华夏时报(www.chinatimes.net.cn)记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)
7月20日午间,BTC短线下跌,跌破3万美元关口,现报29623.68美元,日内跌幅6.13%。数据显示,过去24小时全网爆仓4.26亿美元,约合27.6亿人民币。
On the afternoon of 20 July, BTC fell short and broke the 30,000-dollar gate, now reporting $29,623.68, with a 6.13 per cent fall in the day. Data show that $426 million, equivalent to approximately 2.76 billion yuan, has been reported in the last 24 hours.
《华夏时报》记者了解到,7月19日,加密货币资产管理公司灰度迎来了历史上最大规模的比特币单日解锁,解锁大约16000枚BTC。而整个7月,总共有价值约为41000个BTC的GBTC将被解锁,预估近14亿美元。
The Washington Times journalist learned that, on 19 July, crypto-currency asset management reached the largest single day in history, unlocking about 16,000 BTCs. Throughout July, a total of about 41,000 BTCs will be unlocked, estimated at nearly $1.4 billion.
“比特币的下跌是正常的,与GBTC解锁的关系并不大,近期美国股市也在整体下跌,币市也在一直往低走,这是由多方因素共同造成的,今天的下跌只是最近币市低迷的又一个表现。”美国力研咨询公司创始人谷燕西向《华夏时报》记者表示
“The fall in bitcoin is normal, not so much connected to the break-up of the GBTC, and the recent decline in the United States stock market as a whole, as well as in the currency market, is due to a combination of multiple factors, and today it is just another manifestation of the recent downturn in the currency market.” Yanxi Kana, the founder of R.R.R.A., said to the Washington Times journalist
OECD区块链政策专家委员会委员王娟向本报记者表示,在一段时间的疯涨之后,全球金融监管机构开始对BTC等加密货币采取强监管态度,包括我国政府和其他国家对加密货币挖矿活动的禁止等政策,目前对BTC来说,还没有出现更大的利好能够反转当前下行的局势。
Wang Jun, a member of the ODS block chain policy expert committee, told journalists in this newspaper that, after a period of madness, global financial regulators have begun to adopt a strong regulatory attitude towards encrypted currencies such as BTC, including policies such as the ban on encrypted currency mining by my Government and other countries, and that for BTC there has not yet been much more profitable to reverse the current downward situation.
7月迎灰度大规模解锁
王娟表示,以往来说,在灰度解锁的时候,在释放流动性的同时,也会有买盘情况的出现。这一次灰度解锁,刚好遇到BTC下跌,这个情况会加重市场逃离的情绪,进一步恶化下跌的行情。灰度持续的负溢价,目前是没有改变的,在很长一段时间灰度都没有增持任何一种加密货币,这也表现了机构正在通过观望和避险的态度来处理当下市场下行的趋势。
Wang Xing said that, in the past, when the greyscale was unlocked, there was also a buyout at the same time as the liquidity was released. This time, when the greyscale was unlocked, it happened when the BTC fell, adding to the feelings of market flight and worsening the downward movement.
据了解,灰度旗下的Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC),是美国最大的可以通过证券交易所购买比特币的投资工具。投资GBTC的出资方式有两种,分别是现金出资和实物出资(比特币),锁定期为6个月,此外,灰度会收取2%的管理费,管理费直接从持仓的比特币数量中扣除。
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), under the Greyscale flag, is known to be the largest investment instrument in the United States that can buy bitcoin through a stock exchange. There are two ways to finance investment in GBTC: cash and in-kind contributions (bitcoin), which are regularly locked for six months. In addition, Greyscale collects 2% of the overhead charge, which is deducted directly from the amount of bitcoins in storage.
此前,GBTC一直存在着高溢价套利空间,2020年12月21日GBTC的溢价达到最高纪录40.2%,这也是GBTC一直备受关注的原因之一,根据摩根大通数据,灰度比特币信托在2020年12月创纪录地流入了20亿美元。但自今年3月,灰度关闭GBTC信托募资后,GBTC溢价开始转负,5月中旬达到-21.23%最高负溢价。
Previously, GBTC had a high premium arbitrage, with a record 40.2% premium on GBTC on 21 December 2020, and this was one of the reasons for the concern that GBTC had been receiving, according to Morgan Chase, that the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust had reached a record $2 billion in December 2020. But since March of this year, following the Greyscale closure of the GBTC Trust, the GBTC premium began to shift, reaching a maximum negative premium of 21.23% in mid-May.
(图片来源:bybt.com)
7月GBTC的大规模解锁引发了业内的热烈讨论。记者了解到,包括摩根大通策略师在内的一些分析师认为,合格投资者将在7月解锁期后出售至少一部分所持GBTC资产,从而进一步压低BTC市场目前的下行趋势。
The GBTC massive unlocking in July triggered a lively debate in the industry. Journalists learned that some analysts, including Morgan Chase strategists, believed that eligible investors would sell at least some of their GBTC assets after the July unlocking period, further reducing the current downward trend in the BTC market.
摩根大通认为,比特币市场在出现长期看涨信号之前,当灰度比特币信托基金中的BTC解锁之后,价格有可能进一步下跌并触及25000美元区间水平。摩根大通首席策略师Nikolas Panigirtzoglou在报告中表示,“我们仍然不会放弃对比特币和加密市场更普遍的负面展望。尽管有所改善,但我们的信号总体上仍然看跌。”
According to Morgan Chase, prices could fall further and reach $25,000 between the BTCs in the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust until there were long-term signs of upswing in the Bitcoin market. Morgan Chase's chief strategist, Nikolas Panigirtzoglou, said in his report, “We will not abandon the more widespread negative outlook for the Bitcoin and encryption markets. Despite improvements, our signals are still generally down.”
谷燕西则向记者表示,最近加密数字货币市场的下跌同GBTC的解锁没有直接关系。“关键要看这些份额的持有者对现在的市场如何判断,对于这些持有者来说,他们进行短期操作的可能性比较小,而长期持有的概率更大。”谷燕西如是说。
Gua Yanxi, for its part, said to journalists that the recent decline in the crypto-digital money market had no direct bearing on the GBTC unlocking. “It depends on how the holders of these shares judge the current market, for which they are less likely to operate in the short term and more likely to hold them in the long term.” Gua Yanxi, for example, said.
灰度首席执行官Michael Sonnenshein在接受外媒采访时表示,投资者购买GBTC股票,会考虑中长期的前景。因此,他们可能不想在解锁后立即抛售所持资产。
In an interview with the foreign media, Greyscale CEO Michael Sonnensheein stated that investors would take into account medium- and long-term prospects for buying GBTC stocks. Therefore, they might not want to sell the assets immediately after unlocking them.
国内监管加强,多家媒体平台停运整改
National regulation strengthened and various media platforms suspended
“随着国内区块链技术的重要性愈发凸显,相关企业的规范化、正规化是区块链产业走向常态化和快速发展之路的必然选择。”欧科云链研究院高级研究员王海峰向记者表示。
“As the importance of the technology of the domestic block chain becomes more evident, the regularization and formalization of the firms concerned is the inevitable option for the sector chain industry to move towards normality and rapid development.” Wang Haif, Senior Researcher at the Okoun Chain Institute, expressed to journalists.
今年5月以来,我国对于虚拟货币相关产业的监管不断趋严,相关媒体平台也相继进行整改。7月19日,区块链及数字资产行情资讯平台“鸵鸟区块链”宣布,遵循相关部门的要求,从2021年7月19日起暂停网站及App的新用户注册,并暂停个人账号发布内容的功能。
Since May of this year, the virtual money-related industry has become more regulated and the media platforms have been overhauled. On July 19, the Block Chain and Digital Assets Information Platform, the Ostrich Block Chain, announced that the registration of new users of the website and App would be suspended as of July 19, 2021, and the personal account postings would be suspended.
鸵鸟区块链表示,鸵鸟区块链将删除平台违规账号和内容,深入自查自纠,全面加强网站内容发布审核和账号管理,由鸵鸟区块链团队发起创作的内容和行业技术信息,将持续发布。
The ostrich block chain indicates that the ostrich block chain will remove the platform's default numbers and contents, conduct in-depth self-checking, enhance website content release clearances and account number management in a comprehensive manner, and continue to publish the content and technical information generated by the ostrich block chain team.
天眼查信息显示,鸵鸟区块链所属公司上海以北科技有限公司成立于2015年3月,公司法定代表人陈强,曾获中科创星、七海资本等投资方投资。
According to SkyEnd, the company of Ostrich Block Chains North of Shanghai Technology Ltd. was established in March 2015 and its statutory representative, Chen Keung, has received investment from investors such as Sino-Sink Star and Seven Sea Capital.
《华夏时报》记者注意到,近期不只“鸵鸟区块链”一家媒体平台暂停运营。7月15日,加密货币内容社区“币世界”宣布,将遵照央行营管部文件涉及虚拟货币领域的条款,积极配合监管部门的行业整顿要求,即日起币世界App和网站在中国境内停止运营。
On July 15, an encrypted currency content community, the Currency World, announced that it would actively cooperate with the regulatory sector’s industry restructuring requirements, as soon as the world’s App and website ceased to operate in China, in compliance with the provisions of the Central Bank’s regulatory department’s document on virtual currency.
天眼查信息显示,币世界关联公司北京币世界网络科技有限公司成立于2017年8月,法定代表人谭晨辉,注册资本125万人民币,曾获得数轮融资,过往投资方包括顺为资本、启赋资本、真格基金等。
According to SkyEnd, in August 2017, the world-associated company Beijing Dollar World Network Science and Technology Ltd. was established with a statutory representative, Tan Morning Fai, registered capital of RMB 1.25 million, and has received several rounds of financing, with previous investors including submissive capital, capital start-up, real-eligibility funds, etc.
此外,今年6月,八哥谈币、超级比特币、区块链威廉等币圈大V微博被封禁,相关页面显示,该账号因被投诉违反法律法规和《微博社区公约》的相关规定,现已无法查看。
In addition, in June of this year, Huge V Weibo, the coins of Chico, the superbitcoin and the block chain of William, were banned, and the relevant page shows that the account number is now inaccessible because of complaints of violations of the laws and regulations and the provisions of the Convention on the Community of Weibo.
看懂研究院研究员张雪峰向《华夏时报》记者表示,加密货币相关媒体平台停止运营和金融监管政策有关。加密货币市场是一种泡沫性很大的市场,这里面更多的是投机行为。而且由于加密货币市场的交易监管不透明性,会导致里面可能已经形成了一些既得利益集团,对于广大参与市场的中小投资者是很不利的。
Encrypt money markets are a bubble market, which is more speculative. And because of the lack of transparency in the regulation of transactions in the encrypt money markets, they may have created vested interests, to the detriment of the large number of small and medium-sized investors participating in the markets.
张雪峰认为,由于加密货币可以加杠杆,且风险较大,容易引发系统性金融风险。而相关的媒体,其实就是虚拟货币交易平台的“传声筒”,不论市场涨跌,不论是有利空消息还是利好消息,只要有相关新闻曝光出来,每次都会吸引到一些新的“投机者”入局,媒体是整个产业链上的一环,而相关媒体停止运营,有利于打击虚拟货币市场的交易。
Zhang Snowfeng argues that the risk of systemic financial risk is high because of the leverage and risk of encrypted money. The media in question, in turn, are virtual money-trading platforms, which, regardless of whether the market goes up or down, be it favourable news or good news, attracts new “speculators” whenever the news comes out, and the media is part of the entire industry chain, and the media ceases to operate, helping to combat transactions in virtual money markets.
责任编辑:徐芸茜 主编:公培佳
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