华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)
“五一”假期期间，比特币再次上演了一出“过山车”式的行情。
During the “Five Ones” holiday, Bitcoin re-enacted a “circumstance” act.
5月1日，假期刚刚开始，比特币便遭遇大规模抛售，价格一度从6万美元上方快速下跌至5.6万美元附近的低点，当日最大跌幅超9%，导致超14万人爆仓。5月4日，比特币又迅速回调，价格直逼6.5万美元，日内涨幅达到9.3%。
On 1 May, just after the holiday began, Bitcoin was sold on a large scale, with prices falling rapidly from over $60,000 to a low point near $560 million, with the largest drop of over 9 per cent that day, resulting in over 140,000 people bursting. On 4 May, Bitcoin quickly returned, with prices pushing at $65,000, with an increase of 9.3 per cent in the day.
截至发稿，比特币最新价格为64265.9美元，日内涨幅为1.46%。Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时共有近4万人被爆仓，爆仓金额为7536.96万美元。
By the time of publication, the latest price of Bitcoin was $642.65.9, an increase of 1.46 per cent. Coinglass data show that close to 40,000 people have been sunk in the last 24 hours, amounting to $75.3696 million.
“投资者应该理性对待加密货币市场的暴涨暴跌，这是市场正常波动的一部分。”萨摩耶云科技集团首席经济学家郑磊向《华夏时报》记者表示，由于监管环境的变化和市场情绪的影响，加密货币市场未来可能会继续出现波动。
“Investors should take a rational view of the surge and collapse of the crypto-currency market, which is part of the normal volatility of the market.” The chief economist of the Samoyeun Technologies Group told the Washington Times that the crypto-currency market could continue to fluctuate in the future because of changes in the regulatory environment and the influence of market sentiment.
比特币接下来如何走？
What's next for Bitcoin?
市场普遍认为，美国比特币现货ETF资金流入放缓、“减半”落地后投资者获利了结，共同导致了比特币价格走低。
The market is generally of the view that the slowdown in the inflow of spot ETF funds in United States currency and the “half-per-cent” positive winding-up of investors have together led to lower Bitcoin prices.
数据显示，现货比特币ETF已连续五周出现净流出，金额达6.35亿美元。5月2日，投资者从美国现货比特币ETF中撤资5.58亿美元，这是该类基金自1月中旬推出以来最大的单日资金流出。其中，灰度比特币信托基金流出1.67亿美元，自1月份转换为ETF以来，该信托基金的资金流出已超过170亿美元。
The data show that the spot Bitcoin ETF has made a net outflow for five weeks, amounting to $635 million. On 2 May, investors withdrew $558 million from the current United States Bitcoin ETF, the largest single-day outflow of funds since the fund was launched in mid-January. Of that amount, the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust Fund had outflows of $167 million, and since the conversion to ETF in January, it had outflows of more than $17 billion.
由于缺乏积极的市场催化剂和散户投资者兴趣下降，摩根大通分析师表示，短期内对加密货币保持“谨慎”立场。分析师表示，过去两周，加密货币市场出现了“大量”抛售或获利了结，散户投资者可能比机构投资者发挥了更大的作用。
In the absence of positive market catalysts and declining interest on the part of bulk investors, Morgan Chase analysts have stated that a “prudential” stance on encrypted currencies is being maintained in the short term. Analysts have stated that the crypto-currency market has been sold or closed “in large quantities” over the past two weeks, with bulk investors likely playing a greater role than institutional investors.
Secure Digital Markets分析师表示，随着宏观经济压力持续存在，看跌势头加剧，将比特币推至6万美元的关键支撑位下方。比特币近期已跌至5.65万美元，自2月28日以来首次跌破5.7万美元大关，并录得自8月以来的首次月度下跌。分析师表示，在美联储维持利率稳定的情况下，对降息之路漫长的预期进一步令市场感到不安。
Secure Digital Markets analysts said that, as macroeconomic pressure persisted and the downward trend increased, Bitcoin was pushed below the key support of $60,000. Bitcoin has recently fallen to $565 million, breaking the $570 million mark for the first time since 28 February, and recording its first monthly decline since August. Analysts say that, with the Fed maintaining interest rate stability, expectations of long-term interest-rate reductions are further disturbing the market.
Factor Trading创始人Peter Brandt则更加悲观，他表示，比特币牛市可能已经见顶，预计币价将回落近50%，即跌回2021年3万多美元的低点。
The founder of Firer Trading, Peter Brandt, is even more pessimistic, stating that the Bitcoin Cattle may have peaked and that the currency is expected to fall close to 50 per cent, down to a low of over $30,000 in 2021.
市场上也不乏乐观观点。加密货币分析师Marcel Pechman发文表示，一些迹象表明比特币价格已接近底部，比特币矿工态度稳定，尽管哈希率下降，但矿工仍不愿出售，暗示比特币价格下跌可能接近尾声。稳定币需求增加，稳定币的需求增加显示了对加密货币的乐观态度，可能对比特币价格有所提振。美联储会议纪要发布，符合预期，市场的不确定性减少。
According to an encrypted currency analyst, Marcel Pechman, there are some indications that bitcoin prices are near the bottom, that bitcoin miners are stable, and that miners are still reluctant to sell despite the decline in Hashie rates, suggesting that bitcoin prices may fall to an end. The increase in currency-stabilization demand is indicative of optimism about encoded currency, and may have a bearing on bitcoin prices.
加密市场分析师Rekt Capital也表示，尽管看到比特币价格回撤和横盘整理可能会令人痛苦，但这正是该周期与历史价格规范和传统减半周期重新同步所需要的，这种情况持续的时间越长越好。
The cryptographic market analyst, Rekt Capital, also stated that, while it might be painful to see bitcoin price reversals and rounding, that was precisely what was needed for the cycle to be re-synchronized with the halving of historical price norms and traditions, the longer the situation would continue.
美国最大加密货币交易所Coinbase在最新的报告中指出，比特币最近的疲软更多地与全球市场有关，而不是与任何特定于加密货币的因素有关。比特币在4月份下跌了16%，是自2022年6月以来最大的月度跌幅。报告指出，在这次回撤中感到乐观的是，比特币从高点的最大回撤为23%，低于其历史范围，这种总体回撤减少的趋势将持续下去，部分原因是比特币作为宏观资产的合法化。
In its latest report, Coinbase, the largest encrypted currency exchange in the United States, noted that the recent weakness of Bitcoin was more related to global markets than to any factor specific to crypto-currency. Bitcoin fell by 16 per cent in April, the largest monthly drop since June 2022. The report noted that the recovery was optimistic that Bitcoin's largest recovery from high heights was 23 per cent, down from its historical range, and that this overall downward trend would continue, in part because Bitcoin was legalized as a macro-asset.
“长期来看，加密货币市场可能会继续发展，但短期内仍将面临监管、技术和市场动态等方面的不确定性。”天使投资人郭涛向《华夏时报》记者表示，投资者在面对加密货币市场的高波动性时，应采取谨慎的态度。建议投资者进行充分的市场研究，了解投资标的的基本面，并根据自身的风险承受能力制定投资策略。同时，分散投资组合可以降低风险。
“In the long run, crypto-currency markets may continue to develop, but in the short term they will still face regulatory, technological, and market dynamics uncertainties.” Angel investor Guo Tao said to the Washington Times journalists that investors should be cautious when facing the high volatility of crypto-currency markets. Investors are advised to undertake adequate market research, understand the fundamentals of the subject matter of the investment, and develop investment strategies based on their own risk tolerance.
中国法律咨询中心民商事专委会原副秘书长林先平向《华夏时报》记者表示，加密货币市场的整体波动性较大，受到市场情绪、宏观经济环境等多种因素的影响。对于投资者来说，比特币等加密货币的暴涨暴跌行情是一个常态，投资者应该保持冷静，理性对待市场波动，避免盲目跟风或过度投机。
China’s Legal Advisory Centre’s former Deputy Secretary-General, Lin Jinping, stated to the Washington Times that the overall volatility of the crypto-currency market was high, influenced by a variety of factors, such as market sentiment and the macroeconomic environment. For investors, the surge and collapse of encrypted currency, such as Bitcoin, is a common feature, and investors should remain calm and rational about market volatility, avoiding blindness or excessive speculation.
以太坊陷入争论中心
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加密货币市场价格震荡的背后，美国监管频频对加密行业出手。
Behind the price shocks in the crypto-currency market, the United States regulates the use of the encryption industry frequently.
5月1日，Twitter联合创始人Jack Dorsey旗下公司Block因不合规的加密业务而面临美联邦当局审查，调查范围包括Square和Cash App两个部门，据悉，其业务或涉嫌处理与受制裁国家和恐怖组织有关的加密交易。
On 1 May, the co-founder of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, company Block, was subjected to scrutiny by the United States federal authorities for non-compliant encryption operations, including the Square and Cash App Departments, which were known to operate or suspected of handling encrypted transactions related to sanctioned States and terrorist organizations.
4月30日，美国司法部发文称，被称为“比特币耶稣”的Roger Ver逃税近5000万美元，被控邮件欺诈、逃税和提交虚假纳税申报表，已于上周末在西班牙被捕，美国正在寻求将其被引渡至美国接受审判。
On 30 April, the United States Department of Justice sent a communication stating that Roger Ver, known as Bitcoin Jesus, had evaded nearly $50 million in taxes and had been arrested in Spain last weekend on charges of mail fraud, tax evasion and false tax returns, and that the United States was seeking his extradition to the United States for trial.
“监管机构对加密货币行业的一系列动作表明了政府对于新兴金融领域的关注，”郭涛认为，随着加密货币市场的不断成熟和扩大，监管的介入是为了防范潜在的金融风险和保护投资者利益。未来，我们可能会看到更加明确和严格的监管措施，这将推动加密货币行业向着更加合规、透明和专业的方向发展。同时，技术创新如去中心化金融（DeFi）和非同质化代币（NFT）等将继续推动行业发展，但也会面临监管的挑战。
In the future, we may see clearer and more stringent regulatory measures that will drive the industry toward greater compliance, transparency, and professionalism. At the same time, technological innovations, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-consistency monetization (NFT), will continue to drive the industry, but will also face regulatory challenges.
值得注意的是，有关以太坊（ETH）是否被列为证券的争斗正在愈演愈烈。
It is worth noting that the struggle over whether or not Etherwood is listed as a security is increasing.
日前，区块链软件开发公司Consensys对美国证券交易委员会（SEC）及其五名委员提起诉讼，声称 SEC 精心策划了一场“夺取加密货币话语权”的监管运动，监管机构试图通过针对Consensys和其他公司的特别执法行动来非法监管以太坊，但理论上SEC没有管辖权，理由是加密代币不是证券。Consensys方表示，SEC 已将目光瞄准MetaMask 钱包软件，该软件允许用户自行托管ETH和其他加密货币。
Previously, Consensys, a block chain software developer, filed a lawsuit against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and five of its members, alleging that SEC had carefully planned a regulatory campaign to “take over the encrypt currency voice” and that regulators were attempting to illegally regulate ETEA through special enforcement actions against Consensys and other companies, but that in theory SEC had no jurisdiction, on the ground that encryption was not a security. Consensys party stated that SEC had set its sight on the MetaMask wallet software, which allowed users to host ETH and other encrypted currencies on their own.
Consensys在文件中表示，其公司于4月10日收到SEC发出的Wells通知，警告可能对其MetaMask Swaps和MetaMask Stake产品采取执法行动。据Consensys透露，该公司在2023年收到了三张传票，被要求提供与收购、持有和销售ETH相关的信息。
In the document, Consensys indicated that its company had received a notification from SEC on 10 April from Wells that enforcement action might be taken against its MetaMask Swaps and MetaMask Stark products. Consensy revealed that it had received three summonses in 2023 requesting information relating to the acquisition, possession and sale of ETH.
作为反击，Consensys在德克萨斯州向SEC提起诉讼，并提出ETH不是证券的若干理由。首先是SEC对以太坊的历史立场，2018年，时任SEC金融部主任的William Hinman就发表过重要讲话，明确表示以太坊不被视为证券。其次是监管权的对抗，CFTC（商品期货交易委员会）始终认为以太坊是一类商品，并将其延续至KuCoin的诉讼中。最后，Consensys 强调以太坊具备足够的去中心化架构，并不存在以太坊的核心控制与开发群体，而共识机制的转变并不影响该点。
In response, Consensys filed a lawsuit against SEC in Texas, arguing that the ETH was not a security issue. First, SEC’s historical position on Etheria, in 2018, William Hinman, then head of SEC Finance, made an important statement, making it clear that Ether was not considered a security issue.
但根据最新法庭文件表示，SEC似乎在至少一年的时间里就已然明确了第二大加密货币以太坊是一种未注册的证券不符合现行联邦法规。截至目前，SEC对此并未回应。
According to the latest court documents, however, the SEC appears to have made it clear in at least a year that the second largest encrypted currency is an unregistered security that is not in accordance with current federal regulations. To date, the SEC has not responded to this.
与此同时，美国市场内，以太坊现货ETF的上市依旧遥遥无期。4月24日，SEC发布通知称，需要更长的时间对Cboe BZX交易所提出的富兰克林现货以太坊ETF上市交易提案做出决定。
Meanwhile, in the US market, the listing of ETA spot ETF remains elusive. On April 24, the SEC issued a circular stating that it would take longer to decide on the Franklin spot-to-market offer of the Cboe BZX deal.
投资银行TD Cowen表示，预计Consensys和美国SEC之间关于以太坊是否是证券的法律斗争将持续数年时间，而且分析师仍然认为美国SEC不太可能在2025年之前批准现货以太坊ETF。
The investment bank TD Cowen states that the legal struggle between Consensys and the United States of America over whether or not Ether is a security is expected to continue for several years, and analysts still believe that the US SEC is unlikely to approve spot ETFs by 2025.
郑磊认为，以太坊是当前市场上的主要加密货币之一，如果以太坊被列为证券，那么它可能会受到证券法规的更严格监管，这可能会影响其交易、发行和融资活动。
According to Zheng, Ether is one of the main encrypted currencies in the current market and, if it is listed as securities, it may be subject to stricter regulation of securities regulations, which may affect its transactions, issuances and financing activities.
在郭涛看来，美国SEC对于以太坊现货ETF的审批态度反映了其对于加密货币市场监管的谨慎性。SEC关注的是投资者保护和市场的公平性，因此对于加密货币的证券性质有严格的考量。若以太坊被归类为证券，可能会导致更多的法律和监管要求，增加项目运营的复杂性和成本。这对加密市场而言，可能会带来短期的不确定性，但从长远来看，明确的监管框架有助于市场的成熟和稳健发展。
In Guo Tao’s view, the US SEC’s approach to the approval of the Taiyo spot ETF reflects its caution with regard to the regulation of the cryptographic currency market. The SEC’s concern about investor protection and market fairness has led to a strict consideration of the securities nature of the encrypted currency. The classification of the portal as securities may lead to additional legal and regulatory requirements, adding to the complexity and cost of the project’s operation.
责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳
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