北京时间3月15日，比特币上演“高台跳水”，一度跌破66000美元，最低报65580美元。就在前一交易日，比特币创出历史新高，逼近74000美元。CoinGlass数据显示，最近24个小时内，比特币市场有近25万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额8.12亿美元（约合人民币58.4亿元）。
On March 15, Beijing time, Bitcoin went into a “high-stage dive” at a time of $66,000, the lowest being $65580. On the previous day, Bitcoin had reached an all-time high, close to $74,000. CoinGlass data show that in the last 24 hours, nearly 250,000 people in Bitcoin market had been blown up, amounting to $812 million (approximately $5.84 billion).
近几个月押注美联储将放松货币政策的行为，帮助推动了加密货币的强劲反弹。而昨夜公布的美国2月份PPI数据再度超出预期，投资者正在重新评估美联储降息押注。
In recent months, bets on the Fed’s monetary-policy easing helped boost a strong rebound in encrypted currencies. The US PPI data released last night in February again exceeded expectations, and investors are reassessing the Fed’s interest-reduction bets.
有分析指出，在近期比特币价格创下新高，短期市场过热，杠杆率大幅上升等背景下，如果有部分资金获利了结导致行情回落，可能带来更大的价格波动与市场风险。
Analysis suggests that, in the context of the recent surge in Bitcoin prices, overheating short-term markets and a significant increase in leverage rates, greater price volatility and market risk may be associated with a fall in business when a portion of the capital is profitable.
比特币暴跌
北京时间3月15日，比特币比特币上演“高台跳水”，一度跌破66000美元，最低报65580美元。截至发稿，比特币报67970.7美元/枚，日内跌超7%。
On March 15, Beijing time, Bitcoin bitcoin fell by $66,000, at a low of $65580. By the time it was released, Bitcoin reported $6797.7 per unit, which fell by more than 7 per cent per day.
CoinGlass数据显示，最近24个小时内，比特币市场有24.8万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额8.12亿美元（约合人民币58.4亿元）。
CoinGlass data show that in the last 24 hours, 248,000 people in the Bitcoin market were blown up in a total of $812 million (approximately RMB 5.84 billion).
受此影响，美股加密货币股票盘前多数下跌，Coinbase跌超5%，MarathonDigital、MicroStrategy跌超4.5%，RiotPlatforms跌近3%。
As a result of this, most of the US-encrypted currency stocks fell before Coinbase, falling by more than 5 per cent, MarathonDigital, MicroStrategy by more than 4.5 per cent and RiotPlatforms by almost 3 per cent.
随着投资者纷纷涌入数字资产，比特币近期不断刷新历史最高纪录。就在3月14日，比特币盘中创出历史新高，逼近74000美元，相比去年末不足43000美元的价格，整体涨幅逾70%。
With investors pouring into digital assets, Bitcoin has recently kept up with its highest record. On March 14, the Bitcoin plate reached an all-time high of nearly $74,000, an overall increase of more than 70 per cent over the price of less than $43,000 at the end of last year.
这波比特币上涨行情背后的逻辑比较清晰。一是比特币现货ETF发行为市场带来更多增量资金。2024年1月11日，美国证监会正式批准了包括贝莱德等机构在内的11只比特币现货ETF申请。自上市以来，比特币ETF一直在迅猛吸金。FarsideInvestors数据显示，截至3月12日，比特币现货ETF自推出以来累计净流入101.003亿美元。这种流入速度充分反映了市场对比特币ETF的强烈兴趣以及需求，同时也推动现货比特币价格一路走高。
The logic behind the Bobitco upturn is clear. First, the Bitcoin spot ETF market brings more incremental capital. On 11 January 2024, the US SEC formally approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, including by agencies like Belede. Bitcoin ETF has been pumping money rapidly since it was listed. Farside Investors data show that, as of 12 March, the Bitcoin spot ETF had accumulated a net inflow of $1010.3 million since its launch.
二是“减半”等利好发酵。据了解，比特币“减半”是挖矿奖励减半，大约每4年发生一次，具体时间取决于比特币网络的区块生成速度。这将减少比特币的供应量，预计在2024年4月23日，届时区块奖励将从6.25枚（BTC）降至3.125枚（BTC）。
This will reduce the supply of bitcoin, which is expected to fall from 6.25 (BTC) to 3.125 (BTC) by 23 April 2024.
此外，美联储年中降息预期也为比特币价格疯涨“添柴”。高盛此前发布的报告显示，美联储将在2024年开始大幅度降息，至少降息四次，首次降息将在6月开始。
In addition, the Fed’s mid-year interest reduction is expected to “get fuel” for the skyrocketing price of Bitcoin. According to earlier Goldman Sachs reports, the Fed will begin to cut significantly, at least four times, in 2024, and for the first time in June.
在近期比特币大涨背后，亚洲投资者异常活跃。根据TheBlock的加密货币交易数据，亚洲国家的投资者约占比特币交易量的70%。
Asian investors have been particularly active behind the recent surge in bitcoin. According to TheBlock’s encrypted currency transaction data, Asian investors account for about 70% of Bitcoin transactions.
投资风险不容忽视
在价格不断飙升的背后，比特币或正在酝酿风险。
Behind the price boom, bitcoin is either gestationing risk.
有分析指出，在近期比特币价格创下新高，短期市场过热，杠杆率大幅上升等背景下，如果有部分资金获利了结导致行情回落，可能带来更大的价格波动与市场风险。
Analysis suggests that, in the context of the recent surge in Bitcoin prices, overheating short-term markets and a significant increase in leverage rates, greater price volatility and market risk may be associated with a fall in business when a portion of the capital is profitable.
美银首席投资策略师MichaelHartnett表示，在科技行业所谓的“瑰丽七股”创纪录的飙升和加密货币的历史新高中，市场正显示出泡沫的特征。
Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist of the United States and the United States, said that the market was showing bubble characteristics in the so-called “Standard Seven” record-high and encrypted currency of the science and technology industry.
此外，以NikolaosPanigirtzoglou为首的摩根大通分析师在周四写道：“我们认为，MicroStrategy以债务融资的比特币购买行为增加了当前加密货币涨势的杠杆和泡沫，并增加了未来潜在低迷时期更严重去杠杆化的风险。”
In addition, the Morgan Chase analyst, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote on Thursday: “We believe that MicroStrategy's debt-financed bitcoin purchases have increased the leverage and bubbles of the current trend in encrypted currencies and increased the risk of greater deleveraging during a potential downturn in the future.”
摩根大通指出，MicroStrategy今年已购买了10亿美元的比特币，2023年第四季度也购买了10亿美元。MicroStrategy的创始人Saylor此前解释说，为了获得购买比特币所需的资金，该公司使用了杠杆。
According to Morgan Chase, MicroStrategy has purchased $1 billion in bitcoins this year and $1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. The founder of MicroStrategy, Saylor, explained earlier that the company had leveraged funds needed to purchase bitcoins.
比特币涨势中的杠杆过多还引发了其他评论员的担忧。Galaxy首席执行官兼加密货币爱好者MikeNovogratz表示：“我认为目前市场杠杆过高。将会有一场洗牌，人们无法承受这么大的杠杆。”
Galaxy CEO and encryption fan Mike Novogratz, who says, "I think the market is too leveraged. There's going to be a shuffle, and people can't afford that kind of leverage."
浙江省区块链标准委员会专家马千里表示：“比特币的高收益伴随着高风险，对于专业投资人，可以持续研究并配置，但是对于一般的投资者特别是散户，需要谨慎对待。”
“The high returns of Bitcoin are accompanied by high risks and can be studied and configured on an ongoing basis for professional investors, but with caution for investors in general, and for dispersed households in particular”.
中国计算机学会区块链专委会执行委员高承实也指出：“比特币在总体上是依靠共识的扩大而将其价格支撑起来的，不像传统的商品还有可供分析的基本面存在，专业炒家之外的投资者，不建议投资比特币衍生产品，但可以长期持有一定比例的现货。”
The Executive Commissioner of the Specialized Committee on Block Chains of the China Computer Society also noted that “bitcoin, on the whole, is supported by an expansion of consensus, unlike traditional commodities with analytical fundamentals, investors other than professional entrepreneurs do not recommend investing in Bitcoin derivatives, but can hold a percentage of the spot over time”.
责编：叶舒筠
Entitled "Yashumi"
校对：冉燕青
This post is part of our special coverage Thailand Protests 2011.
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