这些天，比特币ETF一直是大家讨论的焦点。数字货币市场需要一个利好爆点，并且投资者们也坚信机构的资金会通过ETF进入币市。很多人将这段时间的大跌归咎于SEC再次推迟了比特币ETF。毫无疑问，对于比特币ETF来说，现在有太多的不确定和问题。
These days, the Bitcoin ETF has been the focus of discussion. The digital money market needs a good spot, and investors are convinced that the agency’s funds will enter the currency through the ETF.
为了解释最近在发生什么，此文尝试解释ETF的运作方式。然后，讨论主要的两种比特币ETF以及ETF是如何影响市场的。
To explain what's happening recently, this paper attempts to explain how ETF works. Then discuss how the two main bitcoin ETFs and ETFs influence the market.
什么是ETF？
What's ETF?
ETF（交易所交易基金）是一种证券产品，它可以跟踪一些相关的资产，不论是股票、债券、商品，还是数字货币。
ETF is a securities product that can track related assets, whether stocks, bonds, commodities or digital currencies.
ETF基金会负责跟踪指定的资产。然后放出部分股份，这些股份代表着对资产的拥有权。
The ETF Foundation is responsible for tracking the assigned assets.
交易ETF股份和普通股票一样容易，并且可以解决很多投资者面临的问题。例如比特币投资，其中的问题包括身份认证、高昂的转账费用，还有转账延迟等。
The transaction of ETF shares is as easy as ordinary shares and solves the problems faced by many investors. For example, Bitcoin investments, which include identification, high transfer costs, and delays in transfers.
ETF是怎么创建的？
How the ETF was created?
当某个ETF想要创造对应基金的新股份，它会通过授权参与经纪人（AP）来进行。授权参与经纪人是负责购买ETF，想要持有的相关资产的人。他们需要从ETF提供方获得认证。大部分是有着很强购买力的金融机构。
When an ETF wants to create a new equity share in the counterpart fund, it does so by authorizing the participating broker (AP). The authorized broker is the person who buys the ETF and wants to hold the assets in question. They need certification from the ETF provider.
下面就是基本的步骤：
The following are the basic steps:
1.授权参与经纪人开始购买相关资产。例如，如果某个ETF想要追踪S&P500,那么这个授权参与者就需要对基于指数权重的每个股票数量进行购买。 2.授权参与经纪人会把资产发给ETF提供商。 3.相反，ETF提供商会把股份发回给授权参与经纪人。这些股份的价值和ETF提供商收到的资产是等值的。
1. Authorizes the participating broker to begin purchasing the relevant assets. For example, if an ETF wants to track S&P500, the authorized participant will need to purchase the amount of each stock based on the index weight. 2. Authorizes the participating broker to send the assets to the ETF provider. 3. On the contrary, ETF offers the Chamber of Commerce to return the shares to the authorized participating broker. The value of these shares is equal to the assets received by the ETF provider.
ETF如何兑付？
How does the ETF pay?
兑付程序正好是相反的。 1.授权参与经纪人会把想要兑现的ETF股份发给ETF提供商。 2.ETF提供商就会把相关资产还给授权参与经纪人。
The payment process is the opposite. 1. Authorized brokers will send the ETF shares that they want to cash out to the ETF provider. 2. ETF providers will return the assets to the authorized broker.
ETF是如何保证它的价格和相关资产是一样的？
How does ETF ensure that its prices and related assets are the same?
因为ETF类似股票交易，由于供需的变化，它的价格会根据交易日进行波动。
Because ETF deals are similar to stocks, its prices fluctuate according to the date of the transaction due to changes in supply and demand.
有时候，价格会比相关资产或者净资产高。这时候，这个ETF就被称为溢价交易。相反，就被称为折价交易。
Sometimes the price is higher than the asset in question or the net asset. At this point, the ETF is referred to as a premium transaction. On the contrary, it is referred to as a discount transaction.
授权参与经纪人会在溢价和折价之间进行套利，从而保证市场价格和净值密切相关。
Authorized brokers can arbitrage between premiums and discounts, thus ensuring that market prices and net worth are closely linked.
让我们来看看这是如何运作的。
Let's see how this works.
如果ETF的价格超过了资产净值
If the ETF price exceeds the net asset value
授权参与经纪人会去购买一些相关资产，发给ETF提供商。ETF提供商会将新的股份给授权参与经纪人。然后，授权参与经纪人会把这些新的ETF股份发放到市场。
The authorized broker will purchase some of the related assets and issue them to the ETF provider.
假设需求是不变的，如果供应提高了，那么ETF的价格就会降低，从而把它拉回到净值。
Assuming that demand is constant, if supply increases, the ETF price will be reduced, thus pulling it back to net value.
如果ETF的价格比净值低
If ETF's price is lower than net,
授权参与经纪人会购买一系列的ETF股票，然后兑现购买相关的资产。紧接着，经纪人就会按照净值的价格售卖这些资产，获得利润。再用这些利润购买更多的ETF股票。
The brokers are authorized to purchase a range of ETF shares and then cash in to purchase the related assets. The brokers then sell the assets at a net price and make a profit.
这样就会导致供给变少。假设需求是一样的，那么这会使得ETF的价格增加，将它推动到净值的价格。
This would result in less supply. Assuming demand is the same, it would increase ETF prices and push them into net prices.
那么比特币ETF是如何运行的呢？
So how's the Bitcoin ETF running?
现在我们理解了普通的ETF，接下来聊聊比特币ETF。
Now we understand the normal E.T.F., and then we talk about Bitcoin E.T.F.
1.持有比特币资产的ETF
1. ETFs with Bitcoin assets
这类ETF和我们说过的ETF类型相比，基本上是相同的。
This type of ETF is basically the same as the type of ETF we're talking about.
唯一的区别是，授权参与经纪人可以选择发出一揽子货币，而不是比特币。这对于很多授权参与经纪人来说，是很方便的，因为他们不想去购买并且持有比特币。
The only difference is that authorized brokers can choose to issue a basket of currencies instead of bitcoins. This is convenient for many authorized brokers, who do not want to buy and hold bitcoins.
那么当授权参与经纪人发送了一揽子货币之后，ETF提供商就会用这些货币来交易比特币。然后，供应商会将等值的ETF股份返还给授权参与经纪人，而且还会有更低的交易费率。
Then, when authorized participating brokers send a basket of money, the ETF providers trade bitcoins in those currencies. Then the suppliers return the equivalent ETF shares to the authorized participating brokers, and there will be lower transaction rates.
最近的ETF，是由VanEck and SolidX 公司发出的，正是按照这个模型来进行的。
The most recent ETF, issued by Van Eck and SolidX, is based on this model.
好处： ? 更低的交易费率 – 交易ETF相对是比较便宜的，特别是和比特币与法币之间高昂的手续费相比。 ? 跟踪比特币表现 – 因为这个ETF持有比特币，它也会跟踪比特币的表现。授权参与经纪人可以通过ETF和净值之间的价格差异进行套利，这也会防止大量的折价和溢价现象。 ? 市场流通性 – 比特币每天的交易量有十亿美金。对于市场兑现的风险应该不是很大。
Tracking bitcoin performance – because the ETF holds bitcoin, it will also track bitcoin’s performance. Authorized brokers can arbitrage through price differentials between the ETF and net worth, which will also prevent large discounts and premiums.
风险和顾虑： ? 交易对手风险 – ETF提供商也会持有比特币，而且必须要保证其安全，不会被盗窃。 ? 每股费用很高 – 很可能第一波ETF不会对散户开放。为了打消SEC的顾虑，去保护散户投资者，VanEck提出的比特币ETF价格是25个BTC。 ? 更高的花销比例 – 比特币ETF很可能会比普通ETF费用更高。因为如果授权参与经纪人选择通过一篮子货币来进行申请，赎回ETF，那么他们需要支付更高的费用。目前，VanEck打算对任何创建和赎回ETF股票收取1000美金的手续费。 ? 不确定的基金净值 – 赎回是基于基金净值的，所以不稳定的净值会影响到套利机制。大多数ETF的净值是每天计算的。但是由于比特币市场波动很大，则需要使用日内净值。例如，VanEck ETF打算使用MVIS比特币指数，这个指数每15秒更新一次。但是，确定净值依然很困难，因为不同交易所的价格也会不同。 ? 市场对ETF关闭了，但是对比特币是开放的 – 交易ETF的市场可以关闭，但数字货币交易所可以是开放的。同时比特币价格也会大幅下跌，而且投资者无法在一个关闭的市场拿回损失。非即时性交易时间也会增加ETF价格和基金净值之间的差距。
Each share is expensive – probably the first wave of the ETF will not be open to the bulk. In order to dispel SEC concerns, Van Eckk offers a BTC price of 25 bitcoins. The higher proportion of costs – bitcoin ETFs – is likely to be higher than the average ETF. Because the authorized broker chooses to apply through a basket of money to redeem ETFs, they need to pay a higher fee. For example, Van Eckk intends to charge $1,000 to create and redeem ETF stocks.
2.购买比特币衍生品的ETF
2. ETFs for the purchase of bitcoin derivatives
第二种ETF不需要持有任何的比特币。这类ETF需要去通过交易比特币期货、期权等衍生品来追踪比特币的表现。
The second ETF does not need to hold any bitcoin.
Direxion ETF就是这样的案例，VanEck Vectors比特币ETF是另外一种。
This is the case of DireXion ETF, another type of Van Eck Vectors Bitcoin ETF.
好处： ? 这类基金不需要担心持有比特币的安全风险，因为他们没有真正持有任何比特币。
Such funds do not have to worry about the security risk of holding bitcoins because they do not really hold any bitcoins.
风险和顾虑： ? 估算比特币的表现 – 由于这类基金只能估算比特币的表现，可能会发生基金的回报比真实比特币的表现要偏差很大。
Risks and concerns: # Estimating the performance of Bitcoin - Since such a fund can only estimate the performance of bitcoin, the return of the fund may be significantly more uneven than the performance of real bitcoin.
? 积极管理风险 – 对于任何主动管理型基金来说，其表现取决于基金管理者。如果尝试跟踪比特币的表现，那么基金管理者可能会没有比特币的收益高。
Actively managing risk – For any proactively managed fund, performance depends on the fund manager. If you try to track Bitcoin’s performance, the fund manager may have no higher returns than Bitcoin.
? 积极管理成本 – 主动管理基金比起被动基金，会收取更高的服务费。这也被称为管理费用比率。
Actively managed costs - Actively managed funds charge higher service charges than passive funds. This is also referred to as the administrative cost ratio.
? 保证金风险 – 期货合约需要你持有一定的资产，这个被称为保证金。如果保证金没有达到这个要求，那么交易所就会要求追加。如果没有足够的现金或等价物，那么期货合约就会被平仓，造成对资产的直接损失。市场的波动很可能会导致这类事件的发生。甚至相对较小的价格波动，也会导致很大的损失。想象下比特币的波动性，如果没有处理正确，那么这将会是巨大的损失。更糟糕的是，对于期货交易所，甚至会操控价格，来让用户爆仓。
• Bond risk – A futures contract requires you to hold certain assets, which is called a bond. If the bond fails to meet this requirement, the exchange will demand additional. If there is not enough cash or equivalent, the futures contract will be levelled off, causing direct losses to the assets. Market volatility is likely to lead to such events. Even relatively small price fluctuations can lead to significant losses. Imagine the volatility of Bitcoins, if not properly handled, that would be a huge loss. Worse still, for futures exchanges, prices would even be manipulated to allow users to blow up.
? 杠杆交易风险 – 杠杆交易所意味着尽管是很小的价格波动，也会导致资金受到很大影响。
• Leverage trade risks - Leverage exchanges mean that, despite very small price fluctuations, they can also have a significant impact on finance.
? 展期风险 –许多期货合约在期货交易过程中被转换为期货交易，这就被称为展期。这样可以让期货合约不过期，从而可以进行结算。如果合约期货价格比目标价格高，那么投资者就会损失，这被称为期货溢价。
• Extension risk – Many futures contracts are converted into futures transactions over a period of time in the course of futures transactions, which is called extension. This allows futures contracts to remain open, so that they can be settled. If the futures price is higher than the target price, investors lose, which is called futures premium.
为什么SEC选择继续延迟ETF？
Why did SEC choose to keep delaying ETF?
SEC其实延迟了任何比特币ETF的申请。在2018年1月，SEC指出了为何延迟ETF的原因。那篇文章非常长，我们在此总结以下几个重点。
In January 2018, the SEC pointed out the reasons for the delay. The article was very long, and we would like to summarize the following points.
估值 ? 对资产净值进行正确地估值，这是很重要的。因为它会决定授权参与经纪人需要在创建或者赎回过程中，发出或者收回的资金数量。SEC担心这点，因为数字货币的价格波动性很大，并且交易所的价格是没有联系的，所以资产净值的估值方法并不准确。 套利（对于ETF来说）
The correct valuation of the net value of the assets is important because it determines the amount of money that the brokers involved are authorized to issue or recover during the creation or redemption process. SEC is concerned about this, because the price of the digital currency is highly volatile and the exchange price is not linked, so the valuation method for the net value of the assets is not accurate. arbitrage (for ETF)
? 因为资产净值不准确，市场波动大，SEC担心套利机制，这种保持ETF价格和资产净值的必要手段，可能会失效。
Because of the inaccuracy of the net value of the assets and the volatility of the market, SEC fears that the arbitrage mechanism, which is necessary to maintain the ETF price and the net value of the assets, may be ineffective.
流动性 ? SEC担心每天大量的赎回，在数字货币这样一个比较动荡的市场，会成为常态。
SEC fears that a lot of redemption will become normal in a more volatile market such as digital currency.
? SEC也担心基于ETF的期货会占据比特币期货市场过多的份额，会影响资金的使用效率和流动性。
SEC is also concerned that ETF-based futures will account for an excessive share of the Bitcoin futures market, which will affect the efficiency and liquidity of the use of funds.
资金保管 ? SEC担心ETF不能保护对比特币的网络攻击。
SEC is concerned that ETF cannot protect Bitcoin's cyber attacks.
? SEC也担心ETF会持有任何比特币衍生品。
SEC is also concerned that ETF will hold any bitcoin derivatives.
潜在的操纵和其他风险 ? SEC担心，数字货币市场没有监管，市场操纵泛滥
SEC fears that the digital money market is unregulated and market manipulation is widespread.
未来的发展
Future developments
持有比特币的ETF > 交易比特币衍生品的ETF
ETF & gt; trading Bitcoin derivatives
在读完SEC对于比特币ETF提案的文件后，我更倾向于那些持有比特币的ETF。
After reading the SEC paper on the Bitcoin ETF proposal, I prefer those with bitcoin.
很显然，ETF最大的问题在于持有比特币本身就是风险。但是我相信解决比特币的保管风险，要比解决追踪比特币交易衍生品要简单很多。
Clearly, the biggest problem with the ETF is that holding bitcoin is a risk in itself. But I believe it is much easier to address the risk of keeping bitcoin than to trace bitcoin trading derivatives.
就像我们之前提到的，投资者需要给予这些基金很大的信任，来预估使用衍生品时，比特币的表现。这会更加不透明，成本更高，并且很小的价格波动会有很大的影响，因为这其中包含了杠杆交易。
As we have mentioned earlier, investors need to give these funds a great deal of trust to estimate the performance of bitcoin in the use of derivatives. This will be more opaque, more costly, and very small price fluctuations will have a great impact, because they include leverage transactions.
比特币ETF需要在他们能够吸引机构投资者之前，保持基金净值的稳定。
BitcoinETF needs to stabilize the net value of the Fund before they can attract institutional investors.
我们现在已经高估了从比特币ETF能够流入的法币资金。有的文章，使用了很夸张的数学方法，来估计ETF会引入2400个投资者，同时还有4200亿美金的资金流，这似乎一夜之间就完成了。
We have now overestimated the amount of French money that can flow from the Bitcoin ETF. Some articles, using exaggerated mathematical methods, estimate that the ETF will bring in 2400 investors, and $420 billion in financial flows, which seems to be done overnight.
事实上，很多机构投资者在讨论到投资数字货币的时候，仍然是模棱两可的。他们不会在有巨大溢价的时候，贸然投资比特币ETF。
In fact, many institutional investors are still ambiguous when they talk about investment in digital currencies. They do not venture into bitcoin ETFs when they have a huge premium.
Grayscale的比特币信托，7月份在溢价50%的基础上进行交易。这和我们之前所说的问题相似。对于授权参与经纪人来说，需要花费很长时间来让ETF的价格稳定在资产净值附近。
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust, which was traded in July on a 50% premium basis. This is similar to what we said earlier. For authorized brokers, it takes a long time to stabilize ETF prices near the net value of assets.
比特币ETF可能会有很高的费用比率
BitcoinETF could have a very high cost ratio.
需要有人要来承担从法币到比特币的交易成本。也有人需要承担安全持有的成本。
There is a need for someone to bear the transaction costs from French to bitcoin. There is also a need for someone to bear the costs of security holding.
SPDR S&P 500 基金每年需要收取0.09%的费用。比特币ETF需要收取1-3%的费用。
The SPDR S&P 500 fund charges 0.09% per year.
数字货币ETF指数还差的很远
The digital currency ETF index is far from there.
SEC对流动性，估值和持有比特币安全性已经很担忧了。想象下，如果通过排名前20的数字货币来打造ETF，这会是非常困难的。
SEC is already worried about liquidity, valuation and the security of holding bitcoins. Imagine that it would be very difficult to build ETFs through the top 20 digital currencies.
这其实也表达了使用ETF的主要好处之一：可以对很大且多样化的资产获得部分所有权的能力。如果你想要让投资组合包含前20的数字货币，你需要自己持有这些基础资产。
This is also an expression of one of the main benefits of using the ETF: the ability to acquire some ownership over large and diverse assets. If you want the portfolio to include the top 20 digital currencies, you need to own these basic assets.
对于比特币价格的影响
Impact on Bitcoin prices
持有比特币，而不是比特币衍生品的ETF对于比特币价格会有很大的影响。
ETFs that hold bitcoins rather than bitcoins would have a significant impact on bitcoins prices.
散户投资者需要等待
Soldier investors need to wait.
为了解决SEC的担忧，很多ETF都表示他们的投资散户无法承担。VanEck提出的比特币ETF，最低购买价格是25个BTC。SEC应该会在ETF对散户开放之前，先从机构这边进行试水。
In order to address the concerns of the SEC, many ETFs say that their investors cannot afford it. Van Eckk proposes a bitcoin ETF, with a minimum purchase price of 25 BTCs. SEC should test water from the agency before the ETF opens up.
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