华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)
比特币现货ETF通过后，加密市场并没有迎来所谓的“大牛市”，相反，比特币价格持续下挫。
After the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the encryption market did not welcome the so-called “big cow market”, and instead, the Bitcoin price continued to fall.
1月23日凌晨，比特币跌破4万美元，这是自2023年12月以来的首次，尽管随后小幅度回升，但在23日晚间，比特币价格又下跌至3.9万美元以下，再度刷新年内新低。
In the early hours of 23 January, Bitcoin fell by $40,000 for the first time since December 2023, and in the evening of 23 January, despite the subsequent small recovery, the price of Bitcoin fell again to below $39,000, again during the new year.
值得注意的是，自1月11日美国SEC批准11只比特币现货ETF以来，比特币价格多次大跌，在比特币现货ETF上市后的第二天，比特币一度跌破4.2万美元，日内跌幅超7%。
It is worth noting that since the approval by the United States SEC on 11 January of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, the price of Bitcoins has fallen several times, with Bitcoins falling by over 7 per cent the following day after it was placed on the market.
1月24日，比特币短时回升至4万美元上方，但很快又回落。截至发稿，比特币现报39868.1美元，24小时跌幅0.27%。Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时，共有超11万人爆仓，爆仓总金额约3.1亿美元。自比特币现货ETF获批冲高4.9万美元以来，比特币的跌幅已近20%。
On 24 January, Bitcoin recovered short-lived to over $40,000, but quickly fell back. By the time of the release, Bitcoin now reported $39,868.1, with a decline of 0.27 per cent in 24 hours. Coinglass showed that over 110,000 people had exploded in the last 24 hours, with a total of about $310 million.
灰度资金持续外流
1月11日，包括灰度GBTC在内的11只比特币现货ETF被批准上市交易，随后，比特币的价格曾一度飙升至4.9万美元。但该消息的利好作用并没有持续下去，随着大量资金从GBTC流出，市场迎来了明显的抛售压力。数据显示，自1月11日灰度比特币信托转变为ETF以来，已有近30亿美元的资金流出。
On 11 January, 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, including the Greyscale GTC, were approved for listing, and the price of Bitcoin has soared to $49,000. But the benefits of the news have not been sustained, and the market has come under clear sales pressure as large amounts of money flow out of the GCT. The data show that nearly $3 billion have been released since 11 January, when the Greycoin Trust was transformed into the ETF.
中国民协Web3.0专委联合发起人、常务副会长吴高斌向《华夏时报》记者表示，灰度GBTC持续外流，可能是由于市场对比特币未来走势的担忧，导致投资者对GBTC的信心减弱。然而，这并非唯一原因，比特币价格下跌背后可能还受到其他多种因素的影响。
The co-sponsor and Permanent Vice-President of the China National Association's Web 3.0 Commission, Wu Goobin, told a Washington Times journalist that the continuing outflow of Greyscale GBTC could be due to concerns about the future movement of the market in Bitcoin, leading to a weakening of investors' confidence in GBTC. However, this is not the only reason, and that the decline in Bitcoin prices may be influenced by a number of other factors.
“比特币价格下跌的原因往往是多方面的，但在这一特定时期，灰度比特币信托（GBTC）持续发生的资金外流，确实影响了市场情绪和比特币的价格走势。”UWEB校长、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁向《华夏时报》记者表示。
“The reasons for the decline in Bitcoin prices are often manifold, but the continued outflow of funds from the Greytime Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) during this particular period did affect market sentiment and the price movement of Bitcoin.” UWEB Principal and Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association, Janin, stated to the Washington Times journalist.
GBTC作为市场上较早的比特币投资工具之一，在数字资产市场扮演了重要角色，为投资者提供了一个相对安全和合规的比特币投资渠道。公开资料显示，灰度GBTC创立于2013年，在美国证券交易委员会批准其转换为ETF时，已经积累了近300亿美元的资产。
As one of the early bitcoin investment instruments in the market, GBTC played an important role in the digital asset market, providing investors with a relatively secure and compliant channel for bitcoin investment. According to public information, the Greyscale GBTC was created in 2013 and had accumulated nearly $30 billion in assets when the United States Securities and Exchange Commission approved its conversion to ETF.
但随着比特币现货ETF的批准，GBTC面临了前所未有的竞争压力。于佳宁表示，GBTC 1.5%的管理费远高于其他家0.2%—0.9%的费用，这是导致资金外流的一个原因。这些ETF提供了更低的费用、更高的流动性以及更直接的市场接入途径，这使得许多投资者和机构倾向于选择ETF作为投资比特币的工具。
But with Bitcoin’s approval of the spot ETF, the GBTC faces unprecedented competitive pressures. In Janing, the management fee of 1.5% of the GBTC is much higher than that of the rest of the family at 0.2-0.9%, which is one of the reasons for the outflow.
值得注意的是，在被抛售的GBTC中，有价值约10亿美元的GBTC来自于FTX的破产财产，截至目前，FTX的GBTC所有权已归零。而就在FTX抛售GBTC持股一个小时之前，其子公司Alameda Research突然宣布撤销对灰度的诉讼。Alameda Research曾在2023年3月在特拉华州法院提起诉讼，指控灰度“以牺牲股东利益为代价谋取利益”。
It is worth noting that, of the GBTCs sold, about $1 billion worth of GBTC came from the bankruptcy estate of FTX, and so far FTX’s GBTC ownership has been zero. One hour before the sale of the FTX stockholding of GBTC, its subsidiary, Alameda Research, suddenly declared the Greyscale suit dropped. Alameda Research filed a lawsuit in the State Court of Delaware in March 2023, accusing it of “making a profit at the expense of shareholders”.
于佳宁认为，随着市场对ETF预期利好的兑现，GBTC的负溢价已经显著收窄，这促使一部分早期进入的投资者选择在当前时点退出。而FTX抛售的GBTC加剧了市场的不确定性。大量的GBTC抛售加上市场的预期变化，共同导致了GBTC重大抛盘的出现。
As the market delivers its expected benefits to the ETF, GBTC’s negative premium has shrunk significantly, prompting some early-entry investors to opt out at the moment. The FTX sale of GBTC has increased market uncertainty.
但依然有支持者长期看好比特币，Galaxy Digital首席执行官在社交媒体上表示，虽然有人会出售GBTC，但我们认为大多数会被其他比特币ETF给消化掉。这种消化不良将在未来6个月内结束，之后BTC会迎来更高价格。
But there are long-standing supporters of Bitcoin, and the CEO of Galaxy Digital said on social media that while some people would sell GBTC, we believe most of it would be digested by other bitcoin ETFs. This indigestion will end in the next six months, and then BTC will come up with higher prices.
除灰度GBTC持续外流外，另一则消息也让投资者“提心吊胆”。在2014年破产的Mt.Gox被曝将于未来2个月解锁20万枚比特币，用于支付债权人欠款，目前Paypal法币通道已经开始支付。投资者担心，在短期内释放大量的比特币，会促使比特币价格进一步走低。
In addition to the ongoing flow of greyscale GBTC, there is another source of information that allows investors to “close their minds.” Mt. Gox, which went bankrupt in 2014, will be exposed to the risk of unlocking 200,000 bitcoins over the next two months to pay for creditors’ arrears, and the Paypal route has now begun to be paid. Investors fear that releasing large amounts of bitcoins in the short term will push Bitcoin prices further down.
对此，于佳宁表示，突然释放大量比特币的行为，确实可能会对比特币的供需平衡产生显著影响，在市场上形成供给压力。同时，这一事件也可能增加市场的不确定性和恐慌情绪。市场参与者可能会担忧这一大量比特币的释放会导致价格进一步下跌，从而引发更多的抛售行为。这种恐慌性抛售可能会形成恶性循环，导致比特币价格短期内出现剧烈波动。
In response, Janin said that the sudden release of large amounts of bitcoins could indeed have a significant impact on the balance of supply and demand, creating supply pressures in the market. At the same time, the event could increase market uncertainty and panic.
于佳宁进一步分析认为，这一事件的实际影响也有可能会比预期的小，因为Mt.Gox的破产和债务清偿进程已持续多年，市场对这一事件的最终解决已有一定程度的预期。因此这一事件的影响可能已被市场在一定程度上提前消化。另外，尽管理论上20万个比特币的释放可能导致供给激增，但实际上，官方可能会选择分散时间和方式进行抛售，以避免对市场造成过大冲击，从而售得更好的价格用于支付欠款。
According to a further analysis, the actual impact of the event is likely to be smaller than expected, as Mt. Gox’s insolvency and debt settlement process has lasted for many years, and the market has some expectation of a final settlement of the event. Thus, the impact of the event may have been absorbed somewhat earlier in the market.
市场情绪由高涨转为消沉
Market sentiment shifted from high to low
数据显示，在上市交易的首周，11只比特币现货ETF的总资管规模（AUM）约为269.75亿美元。排名前三的是灰度235.37亿美元、贝莱德11.99亿美元、富达10.17亿美元。期间，11只比特币现货ETF的AUM下降了8.41%，而同期的市场价格平均下跌了14.80%。
The data show that the total size of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs (AUM) was approximately $26,975 million during the first week of the listed transactions. The top three rankings were as much as $23,537 million in greyscale, $1,199 million in Belede, and $1,017 million in rich. During the period, the AUM of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs fell by 8.41 per cent, while market prices fell by an average of 14.80 per cent over the same period.
加密数据服务商CryptoQuant此前曾预测，现货ETF获得批准后，比特币预计将回调至32000美元。而随着比特币价格的持续走低，加密市场的气氛也开始紧张起来。
CryptoQuant, the encryption data provider, had previously predicted that, with the approval of the spot ETF, Bitcoin was expected to revert to $32,000. As the price of Bitcoin continued to decline, the atmosphere in the encryption market became tense.
“灰度还是在一直出货，严重影响了市场投资者的信心，后续有可能还会继续回调。”一位资深加密货币投资者向《华夏时报》记者表示。
“The greyscale is still on the move, which seriously affects the confidence of market investors, and it is likely that they will continue to do so.” A senior crypto-currency investor indicated to a Washington Times journalist.
BitMex联合创始人Arthur Hayes表示：“比特币下跌走势可能告诉我们美元流动未来将面临问题，这种下跌趋势可能会持续到1月31日美国财政部发布季度再融资公告。”
According to Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of BitMex, “the downward trend in bitcoin may tell us that the future of dollar flows will be problematic and that this downward trend may continue until the quarterly refinancing announcement issued by the United States Treasury Department on 31 January”.
数字资产衍生品流动性提供商Orbit Markets的首席执行官Caroline Mauron表示：“我们看到所有数字资产都表现疲软，因为新ETF的资金流入，迄今未能抵消投机性交易员对公告前建立的头寸进行获利了结。”
As Caroline Mauron, Chief Executive Officer of Digital Asset Derivatives, Orbit Markets, stated: “We see that all digital assets are weak because the inflow of new ETFs has so far failed to offset speculative traders' profit from pre-advertisement positions.”
值得注意的是，在美国宣布批准比特币现货ETF之后，许多国家表示，不允许比特币现货ETF在本国上市。1月14日，韩国金融当局宣布，尽管美国SEC批准了与比特币现货价格挂钩的交易所交易基金（ETF），但他们不会审查相关的美国比特币现货ETF或推出本地的比特币现货ETF。
It is worth noting that, following the announcement by the United States of its approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, many countries have indicated that the Bitcoin spot ETF is not allowed to be listed in their own countries. On 14 January, the Korean financial authorities announced that, while the United States SEC approved the Exchange Trading Fund (ETF) linked to the Bitcoin spot price, they would not review the relevant United States spot ETF or launch the local Bitcoin spot ETF.
1月18日，新加坡金管局发言人表示，新加坡散户投资者可参与的集体投资计划（CIS）受《证券及期货法令》监管，涵盖ETF。目前，比特币和其他加密货币不属于零售CIS的合格资产。因此，新加坡金融管理局不允许这类金融产品在新加坡上市及面向散户投资者，比特币等加密货币并未列为ETF的合格资产。
On January 18, a spokesperson for the Singapore Monetary Authority stated that Singapore's bulk investors could participate in a collective investment scheme (CIS), which was regulated by the Securities and Futures Ordinance and covered ETFs. At present, Bitcoin and other encrypted currencies are not eligible assets for retail CIS. Therefore, the Singapore Monetary Authority does not allow such financial products to be marketed in Singapore and to be directed to bulk investors, and encrypted currencies such as Bitcoin are not included in ETF's eligible assets.
中国金融智库特邀研究员余丰慧向《华夏时报》记者表示，随着虚拟资产市场规模的扩大以及其在全球金融系统中的角色变化，监管机构正在加强对虚拟资产的监管力度。
China's financial think tank invited researcher Yu Fung Xian of China informed the Washington Times journalists that, with the expansion of the virtual asset market and its changing role in the global financial system, regulators are strengthening their regulation of virtual assets.
“预计未来各国政府将继续加强虚拟资产监管，同时国际合作也将加强，以应对虚拟资产跨国风险和挑战。”中关村物联网产业联盟副秘书长袁帅向《华夏时报》记者表示，在监管趋势上，可能会出现更加严格和规范的监管措施，以确保虚拟资产市场的稳定和保护投资者利益。同时，监管机构也可能会推动更多的国际合作，共同打击虚拟资产犯罪和维护全球金融稳定。
“It is expected that Governments will continue to strengthen virtual asset regulation in the future, and that international cooperation will be strengthened to address the transnational risks and challenges of virtual assets.” The Under-Secretary-General of the Central and Village Networking Industries Alliance, Yuan, has indicated to the Washington Times that regulatory trends may lead to more stringent and regulated regulatory measures to ensure stability in virtual asset markets and protect investors’ interests.
吴高斌也表示，投资虚拟资产的风险不容忽视。虚拟资产价格波动较大，投资风险相对较高。此外，未来监管政策的不确定性也将影响虚拟资产市场。当前，各国对虚拟资产的监管态度不尽相同，投资者需要密切关注政策走向，以降低投资风险。
In addition, uncertainty about future regulatory policies will affect virtual asset markets. Currently, countries have different approaches to virtual asset regulation, and investors need to pay close attention to policy trends in order to reduce investment risk.
责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳
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