主持人：BCH今天减半，BTC也将在35天左右减半。我们也看到BCH今天的价格波动较大。有的人认为减半导致供给减少，价格将上涨;也有人认为“利好出尽是利空”，减半的利好已经提前反映到价格里，也就是已经price
in了，减半后价格将下跌。请问江总怎么看?
Moderator: BCH is cut by half today, and BTC is about to halve in 35 days. We also see BCH price volatility today. Some people think that halving has led to a reduction in supply and that prices will rise; others think that “profit is profit is profit”, and the benefits of halving are already reflected in the price, i.e., already price is in, and prices will fall.
江卓尔：这个问题每一轮减半都会有人问。在上一次2016年的减半，我是这样回答的：减半并不是一个消息性利好，而是一个实质性、持续性的利好。
Jiangchael: The question will be asked of each round by half. The last time in 2016, I said this: halving is not a good news, but a real, sustainable benefit.
什么叫持续性利好?例如有个石油公司发现了一个新油田，那这个石油公司的股价，会在新油田投产以后，上涨还是下跌?股价当然会随着油田的开采，公司利润的增加而上涨，而不是下跌，因为新油田开采是一个持续性，能带来持续性收入的利好。
What do you mean, "continuing good"? For example, an oil company discovers a new oil field, and the stock price of this oil company will rise or fall when the new oil field comes into operation?
比特币减半的利好也是一样的，一旦减半开始，就相当于有一个大富翁，每天固定买入900个比特币并销毁，持续时间为永久。尤其是在目前金融危机，缺乏资金和买入信心的情况下，这个“大富翁”的买入资金，是非常宝贵的，将直接改变市场的供需资金对比。
The benefits of halving bitcoin are the same, and once halved, it is equivalent to a millionaire who buys 900 bitcoins per day in a fixed way and destroys them for a permanent period of time. Especially in the face of the current financial crisis, lack of money, and lack of confidence in buying, this “rich” buy-in is valuable, and will directly change the comparison between supply and demand in the market.
因此，我认为减半将导致币价上涨。
I therefore believe that halving it will lead to an increase in currency prices.
至于认为减半利好已经price in的观点，只要拿历史数据检验一下就可以了。
As for the view that the half-percent benefit is already in price, it is only possible to test it with historical data.
2016年减半时，币价涨了50倍，明显减半利好没有price in。为什么没有price
in?因为比特币还在飞速的发展中，用户不断地增加，未来2年内大部分用户，现在都还不在。既然连人都不在市场中，那就更谈不上price in了。
By the time the price was halved in 2016, it was 50 times higher, apparently less than the price in. Why not the price in? Because Bitcoin is growing at a fast pace, and most users are not here in the next two years. Not to mention the fact that even people are not in the market.
主持人：去年LTC减半前暴涨，减半后暴跌，跌接近减半前位置，BCH也会重复这一历史吗?
Moderator: Will the BCH repeat the history of the sharp rise of the LTC before it was halved last year, its collapse after halving, and its fall near the pre-half position?
江卓尔：LTC减半后几乎跌回减半前位置，是因为LTC减半的时间点还是熊市周期，这点我们在2015年和2019年两次LTC减半，都能看到非常类似的走势。2019年几乎就是2015年的翻版。
Jiangchael: The fact that LTC nearly halved back to its pre-50 status is because LTC has a time-to-half or a bear-market cycle, and we can see a very similar trend by halving LTC twice in 2015 and 2019. The year 2019 is almost the year of the 2015 reprint.
由于BTC占了70%以上总市值，因此必须在BTC减半后，牛市才会开启，LTC减半无法开启牛市，因此在上涨后，又跌回去了。BCH和BTC的减半时间接近，因此将共同享受这一轮减半牛市，BCH并不会跌回去。
Since BTC accounts for more than 70% of the total market value, the cow market will have to be halved before it can open, and the LTC will not open, and then fall back after it rises. The BCH and BTC are nearly halved, so that the BCH will enjoy the same round by half, and the BCH will not fall back.
主持人：因新冠肺炎，全球股市等资产价格大幅下跌，这种金融危机对比特币是好事还是坏事?
Moderator: Is it a good thing or a bad thing about the financial crisis, that asset prices such as the global stock market have fallen sharply as a result of the new coronary pneumonia?
江卓尔：这对比特币是非常大的利好，别看比特币因此在3月12日大幅下跌，但这次金融危机，将大幅提升比特币在本轮牛市的最高价。
Jiangchael: This is very good for bitcoin, not to look at it as a result of which Bitcoin fell sharply on March 12th, but the financial crisis will raise Bitcoin’s best price in the city.
假设没有发生本次金融危机时，比特币在本轮牛市的最高价为10万美元，那发生了金融危机后，比特币的最高价将达到20万，甚至30万美元。因为金融危机将使得政府印钞放水救市，而比特币就诞生于2008年次贷危机中，就是为了对抗政府印钞而生。在美联储印钞数万亿美元的情况下，比特币的价值将被市场证明。
Assuming that by the time this financial crisis did not occur, Bitcoin would have been worth $100,000 at the highest price in the city, which would have been $200,000, or even $300,000, in the wake of the financial crisis. Because the financial crisis would have caused the government to put money on the market, Bitcoin was born in 2008 in a subprime loan crisis to counter the government’s printing of money.
主持人：BCH在发展中，对于BTC等其他币种，有什么优势?
Moderator: What are the advantages of BCH in development for other currencies such as BTC?
江卓尔：BCH和其它币种的主要分歧是，应该达到什么样的去中心化程度。
Jiangchall: The main difference between the BCH and other currencies is what degree of decentralisation should be achieved.
BTC的开发团队Core认为必须达到非常高的去中心化，必须树莓派(Raspberry
Pi)这种微型电脑也能运行比特币节点，因此他们坚持区块1M不扩容。
The BTC development team, Core, believed that it was necessary to reach a very high level of decentralisation and that microcomputers such as Raspberry Pi could also run bitcoin nodes, so they insisted that block 1M should not be expanded.
但是，过犹不及，例如喝水是必须的，但如果你喝太多水，也会导致水中毒。区块大小也是一样的，区块大小只要不超过普通电脑的性能上限就可以，目前这个上限大概是100M。只要区块大小不导致普通电脑无法运行，那就没有中心化问题。
But too much is necessary, for example, to drink water, but if you drink too much water, it can also cause water poisoning. The size of the block is the same, as long as it does not exceed the average computer performance limit, which is currently about 100M. There is no centralization as long as the size of the block does not render the normal computer unwieldy.
BTC坚持过分小的区块，过度的去中心化，将导致能容纳用户数的下降，没有足够多的用户，无法和BCH竞争，最后反而会因为体量较小，而导致中心化。
BTC's insistence on too small a block and over-centralization will lead to a decline in the number of users that can accommodate, do not have enough users to compete with the BCH, and eventually centralize because of their smaller size.
BSV犯的错误是类似的，BSV要求过分大，甚至无限大的区块，这将导致对节点性能要求过高，节点数量太少，甚至只剩下几个大节点，这样比特币的去中心化，就荡然无存了。
The BSV made a similar mistake, and the BSV required too large, even an unlimited number of blocks, which would lead to excessive node performance requirements, too few nodes, and even a few large nodes, so that Bitcoin would be de-centralized and there would be nothing left.
只有适当的才是最好的，BCH的区块大小既不太大，也不太小，才是最好的区块。
Only the right ones are the best, and the BCH blocks are neither large nor small, but the best ones.
美化布局示例
币安(Binance)最新版本
币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费！
APP下载
官网地址
火币HTX最新版本
火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费！
APP下载
官网地址
发表评论