曾经炙手可热、火遍全球的比特币随着行情急转直下，已经淡出公众视野很久。不过，最近比特币市场接二连三传来利好消息，让坚守的比特币玩家又看到希望。比特币会再次火起来吗？
Bitcoin, which used to be hot and hot all over the world, has been out of public view for a long time. But, in recent times, good news has come from the Bitcoin market, giving hope to the hardcore bitcoin player again. Will Bitcoin get back on fire?
比特币被视作大宗商品
Bitcoin is considered to be a bulk commodity
今年4月，支付平台PayPal宣布允许所有合作商家支持比特币支付；5月19日，纽约证券交易所正式推出比特币指数。更早，美国已经有颁发牌照的交易所，戴尔、微软和乐天美国等大公司也宣布支持比特币支付。
Last April, the payment platform PayPal announced that all partners would be allowed to support Bitcoin payments; on May 19, the New York Stock Exchange officially launched the Bitcoin Index. Earlier, the United States already had a licensed exchange, and major companies like Dale, Microsoft, and Lotten America announced their support for Bitcoin payments.
上周，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）发布文件，首次把比特币和其他虚拟货币合理定义为大宗商品，与原油或小麦的归类一样。这意味着比特币期货和期权要符合CFTC的规定并接受监管，交易行为需要遵守所有大宗商品衍生品市场规则。如果发生市场操纵等不正当行为，CFTC将能够对此行为进行惩罚。业内人士认为，这表明美国官方已经承认比特币的价值，这种创新的虚拟货币与原油、小麦等大宗商品拥有同等的地位，不过也同时打消了把虚拟货币归为证券的想法。
Last week, the United States Commission on Commodity Futures Trading (CFTC) issued a paper that, for the first time, reasonably defined Bitcoin and other virtual currencies as bulk commodities, as in the case of crude oil or wheat. This means that Bitcoin futures and options are subject to regulation and are subject to the rules of all commodity derivatives markets.
美国首现ETF投资比特币
America's first ETF investment in bitcoin
美国一家ETF管理公司在上周首次购买了比特币资产，比特币作为另类投资资产的价值再次引起关注。
The value of Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset was again of concern when an ETF management company in the United States first purchased Bitcoin assets last week.
9月15日，美国ETF管理公司Ark Invest旗下互联网主题基金ARK网络X.0ETF首次购买了比特币资产——比特币投资信托（Bitcoin Investment Trust，GBTC），这也是全球首只以某种形式拥有比特币资产的ETF。
On 15 September, the Internet-based thematic fund ARK Network X.0ETF, under the banner of Ark Invest, the United States ETF management, first purchased Bitcoin Investment Trust, which is the first global ETF to own Bitcoin assets only in one form or another.
据了解， ARK旗下的网络X.0ETF专注于投资改变经济的破坏性公司，包括移动互联网、本地化的互联网技术发展。该ETF投资的比特币资产为场外交易的比特币投资信托，并以每日下午4点该信托的估值计算资产价值。
It is understood that ARK’s network X.0ETF focuses on investing in disruptive companies that transform the economy, including mobile Internet, localized Internet technology development. The ETF’s investment of Bitcoin assets is the Bitcoin Investment Trust, which is traded off-the-shelf and calculates the value of the assets using the valuation of the Trust at 4 p.m. per day.
ARK创始人及首席投资官凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）在一份声明中指出：“我们相信比特币作为一种货币以及电子平台的价值，而目前的比特币是一个合适的买入时点。”
In a statement, the founder and chief investment officer of ARK, Casey Wood, stated: “We believe in the value of Bitcoin as a currency and an electronic platform, and the current bitcoin is a suitable point of purchase.”
但是，业内人士建议投资者一定要仔细阅读这一交易代码为“ARKW”的ETF的细则，因为这一ETF的细节可能与大家想象的不一样。
However, industry suggests that investors have to read carefully the ETF rule that the transaction code is “ARKW”, because the details of this ETF may not be the same as you thought.
首先，它并不是单单只投资比特币。尽管它宣称会投资比特币，事实上比特币只占其投资的一小部分，此外它并不是投资真实的比特币，而只是入股一家大多数人都从未听说过的比特币投资信托公司（Bitcoin Investment Trust）。这家公司5月份开始从事粉单交易，股票代码为“GBTC。”它的市值低于4000万美元，交易量也很少。此外，此项投资并未真实反映出比特币价格，信托公司股价已呈现上升甚至飙升状态，但比特币底层价格仍很平静。
In the first place, it does not invest only bitcoins. Although it claims to invest bitcoins, in fact bitcoins account for only a fraction of its investment, it does not invest real bitcoins, but only the Bitcoin Investment Trust, a company that most people have never heard of. The company started trading in powder sheets in May, with a stock code of “GBTC.” It has a market value of less than $40 million and a small amount of transactions.
专家认为比特币长期前景看好
experts think Bitcoin's long-term outlook is good
最近这些好消息是否预示比特币价格出现拐点？有分析认为，目前比特币仍然仅被视作一种投机性资产。全球市场动荡加剧，资金流向更稳定、风险更低的投资领域的趋势也可能对比特币的价格产生负面影响。不过，机构开始布局此类资产，也显示了比特币长期可能具有投资价值。
Are these recent good news signs that bitcoin prices are at a turning point? There is an analysis that bitcoin is still regarded as a mere speculative asset.
财经专栏作家肖磊认为，比特币今后不会太火，但也可能时不时成为焦点。一旦出现股市震荡、大宗商品震荡以及地缘性政治发生的危机，都会影响比特币的走势。比如从以往经验看，股市走好，比特币价格就出现较大回落，比特币市场资金可能继续流出。投资比特币一定要注意短期内的波动风险。
The financial columnist Shaw argues that Bitcoin will not be too hot in the future, but may also be the focus of attention from time to time. When stock market shocks, commodity shocks and geopolitical crises occur, they affect the movement of Bitcoin.
肖磊表示，比特币现在在全球范围内没有统一的定性，有的国家定性为电子货币，有的定性为商品，所以从目前来看，比特币也不会像当初那么火爆。不过，长期而言前景看好。
Shaw said that Bitcoin is now not defined globally as a uniform characterization, either as an electronic currency or as a commodity, so for the time being, Bitcoin is not as hot as it used to be. But, in the long run, the outlook is good.
新闻内存
News Memory
目前比特币80%交易量用人民币完成
Currently 80% of Bitcoin transactions are done in renminbi
中国的投机客如今已经成了比特币的主要玩家之一。今年3月，高盛一份关于货币未来的报告中写道，“目前80%的比特币交易量都由人民币完成”。
China’s speculators are now one of the main players in Bitcoin. Last March, Goldman Sachs wrote in a report on the future of the currency that “80% of the bitcoin transactions are currently done by the renminbi.”
作为一种新型商品或货币交易中介，比特币近两年的走势只能用“一泻千里”来形容。比特币创建于2009年，后来中国也出现不少比特币交易平台。在2013年9月到11月短短3个月期间，比特币价格从800元上涨到8000元。2013年12月5日，央行等五部委印发了《关于防范比特币风险的通知》，当天比特币交易量放大，价格跌到5000元至6000元之间震荡。10天之后，央行禁止第三方支付机构与比特币交易结算的消息不断出现，比特币价格迅速大幅下跌到2000元附近。此后，比特币行情更加疲弱，今年1月曾跌至1000元/个。今年上半年一直在1500元附近上下徘徊，未有较大突破。7月中旬，随着希腊危机的恶化，比特币价格出现一波快速上涨。7月10日之后的几天，比特币价格从1700元/个最高涨至2222元/个。随后，由于希腊与欧元区达成新的协议，比特币继续下挫。截至昨天，比特币人民币现货交易价格在1465元/个左右，还不足峰值8000元的两成。
On 5 December 2013, five ministries, including the Central Bank, issued a Notice on Protection against Bitcoin Risk, which increased the volume of Bitcoin on that day and fell between $5,000 and $6,000. Ten days later, the Central Bank’s news of a ban on third-party payment agencies’ dealings with Bitcoin fell rapidly to 2,000 yuan. After that time, Bitcoin prices fell even weaker from $1,700/dollars to $1,000/dollars in January. There was no major breakthrough in the first half of the year. As the Greek crisis worsened, the price of bitcoins rose rapidly.
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