文｜陈之琰
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当你相信一地的机会殆尽，离开牌桌或许并不意味着“当一个逃兵”。
When you believe that the opportunity to leave the table is exhausted, leaving the table may not mean “as a deserter”.
4月中旬见到黄宇，他从香港Web3大会回到上海。他向我们描绘了一个久违的、生机勃勃的场景——那是一场每天从早上9点到晚上11点都有满满安排的行程；行走间时不时会遇到熟人，便坐下来交流一小时；无需担心有空白时间，“上一个人会自然地替你安排好后一个行程”。
When he met Huang Woo in mid-April, he returned to Shanghai from the Web3 conference in Hong Kong. He presented us with a long-standing and dynamic scene — a journey that was fully scheduled every day, from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m. — where he would meet acquaintances from time to time and sit down for an hour; and without fear of a space, “a person would naturally arrange for your next trip”.
“场面非常热烈。”黄宇说，就像中国VC的黄金时代，“或者说，任何蓬勃发展的行业都长这样。”
"The scene was very lively." Huang Woo said, like the golden age of China's VC, "or any booming industry is like this."
一年前，黄宇还是蓝池资本——由蔡崇信、马云等人联合设立的家族办公室——中国投资负责人，而现在，36岁的他成为一家名为NextGen Digital Venture（NDV）投资机构的创始合伙人，专注给予投资人一个合规的方式投资加密货币（Crypto）。
One year ago, Huang Woo was also head of Chinese investment, a family office co-founded by Tsai Chongxin, Maun and others, and is now 36 years old as a founding partner of an investment agency called NextGen Digital Venture (NDV), focusing on giving investors a compliant way to invest in encrypted currency (Crypto).
2023年4月，NDV的一期基金启动。该基金由NDV与加密货币财富管理公司Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd（纳斯达克股票代码：MATH）合作成立。
In April 2023, a NDV fund was launched. The fund was established by NDV in cooperation with the encrypted money wealth management company Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (Nasdak Stock Code: MATH).
「暗涌Waves」了解到，截至目前，该支基金已从全球投资者中募集1亿美元，出资方包括：机构投资人和顶级家族办公室。成立1年多以来，该支基金业绩达到了+170%，累计跑赢比特币超50%、以太坊100%。
The Underground Waves has learned that, to date, the Fund has raised $100 million from global investors, including institutional investors and top family offices. Since its inception, the Fund has achieved +170 per cent performance, with a cumulative run-off of over 50 per cent of Bitcoin and 100 per cent of Etheria.
由于拥有站在出资方角度的经历，让黄宇对NDV有一些特别的设置：比如，针对财富人群对于Crypto合规和安全性的担忧，NDV选择了基于香港“资产管理”的“9号牌”架构，使资产在监管之下。用DBS作为托管银行，每天的交易记录都发给香港证监会备案，同时有专业的第三方基金行政给投资人相应的净值更新。这些设计使投资者在获得Crypto相关的收益同时而无需实际持有虚拟货币。
For example, in response to the wealth population's concerns about Crypto's compliance and safety, the NDV chose a Hong Kong “Asset Management”-based “No. 9” structure to keep assets under supervision. Using DBS as a hosting bank, daily transaction records are sent to the Hong Kong CSRC, with professional third-party funds administering a net value update for investors.
“这是市场上对投资人最友好的架构，投资人在一个合规完善、成熟的托管体系里面获取了这个行业的收益。” 黄宇说。
“This is the most market-friendly structure for investors, who reap the benefits of the industry in a well-compliant and mature hosting system.” Huang Woo says.
尽管以一年之期获得了不俗的成绩单，在黄宇眼中，Crypto还远没构成一个新世界。他期待这个全新的市场能够变大，但同时作为一个资产管理者，他也期待更为理性和长期的投资者，“Crypto就是一种具有潜力也极具风险的另类资产，我们是用最合规的方式在最高风险的行业里面作业”。
Despite getting a good report card in one year's time, Crystal is far from a new world in Huang Woo's eye. He looks forward to this new market growing, but, as an asset manager, he looks forward to more rational and long-term investors, “Crypto is an alternative asset with potential and great risk, and we work in the highest-risk industry in the most compliant manner”.
以下为对话——
Below is the dialogue —
在Crypto的中间地带
「暗涌」：NDV第一年的业绩跑赢了大涨的比特币，这对你来说意味着什么？ "Strange": What does that mean to you? 黄宇：我是北大学历史的，在我看来，个人的力量在大势面前是渺小的。我们所做的，无非是顺应时代潮流，做出选择。回顾改革开放以来，中国经历了多次行业巨浪——从制造业的全球扩张，到城镇化进程中房地产行业的蓬勃发展，再到互联网革命带来的电子商务繁荣。每一次浪潮，都是持续十年以上的重大机遇。 It seems to me that the power of the individual is small in the face of the tide. What we have done is to adapt to the times and make choices. Looking back at the opening of the reform, China has experienced a number of industrial booms — from the global expansion of manufacturing to the boom in the real estate sector in the process of urbanization to the e-commerce boom of the Internet revolution. Each wave has been a major opportunity for more than a decade. 今天，在所谓“逆全球化”的背景下，加密货币（Crypto）代表了一种全新的资产配置方式，而且是未来主流配置中必不可少的一个。它不仅是一种技术革新，在我看来，更是全球配置的最优解。NDV目前取得的任何阶段性成功，都不值得沾沾自喜。因为，这背后的真正功臣是时代的变迁，提供了前所未有的新机遇。 Today, in the context of the so-called “reverse globalization”, Crypto represents a brand-new approach to asset allocation and is essential in the mainstream configuration of the future. is not just a technological innovation, but, in my view, the best solution to global configuration. No stage success of the NNV is worthy of complacency. 「暗涌」：Crypto的确刚刚大涨过，但这可持续吗？ 黄宇：Crypto本身是个10年以上的新机会。我持续在和全球最大的机构投资人（主权基金、养老基金、捐赠基金）沟通，目前的共识会是接下来全球地缘政治还会持续一个不稳定的状态。美国作为储备货币发行权的拥有者，对其权力的滥用导致了流动性的过度泛滥、通胀的上升，也会进一步加剧美元的不确定。现在美元的高利率很难长期持续，所以接下来为了维持美元的优势地位，战争对于美国来讲会是个很自然的选择，所有这些因素都推动投资人寻求区域和类别上的多元化资产配置。这对Crypto是一种长期利好。其实，比特币的发明也是为了应对2008年美国过度印钞的一个产物。 The US, as the holder of the reserve currency issue, has abused its power to cause excessive liquidity, inflation, and further increase the uncertainty of the dollar. Now that the dollar’s high interest rate is difficult to sustain over the long term, the war will be a natural choice for the US, all of which will push investors to seek diversified asset allocation at the regional and class levels. 剩下的问题只是：你愿意花多少比例来买资产安全。 The remaining question is simply: what proportion do you want to buy security of assets? 「暗涌」：如果说，投入你所谓的“大时代”是做对的大决策，那NDV在获取收益上做对的小决策有哪些？ 黄宇：我们其实是用了很多量化指标去决策的，Crypto世界的很多数据都是公开透明的。比如，去年6月15号就监控到全世界前10大的比特币地址单天增持了7500个比特币（今天市值5亿美元），13天以后世界最大的资管公司贝莱德就申请了比特币现货ETF。虽然Crypto匿名，但是大户的筹码移动是可以被监控的，从博弈层面我们高度依赖于数据。虽然NDV是一家投资加密货币股票的基金，但用了区块链的工具加上传统金融市场的方法在做投资。 For example, on 15 June last year, the world’s top 10 bitcoin addresses gained 7,500 bitcoins a single day (with today’s market value of $500 million), and 13 days later Belede, the world’s largest fund manager, applied for Bitcoin spot ETF. Although Crypto is anonymous, the movement of chips in large households can be monitored, and we rely heavily on data at the game level. 「暗涌」：相比那些对于Crypto“不相信”或“all in”的态度，你选择了一个中间地带。 黄宇：在大众的认知中，会觉得Crypto是一个赌博。客观来说，这件领域不被监管监管的部分，的确会滋生非常多的问题和骗局。 Huang Woo: 对于数字货币原住民来说，Crypto是新时代的“淘金热”。初期很容易在市场火热的时候，很多Crypto的从业者都会阶段性在这个行业里面赚非常多的钱，但这不意味着所有人都可以保得住这部分收益。 For the digital-currency indigenous people, Crypto is the “gold-hunting heat” of the new era. In the early days, when markets are hot, many Crypto practitioners will make a lot of money in the industry, but that does not mean that everyone can keep this part of their profits. 因为此前的从业经历，有着比别人有丰富的工具箱。简单来说，家办经验使我更理解LP的需求，也知道宏观大势对于单一资产类别的影响，而VC背景让我更容易用长周期的思维去理解科技带来的变化。Crypto的前景很好，但因为杠杆率非常高，每隔几年会有一轮70%以上的回调，能够阶段性赚到钱并不是最重要的，重要的是安全的离场。 In short, home-based experience has made me more aware of the needs of the LP and of the impact of macro power on a single asset class, and the VC background has made it easier for me to understand the changes brought about by technology with long-cycle thinking. Cripto has good prospects, but because leverage is very high, there will be more than 70% return every few years, and strong's ability to make money in a phased manner is not the most important thing, it's the safe exit. 「暗涌」：为什么选择在2023年离开家办出来创办一支Crypto基金？ 黄宇：从外界看来，家办到Crypto的变化很大，对我来说其实区别不大，因为投资本身就是在追求大的结构性变化：疫情后，全球经济形势的不稳定性增加，这个给了Crypto资产端创新的机会。而在长线的多元化资产配置中，对于出资方，合规的重要性是大于收益的。在花了半年时间把Crypto包括一级、二级、量化、套利等不同类型的亚洲机构全部调研了一遍，发现目前市面上缺乏合规的渠道去配置Crypto资产类别，所以当时决定转向Crypto投资领域。 For me, it is not so different from the changes in Crypto from the outside world, since investment itself is in pursuit of a major structural change: the instability of the global economic situation following the 还有个比较感性的原因。我是个接近30年的NBA球迷，2022年我在上海有段比较绝望的时期，当时我最爱的NBA球星库里独自带队赢得NBA总冠军，他和我一样也是34岁。我目睹了他从纯粹的外线射手，逐渐改变成能在场上激烈对抗的球员。在众人最不看好的一年，他带领球队夺冠。这给了我极大的创业勇气。即使在职业生涯的中后期，库里从未放弃改变。这让我领悟到，改变，永远不嫌晚。 And there's a more emotional reason. I'm a near 30-year-old NBA fan, and I had a rather desperate time in Shanghai in 2022, when my favorite NBA pool was single-handedly leading the NBA championship, and he was 34 years old, just like me. I saw him change from a purely external archer to a player who could fight fiercely at the scene. In one of the worst years, he led the team to the crown. That gave me great entrepreneurial courage. Even in the middle and middle of my career, the Coop never gave up. That made me realize that it was never too late to change. 「暗涌」：成立NDV之前，你有预判到2023年比特币的大涨吗？ 黄宇：2022年是比特币的大跌年，那个时候已经有很多人离开Crypto了。敢于在当时做这个，对于这个特定资产的未来走向是有清晰认知的。 Hwang Woo: 2022 was the year of Bitcoin's collapse, when a lot of people left Crypto. At that time, there was a clear understanding of the future direction of this particular asset. 其实，比特币呈现出明显的周期性，大部分回撤发生在达到历史新高后的1-2年。例如，从2013年的1163美元到2015年的152美元，再到2017年的19666美元，然后再到2018年底的3100美元，再次升至2021年的69000美元。每次达到高点以后，比特币的价格都会回撤80%-85%。这种波动性主要源于比特币的发行和挖矿机制、美元潮汐以及其缺乏监管带来的高杠杆效应。 In fact, Bitcoin shows a clear cyclicality, with most of the withdrawals taking place one to two years after it reached an all-time high. For example, from $1163 in 2013 to $152 in 2015, to $1666 in 2017, and $3,100 by the end of 2018, to $69,000 in 2025. 所以，我是在比特币行至这一轮周期的最底部时出来创业的。如果投资人也能以长期视角来看待比特币，理解并接受其周期性，那么其长期回报还是颇具吸引力的。 So I started out at the bottom of the cycle of Bitcoin. Long-term returns are attractive if investors also look at Bitcoin from a long-term perspective and understand and accept its cyclicality. 「暗涌」：2023年我们在一级市场几乎找不到一支成功募集的新基金。从你的经验来看，Crypto会是未来新基金的唯一解吗？ "Strange": In 2023, we barely found a successful new fund to raise in the first level of the market. From your experience, would Crypto be the only solution to a new fund for the future? 黄宇：我不喜欢用排除法做任何选择。而且市场是丰富和动态的，每个阶段肯定都会出现阶段性的最优解。 I don't like to make any choice with the exclusion method. And the market is rich and dynamic, and every stage is bound to have the best solution. 目前来看，NDV的定位最适合我。由于此前的职业经历，我能很直接的感受到比特币在海外成为一种资产类别，这个对整个Crypto市场都有正面影响。我认为目前市场处在传统金融逐步接受Crypto的阶段。 At the moment, the NNV is the best position for me. Because of my previous career, I can easily sense that bitcoin has become an asset class abroad, which has a positive impact on the entire Crypto market. I think the market is at a stage where traditional finance is gradually accepting Crypto. 「暗涌」：的确，在今年美国SEC和香港先后批准了现货比特币ETF。这对于Crypto投资领域意味着什么？ 黄宇：年初美国比特币ETF审批通过后，价格从4万涨到了7万，通过ETF净流入的美金达到了超过150亿。这意味着，这十家ETF总共管理22万亿美元，意味着他们的客户配置了不到千分之一的资金进入这个市场就将比特币的价格几乎拉高一倍。如果未来配置比例达到1%——而且这并不难——那对这个资产类别意味着什么？未来，Crypto将会到达哪个数量级是很难估算出来的。但有一点是可以肯定的，现在还远远没到顶。 This means that the 10 ETFs managed a total of $22 trillion, meaning that less than a thousand of their clients were allocated to enter the market, almost doubled the price of Bitcoin. If the future allocation was 1% – and that was not difficult – what would that mean for this asset class? In the future, it would be difficult to estimate which grade Crypto would reach. But one thing is certain, and it is still far from the top. 此前参与Crypto投资的人其实很像2006年以前的中国VC从业者。那是一批最先行的人，很多是跨行业来做投资。他们是敏锐的，但与专业金融关系不大。但未来，作为一个大的资产类别，Crypto一定会承接更多的资金，也需要对应的、更专业的人来管理。 Those who had previously been involved in Crypto’s investments were actually like Chinese VC practitioners before 2006. That was the first group of people, many of them across industries, to invest. They were keen, but with little relation to professional finance. 更保守的与更冒险的 「暗涌」：在变局中，出资方对于资产的态度更倾向于保守、求稳，这与以风险著称的Crypto似乎是矛盾的。 黄宇：我不这样理解。我们一直建议投资者将1%-5%的资产配置在比特币中，作为应对全球形势不确定的对冲策略。资产的高波动性应该用仓位的控制来做风控，而不是完全不参与。 We've been suggesting that investors allocate between 1 and 5% of their assets to bitcoin as a hedge strategy to deal with uncertain global conditions. The high volatility of assets should be controlled by a warehouse, not by total non-participation. 今天短线来看比特币是个风险资产，但是长线来说更多是一种避险资产。短期作为一种新资产，因为新进入的人认知不足，所以暴涨暴跌都是很正常的，这个和市值/阶段都有关系。早期的科技股，也是这样的。但是长线来看，比特币作为一种对抗美元印钞的工具是有其长期价值的。 The short line today looks at Bitcoin as a risk asset, but the long line is more of a risk-free asset. As a new asset, the short term is normal, because the newcomers are not aware of it, and this has to do with the market value/stage. 事实上，殖民主义在世界上从未消失过。第一代殖民帝国是大英帝国，他们统治世界的方法是开直营店，派总督去全世界各地收税。第二代殖民帝国是美国，他们的做法更先进，相当于是“POS机+加盟店”的模式去收铸币税，具体的做法就是印钞。 In fact, colonialism has never disappeared in the world. The first generation of colonial empires was the British Empire, which ruled the world by opening direct shops and sending governors to collect taxes all over the world. The second generation of colonial empires was the United States, and their approach was more advanced, amounting to a “pos+allied shop” model to collect currency taxes, specifically by printing currency. 随着美国持续印钞，会开始有更多国家不愿意继续被收割，与美元进行脱钩，进而逐渐形成一个比特币的共识网络。萨尔瓦多等国家和地区已经将比特币作为储备货币，这是一个很好的开始。 As the US keeps printing banknotes, more countries will begin to be reluctant to continue harvesting, delinking the dollar, and gradually form a consensus network of bitcoin. It is a good start that countries and regions like El Salvador have used bitcoin as a reserve currency. 「暗涌」：你如何看待监管风险？ 黄宇：大方向上，国内禁止人民币买Crypto是明确的，但也有一些判例说明法院认可比特币作为一种资产归属受到保护。NDV的角度，还是着力于香港，服务于境外的资产配置。目前，香港已经立法确认了数字资产的合法性，所以具体的运营也是放在香港。 Huang Woo: In the general direction of , it is clear that the domestic prohibition on buying Crypto in renminbi is clear, but there are also cases where the courts have recognized that Bitcoin is protected as an asset. 针对Crypto本身，更重要的还是美国的态度。美国在比特币ETF通过以后已经把它作为一种新的资产来看待了。从政策的角度，目前美国两党候选人无论是拜登还是特朗普都是支持Crypto的，所以大国的监管格局基本已经确定了。长期来看，无论是美国的上市公司，还是小国家的央行，都会有购买比特币的激励，未来流入这个资产类别的钱不会低于万亿美元。 From a policy point of view, US bipartisan candidates, be they Biden or Trump, are now supporting Crypto, so the regulatory patterns of the big countries are largely defined. In the long run, both US listed companies and small-country central banks will have incentives to buy bitcoins, and future inflows into this asset class will be no less than trillion dollars. 「暗涌」：虽然目前看来NDV的业绩不错，但在过去一年里，回撤过多少次？ 黄宇：Crypto回撤20%都是非常正常的。在过去的13个月里面，有两次幅度比较大的回撤，一次是8%，另一次是15%，但即便算进去这两次回撤，整体的浮盈在170%左右，风险收益比是相对合适的。 Hwang Woo: 20% of Crypto retreats are perfectly normal. In the last 13 months, there have been two larger withdrawals, one 8% and the other 15%, but even if these two retreats are counted, the overall gain is about 170%, and the risk return ratio is relatively appropriate. 从整体风控的角度，基金设置了锁定期，主要原因还是这个资产类别和别的不一样，波动性和周期性都很明显。锁定期的设置其实也是希望LP能够保持一个相对长期的态度去看待这个资产。过去的11年里面，比特币持续呈现牛长熊短的特点，但是即便是在牛市当中，单月回撤10-20%也是很正常的。但是，任何参与者在一个新品类里面看到20%的下跌都是会恐慌的。但从我们的角度看，如果确定一个大趋势正在发生，其实不应该离场。我们提倡LP做配置，将资产1-5%的比例放进Crypto相关的产品。 From the point of view of overall wind control, the Fund has set locks for a period of time, mainly because this asset class is not the same as any other, and the volatility and cyclicality are obvious. The locks are also designed to keep the LP from looking at the asset for a relatively long time. For the past 11 years, Bitcoin has continued to exhibit short-lived characteristics, but even in the cattle market, it is normal to withdraw 10-20% per month per month. But any participant sees a 20% drop in a new class. But, from our point of view, 「暗涌」：我们曾经研究过部分中国市场中的家族办公室，其中一个从业者的普遍难点是获取信任。设置锁定期如何解决信任的问题？ 黄宇：所有的资管行业核心都在赚趋势的钱，只是在趋势之下，怎么样用一个合理的激励机制让你和出资人的利益能够一致，这个是很重要的。 一方面，NDV的合伙人第一天就放了600万美元在里面，和所有出资人的利益一致性是非常强的。另一方面，除了一笔支付的认购费用于基金日常开销外，NDV目前没有收取管理费。这意味着，作为管理人，只有在退出时才会收取收益分成。因为我们在初创期不想给自己太大的无风险收益。 On the one hand, the NDV partners put $6 million in it on the first day, which is very consistent with the interests of all donors. On the other hand, the NDV does not currently charge a management fee, apart from paying a lump sum of subscriptions to the Fund’s day-to-day expenses. 「暗涌」：在顶级富豪家族办公室工作的经历对于你来说的价值是什么？ 黄宇：除了拥有了比普通投资人更大的金融工具箱外，我会去看全球的资金流，大的资本的流动。我很喜欢从历史趋势的角度去看问题，相较于以前，今天世界的主旋律更偏对抗，所以资金流会非常不稳定，在不确定的时候，像比特币这种相对中立的第三方无主资产很容易受到偏好。 In addition to having a larger financial toolbox than ordinary investors, I look at global capital flows, large capital flows. I like to look at problems from the point of view of historical trends. Today's world's main melody is more confrontational than before, so financial flows are highly volatile and, in times of uncertainty, relatively neutral third-party orphan assets like Bitcoin are easily favoured. 「暗涌」：你希望人们对于Crypto的理解是什么样的？ 黄宇：它还是一种新的另类资产，以后在全球的资产配置中，Crypto从国别上是个没有国籍的资产，从收益上是个是可以部分替代美元VC的品类。因为一个合格的资产组合总是要有高风险、高回报的配置。 Wong: is also a new alternative asset, and later in the global asset allocation, Crypto is a non-national asset from country to country, and in return is a category that can partially replace the US dollar VC. because a qualified portfolio of assets always has high-risk, high-return configurations. 「暗涌」：Crypto是未来高风险、高回报的唯一选择吗？ 黄宇：AI当然也是。但AI用资产在一二级市场中，能直接参与进去的机会还是太少了。从长线来看，我相信AI在未来的某个时间点也会和Crypto有结合。AI本身是先进的生产力，但是任何国家或者个人，如果能控制AI都会是个很危险的事情，也会有损AI的推广。Crypto是一种无人可以控制的生产关系，与AI能够有机结合。 But there are few opportunities for AI to be directly involved in a second-tier market with assets. From a long line, I believe that AI will be associated with Crypto at some point in the future. AI itself is an advanced productivity, but any country or individual, if it controls AI, will be a dangerous thing, and it will undermine AI’s promotion. Crypto is an uncontrollable productive relationship, and it can be organically associated with AI.
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