比特币的主导地位仍然强劲，市值占比达到52%，但链上和技术数据表明，山寨币的春天或将到来。
Bitcoin's dominant position remains strong, with a market value ratio of 52 per cent, but chain-to-chain and technical data suggest that the spring of the mountain currency will come.
比特币2月20日经历了大幅回调，从盘中高点53019美元跌至最低50812美元，跌幅高达4%，接近抹去过去7天的涨幅。这种回调导致交易者重新评估加密货币市场的总体状况，引发了关于山寨币季节（altseason）是否到来的争论。
Bitcoin went through a major roundup on February 20, falling from a high of $53019 to a low of $50812, a drop of up to 4 per cent, close to erasing the increase of the last seven days. This roundup led traders to re-evaluate the overall status of the encrypted currency market and to debate whether or not the altseason season was coming.
比特币价格回调的原因是什么？
What's the reason for the bitcoin price reversal?
交易员和市场分析师认为，比特币减半周期内行情分为五个阶段，减半发生之前会经历持续的价格暴跌和回调，然后进入广泛预期的减半后呈现抛物线上升趋势。
Traders and market analysts believe that the five-stage cycle of halving Bitcoin will be followed by a sustained price collapse and rebound before halving, and then by a parabolic upward trend after moving into the widely expected halve.
加密货币交易员兼分析师Rekt Capital在2月15日称，比特币在恢复上升趋势之前还剩下“最后一次减半前的回撤”。
On 15 February, Rekt Capital, an encrypted currency trader and analyst, stated that Bitcoin had “released before the last half” before returning to the upward trend.
独立市场分析师Sjuul则指出，比特币的融资利率很高，警告交易者“预计会出现全面调整”。不过，他也指出，
The independent market analyst, Sjuul, pointed out that Bitcoin had a very high interest rate on its financing, warning traders that “a full adjustment was expected.” He also noted, however, that
“在我看来，这是我们都在寻找的逢低买入机会。”
“It seems to me that this is the kind of low-buying opportunity we're all looking for.”
在过去两周内，拥有1万至10万美元的稳定币持有者增持了4430万美元的USDT。这表明他们可能准备在回调时逢低买入。市场情报公司Santiment认为，中型交易员的大动作往往是获利了结和逢低买入的绝佳信号。
Over the past two weeks, US$ 44.3 million in stable currency holders, with between $10,000 and $100,000, has been added to USDT. This suggests that they may be prepared to buy lows when they return.
山寨币的春天到来？
The spring of the bogus coins?
山寨币在过去12个月中表现出色，实现了两位数，甚至三位数的涨幅，其中一些表现优于比特币。
In the past 12 months, they have performed well, achieving double-digit or even triple-digit increases, some of which have outperformed bitcoin.
根据CoinMarketCap的数据，比特币在过去12个月内上涨了107%，Solana （SOL） 上涨了308%，Avalanche（AVAX）上涨了80%，Chainlink（LINK）上涨了136%。
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin had risen by 107 per cent over the past 12 months, Solana (SOL) by 308 per cent, Avalanche (AVAX) by 80 per cent and Chainlink (LINK) by 136 per cent.
链上分析公司Glassnode的最新数据显示，比特币年初至今的表现超过了山寨币市场总体表现。Glassnode分析师Alice Kohn表示：
The latest data from the chain-based analysis company Glasnode shows that Bitcoin outperformed the overall performance of the market from the beginning of the year to the present. Alice Kohn, an analyst from Glassnode, said:
“山寨币的总市值并未经历同样的涨幅，年初至今的增长还不到两大主要货币的一半。”
“The total market value of the mountain coins has not increased by the same amount, and it has grown by less than half of the two major currencies since the beginning of the year.”
Glassnode指出，比特币继续显示出主导地位，“目前每月资本流入约为200亿美元”。自2023年10月以来，比特币的主导地位持续增长，相对市值飙升1000%。
According to Glasnode, Bitcoin continues to show a dominant position, “currently about $20 billion per month in capital inflows.” Since October 2023, Bitcoin's dominant position has continued to grow, with a sharp rise in relative market value of 1,000 per cent.
报告指出：“很明显，与两种主要加密货币之间的轮换相比，资本沿着风险曲线向下流入山寨币的速度较慢，这一趋势似乎再次发挥作用……比特币持续领先，占数字资产总市值的52%以上。”
The report states: “It is clear that capital flows down the risk curve to the mountain currency have been slower than the rotation between the two major encrypted currencies, and this trend seems to be again working... Bitcoin continues to lead by more than 52 per cent of the total market value of digital assets.”
“山寨季”还有多远？
How far away is the "Fountain season"?
2月18日，独立分析师Stockmoney Lizards表示，山寨币市值已突破重要支撑区域，并进入牛市，类似于2021年经历的10倍回报率。
On 18 February, an independent analyst, StockMoney Lizards, stated that the market value of the bounties had broken through important support areas and entered the cattle market, similar to the 10-fold rate of return experienced in 2021.
尽管有一些迹象，但现在确定山寨币季节即将到来可能还为时过早。Glassnode的山寨币季节指标自去年10月以来一直表现出积极的势头，并在1月份比特币ETF获批引发的抛售期间暂停后，于2月4日转为正值。
Despite some signs, it may be too early to determine that the season is approaching. Glasnode’s target for the season has shown a positive momentum since last October, and was suspended on 4 February after the sale period, triggered by the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January.
有趣的是，此后该指标一直保持正值，表明市场目前处于风险偏好模式，显示了投资者目前对山寨币的信心。
Interestingly, the indicator has remained positive since then, indicating that the market is currently in a risk-oriented pattern and that investors currently have confidence in bounties.
区块链中心的数据显示，在过去90天内，前50名山寨币中只有59%的表现优于比特币。尽管该指数在过去几天一直在增加，但仍不足以宣布山寨币季节到来。要宣布进入山寨币季节，该百分比必须达到75%以上。
Data from the block chain centre show that in the last 90 days, only 59% of the top 50 bounties outperformed bitcoin. Although the index has been increasing over the past few days, it is not enough to announce the arrival of the mound season.
Glassnode总结道：“我们的山寨币指标表明山寨币市场更加成熟，并且可能持续上涨，但目前它仍然相对集中于市值较高的资产。”
Glassnode concluded: “Our money index shows a more mature and potentially persistent rise in the market, but it is still relatively concentrated in assets with a higher market value.”
这意味着山寨币季节的迹象开始出现，但现在下结论可能还为时过早。
This means that the signs of the mound season are beginning to emerge, but it may be too early to draw conclusions.
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