上演“黑色星期二”,虚拟货币市场再遇暴跌。9月14日,北京商报记者注意到,比特币于9月13日晚再次失守2万美元关口,最低下探至19998美元,日内跌幅10%,月内跌幅18%。截至9月14日15时43分,比特币最新价格报20236美元,日内跌幅仍达9.18%。
“Black Tuesday,” the virtual currency market fell again. On September 14, a Beijing newspaper reporter noticed that Bitcoin had once again lost 20,000 dollars on the night of September 13, with a minimum of US$ 19998, a 10 per cent drop in the day and an 18 per cent drop in the month. As of September 14, at 1543 hours, Bitcoin’s latest price was US$ 20236 and a 9.18 per cent drop in the day.
以太坊同样未能幸免,从9月13日晚同样开启断崖式下跌,一路跌破1700美元、1600美元,最低下探至1562美元;截至9月14日11时,价格报1599美元,日内跌幅6.29%,月内跌幅近20%;再至当日15时43分,最新价格略有回升,报1612美元,日内跌幅6.02%。
It was also not spared that, from the night of 13 September, when it also opened a cliff break down, falling by $1,700, $1,600, down to $1562; as at 11 September, the price was $1599, with a fall of 6.29 per cent in the day and nearly 20 per cent in the month; and as at 15.43, the latest price had recovered slightly, at $162 and a decline of 6.02 per cent in the day.
较比特币、以太坊下跌趋势更凶猛的,还有SOL、DOGE、MATIC等其他币种。其中, SOL最新价格报33.36美元,日内跌幅高达14%,月内跌幅达28%,年内跌幅更是达到81%;此外,曾被一众币民热捧的DOGE,最新价格报0.06美元,日内跌幅5.5%,价格一年内也已经跌去75%。
Among them, SOL’s latest price was $33.36, with a 14 per cent drop in the day, a 28 per cent decline in the month, and an 81 per cent decline in the year; in addition, the Doge, which was popularly popular with a single currency, had a recent price of $0.06, a 5.5 per cent decline in the day, and a 75 per cent fall in the year.
虚拟货币市场信心大挫
Virtual currency market confidence is frustrated.
回顾近年来价格变动,北京社科院研究员、中国人民大学智能社会治理研究中心研究员王鹏告诉北京商报记者,对于虚拟货币价格的暴涨暴跌早有预期。“尤其是那些没有底层资产,也没有应用场景支撑的虚拟货币,价格波动风险就会更大。”
Looking back at price changes in recent years, Wang Peng, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences and researcher at the Center for the Study of the Governance of Smart Society at the Chinese People’s University, told the Beijing Chamber of Commerce journalists that a sharp rise or fall in virtual currency prices was expected. “In particular, the risk of price volatility would be greater if there were no underlying assets and no virtual currency supported by the application of the scenario.”
从商品经济学原理来看,王鹏进一步解释,商品的价格由价值决定,供求影响价格。比特币交易是类似于金融衍生品的场外交易,缺少实体业务支撑。其价格上涨依靠“共识”,本身便不符合经济规律,加之近期市场行情波动、全球局势不稳定,因此也会打击币圈交易者信心引发抛售,也就造成了币价整体下跌。
In terms of commodity economics, Wang Peng further explained that commodity prices are determined by value, and that supply and demand influence prices. Bitcoin transactions are off-the-shelf transactions similar to financial derivatives, without physical support.
另对此次比特币、以太坊等币种的断崖式下跌现象,王鹏进一步分析了两方面的原因。一是在于这些虚拟货币币种本身价格虚高。
On the other hand, Wang Peng has further analysed the two reasons for this precipitous fall in bitcoins, ethoms, and so on. The first is that the virtual currencies themselves are inflated.
第二则是受国际相关政策和环境变化的影响。例如俄乌冲突、全球能源价格上涨,以及美国CPI指数公布之后,可能引发进一步加息的预期,在一定程度上来说,都会影响虚拟货币市场的信心。
Second, it is influenced by changes in international policies and the environment. For example, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the rise in global energy prices, and the publication of the US CPI index may trigger expectations of further interest hikes, which in part affect the confidence of virtual currency markets.
消息面上,市场一直期待的美国8月CPI数据公布,高于预期的8.1%。通胀数据公布后,美股股指期货跳水,纳指期货迅速跌超2%,道指期货、标普500指数期货分别跌1.1%和1.5%。不久后,美联储将召开9月议息会议,而最新的8月CPI报告将是会议前发布的最后一个重大数据,市场普遍预计决策者将在下次会议上连续第三次加息75个基点。
In the news, the market has been looking forward to the release of US CPI data in August, which is higher than the projected 8.1%. After inflation data were released, the US stock stock fell by more than 2% on futures and 1.1% and 1.5% on futures, respectively. In the near future, the Fed will hold a September wrap-up meeting, while the latest August CPI report will be the last major data to be released before the meeting, and the market generally expects policymakers to raise their interest for the third consecutive 75 basis points at the next meeting.
“受加息预期影响,虚拟货币市场也会信心大挫,另叠加没有相关的管理部门监管,没有相关的规则体系限制,就很容易出现相互踩踏,价格越跌抛售的人越多,抛售越多价格又会进一步下跌,从而市场会更恐慌,形成恶性循环,导致价格持续下跌。”王鹏说道。
“As a result of the expected interest hikes, virtual currency markets will also be frustrated with confidence, superimposed by the absence of relevant regulatory regulations and rules, there will be an easy chance of each other stepping on each other, and the more the price drops, the more the price drops, the more the market will panic, the vicious circle will be created, and prices will continue to fall.” Wang Ping said.
47933人被爆仓13.89亿元
Four thousand nine hundred and thirty-three have been laid in a warehouse of 1,389 million dollars.
这一次虚拟货币价格的突然暴跌,也打了不少币民个措手不及。
This time, the price of virtual currency suddenly fell, and a lot of money was caught by surprise.
币价暴跌之下,北京商报记者注意到,不少开杠杆的合约币民遭当头棒喝。从爆仓情况来看,亏损人群中更多为对行情看多的投资者。
The price of the currency has fallen sharply, and the Beijing newspaper reporters have noticed that a lot of leveraged contract money is being drunk. In view of the explosion, the losses are more frequent among investors who see a lot of behavior.
据币圈行情网站非小号的数据,截至9月14日11时,最近24小时共有47933人爆仓,爆仓金额达13.89亿元人民币。而这一数据还在加剧,截至当日下午15时53分,仍有47810人被爆仓,13.73亿元资金“灰飞烟灭”。
At 1100 hours on 14 September, a total of 47,933 people had exploded in the last 24 hours, amounting to RMB 1,389 million. This figure is still on the rise, with 47,810 people still on the ground at 15.53 p.m. and $1,373 million “out of ash” money.
目前,币圈所称的合约交易,又称期货交易,是一种将交易品远期交易的模式。一是既能做多又能做空,可双向获利;二是可以加杠杆,以小博大。通过合约交易及交易所推出的上百甚至上千倍杠杆,本就波动巨大的币市也变得更加危险疯狂。
At present, what the currency circles refer to as contract transactions, or futures transactions, is a model for forward trading of tradables. First, it can do more than one, but it can profit both ways; and second, it can leverage, and it can do more.
“这一部分爆仓的人,还是有很强的投机属性,大多抱着一夜暴富的心理,通过场外配资以及各种杠杆工具,想着搏一把,在短时间内获得更高的收益,但要注意的是,一旦押错赌注,再出现这种暴涨暴跌的情况,被爆仓者将会赔得很惨。这么高的爆仓金额,也反映了这类投资者对风险的认知不足。”王鹏评价道。
“This part of the banger still has a strong speculative character, most of which, with a one-night rush of wealth, tries to earn a higher return in a short period of time through out-of-the-horizon financing and various leverage tools, bearing in mind that, if a false bet is taken, the blowouter will suffer badly. Such a high amount of banging also reflects a lack of awareness of risk on the part of such investors.” Wang Peng’s assessment.
大众不应再抱侥幸心理
There's no need for the public to take advantage of it.
然而,尽管爆仓者众,但还是有不少小白涌入币圈。在多位业内人士看来,后续,除了严防机构违法行为外,大众也需要构建自己的认知水准,不要轻易被所谓的高额利润所诱惑。做好消费者教育非常重要,特别是老年人及部分中年人,要正确看待“虚拟货币”,切忌听信夸张宣传。
In the view of many in the industry, in addition to preventing institutional irregularities, the general public also needs to build its own level of awareness and not be tempted by so-called high profits. It is important that consumers’ education, especially the elderly and some middle-aged, take a proper look at “virtual money” and listen to exaggerated propaganda.
王鹏同样告诉北京商报记者,无论是机构还是个人,还是要回归初心和本源,一定要意识到风险和收益成正比,没有稳赚不赔的买卖。要充分认识到比特币等虚拟货币的风险与本质,不要抱着侥幸心理,顶着违法的风险进行相关操作。
Wang Peng also told Beijing merchant journalists, whether institutional or personal, and to return to their originals and sources, to be aware of the risks and benefits, and not to make a priceless sale. To be fully aware of the risks and nature of virtual currency, such as Bitcoin, do not operate with a sense of luck and against the risk of breaking the law.
北京商报记者 刘四红返回搜狐,查看更多
Beijing Business Journal journalist Liu
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