金本位制就是以黃金為本位幣的貨幣制度。在金本位制下,或每單位的貨幣價值等同於若幹重量的黃金(即貨幣含金量);當不同國家使用金本位時,國家之間的匯率由它們各自貨幣的含金量之比--金平價(Gold Parity)來決定。金本位制於19世紀中期開始盛行。在歷史上,曾有過三種形式的金本位制:金幣本位制、金塊本位制、金匯兌本位制。其中金幣本位制是最典型的形式,就狹義來說,金本位制即指該種貨幣制度。
gold base is is ; 這是金本位貨幣制度的最早形式,亦稱為古典的或純粹的金本位制,盛行於1880一1914年間。自由鑄造、自由兌換及黃金自由輸出入是該貨幣制度的三大特點。在該制度下,各國政府以法律形式規定貨幣的含金量,兩國貨幣含金量的對比即為決定匯率基礎的鑄幣平價。黃金可以自由輸出或輸入國境,併在輸出入過程形成鑄幣一物價流動機制,對匯率起到自動調節作用。這種制度下的匯率,因鑄幣平價的作用和受黃金輸送點的限制,波動幅度不大。
這是一種以金塊辦理國際結算的變相金本位制,亦稱金條本位制。在該制度下,由國家儲存金塊,作為儲備;流通中各種貨幣與黃金的兌換關係受到限制,不再實行自由兌換,但在需要時,可按規定的限制數量以紙幣向本國中央銀行無限制兌換金塊。可見,這種貨幣制度實際上是一種附有限制條件的金本位制。
This is a modified version of
這是一種在金塊本位制或金幣本位制國家保持外匯,准許本國貨幣無限制地兌換外匯的金本位制。在該制度下,國內只流通銀行券,銀行券不能兌換黃金,只能兌換實行金塊或金本位制國家的貨幣,國際儲備除黃金外,還有一定比重的外匯,外匯在國外才可兌換黃金,黃金是最後的支付手段。實行金匯兌本位制的國家,要使其貨幣與另一實行金塊或金幣本位制國家的貨幣保持固定比率,通過無限制地買賣外匯來維持本國貨幣幣值的穩定。
金塊本位制和金匯兌本位制這兩種貨幣制度在1970年代基本消失。
In the 1970s, the gold-plate system and the gold-transfer-based system largely disappeared. 金幣本位制消除了複本位制下存在的價格混亂和貨幣流通不穩的弊病,保證了流通中貨幣對本位幣金屬黃金不發生貶值,保證了世界市場的統一和外匯行市的相對穩定,是一種相對穩定的貨幣制度。
, , and 金塊本位制和金匯兌本位制是在金本位制的穩定性因素受到破壞後出現的兩種不健全的金本位制。這兩種制度下,雖然都規定以黃金為貨幣本位,但只規定貨幣單位的含金量,而不鑄造金幣,實行銀行券流通。所不同的是,在金塊本位制下,銀行券可按規定的含金量在國內兌換金塊,但有數額和用途等方面的限制(如英國 1925年規定在1700英鎊以上,法國1928年規定在215000法郎以上方可兌換),黃金集中存儲於本國政府。而在金匯兌本位制下,銀行券在國內不兌換金塊,只規定其與實行金本位制國家貨幣的兌換比率,先兌換外匯,再以外匯兌換黃金,並將準備金存於該國。
在歷史上,自從英國於1816年率先實行金本位制以後,到1914年第一次世界大戰以前,主要資本主義國家都實行了金本位制,而且是典型的金本位制——金幣本位制。
Historically, countries implemented the gold standard prior to World War I in 1914.
1914年第一次世界大戰爆發後,各國為了籌集龐大的軍費,紛紛發行不兌現的紙幣,禁止黃金自由輸出,金本位制隨之告終。
After the first World War of 1914, the gold system ended with the issuance of undisclosed notes to raise large military costs and to ban the free export of gold.
第一次世界大戰以後,在1924-1928年,資本主義世界曾出現了一個相對穩定的時期,主要資本主義國家的生產都先後恢復到大戰前的水平,並有所發展。各國企圖恢復金本位制。但是,由於金鑄幣流通的基礎已經遭到削弱,不可能恢復典型的金本位制。當時除美國以外,其他大多數國家只能實行沒有金幣流通的金本位制,這就是金塊本位制和金匯兌本位制。
After World War I, in 1924-1928, the capitalist world experienced a period of relative stability in which the production of major capitalist countries was restored to pre-war levels and developed. Countries tried to restore the gold standard. But, since the base of gold currency circulation had been weakened, it was not possible to restore the typical gold standard.
金塊本位制和金匯兌本位制由於不具備金幣本位制的一系列特點,因此,也稱為不完全或殘缺不全的金本位制。該制度在1929-1933年的世界性經濟大危機的衝擊下,也逐漸被各國放棄,都紛紛實行了不兌現信用貨幣制度。
and the gold currency system 第二次世界大戰後,建立了以美元為中心的國際貨幣體系,這實際上是一種金匯兌本位制,美國國內不流通金幣,但允許其他國家政府以美元向其兌換黃金,美元是其他國家的主要儲備資產。但其後受美元危機的影響,該制度也逐漸開始動搖,至1971年8月美國政府停止美元兌換黃金,並先後兩次將美元貶值後,這個殘缺不全的金匯兌本位制也崩潰了。
After World War II, centred on . 金本位制通行了約100年,其崩潰的主要原因有:
The main causes of the collapse of the gold standard, which has been in operation for about 100 years, are: 金本位制度的崩潰,對國際金融乃至世界經濟產生了巨大的影響:
The collapse of the gold standard system has had a tremendous impact on and on the world economy: 美國次貸危機引發本輪金融危機後,對於目前美元主導的全球經濟秩序的質疑空前升溫。當今全球約三分之二的資產是以美元來計價的,而美國現在採取的救市政策措施似乎不可避免導致美元貶值。一些有名的主權財富基金投資專家將資金從政府債券中抽離,轉投到黃金市場;以為“未來的嚴重通脹將幾乎不可避免的導致政府債券崩潰,符合邏輯的結論是我們最終回到某種形式的金本位制度。”
quotes 2%E2%E2%E[E]2%Ehref2%E[E] 正是基於對現行國際貨幣體系的不滿,以及圍繞國際貨幣問題的各種陰謀論的抬頭,使得金本位制再度受到關註。有些學者提出世界貨幣格局應返金本位制(Gold Standard),提議“重建佈雷頓森林體系”或“新金本位制”,以求形成穩定的國際貨幣體制。典型的設想是全球所有國家同時加入金本位制聯盟,來一致確定其貨幣相對於黃金的穩定關係。
It is on the basis of the dissatisfaction with the current international monetary system and the rise of conspiracy theories surrounding international currency issues that the gold system is again under consideration. Some scholars have proposed “rebuilding or “New gold standard system” in order to form a stable international monetary system. 支持者認為復歸金本位制有一系列優越性。一是金本位貨幣自身具有“剛性”價值;現行的信用貨幣不僅容易貶值,而且可能導致虛擬金融財富無節制膨脹;二是發達國家難以通過發行紙幣來進行國際剝削,因此比較公正;三是各國貨幣不再有匯率的困擾,不存在匯率操縱和套匯牟利的可能,國際投資和貿易體系將更有效率,更加公平。
Supporters believe that there is a range of benefits from a gold-based system. One is that the gold-based currency itself has a “hard” value; the other is < 6% B1%E7%E8%E6%E/comm3%E7%E7E7%E7%A%B5%B2” > ; the third is that the national currency no longer has an exchange rate of = 87%B2%2%-h2%2% 前美聯儲主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在1960年代曾撰文表示支持金本位。他在《黃金與經濟自由》(Gold and Economic Freedom)一文中寫道,在金本位制度下,一個國家的信用額由這個國家的有形資產規模來決定;沒有了金本位制度,也就沒有了安全的價值儲存載體,政府幾乎可以不受阻礙地沉溺於瘋狂的信貸創造。赤字開支純粹就是一種將社會財富充公的陰謀;而金本位制度會嚴格約束這種赤字開支,起到保護大眾財產權的作用。
Formerly ; 儘管格林斯潘在擔任美聯儲主席後逐漸離棄了支持金本位的觀點,但現在不少人回頭稱贊格老確實有先見之明。
Although Greenspan, after assuming the position of president of the US Federal Reserve, has moved away from supporting the gold standard, there are now many who have come back to claim that Zangelo did have a vision. 其實,歷史和現實顯示,回歸金本位,是一種不切實際的幻想,如果真要實行,可能成為一場荒誕的鬧劇,造成災難性的後果。
Indeed, history and reality have shown that a return to the gold standard is an unrealistic illusion that, if implemented, it could become a farce, with disastrous consequences. 古代有過金屬貨幣的金本位制;這裡講的是指紙幣作為兌換憑證或代用券時的金本位制。
In ancient times, the metal currency ; here it refers to the gold standard system where currency is used as exchange certificate or voucher. 1717年英國首先實行金本位紙幣,但直到1821年才正式確立為制度。其後德國、瑞典、挪威、荷蘭、美國、法國、俄國、日本等國先後宣佈實施金本位制。世界各國實行金本位制長者二百餘年,短者數十年,而中國一直沒有施行過金本位制(除了國民政府曾短暫實行的“金圓券”)。
After that, Germany, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, the United States, France, the Russian Federation, Japan, etc. announced the introduction of the gold standard system. The world’s leading gold standard holders, for more than 200 years and for a few decades, did not have a gold standard in China (except for the “gold coupons” that the national government had briefly implemented). 從1870年到一戰爆發之前,是金本位制使用最廣泛的50年。但越來越多的研究顯示,當時金本位制盛行是歐洲經濟繁榮的結果,而不是其原因。事實上,世界經濟在金本位制下於1879-1896年之間爆發了以金融體系的崩潰為導火索的世界性經濟蕭條。
From 1870 until the outbreak of World War I, it was the result, rather than the cause, of the most widespread use of the gold-based system 第一次世界大戰爆發,各國為求自保,紛紛進行黃金管制,金本位制難以維持。戰後,1922年在義大利熱那亞召開世界貨幣金融會議,建立了一種節約黃金的不完全的金本位制,即1925年起實施的國際金匯兌本位制:英、法、美等國貨幣直接與黃金掛鉤,其他國家的貨幣通過這些國家貨幣間接與黃金掛鉤。但曾幾何時,1929-1933年的大蕭條使得各國央行紛紛放棄金本位,改行了不兌現的信用貨幣制度。尤其為難的是,金本位決定了各國央行不能在經濟不景氣時採取擴張政策,致使衰退乃至蕭條難以複原,1929年之後全球經濟幾乎經歷了10年的通貨緊縮。從1938年開始,已沒有一個國家允許國民將貨幣或存款兌換成黃金。
Eref = 二戰結束前夕,美國主導戰後國際貨幣體系重建。1944年7月,在美國新罕布希爾州佈雷頓森林郡的度假賓館召開了44個國家參加的“聯合國國際貨幣金融會議”,通過了以美國“懷特計劃”為藍本的《佈雷頓森林協議》(Bretton Woods system),從而建立了一種“國際性金匯兌本位制”(可兌換黃金的美元本位制,是一種間接的金本位制)的“佈雷頓森林體系”。
On the eve of the end of World War II, the United States-led international monetary system was rebuilt. In July 1944, the “United Nations International Monetary Fund Conference” was held in a resort hotel in Bretton Woods County, New Hampshire, United States of America, in which 44 countries took part. The “United Nations International Monetary Fund Conference” 20世紀60年代相繼發生了數次黃金搶購風潮,美國為了維護自身利益,先是放棄了黃金固定官價,隨後宣佈不再承擔兌換黃金義務,於是佈雷頓森林貨幣體系黯然收場,開始了黃金非貨幣化改革。
In order to defend its interests, the United States gave up the fixed value of the gold and announced that it would no longer be responsible for the exchange of the gold, which was followed in the 1960s by several successive gold booms, so that reforms. 1976年1月,在牙買加首都金斯敦的國際貨幣會議上達成了以浮動匯率合法化、黃金的非貨幣化等為主要內容的《牙買加協定》(Jamaica Agreement),於1978年4月生效。“佈雷頓森林體系”正式宣告解體。
In January 1976, , non-monetaryization of gold, etc., became the main element of , which entered into force in April 1978. 回顧過去百餘年貨幣本位的變遷史,可見顛顛簸簸的金本位制並不能解決國際貨幣體系的諸多弊病,運行實踐也談不上成功。歷史上發生過的向金本位制復歸的嘗試均以失敗告終,表明被拋棄了近半個世紀的貴金屬本位紙幣早已完成了歷史使命。
Looking back at the history of currency changes over the past century, it can be seen that the gold-based system has not been able to address the many ills of the international monetary system, and that it has not been successful. The attempts to return to the gold-based system that have occurred in history have been unsuccessful, indicating that the precious metal-denominated currency that has been abandoned for almost half a century has already fulfilled its historic mission. 因為人們心目中藉助黃金保值儲備的觀念根深蒂固,黃金的非貨幣化並不等於黃金完全失去了貨幣職能。美國的黃金儲備,已從1945年21770噸(占世界黃金儲備近60%)降為目前的8133.5噸(占世界黃金儲備的15%弱),依然維持全球最大儲備國地位。就連高舉黃金非貨幣化大旗的國際貨幣基金會也保留了大部分黃金儲備。20世紀90年代末誕生的歐元貨幣體系,黃金占該體系貨幣儲備的15%。黃金仍是可以被國際接受的繼美元、歐元、英磅、日元之後的第5大國際結算“準貨幣”。這種現象,意味著黃金在林林總總的商品當中,仍有某種流通媒介的特殊功能,但這並不等於時光可以倒流。
Because of the deep-rooted nature of the ACVS reserve, the non-monetaryization of the gold does not equal the total loss of the gold . In the United States, 金本位制之所以行不通,首先在於黃金市場太小了,生產量的增長幅度遠遠低於商品生產增長的幅度,其前景不能滿足全球化世界日益擴大的商品流通需要,這就極大地削弱了作為貨幣儲備的基礎,不可能從一種有限的市場商品重返“一般等價物”。
The failure of the gold-based system, firstly because the gold market was too small, the growth in production was far less than the growth in commodity production, and its prospects fell short of the growing demand for commodity flows in the globalized world. This weakened the foundation for currency reserves and made it impossible to return from a limited market to “ General Equivalent . 人類有史以來開采積聚的全部黃金,估計逾15萬噸。其中約40%即6萬噸為金融資產;世界各國官方黃金儲備占有3.2萬噸,其餘是私人擁有的投資財富。另外的60%作為商品,主要是首飾業和裝飾品,為民間收藏和流轉,還有少量用於電子工業、牙醫、金章及其他行業。
Humans have a history of gathering all of the gold, estimated at more than 150,000 tons. About 40% of it, or 60,000 tons, is ; the world's official yellow reserves hold 32,000 tons, the rest of which is privately owned investment wealth. Another 60% of it is a commodity, mainly for jewellery and ornaments, for public collections and fluids, and a small amount is used in electronics, dental, gold and other industries. 在整個20世紀,南非一直都是世界上最大的黃金生產國。但近年來南非黃金礦藏資源逐漸枯竭,產量下降。2007年,中國生產黃金276噸,相當於全球黃金總供應量的十分之一,超過了南非的272噸,成為世界上最大的黃金生產國。
Throughout the 20th century, South Africa has been the world’s largest gold-producing country. But in recent years, South Africa’s gold-mining resources have been depleted and production has declined. In 2007, China produced 276 tons of gold, equivalent to , surpassing South Africa’s 272 tons and becoming the world’s largest gold-producing country. 黃金原子核由79個質子和112個中子組成,屬奇-偶型核類,又具有親硫性、親銅性,親鐵性、高熔點等性質,決定了金在自然界中的豐度很低。形成工業礦床,要富集上千倍;形成大礦、富礦,則要富集幾千、幾萬倍,甚至更高,可見大金礦難於產生。據估計99%以上的金進入了地核,現查明地殼中的黃金總儲量僅為16.6萬噸,豐度只有鐵的一千萬份之一,銀的1/21,可採資源大約只及總儲量之半。目前全球黃金年產量近3千噸,按此推算,30年後黃金供應水平將難以為繼。
The gold atoms are composed of 79 quarts and 112 neutrons, which are odd-to-couple, bronze, iron-like, high-melt, etc., and determine the low abundance of gold in nature. The formation of industrial mining beds is thousands of times larger; the creation of large or rich mines is several thousand or tens of thousands of times higher, and can be seen to be difficult to produce. It is estimated that more than 99% of the gold has entered the field, and that only 166,000 tons of gold has been found in the Earth's crust, one million tons of iron, one twenty-one million of silver, and nearly one-half of silver is available. Global gold production is now nearly 3,000 tons a year, according to this assumption, and the level of gold supply in 30 years will not be considered sustainable. 黃金作為商品,工業性應用範圍很小,主要用於審美收藏。如今科技發達,真金之外,再生金、合成金(白金、黑金、玫瑰金)等大量出現,擠占了飾品原料中黃金的市場份額,黃金市場價格低位運行是自然趨勢。但是黃金在人類史中長期建立起來的“天然貨幣”餘威猶在,一旦發生危機或動亂,人們潛意識中還會回歸黃金這個保值避險的港灣。因此黃金價格具有商品和貨幣雙重屬性。
Gold, as a commodity, has a very small scope for industrial applications, mainly in American collections. Today, in addition to real money, there is a proliferation of regenerative gold, synthetic gold (platinum, black gold, rose gold), and , which is natural in nature. But the “natural currency” that has been built in human history for a long time, and once a crisis or disturbance has occurred, it is likely that people will return to the safe value A2%D2%D" title="market share" . 黃金開采和提煉的平均成本因礦石品質及開采模式而異,目前平均約為每盎司(金衡制)400美元。
The average cost of gold mining and extraction varies from ounce (gold balance) of about $400. 黃金價格受雙重屬性交互作用支配。當商品屬性占據主導地位時,黃金價格與大宗商品價格走勢是一樣的;當貨幣屬性占主導時,黃金價格與一般商品及國際儲備貨幣匯率會發生背離。比如1989-1998年間,國際政治經濟局勢相對穩定,黃金的商品屬性占主導,與美元的關係鬆散。1996年以來,各國中央銀行的大規模拋售黃金,國際市場的金價從418美元/盎司的高位一路下瀉,2001年甚至下探到251美元/盎司,低於當時的生產成本。由此可見,所謂黃金保值之說,其實站不住腳。2001至2008年間,主要因為歐元誕生後開始挑戰美元的國際貨幣地位,黃金與美元關係變得更密切起來,其貨幣屬性漸占重要地位。尤其本輪金融危機以來,受避險買盤推動,黃金的貨幣屬性強力展現,金價大幅上揚,2008年3月單日最高達1032.55美元;但因美元表現堅挺,隨後金價回落振蕩,目前在900美元左右。
The price of gold is subject to a two-dimensional interaction. When the value of merchandise property is in the same position, the price of gold and are in the same position; when the value of the currency is in the dominant position, the price of gold and general goods 最近美國增發大量美元,人們對未來通脹較多預期,從而形成黃金價格的支撐力。如果救市計劃效果顯現,美國和世界經濟停止衰退,借貸市場和商品市場回暖,就會吸引資金轉向實體經濟投資這邊來,金價可能相應回落。
The US has recently posted a large increase in US dollars, and people’s support for the future is much more predictable. If the bailout plan’s effect is visible, the US and the world economy stops recession, the lending market and commodity market return, the price of which is likely to fall off at investment /a>. 即便按歷史高位每盎司1000美元計,世界各國官方黃金儲備總值也只有1萬億美元。現在全球GDP總量已逾60萬億美元,若按M2等於一半估計,需要黃金準備近百萬噸。如果世人不能深入地核淘金,這就是太不現實和不可想象的了。
Even at a historic high of $1,000 per ounce, the world’s official gold reserves total only $1 trillion. Now that 黃金價格本身波動不定,由於存在商品屬性和貨幣屬性的雙重特性,尤具撲朔迷離的不確定性。那麼,是否可以人為地巨幅提升和確定黃金的價格(比如每盎司金價高至一萬美元以上)以支持金本位復辟呢?
The gold price itself is volatile, owing to the existence of two-fold characteristics of commodity and currency properties, especially uncertainty. So, can one raise and determine the price of gold (e.g., up to $10,000 per ounce) to support gold restoration? 問題是黃金價格誰來定?政府控制黃金價格和自由經濟是不相調和的,大宗商品也不會隨著人為的黃金價格而浮動,其背離市場的程度和負面後果絕不亞於強行控制任何其他主要物資的價格。曾記實行“佈雷頓森林體系”之時,規定35美元一盎司黃金,為了使這一要求有效,在美國國內擁有黃金曾被定為非法;但是一旦市場不再承認這個價格,而且偏離甚遠時,整個體系就支撐不住,轟然倒塌了。
The question is who will determine the gold price? The government’s control of the gold price and the free economy is incompatible, and the bulk of the goods will not float with the price of the gold that people use, and the extent and negative effects of the market are no less than the imposition of the price of any other major goods. When the “Breton Forest System” was written, 35 ounces of gold was set, and in order to make that requirement effective, the possession of the gold in the United States was set to be illegal; but once the market stopped acknowledging the price and was far away, the whole system failed and collapsed. 2008年11月,《第一財經日報》在紐約專訪“歐元之父”蒙代爾,這位曾經高度評價金本位的諾貝爾獎獲得者,也以為“沒有經濟學家會考慮回到金本位,那將會是一個太過巨大的變化,是不會成功的。金本位是一個很好的固定匯率體系,但是這個系統有一個非常大的缺陷,就是沒有一個能夠隨著黃金和大宗商品價格浮動的機制。”
In November 2008, 金本位制之所以行不通,第二個主要原因是資源分配很不均勻。19世紀以來,世界黃金存量大部分為少數強國所掌握;從下表可見,目前依然是少數發達國家的囊中物。現在美、歐儲備黃金占了75%以上,如果計入國際貨幣基金會等機構的持有量,則已超過80%。“世界其他地區”一共占有不到13%。就儲量而言,南非幾乎占了全球可採儲量的一半;其餘主要分佈在美國、澳大利亞、巴西、加拿大、中國和俄羅斯。這種情況必然導致許多國家,特別是缺少黃金儲備的新興經濟體難以獲得平等的貨幣流通基礎,實際上進一步剝奪了國際上弱勢群體的話語權。
The second reason why the gold system does not work is that . For the 19th century, South Africa accounted for almost half of the world's reserves; the rest of the world's gold stock is still largely in the possession of a small number of powerful countries; from the table below, it is still in the possession of a small number of developing countries. 表1 各國中央銀行和貨幣機構持有黃金一覽表
Table 1 First overview of gold held by central banks and currency institutions 根據世界黃金協會(World Gold Council)統計報告]
According to 註:1噸=3.215萬盎司(金衡制)
Comment: 1 ton = 32.15 million ounces (gold balance) * 黃金ETF基金(Exchange Traded Fund)是指一種以黃金為基礎資產,追蹤現貨黃金價格波動的金融衍生產品。運行原理為:由大型黃金生產商向基金公司寄售實物黃金,隨後由基金公司以此實物黃金為依托,在交易所內公開發行基金份額,銷售給各類投資者,商業銀行分別擔任基金托管行和實物保管行,投資者在基金存續期間內可以自由贖回。
* 利潤,人類就要做金礦的奴隸,就要做金礦主的奴隸。”難道這是現代文明社會必須屈從的不公平性嗎?
A return to the gold standard would drive the whole world back to gold, which had little practical meaning; because the easy-to-grave area was almost over, the gold would lead to a waste of social resources and environmental damage. And the gold miner would be a time pet for the bakery, leaving the entire world's hard-working creative workers under their feet. As the American economist Triffin once said, “If the gold is used as world currency again, the human race will depend on the gold miner /a>, humans would be enslaved as gold miners.” Is this the injustice of the civilized world? 金本位制所以行不通的第三個原因,是國家內外不可避免的利益衝突,使得這種保障體制非常脆弱。第一次世界大戰爆發,參戰國需要集中黃金用於購買軍火,就停止了銀行兌現和自由輸出黃金,導致金本位制的崩潰。
The third reason why the gold standard does not work is the inevitable conflict of interests within and outside the country, which makes the system fragile. The first World War required countries to concentrate on gold for the purchase of military fire, thereby stopping bank cashing and freeing out gold, leading to the collapse of the gold standard. 金匯兌本位制的“佈雷頓森林體系”,是美國有意願、有能力,也有充分國際支持度條件下的產物,當美國難於兼顧國家利益與國際協定,法國帶頭抵制,參加國分崩離析之際,美國事先未與任何國家商量,一聲單邊宣告:“停止外國央行以美元兌換黃金的義務”,就此一了百了。
The “Bretton Forest System” of the gold bank system is a product of the United States of America's will, ability and full international support. When the United States is difficult to reconcile its national interests with international agreements, French leadership resists and participates in the collapse of the country, the United States, without prior consultation with any country, has declared unilaterally that it “stops the obligation of foreign central banks to exchange the dollar for gold”. 例如美國在羅斯福新政時期曾經部分地採行過金本位制的所謂的“償付美元”(Compensated Dollar)計劃,這種制度允許對黃金官價進行周期性調整以穩定國家的物價水平,即當物價下降時提高黃金官價,而在物價上升時降低黃金官價;在金融資本國際化大環境中,這種方法實際上是公開地以犧牲其它國家的通貨穩定來換取本國的物價穩定。
For example, the so-called “United States dollar payment” (Compensated Dollar) scheme, which was partially implemented in the United States during the New Deal in Roosevelt, allows for periodic adjustment of the prices of gold officials to stabilize the country to raise the prices of gold officers when prices fall, while reducing the prices of gold > 可見金本位制的可靠性和公正性,實質上取決於居於主導地位的強權國家的立場;在國家內外不可避免的利益衝突下,較之現行國際貨幣體系(“無體系的體系”),其可靠性和公正性可能更加不堪一擊。
As can be seen, the reliability and impartiality of the gold standard is essentially determined by the position of a powerful country in a dominant position; its reliability and impartiality may be even more vulnerable to the inevitable conflict of interests within and outside the country than the current international monetary system (the “unorganized system”). 今日世界,仍然存在政治制度和經濟發展水平上的重大差異;可以說,一種普遍實行、長期有效、公正合理的金本位制只能是游離現實之外的的美好想象罷了。
In today's world, there are still major differences between the political system and the level of economic development; it can be said that a universal, effective and just gold standard can only be a good idea to move away from reality. “別把人類釘在黃金十字架上。” “黃金可以防止一定的經濟過度行為,但不幸的是,它也可以阻礙經濟活動,它的美德會變成罪過。”正如路透社2008年11月15日報道,世界各國央行行長和政府官員都不希望貨幣政策受到黃金儲備的影響,他們都開始行動叫停金本位制度的回歸。
“Don't crucify human beings on a golden cross.” “The gold can prevent a certain amount of economic excess, but unfortunately it can also block economic activity, and its virtues will become a sin.” As reported on November 15, 2008, central bank governors and government officials from all over the world did not want 信用貨幣制度。
In the face of the difficult situation of the gold-based system, others have attempted to use the real-time system to replace . 這種設想的不可行性,較之金本位制其實更加明顯。
The impossibility of such an assumption is even more obvious than the gold standard. 首先,充當實物本位的形形色色商品,如何進行儲存,是個極為複雜和困難的問題。那些金屬、能源、原材料,如果也像黃金那樣儲存起來,不僅成本浩大,而且如此大量非常富於實用價值的物資,脫離了全球經濟的運行,被長期積壓起來,本身就是違反經濟原則的荒謬行徑。
First, it is a very complex and difficult question of how to store a variety of goods in the real world. Those metals, energy, , if they are also stored like gold, are not only costly and so vastly valuable, they are out of the way of the global economy, they have been accumulated for a long time, and they are inherently absurd ways to violate economic principles. 再者,一旦發生動用儲備兌現貨幣的需要,由於作為貨幣價值基礎的抵押商品組成複雜,難以分割和分配,實際上非常缺乏可操作性;貨幣體系將失去因應危機的自我調節能力。
Moreover, once there is a need to use the reserve to cash the currency, it is difficult to divide and distribute it because of the complexity of the combination of collateral commodities that are the basis for the value of the currency, which is in fact very lacking in operability; the currency system will lose its ability to adjust itself to the crisis. 金本位制已成為歷史名詞。當然,在今後相當長的歷史時期內,黃金還會與外匯、各種貨幣求償權和其他資產相結合,充當具有特殊意義的的貨幣發行準備物。因此新興經濟體適當加強國內黃金開采,增大黃金持有水平,作為減持美元或其他主權貨幣的一種努力,改善儲備體系的多樣性,仍有一定現實意義。
The gold system has become a historical term. Of course, in the long history of the year ahead, gold will be combined with foreign currency, currency claims and , as well as with special value currency preparation. Thus, should be used to boost gold production in the country, increasing the level of gold in order to reduce the value of the United States dollar or other capital. 本世紀以來,中國不斷調整提升黃金儲備,2001年從394噸上升到了500噸,2003年又調增至600噸。近年來中國加強了黃金開采的力度,年產量從本世紀初的一百噸左右上升至2008年的歷史最高紀錄282噸,但受自然條件的制約,今後不可能與以往幾年那樣成倍增長。
Since the beginning of the century, China has continuously adjusted and upgraded its gold reserves, rising from 394 tons to 500 tons in 2001 and to 600 tons in 2003. In recent years, China has intensified its gold mining efforts, increasing its annual production from about 100 tons at the beginning of the century to 282 tons in 2008, but under natural regulations, it is unlikely to increase as much as in previous years. 2009年4月24日中國國家外匯管理局宣佈,自2003年以來,通過國內增產、雜金提純以及市場交易等方式,大幅增加了黃金儲備454噸,總儲備量已達1054噸,在各國公佈的黃金儲備中排名第五,價值約300億美元;但僅占全球官方黃金儲備總量的3%,相當於本國外匯儲備的1.6%(該比例實際上比2003年有所下降)。
中國在宣佈黃金儲量增加的同時,還要求國際貨幣基金會(IMF)出售所持有的黃金。假如中國按照每盎司1000美元的價格買下IMF的全部3217噸黃金儲備,那麼要花1030億美元,但僅相當於現有外匯儲備1.95萬億美元的5.25%。有人建議增加黃金儲備作為所持有的美國債券的風險對沖,要產生這樣的效果,恐怕還要增儲許多倍。
At the same time that China announced the increase in its gold reserves, it also asked ( IMF< IMF) to sell the gold held by the International Monetary Fund. 俄國在過去幾個月里也不斷增持黃金。印度、中國臺灣、新加坡,挪威,沙烏地阿拉伯以及石油輸出國組織的一些國家和地區都已經增加了黃金儲備,而且在未來的幾個月里還會繼續這樣做,以圖保護自身貨幣的價值。這種動向都會推高黃金的價格,甚至生成大量泡沫,卻不意味著增加了恢復金本位制的機會。從長遠看,由於金價受雙重屬性交互作用支配,它的保值作用其實沒有什麼理性的剛性的保障可言,而且黃金儲備既要花保管費,還不生利息;一旦避險買盤效應退潮,商品屬性回歸主導地位,須有嚴重減記的風險準備。
In India, Taiwan, Singapore, Norway, Saudi Arabia, and have increased the gold reserve in some countries and localities and will continue to do so in the coming months in order to protect the value of their own currency. 值得註意的是,國際貨幣基金會不但無意增持黃金,相反地已經同意出售黃金儲備,將所得資金為最貧窮國家提供優惠融資。
It is interesting to note that the International Monetary Fund will not only increase the gold, but instead have agreed to sell the gold reserves to provide the poorest countries with the benefit of . 當前,大多數國家履行出資救市責任的方式將更多依賴印鈔票和擴大債務,其擴大通脹的風險不言而喻。於是,對於既是主要債務國又是主要黃金儲備國的經濟體來說,出售黃金是一個理想的選擇。如不出預料,更多的國際金融機構,甚至主要黃金儲備國,都會加入到出售黃金的行列。
Before that time, most countries had fulfilled their duty to rescue the city by increasing reliance on printing money and expanding , the risk of expanding the Great Wall. So selling gold is an ideal option for the economy, which is a major debtor and a major gold reserve country. Unexpectedly, more , and even the main gold bank will be involved in selling gold. Kitco Bullion Dealers(著名貴金屬經銷商)高級分析師納德勒(Jon Nadler)指出,全世界已挖掘出來的全部黃金在全球財富總額中所占的比重只有0.6%左右,即使金價升到了每盎司10,000美元,它在全球財富總額中占的比例也只有6%。
According to the high-level analyst Jon Nadler, Kitco Bullion Dealers, a well-known precious metal dealer, all gold excavated worldwide accounts for only about 0.6 per cent of total global wealth, and even if the gold price rises to $10,000 per ounce, it accounts for only 6 per cent of total global wealth. 他說,這不會讓它開始成為解決困擾世界的問題的靈丹妙藥。即便如此,像中國這樣一個重要的國家應該對其大量儲備繼續尋求多元化,普通投資者也應該這樣。
He said that it would not begin to be a panacea for the world’s troubles. Even so, an important country like China should continue to seek pluralism in its vast reserves, and so should ordinary investors. 納德勒說,只是,進行多元化的時候不要帶著投機的念頭,認為中國買黃金是黃金下麵的導火索正在點燃(將引爆金價)的跡象。他說,這隻是買保險……每次買一點點。
Nadler said that it was just that that buying gold from China was a spark (which would detonate the price) under the gold. He said that this was a little point at each purchase . 當代市場經濟是信用貨幣主導的市場經濟。世界已經走上了虛擬的信用貨幣獨占貨幣歷史舞臺的不歸路。信用貨幣不再直接代表任何貴金屬;它的唯一支撐是對發行者實力的信心。解決今日貨幣制度的弊病,恐怕只有在“信用”兩字上最大限度發揮想象力和創造性,而非重蹈屬於十九世紀和更早時代的形形色色貴金屬和實物貨幣的窠臼。
The market economy of is the market economy led by credit money. The world has embarked on a virtual credit coin with no return to its historical stage. Credit coins no longer directly represent any ; their only support is confidence in the real power of producers.
排名 國家 / 機構 黃金儲備(噸) 黃金儲備比率(%)
1 美國 8,133.5 76.5%
2 德國 3,412.6 64.4%
3 國際貨幣基金會 3,217.3 -
4 法國 2,508.8 58.7%
5 義大利 2,451.8 61.9%
6 中華人民共和國 1054.0 1.6%
7 瑞士 1,040.1 23.8%
8 日本 765.2 1.9%
9 荷蘭 621.4 57.8%
10 歐洲中央銀行 533.6 20.1%
11 俄羅斯 495.9 2.2%
12 中國臺灣 422.4 3.6%
13 葡萄牙 382.5 85.9%
14 印度 357.7 3.0%
15 委內瑞拉 356.4 23.4%
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