff received only money from his family and friends; later he received some of the recommended charitable funds; and later he received a number of large investment institutions, including banks and hedge funds around the globe. 金融时报援引知情人士说，汇丰控股很可能在麦道夫骗局中损失了 10 亿美金。 The Financial Times quotes sources that HCM holdings are likely to have lost $1 billion in the Madoff scheme. 前美联储主席格林斯潘也被麦道夫骗走了 30 %的退休储蓄（他买的基金投给了麦道夫）。他提起这件事时说，当初的回报看起来太舒服了。 Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan was also defrauded by Madoff of 30% of his retirement savings . He said that the return seemed too comfortable. 这场世纪大骗局在 2008 年底揭开惊人面纱的时候，主要是因为百年不遇的金融危机不期而至。 At the end of 2008, when this century-wide fraud unveiled an amazing veil, it was mainly due to the unexpected financial crisis that had not occurred in the course of the century. 流动性恐慌的时代人人自危，到了十一月，投资者要求抽资 70 亿美元，而此时麦道夫的银行账户里只剩不足三亿。 In November, investors demanded $7 billion, while Madoff's bank account had less than $300 million. 平民出身的麦道夫最初从场外交易 OTC 里看出了巨大商机。为了与纽交所的做市商竞争，他的公司作为先驱，应用了一套电子交易系统；麦道夫预见到电子化交易系统在 OTC 上的革命，这是他那个年代的人工智能梦想。 Civil-born Madoff initially saw a great deal of business from the out-of-the-box OTC. In order to compete with Newton's marketers, his company used an electronic trading system as a pioneer; Madoff saw the revolution of the electronic trading system on OTC, a dream of artificial intelligence of his time. 而这套系统后来野蛮生长，最后长成了纳斯达克。 And the system grew up savagely and eventually became NASDAQ. 除了电子化以外，老麦还摸索出一套商业模式，这套玩法叫 pay for order flow。 In addition to electronicization, McKenzie has come up with a business model called pay for order follow. 意思是作为做市商，麦道夫会给将交易订单 route 到他手上成交的券商一笔回扣，来吸引流量。他最后会向交易者收取一个极大的spread（价差），足以赚回回扣。这种情况下，交易者是不明情况到底真实价格是如何的，所以很可能overpay。 It means, as a marketer, that Madoff will give a kickback to the dealer who made the transaction order to get the flow. He will end up charging the dealer with a huge spread 简单说，就好像比特币8000美金的时候你自己买不到，有人收你1万美金让你买。 In short, it's like you can't buy it yourself when you're $8,000 in bitcoin. You're paid $10,000. 你自己认同这个价格，就买了，你自己负责。 You agree with the price, you buy it, you take care of it. 这种做法不道德，但完全合法，华尔街一直盛行。 This is immoral, but it is perfectly legal, and Wall Street has been prevalent. 靠着电子交易和 pay for order flow，麦道夫在华尔街如鱼得水。 By electronic trade and pay for order fly, Madoff gets water on Wall Street. 每次美国证券交易委员会询问，他都表情淡定地说不违法啊。 Every time the United States Securities and Exchange Commission questioned him, he said that he was not illegal. 麦道夫的前半生是一个典型成功的犹太人富一代，白手起家，做大做强。他喜欢鼓吹自己是纳斯达克的奠基人之一 —— 麦道夫的公司一度是纳斯达克最大的做市商，他也曾经是纳斯达克的董事会主席—— 也不算是完全胡说八道。 The first half of Madoff's life was a typical success of a rich Jewish generation, born with nothing but hands. He likes to preach that he is one of the founders of Nasdak & nbsp; — Madoff's company was once the largest marketer of Nasdak, and he was once the chairman of Nasdak's board of directors — and it's not total nonsense. 2008年12月12日，麦道夫被捕，并坦承11項罪名，被判150年最高监禁。 On 12 December 2008, Madoff was arrested on 11 counts and sentenced to a maximum of 150 years'imprisonment. 这里值得注意的是，麦道夫并没有走公开庭审的流程，因为这相当于把整个美国金融体系推上法庭公开审判。整个行业里有多少资产已经庞氏化？这个问题无人可答。 It is worth noting here that Madoff has not followed the public trial process, which is tantamount to bringing the entire US financial system to court. How many assets in the industry have Ponzied? No answer. 人们喜欢骗自己，也擅长于骗自己。 People like to lie to themselves, and they're good at lying to themselves. 美国第18任总统尤利西斯·格兰特，这位原本并不缺钱的总统因为退休后的奢华旅行逐渐耗尽了家产，在被“金融界的小拿破仑”（Young Napoleon of Finance）费迪南德·沃德以庞氏骗局骗走最后的 10 万美元后，格兰特最终宣布破产。 Ulysses Grant, the 18th President of the United States, who was not in need of money, was running out of his family property because of the luxuries of his retirement, and he finally declared bankrupt after having been deceived by the Young Napoleon of Finance by the “small Napoleon” 于是，无论看起来多弱智的东西，也总有人趋之若鹜。比如 2019 年处处遍布的沙雕骗局，币圈有 N 多模式币，教育圈有 1 分钟让小学生读完 10 万字的量子速读法。 So, no matter how retarded things look, there's always someone else. For example, in 2019, there was a sand sculpturing scam, a ring of N-modules, an educational circle of 1 minute for pupils to read 100,000 words of quantum speed. 放眼今天，资本热钱驱动下，有多少创始人和大佬其实是个演员。 Today, with the capital money, how many founders and bosses are actually actors. 大佬贾跃亭不是第一个，肯定也不会是最后一个。 Big Ja-joo is not the first and certainly not the last. 1 %的故事怎么讲都讲不完，雪球也会一直滚下去。 The story of 1 % can't be finished, and snowballs keep rolling. 我们学着保持清醒才是。 We learn to stay awake. 暴富不仅不易，连达到市场平均水平都很难。看到高于市场平均水平的宣传与保证，就要开始警惕。 It is not only hard to be rich, but it is difficult to reach market averages. When you see information and assurances that are above market averages, you have to be vigilant. 英文里有一个说法叫 too good to be true —— 看起来实在太美，以至于根本不可能是真事。 There's a saying in English, too good to be true -- it looks so beautiful that it can't be true. 消费金融并不是普惠金融，如果基本的金融概念都不懂，你花钱的行为都是在赌博。 Consumer finance is not inclusive, and if the basic concept of finance is not understood, your spending is gambling. Always live under your means。这是真的工作很拼命、很有钱却真的很节俭的朋友跟我聊这个话题时，给的建议。 Always live under your means. It's advice from a really hard-working, very rich, but really resourceful friend who talks to me about the subject. It‘s not about how much money you make. It's about how much you are left with. 不是胜者为王，而是剩者为王。 It's not about how much money you make. 罗斯柴尔德说过一句话： Rosschild said one thing: “要有极大的勇气和足够的谨慎，才能创造巨额财富。而要守住这些财富，要付出10倍于创造财富所需的才智。” “To be able to create a great deal of wealth requires great courage and sufficient care. To hold on to that wealth, it takes 10 times as much talent as it takes to create it.” 共勉。 Complimentary. 参考资料： 1.国际货币基金组织， World Economic Outlook (October 2019) International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (Octobe 2019) 2.融360，《90后人群消费趋势研究报告》 2. Beneficial 360, Post-90 Consumer Trends Study 3.蚂蚁金服和富达国际，《中国养老前景调查报告》 3. Ant Gold Clothes and Fuda International, Report on the Survey of China's Old Age Prospects 4.财新通，《贾跃亭欲破产重组，百亿债务和解？》 5.伯尼麦道夫维基百科 5. 6.陈达，《庞氏骗局一百年》 "Text-remarks" 6. Chanda, "100 Years of Ponzi Fraud." 7.阿哲，《100年前的美国社畜在干啥？》 Chul, what's the U.S. Animal doing 100 years ago? 本文来自微信公众号：糖总总（ID：clairetangmedia），作者：糖总总
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