原创 | 刘教链
周末BTC（比特币）趁势向着30日均线回归，现于69k一线悬停。7万刀以下加仓的机会窗口，和那蹉跎一生的岁月一样，过一天少一天，在每个纠结和拧巴的日子里，在软弱和彷徨的等待中，如奔腾不息的大江，东流而逝，一去不返了。
On weekends, BTC（ Bitcoin） returning to the 30-day average xff0c; now suspended on the 69k line. The window of opportunity xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; one day less xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xyxy; xyff0c; xff0c; xff0c; ; xff0c; never return.
看着嫦娥6号成功进行了人类首次月背土壤采样，不禁想起1971年8月15日，唯一在任期内接连完成6次载人登月壮举的尼克松总统，单方面对全世界宣布，关闭美元与黄金的兑换窗口。
xff0c
不再和黄金锚定的美元，变成了“空气币”。
The dollar #xff0c, no longer moored with gold, became "air currency".
20世纪70年代，欧洲各地开始拒收美元，甚至连乞丐都在帽子上写着“不要美元”。（《比特币史话》第十章第42话）
xff0c in the 1970s; United States dollar xff0c in various parts of Europe; even beggars wrote “no dollars” on their caps. xff08; Bitcoin History, Chapter X, 42 xff09;
与此同时，第一次石油危机发生了。1973年10月，当时以沙特阿拉伯为首的阿拉伯石油输出国组织成员国宣布，对赎罪日战争期间支持以色列的国家实施石油禁运。禁运持续了将近一年，到1974年3月正式结束。禁运期间，全球石油价格上涨了近300%。原油价格暴涨引起了欧美发达国家的经济衰退。
At the same time xff0c; the first oil crisis took place. October 1973 xff0c; the then member States of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, announced xff0c; and the oil embargo imposed on countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo lasted for almost a year xff0c; officially ended in March 1974. During the embargo period xff0c; global oil prices rose by nearly 300%.
刚好也是在1973年，基辛格成为尼克松总统的国务卿。在金本位制结束仅两年后。
It was also in 1973 xff0c; Kissinger became Secretary of State to President Nixon. Only two years after the end of the gold standard.
基辛格施展了他高超的外交手腕。首先，他说服尼克松总统在1973年10月的赎罪日战争（第4次阿以战争）中全力支持以色列取得军事胜利。第一次石油危机的发生，正是阿拉伯世界对此的报复行动。
Kissinger exaggerates his great diplomatic hand. First, #xff0c; he persuaded President Nixon to fight the war of Yom Kippur in October 1973 & #xff08; fourth Arab-Israeli war & #xff09; and fully supported Israel’s military victory. The first oil crisis & #xff0c; it was the Arab world’s retaliatory action against it.
但基辛格毫不畏惧。相反地，这也许恰恰正是他所要看到的局面。1974年6月，基辛格面见沙特国王，通过武力威胁（“达兰四号”入侵沙特计划），成功“说服”沙特与美国达成军售以及“石油-美元-美债”捆绑等协议。
But Kissinger is not afraid. On the contrary, xff0c; this is probably exactly what he wanted to see. June 1974 xff0c; Kissinger met with the King of Saudi Arabia xff0c; threatened by force xff08; xff09; xff0c; succeeded in “convincing” Saudis to enter into agreements with the United States for military sales and “oil-dollar-United States debt”.
其中，有关“石油-美元-美债”捆绑，沙特承诺：
Of which xff0c; related to “oil-dollar-dollar-dollar debt” tied xff0c; Saudi commitment xff1a;
第一，只用美元出售石油。
第二，将美元盈余投资于美债。
Second xff0c; invests a surplus of US dollars in US debt.
“石油美元”（petrodollar）作为一个合成词，也在同年出现在了世界经济历史的舞台。1973 年，埃及裔美国经济学家易卜拉欣·奥维斯（Ibrahim Oweiss）和美国前商务部长彼得·彼得森（Peter G. Peterson）先后提出了这个词。
“oil dollar” & #xff08; petrodollar） as a synthetic word & #xff0c; also appeared on the scene in the history of the world economy in the same year. 1973 & #xff0c; Egyptian-American economist Ibrahim Oves & #xff08; Ibrahim Oweiss & #xff09; former United States Secretary of Commerce Peter Peterson & #xff08; Peter G. Peterson #xff09; successively.
很多人对石油美元只知其一，不知其二。只知道是石油绑定了美元定价和销售，不知道更重要的是要把卖石油赚到的美元再回流美国去买美债，对美债形成支撑。这是一个闭环。把赚到的钱掏出来乖乖地购买美债，是闭环封闭的关键一环。
Many people know only one xff0c of oil dollars; do not know the second. Only oil is tied to dollar pricing and sales xff0c; more importantly, the dollar that sells oil is sent back to the United States to buy US debt xff0c; and it supports US debt. This is a closed ring. Draws the money and buys it properly xff0c; it is a key link to the closed link.
就像过去几十年捆绑在美元-美债循环上的中国制造。中国人加班加点生产袜子衬衫，卖给美国赚点儿美元，不敢吃不敢花，还要通过购买美债回流美国。打工人把工资“借”给老板，只是为了让不事劳动的老板不破产，好让自己别失业，继续打工、做牛做马？
Like China, which has been tied to the dollar-American debt cycle for decades. Chinese work overtime to produce sock shirts xff0c; sell some dollars to the United States xff0c; do not dare to spend xff0c; and return to the United States by buying US debt. Workers “lending” their wages to their boss xff0c; just to keep shopkeepers from losing their jobs xff0c; to keep themselves out of unemployment xff0c; and to continue working, cattle and horses xff1f.
别以为这样脑子“瓦特”的打工人很少。换个包装，很多人就会上当。老板拿出股权来，让员工花钱认购。老板开发个理财产品，让员工投资。这种种套路，各位朋友身边见的还少吗？
Don't think there's a lot of walts in your head. A different package xff0c; a lot of people fall for it. The owner takes out his equity to xff0c; lets the employee buy it. The boss develops a property xff0c; lets the employee invest. This kind of suite xff0c; how many friends see xff1f;
你以为老板是要带着兄弟们一起冲向市场去割韭菜，做起了分赃暴富的美梦。殊不知老板心里想的就是割你们这帮傻兄弟的韭菜。这样的公司里面，人事和内宣很重要。必须要给傻兄弟洗脑，才能让他们乖乖上套。越洗脑，越傻，越不可能在外部市场上有竞争力、战斗力。一群傻子怎么能有战斗力呢？偏偏这样热衷于把兄弟洗脑变愚的老板，最喜欢喊什么“狼性精神”，抱怨这帮兄弟们看着都像二傻子而不是目光敏锐的豺狼。其实老板心里门清，他的体系就是养傻子的，怎么可能养出来狼呢？
You think the boss is going to go to the market with his brothers to cut vegetables #xff0c; he's having a beautiful dream of getting rich. He doesn't know the boss's mind is about cutting the groceries of your stupid brothers. In companies like this, it's important to #xff0c; it's important to brainwash them #xff0c; it's necessary to get them to do the right thing. The more brainwashing #xff0c; the more stupid #xff0c; the less competitive and combatable it is in the external market. How can a bunch of fools be able to fight #xff1f; the more likely they are the owner of a fool who's brainwashing #xff0c; the more likely they are to cry "wolves" #xff0c; the complaining that these brothers look like fools rather than the sharp wolf.
所以，美国的心理战、认知战世界第一，媒体控制力世界第一，棱镜监视世界第一，好莱坞特效世界第一。
So #xff0c; American Psychological War, Cognitive War First #xff0c; Media Control World First #xff0c; Prism Watch World First #xff0c; Hollywood Special Effect World First.
洗脑的最高境界就是能让你拼命否认自己被洗了脑。控制媒体的最高境界就是能让受众拼命为其辩护说没有任何操纵和控制。电影特效的最高境界就是外族信仰者和行业专家都对这事儿信以为真还拼命打击那些敢于质疑的群众骂他们愚昧。
The highest level of brainwashing is to make you deny that you have been brainwashed. The highest level of media control is to allow the audience to defend itself without any manipulation or control. The highest level of film effectiveness is for foreign believers and industry experts alike to believe in this matter and to fight people who dare to question and curse them for their ignorance.
控制了人的思想，就控制了他的财富。控制了财富，就控制了他的行为。控制了行为，就控制了他的身体。控制了身体，就控制了他的一切。
Controlled a man's mind #xff0c; controlled his wealth. Controlled a man's wealth #xff0c. Controled a man's behaviour xff0c; controlled a man's body. Controled a person's body xff0c; controlled everything.
挣脱思想的牢笼，就能摆脱控制。解放思想，解放一切。而解放思想，只需要从一个非常简单而几乎没有成本的事情开始 —— 质疑。
Free from the cage of thoughts #xff0c; free from control. Free from ideas #xff0c; free from everything. Free from ideas #xff0c; start with a very simple and costless thing -- question.
「从来如此，便对么？」
has never been so #xff0c; #xff1f;
当一个人开始想这个问题的时候，思想牢笼就已经开始松动。当人人都敢于想这个问题，思想的枷锁就可能要被砸破。
When a person begins to think about this question #xff0c; the cage of thought is beginning to loose. When everyone dares to think about it #xff0c; the shackles of thought may be broken.
如果沙特把卖石油赚的美元都花光，都拿去投资中国，购买中国的先进武器、航天科技。中国拿到美元，也不去买美债，而是转手“借给”欠了美国美元高利贷的第三世界国家，让他们赶紧把高利贷还上，别被高息的美元周期拉爆了仓位，国家破产被收割。左边和沙特约定以后用人民币买石油，右边和第三世界国家约定用人民币还款就行。左边沙特卖石油赚了人民币可以继续投资中国和购物，右边第三世界国家可以和中国做生意赚人民币来还款。美元出局。
If Saudi Arabia spends all the dollars it earns on oil sales xff0c; invests in China xff0c; buys advanced Chinese weapons, space technology and technology. China gets the dollar xff0c; does not buy American debt xff0c; instead lends “lending” to third world countries that owe usury dollars to the United States dollar xff0c; lets them return the loan money to China xff0c; don't let the country lose xff0c; it's bankruptcy.
美联储这一轮加息周期为什么收割效果很不理想？甚至，美联储维持高息越久，美元越是回流美国，就越是加速它的出局，留下巨大的真空和让替代者上位填补真空的绝佳机会。在去年2023年4月24日教链文章《这次美元退潮不一样：三个补位者的历史机遇》对这个逻辑已经做过一定的阐述，未及阅读或已淡忘的朋友不妨点击标题重温一下。
xff0c; the more the dollar returns to the US & #xff0c; the more the dollar accelerates its exit & #xff0c; the better chance to leave a huge vacuum and place replacements to fill the vacuum. has already described this logic.
不要以为谁都敢于觊觎美元收缩期抢位子的机会。美军的威慑力不是吃素的。聪明人常有，而能用真理说服美军的人不常有。
Don't think that anyone dares to win a seat during the dollar shrinkage. The American army's deterrent is not vegan. Smart people often have xff0c; and those who can convince the US army with truth don't often.
99%的人看不透。1%的人里面，0.99%的人看透了，但不掌握真理，无法说服。只剩下最后0.01%的人，不仅看透了，而且掌握了真理。他们才是最终说服美联储的人。
Ninety-nine percent of people can't see it. One percent of them xff0c; 0.99 percent xff0c; they don't know the truth xff0c; they can't talk. Only the last 0.01 percent xff0c; not only xff0c; they know the truth. They're the ones who finally convinced the Fed.
一个美元的信仰者，一定首先是一个国家主义者（nationalist），而且是美国国家主义者。即令他的护照上不是美国国籍，他的精神也一定早已皈依了美国。道理很简单。美国作为一国，掌握美元的印钞权。如果毁灭和制裁能够有利于捍卫印钞权，那么它也一定不吝于此。
A dollar believer xff0c; must be, first and foremost, a nationalist xff08; nationalist xff09; xff0c; and an American nationalist. That is, he did not have American nationality on his passport xff0c; his spirit must have already converted to the United States. The case is simple. The United States, as a country xff0c; the right to print dollars. If destruction and sanctions can help to defend the right to print banknotes xff0c; then it must also be careful.
如果剥夺任何单一主权的印钞权，而有这样一种超主权的货币，比如比特币，那么，它的拥有者将绝不会选择任何有害于任何一国之生产力的做法。没收、封锁、制裁、战争，这种种有损于生产力发展的行为，都会被抵制。任何对生产力的摧毁，都将有损于该种货币的价值。和平主义，多元政治，自由贸易，将会是最优选项。
If any single sovereign right to print banknotes xff0c; if there is such a super-sovereign currency xff0c; e.g. Bitcoin xff0c; xff0c; its owners will never choose any practices harmful to the productivity of any country. Confiscation, blockade, sanctions, war xff0c; this kind of actions detrimental to productivity development xff0c; will be resisted. Any destruction of productivity xff0c; will undermine the value of that currency.
战争毁灭产能可以拉动经济增长的荒谬理论将会被唾弃。财富永远不会通过毁灭创造出来。产能越强，生产的东西越多、越好，人们就有更多好东西可以消费和使用，这难道不是有利于民众幸福的大好事么？问题根本不是产品太多了，而是钱太少了。钱为什么少了？因为美联储在抽水，竭泽而渔。它为什么要竭泽而渔？因为它自己不事生产，就想通过货币重分配，来完成财富重分配。
The absurd theory that the destruction of the productive capacity of war can boost economic growth will be rejected. The wealth of
为此，它不惜毁灭别人的财富。
For this reason #xff0c; it destroys the wealth of others.
任何金钱和货币，都只不过是抽象的概念和数字，本身并不是任何财富。产品，生产产品的机器，工厂，工人，以及拥有这一切的那片土地，才是真正的财富。
Any money and currency xff0c; it's nothing more than abstract concepts and numbers xff0c; it's not any wealth. Products xff0c; machines producing products xff0c; factories xff0c; workers xff0c; and the land that owns all this xff0c; it's real wealth.
一个超主权货币的所有者，一个比特币人，必定会最终领悟到，他们要保护的，是创造真正财富的那些国家，而不是宁可以毁灭别人财富为手段也要重分配别人财富的那些国家。这才是真正的知行合一，自己的认知才对得起自己手里持有的比特币资产。
The owner of a super-sovereign currency & #xff0c; a bitcoin & #xff0c; the #xff0c that they want to protect; the countries that create real wealth & #xff0c; not the countries that would rather destroy people's wealth as a means of redistributing others' wealth. This is the true one & #xff0c; it is their own perception that they can afford the Bitcoin assets in their hands.
而任何一个不再信仰美元，抛弃美元、买入比特币的人，即便他是一个美国人，他也在那一刻，不再是一个美国国家主义者，而升华成了一个国际主义者（internationalist）。
And anyone who no longer believes in the dollar xff0c; who abandons the dollar and buys bitcoin xff0c; even if he is an American xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; is no longer an American nationalist xff08; internationalist xff09;
最近我们观察到了一个绝佳的样本：特朗普。他为了今年11月份即将到来的竞选，彻底180度转换了思路，从一个美元的坚定捍卫者，华丽转身——至少在口头上——变成了一个积极的加密货币支持者，一个比特币的支持者。
We have recently observed an excellent sample of xff1a; Trump. He changed his mind completely at 180 degrees for the upcoming November campaign xff0c; from a strong defender of the dollar xff0c; gorgeously turned — at least verbally — into a pro-encryption currency supporter xff0c; and a supporter of Bitcoin.
让我们拭目以待。如果他果真像他说的那样转变了思想和立场，真的变成了一个比特币人，那么我们就可以继续观察，他是否会因此而在政治主张上，从一个美国中心的国家主义者，演变成为一个国际主义者。不是民主党那种制霸全球的全球主义，而是英特纳雄耐尔的那种国际主义。
Let us see. If he really changes his mind and position, as he has said; if he turns into a bitcoin & #xff0c; then we can continue to look at #xff0c; if he will make it to xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; from a central American nationalist; to an internationalist. Not the hegemonic globalism of the Democrats xff0c; but the internationalism of Intra-Yonel.
如果不久的将来，我们看到若干这种向国际主义者转变的案例，那将会是比特币发展史上的伟大胜利。中本聪的思想照耀全球，光芒万丈。
If in the near future #xff0c; we see a number of cases of this shift to an internationalist #xff0c; that would be a great victory in the history of bitcoin development. The idea of being a human being shines on the globe #xff0c; there is light.
号外：6.8内参：烧掉了250多枚BTC！
阅读更多内参，请加入刘教链的知识星球：
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(公众号：刘教链。知识星球：公众号回复“星球”)
(Public & #xff1a; Liu Congregation. Knowledge planet & #xff1a; Public #responsible Planet)
(免责声明：本文内容均不构成任何投资建议。加密货币为极高风险品种，有随时归零的风险，请谨慎参与，自我负责。)
(Exemption statement xff1a; nothing in this paper constitutes an investment recommendation. Encrypted currency is a very high risk variety xff0c; there is a risk of zero at any time xff0c; be careful to participate xff0c; be self-responsible.
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