近90%的涨幅用了短短不到两个月，这年头恐怕只有虚拟货币能够造出这种耸动的故事。
Nearly 90 per cent of the increase took less than two months, and it is feared that only virtual currency will produce such a sensational story.
以比特币为代表的虚拟货币近日再现“高光时刻”。3月12日，比特币最高72890美元/枚，约52.3万元人民币/枚，日内涨超5%，再创新高。
The virtual currency, represented by Bitcoin, has recently reappeared as a “highlight moment”. On March 12, Bitcoin reached a maximum of $72890, or about RMB 523,000, or more than 5 per cent per day, and was re-innovated.
事实上，这波涨势已经持续了一阵子。自1月23日比特币价格进入上涨区间，从当天的38554美元到3月12日，涨幅超86%。
In fact, this wave has been rising for a while. From January 23, Bitcoin prices entered the upswing zone, from $38554 the same day to March 12, an increase of more than 86 per cent.
狂飙的价格诱惑着不少投资者又开始蠢蠢欲动。掐准了这些企图一夜暴富者的命脉，近日各大社交平台上，一群“教你如何‘炒币’”的博主再度粉墨登场。
High prices tempt many investors to start acting stupidly again. Scratch the lives of those who seek to be rich overnight. On social platforms in recent days, a group of bloggers, “teaching you how to ‘coat’,’ have reappeared.
表面的热闹下，风险的暗流时刻涌动。不仅是如过山车一般的价格波动，让绝大多数普通投资者的心脏和钱包吃不消；在国内炒作虚拟货币，不仅不合法，且各类的“擦边”诈骗层出不穷，稍不小心或许让你血本无归，还会触碰法律的高压线。
The surface is full of heat, and the risk of dark currents rushes at all times. Not only is price volatility like that of a mountain-rider that keeps the hearts and wallets of the vast majority of ordinary investors from eating; domestic counterfeiting of virtual money is not only illegal, but it is also a variety of “frogging” frauds that may have caused you to lose your blood, but it also touches the high line of law.
疯涨的比特币
比特币这波涨势已经持续了快两个月。Coindesk统计数据显示，不到两个月时间内，比特币价格就从1月23日的38554美元上涨至3月12日的72000美元上方，涨幅超86%。
The surge in Bitcoin has been going on for almost two months. Coindisk statistics show that in less than two months, the price of Bitcoin rose from $38554 on 23 January to over $72,000 on 12 March, an increase of over 86 per cent.
上一个“高光时刻”发生在两年多以前，2021年11月，比特币曾创下每枚68999.99美元的纪录。直到今年的3月5日晚间，比特币突破6.9万美元，此后更是节节上探，多次摸新高。
The last “highlight moment” took place more than two years ago, and in November 2021, Bitcoin created a record of $689.99.99 per piece. Until the evening of March 5, bitcoin broke 69,000 dollars, and then went on to explore the festivals and find new heights.
这波上涨行情背后的逻辑也较为清晰。一是比特币现货ETF发行为市场带来更多增量资金。2024年1月11日，美国证监会正式批准了包括贝莱德等机构在内的11只比特币现货ETF申请。在此之前，加密货币市场上的投资人以“散兵游将”为主，而这些资管巨头的入场宣告了“正规军”正加速入市。
On January 11, 2024, the US SEC formally approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, including by Belet. Prior to that, investors in the crypto-currency market were dominated by a “swat tour” in which the giants announced that the “regular army” was accelerating their entry into the market.
“正规军”入市后，为市场带来增量资金。Farside Investors数据显示，截至3月12日，比特币现货ETF自推出以来累计净流入101.003亿美元。
After the “regular army” entered the market, it generated incremental capital for the market. Farside Investors data show that, as at 12 March, the spot ETF in Bitcoin had accumulated a net inflows of $10,100.3 million since its launch.
二是“减半”等利好信息的发酵助推市场情绪走向高点。2024年4月23日，比特币将迎来四年一度的“减半”，在这一阶段，“矿工”在计算机上挖矿而获得的比特币数量将会减少，预计在区块奖励将从6.25枚（BTC）降至3.125枚（BTC）。东吴证券张良卫团队认为，减半的规律，客观上限制了比特币供应量增速，具有抗通胀效果，有助于推动币价增值。
II is a high point in the fermentation of good information, such as “50 by half.” On April 23, 2024, , Bitcoin will mark a four-year “50 by half” in which the amount of bitcoins that the “miners” will acquire from computer mining will be reduced, and block incentives are expected to fall from 6.25 (BTC) to 3.125 (BTC).
三是美联储年中降息预期也为比特币价格疯涨“添柴”。近日，美联储主席鲍威尔重申利率将在今年下降。多个海外机构预测美联储降息将至。据CME Group数据，市场交易6月降息25个基点的概率为57.4%。高盛在2月公布的报告显示，美联储将在2024年开始大幅度降息，至少降息四次，首次降息将在6月开始。业内人士认为，一旦美联储进入降息区间，风险资产将迎来利好，而数字货币也将受益于此。
According to CME Group, the probability of 25 basis points being reduced in June by market transactions is 57.4 per cent. According to a report released in February, the Fed will start with a significant reduction in interest rates, at least four times, and the first in June. Industry sources believe that, once the Fed enters the interest-reduction zone, the risk assets will benefit, and the digital currency will benefit from it.
国内投资者“暗道”炒币
Domestic Investors "stalk" coins
在本轮上涨中，亚洲投资者异常活跃。根据TheBlock数据，韩国等亚洲国家的投资者约占比特币交易量的70%。
Asian investors were particularly active in the current round. According to TheBlock data, investors in Asian countries, such as Korea, accounted for about 70 per cent of Bitcoin transactions.
“币圈”如此火热，也引来了不少国内投资者的艳羡。记者注意到，在国内社交平台上不少投资者分享借助境外交易所购买比特币的攻略。其中欧易交易所、火币交易所、币安交易所成为主要购买渠道。
The “currency ring” is so hot that it also envied a lot of domestic investors. Journalists note that a number of investors on domestic social platforms share their strategy of buying bitcoins through offshore exchanges.
记者加入的某交易所官方运营社群分群中，一小时新增的内地用户数量就超百名。
The number of new users of the Mainland in one hour is more than 100 in the official business community of an exchange in which journalists join.
“对散户而言，比特币赚钱方式很简单。链下交易和链上交易。”一名币圈科普博主在社交平台介绍称。链下交易主要在交易所进行，先打钱买USDT，再在平台直接挂买单卖单，“可以像交易股票一样交易加密货币”。
"In the case of a slob, bitcoin is a simple way of earning money. Trading under the chain and trading on the chain." A coin-cooper, Coptic, introduces it on social platforms. Under the chain, transactions take place mainly on the exchange, first on the market, and then on the platform, they pay for USDT, and then on the platform, they pay for the sale of the bill, and it's possible to trade the encrypted currency like a stock exchange.
USDT是一种将加密货币与美元挂钩的虚拟货币，1USDT等于1美元。该博主对记者表示，币圈默认用USDT来交易，因为价格波动小。
USDT is a virtual currency that pegs an encrypted currency to the dollar, and 1 USDT is equal to $1. The blogger says to reporters that the currency circle defaults to be traded with USDT because prices are less volatile.
记者在实测（未购买）过程中也发现，部分境外交易所目前以内地身份仍可注册、登录并进行交易，并不需要修改定位或购买海外ID。此外，在多个社群中活跃着一类“带单老师”，他们宣称可以手把手指导比特币交易流程，并提供投资指导意见，通常需要在指定交易所操作。
Journalists also find in the physical (no purchase) process that some offshore exchanges are currently registered, registered and traded as hinterlands and do not need to change their location or purchase overseas IDs. In addition, there is an active category of “single teachers” in multiple communities, who claim to be able to direct the Bitcoin transaction process hand-in-hand and provide investment guidance, often in a designated exchange.
不过，通过上述渠道交易虚拟货币，在国内一直是被严厉禁止的，上述渠道均为违规“暗道”。2017年相关部门要求国内比特币交易平台全部关停，并退出市场。随后比特币中国、微比特、云币网先后宣布停止所有交易业务。2021年9月，中国人民银行等部委联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币交易炒作风险的通知》（下称“通知”），对虚拟货币和相关业务活动本质属性作出明确规定：虚拟货币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位，虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动，境外虚拟货币交易所通过互联网向我国境内居民提供服务同样属于非法金融活动。
In September 2021, the People's Bank of China and other ministries jointly issued a circular on the further prevention and treatment of the risks involved in virtual currency transactions (hereinafter referred to as “notifications”), which clearly defines the nature of the virtual currency and related operations: the virtual currency does not have the same legal status as the legal currency, the virtual currency-related operations are illegal financial activities, and the offshore virtual currency exchange provides services to residents of the country via the Internet.
警惕风险
Beware of Risk > /strong
由于监管限制，上述比特币交易所此前已迁移至境外。国内投资者资金是如何“进出”交易的？
As a result of regulatory restrictions, the Bitcoin exchange has previously moved abroad.
记者从多位币圈人士处获悉，目前上述交易所大多为“C2C”模式，即个人买家的交易对手实际也是个人，进行点对点交易，平台没有搭建资金池。
Journalists have learned from multiple currency circles that most of these exchanges are currently “C2C” models, in which individual buyers are actually their competitors, do point-to-point transactions, and the platform does not have a pool of funds.
一名币圈资深人士解释，这种交易模式底层逻辑和“闲鱼”（注：淘宝旗下的二手交易平台）很像，双方认可价格，就可以成交，平台起到监控作用。
An expert in the currency circle explained that the underlying logic of this pattern of trading was similar to that of a “noose fish” (note: a second-hand trading platform under a treasure-hunting flag), that both parties could agree on a price, and that the platform acted as a watchdog.
“这种模式下，一般都是境内玩家和境内玩家交易。和境外玩家交易加密货币风险较大，受到境内监管的监控，账户容易出现提现困难或者冻卡等问题。”上述币圈人士解释，除了出于非法洗钱的目的，不然大多会选择“easy模式”的境内交易。
“In this way, it is usually internal players and internal players who deal in encrypted currency with foreign players who are at greater risk, subject to internal control, and whose accounts are vulnerable to problems such as cash withdrawal difficulties or freezing cards.” The same currency circles explain that most of the transactions are conducted within the country for the purpose of illegal money-laundering, except in the case of the “easy model.”
虽然涉及资金进出的换汇风险较小，但目前在国内“炒币”还存在多重风险。
While the risk of exchange involving money entry and exit is relatively small, there are currently multiple risks associated with “fibre money” in the country.
一方面，近年来虚拟货币市场鱼龙混杂，各类“擦边”诈骗层出不穷。（详见《买虚拟币涨512倍、每天自动捡收益，“元宇宙投资”庞氏骗局再起》）“市场内，除了我们熟悉的几款主流虚拟币外，其余大多缺乏底层支撑。”香港中文大学（深圳）高等金融研究院研究员吴海峰对第一财经记者表示，很多虚拟货币本质上就是“割韭菜”的空气币。目前我国没有可以直接投资比特币等电子货币产品的渠道。投资者应该警惕这类投资陷阱。
On the one hand, the virtual money market has been mixed up in recent years, with various types of “fraction-side” frauds. (For more details, see “A 512-fold increase in the purchase of virtual currency, a daily automatic recovery of revenues,” the Ponzi ploy “Investment in the Woncosmos,” is “inside to some of the mainstream virtual currencies that we are familiar with, most of the rest of the market lacks bottom support.”
“即便投资的是比特币等主流虚拟币，其价格波动也较大。”一名币圈资深人士告诉记者，“炒币”并非稳赚不赔，需要承受较高的投资风险。建议普通投资者不要盲目跟风，先明确自身的风险承受能力。
“Even if investments are made in mainstream virtual currencies such as bitcoins, their prices are more volatile.” A senior businessman in the currency circle told journalists that “firing” is not a steady and profitable business, and requires higher investment risk.
另一方面，根据《通知》，参与虚拟货币投资交易活动存在法律风险。任何法人、非法人组织和自然人投资虚拟货币及相关衍生品，违背公序良俗的，相关民事法律行为无效，由此引发的损失由其自行承担；涉嫌破坏金融秩序、危害金融安全的，由相关部门依法查处。
On the other hand, under the circular, there is a legal risk of participating in virtual money investment transactions.
（实习记者邹政对本文亦有贡献）
(Internally journalist Zou Jie also contributed to this paper)
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