华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 冉学东 王永菲 北京报道
Washington Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) journalist Wang Yongfei, Beijing report
比特币的增长速度再次令市场错愕。1月8日3时左右，比特币突破40000美元关口，距离1月5日突破30000美元仅2天的时间，截至当日18:00，比特币突破41000美元。2021年以来的一周，比特币上涨幅度已超过30%，从2020年12月中旬比特币突破2万美元至今不足一个月的时间，上涨幅度达到100%。全球虚拟货币总市值目前已突破1万亿美元大关。近几日美股，港股区块链概念股均呈现大幅上涨。
At about 3:00 a.m. on 8 January, Bitcoin broke the $40,000 mark, just two days before it broke $30,000 on 5 January, and by $41,000 on that date. In the week since 2021, Bitcoin has risen by more than 30%, reaching 100% in less than a month since it broke $20,000 in mid-December 2020.
币安中国区块链研究院首席研究员认为，疫情的到来对全球经济造成了极大的影响，各金融市场指数的持续下挫进一步连锁反应，从而影响到了比特币的价格，但也为投资者带来了较好的时机。从宏观层面来说，疫情持续恶化导致全球央行疯狂“放水”，2020年甚至被称为史无前例的全球“放水”的一年，这也恰好让更多人了解到了比特币稀缺的属性，从而加速比特币的上涨行情。而加密行业也在行情的带动下，如矿业，也在2021年陷入“疯狂”布局的状态。
According to the Chief Researcher, the advent of the epidemic has had a significant impact on the global economy, with financial-market indices stifling further chain reactions, affecting the price of bitcoins, but also giving investors a better chance. At the macro level, the continued deterioration of the epidemic has led to the global central bank’s madness of “water release,” which in 2020 was even known as an unprecedented year of global “water release,” just as it has allowed more people to understand the scarce properties of bitcoins, thereby accelerating the growth of bitcoins.
加密行情强势上涨，后市强劲
Encryption surges, followed by a strong city
比特币快速拉升至40000美元，很多加密分析师认为，或与美国国会大厦遭支持特朗普的示威者闯入并持续发酵有关，美国政坛掀起巨大波澜。美国运输部长赵小兰已发表声明宣布辞职，后续国会或会有“离职潮”出现。在世界疫情仍肆虐以及美国政坛不稳定等因素下，比特币抗风险属性愈发明显。
Bitcoin is rising rapidly to $40,000, and many encryption analysts believe that it is linked to the US Congress building’s invasion and continued fermentation by pro-Trump demonstrators. US Secretary of Transport Zhao Xiaolan has announced his resignation, followed by a “roll-out” of Congress.
区块链数据平台Glassnode发布过去一周的数据观察显示，由于投资者继续囤积和持有比特币，比特币的流动性不断受到挤压，供应量越来越少。在2020年，用于囤积的比特币越来越多，而高流动性供应正在减少，稀缺导致需求相对于供给的增加，推高了价格。另外，值得注意的是，目前新涌入的散户投资者更有可能是持有，而不是实现收益，这表明散户和机构投资者都有更大的增长空间。
The block chain data platform, Glasnode, published data observations over the past week, show that the liquidity of bitcoins continues to be squeezed and less supplied as investors continue to hoard and hold bitcoins. In 2020, more and more bitcoins were being accumulated, while the supply of high liquidity was decreasing, causing demand to increase relative to supply, pushing prices up.
2020年12月31日，Glassnode首席技术官Rafael Schultze-Kraft曾发推文表示，比特币流动性萎缩，投资者囤积，可获得的比特币变得稀缺。今年已经有100万枚比特币变得缺乏流动性，即由实体持有，这些实体花费的比特币少于他们收到的比特币的25%。供购买的比特币已变得更少。
On December 31, 2020, the Chief Technical Officer of Glasnode, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, sent a tweet that bitcoins were shrinking, investors hoarding, and the amount of bitcoins available became scarce. This year, 1 million bitcoins became immobile, i.e. were held by entities that spent less than 25% of the bitcoins they received.
Glassnode数据显示，链上非空地址数量超过3300万个，也就说全球有超过3300万个加密玩家已经参与到比特币投资中来，另外超过1000枚比特币的巨鲸地址数量达到2351.92个，散户与机构对比特币的兴趣都在持续增加。
Glassnode data show that the number of non-empty addresses on the chain is more than 33 million, which means that more than 33 million encrypted players worldwide are already involved in the Bitcoin investment, while more than 1,000 Bitcoins have reached 2351.92, and the interest of both the sender and the agency in the Bitcoin continues to grow.
另外几个数据也十分值得关注。coinmarketcap显示，比特币总市值目前为7214.44亿美元，全球上市企业市值排行榜companiesmarketcap.com显示，排在第8位的Tencent为7296.9亿美元，第九位的Alibaba为6400.9亿美元，比特币总市值在实时全球上市企业市值排行榜中，超越阿里巴巴位列第九。
Several other data are of great interest. Coinmarketcap shows that the total market value of Bitcoin is currently $72,144 million, and the global market value list for listed enterprises shows that Tencent in eighth place is $72,669 million, Alibaba in ninth place is $640.9 billion, and the total market value of Bitcoin is in real-time global market value rankings, surpassing Alibaba in ninth place.
而DeFi锁仓总市值也在随着行情变化，超过220亿美元；而随着机构参与度持续上升，芝加哥商业交易所（CME）成为全球最大的比特币期货交易平台。
The total market value of the DeFi lock-down warehouse is also over $22 billion as events change; and the Chicago Business Exchanges (CME) has become the world's largest Bitcoin futures trading platform as agency participation continues to rise.
币安中国区块链研究院首席研究员向本报记者分析了本轮加密行情推高上涨的整体原因，他认为，本次推高上涨主要是由美国机构投资者的持续买入和增持直接导致比特币价格暴涨。与2017年的大牛市相比，2017年主要是由ICO引发的国内大部分散户介入从而推高币价，而今年的行情则被称之为“机构牛”，这些主要机构绝大多数都来自于美国传统金融机构（养老金、资管、保险、企业、家族基金等）。
The chief researcher at the China Block Chain Research Institute analysed to this newspaper the overall reasons for the increase in encryption in the current round, arguing that the rise was mainly a direct result of the sharp increase in Bitcoin prices as a result of the continued buy-in and build-up of US institutional investors. Compared to the big cattle market in 2017, the bulk of the domestic diaspora, triggered by the ICO, pushed up prices in 2017, while this year’s performance was called “institutional bulls” – the majority of which came from traditional US financial institutions (pensions, management, insurance, businesses, family funds, etc.).
而近期推动加密行情上涨的因素主要有：第一，1月4日，美国货币监理署（OCC）发布公开信表示，美国国家银行和联邦储蓄协会可以使用公有区块链和稳定币进行结算，这标志着将有大量美元进入加密世界；第二，美联储梅斯特表示，美联储正在评估数字货币的可能影响，这表明，主流机构关注比特币的热情有增无减；第三，美国拜登团队对Crypto的相对友善，特别是Facebook强烈站队民主党的利好消息有关。一旦Facebook的计划得以实施，Libra(Diem)真的会巨大的促进数字货币的发展。
First, on 4 January, the United States Monetary Supervisory Authority (OCC) issued an open letter stating that the National Bank of the United States and the Federal Savings Association could settle with a public block chain and a stable currency, which marked the entry of a significant amount of dollars into the world of encryption; secondly, Federal Reserve Maester stated that the Fed was assessing the possible impact of digital currencies, indicating that mainstream agencies were concerned about the growing enthusiasm for Bitcoin; and thirdly, the relative goodwill of the United States' Biden team with Crypto, especially the good news of Facebook’s hardline Democratic Party. Once Facebook’s plan was implemented, Libra (Diem) would indeed be a huge catalyst for digital currency development.
加密行情的强势上涨背后的支撑在哪呢？是否能延续呢？随着传统金融机构入场后持续增持。美国机构可以说是本轮比特币上涨的主要因素，其中大家所熟知的灰度基金扮演了重要的角色。灰度基金对于比特币信托具有独特的设计，其中比特币信托基金只能认购不能赎回，投资者只能选择在美股二级市场上卖出，这相当于将持仓抛压转移到了美股，形成了灰度基金对于比特币“只买不卖”的局面，而这对于比特币的价格无疑是个巨大的支撑。
The Greyscale Fund has a unique design for the Bitcoin Trust, in which the Bitcoin Trust can only be bought out and investors can only choose to sell it in the United States second-tier market, which is tantamount to shifting the stockholding to the United States, creating a situation in which the Greyface Fund “buys nothing” for the Bitcoin, which is undoubtedly a huge support for the Bitcoin price.
另外十分重要的一点是，全球货币量增长明显，全球无优势资产标的。2020年被称为史无前例的全球“放水”的一年，美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行等全球重要经济中心的货币量在今年明显上涨，推涨全球大类资产。传统法币持续不断的增发造成的通货膨胀与比特币通缩的独有属性形成强烈对比，人们对于比特币的稀有性诉求越来越高。
The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Japan, among other major global economic centres, rose sharply this year, boosting global assets. Inflation, caused by the continued growth of traditional French currency, contrasts strongly with the unique properties of bitcoin deflation, and claims for bitcoin’s rareness are increasing.
在购买渠道上，更多样化的加密购买渠道也是重要支撑之一。除了传统交易所渠道进行购买比特币之外，今年全球知名支付工具Paypal也宣布将开放加密货币服务，使得圈外用户能简单便捷地进行比特币投资；同时合规化的持牌交易所也逐渐增多。多样化的投资渠道让人们购买比特币更加容易。
In addition to traditional exchange channels for the purchase of bitcoins, this year’s world-renowned payment tool Paypal announced that it would open up encryption money services, making it easier for outside users to invest in bitcoins; and, gradually, more compliant stock exchanges. Diversified investment channels make it easier for people to buy bitcoins.
加密行情激发行业热情
Encryption excites the industry
比特币价格上涨，作为加密行业上游参与者，2021年的矿业迎来“疯狂”的开局。算力360 CEO张璐向本报记者分析当下矿业的发展情况，张璐表示，现在矿业处于极其缺现货机器的状态；大矿工现在买机器的基本态度是“有就买”，非常疯狂。
The price of bitcoin rose, and the mining industry, as an upstream participant in the encryption industry, began to “crazy” in 2021. Capability 360 CEO Jang reported to the journalist that the mining industry is now in a state of extreme shortage of live machines, and that the basic attitude of large miners now buying machines is “buy-as-you-go” and very crazy.
会不会有一部分矿业资金去了加密货币现货市场？张璐否认了这个情况，她认为目前来看，有更多的场外资金想要进矿圈，但是没有现货这个问题，阻碍了很多人。
Could a portion of mining funds go to the encoded money spot market? Zhang Yik denied the situation, believing that more off-site funds were currently wanted into the ring, but that there was no spot problem, preventing many people from doing so.
她提示到，看BTC月线不是很健康，行情可能会迎来回调，投资者现在进场加密货币现货的风险很高。但是现在入局加密矿业市场是个好机会，不过值得注意的是，产能限制了很多可能性。
She suggested that looking at the BTC moon is not very healthy, that it might come back and forth, and that investors are now at high risk of encrypting cash. But now it is a good opportunity to enter the encrypted mining market, but it is worth noting that capacity limits many possibilities.
在新一年的加密行情拉升带动下，对加密行业的蓬勃发展，投资人也充满信心。对于2021年的加密生态投资方向，分布式资本合伙人黄凌波向本报记者表示，2021年主要方向是公链生态、增量市场和DeFi，公链生态包括Polkadot和Filecoin，增量市场包括资金增量和资产增量，DeFi主要关注金融协议的创新以及组合（包括未来可能出现的跨链组合）。
With the new year’s boom in encryption, investors are confident that the industry will flourish. For 2021, the distribution capital partner, Huang Leibo, stated to reporters that the main directions in 2021 were the public chain ecology, the incremental market and the DeFi, the public chain ecology including Polkadot and Filecoin, which includes capital and asset increment, and the DeFi’s focus on innovation in financial agreements and combinations (including possible future cross-chain combinations).
责任编辑：孟俊莲 主编：冉学东
Responsible Editor: Mon Jun-Lian, Editor-in-Chief: Peng Xiaodong
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