过去一年，比特币的信徒们用尽浑身解数，让全世界都注意到了他们的存在。与此同时，比特币的创富传奇不胫而走，激进的市场行情让部分信徒产生了虚妄的幻想，他们认为，对传统秩序的挑战已经取得了阶段性的成果，非主权货币的灿烂未来正在加速到来。
In the past year, Bitcoin’s followers have done everything they can to make the world aware of their existence. At the same time, Bitcoin’s legends of wealth have gone unheeded, and radical market behavior has created false illusions among some believers that the challenge to the traditional order has reached a stage-by-stage outcome, and that the bright future of non-sovereign currencies is accelerating.
但博弈的权柄从未旁落，中国央行仅仅靠一个非公开的座谈会，就将比特币逼到了拳台死角。
But the power of the game was never lost, and the Central Bank of China pushed Bitcoin to the corner of the boxing boxer by a mere closed discussion.
继禁止金融机构参与比特币的交易后，央行针对比特币再次出手。一周前，央行支付司召集十余家支付机构，要求支付机构不得向比特币平台提供服务，并要求与会的支付机构一一表态。
Following the ban on financial institutions from trading in bitcoin, the central bank re-engaged against bitcoin. A week ago, the Central Bank Payments Division called on more than 10 payment agencies to demand that payment agencies not provide services to the Bitcoin platform and that the participating payers take a stand.
这一釜底抽薪的做法，直接断绝了比特币市场的“活水”。“所有商务伙伴全都切断了与我们的合作。”一度是全球最大比特币交易平台的比特币中国几乎在座谈会召开的同日，就感受到问题的严重性。比特币中国的负责人之一凌亢对腾讯财经表示，因支付渠道的瞬间瓦解，比特币中国目前暂停充值功能。
This bruising has directly cut off the “living water” of the Bitcoin market. “All business partners have cut off their cooperation with us.” Bitcoin, the world’s largest trading platform for bitcoin, felt the seriousness of the problem on almost the same day as the symposium.
比特币中国希望增加交易成本，延缓这一局面给比特币市场带来的影响。但是这未能阻止比特币价格的飞速下跌。短短两天，比特币的交易价格跌去40%以上。
Bitcoin China wants to increase transaction costs and slow down the impact of this situation on the Bitcoin market. But this has not prevented Bitcoin prices from falling fast.
凌亢对央行的态度感到困惑，他希望央行能有正式的文件，来明确监管意图，而他现在能做的仅是等待。
Ling was confused about the central bank's attitude, and he hoped that the central bank would have a formal document identifying its regulatory intentions, and that all he could do was wait.
“我们正在积极与央行沟通，我们绝不会去挑战政府，也愿意做政府的智囊。”火币网的联合创始人杜均采取了更加主动的方式，他告诉腾讯财经，火币网已通过跟央行关系密切的学术、教育机构，与央行相关部门取得联系，他甚至提交了比特币平台监管草案，帮助央行出谋划策，以期央行能指定一个合法的支付接口。
“We are actively communicating with the central bank, and we will never challenge the government, nor will we be a think tank.” The co-founder of the gunnet network, Dou, has taken a more proactive approach, telling him that the gunnet has reached out to the relevant departments of the central bank through academic and educational institutions close to the central bank, and he has even submitted a bill to regulate the Bitcoin platform, helping the central bank to come up with ideas that would enable the central bank to designate a legal payment interface.
这样的局面恰恰是央行最希望看到的。“进”，可出台更严厉的监管措施，给予比特币致命一击；“退”，可静观其变，在控制系统性风险的基础上，掌握比特币世界的话语权。
This situation is exactly what central banks would like to see most. “Go ahead,” with stricter regulatory measures, giving Bitcoin a fatal blow; and “retrench”, with quiet changes, and with a voice in the Bitcoin world based on control of systemic risks.
而站在悬崖边上的比特币别无选择， 妥协已成为唯一的生机。
And bitcoin on the edge of the cliff had no choice, compromise was the only chance of survival.
央行的真实目的
The real purpose of the central bank is
在此之前，比特币的玩家比想象中要乐观。12月5日，央行等五部委曾联合发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》（下称《通知》），明确比特币不具有与货币等同的法律地位，不能且不应作为货币在市场上流通使用，普通民众在自担风险的前提下拥有参与的自由，各金融机构和支付机构不得以比特币为产品或服务定价。
Before that, Bitcoin’s players were more optimistic than they thought. On December 5, the Central Bank and five other ministries issued a joint Notice on Protection against Bitcoin Risk (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which made it clear that Bitcoin did not have the same legal status as a currency, could not and should not be used as a currency in the market, that ordinary people had the freedom to participate at their own risk, and that financial institutions and payment agencies should not use Bitcoin as a price for their products or services.
被外界看来是比特币灭顶之灾的监管行为，在比特币世界却被解读为利好。比特币资深玩家宋欢平认为，央行虽然不承认比特币是货币，但变相承认了比特币的交易不违法，这对所有参与者来说，已经足够了。在腾讯财经接触的多位比特币市场交易者看来，央行并非想把比特币赶尽杀绝。
In the world of Bitcoin, it has been interpreted as profitable. In the view of the senior Bitcoin player, Song Qingping, the central bank, while not recognizing Bitcoin as a currency, admitted that Bitcoin’s transactions were not illegal, which was enough for all participants.
凌亢认为央行此前的《通知》表明，1、明确了自担风险的交易合法性。2、明确了在工信部备案的网络平台的合法性3、明确了平台受央行反洗钱监管。因此比特币中国认为，政府不太可能短期内出台一个与《通知》原则相悖的书面文件。
In his view, the Bank’s previous Circular showed that the legitimacy of self-inflicted transactions was clear.2 The legitimacy of the web platform that was registered with the Ministry of Industry and Communications3 was clarified, and that the platform was subject to anti-money-laundering control by the Central Bank.
但是到了12月16日，央行召集支付机构座谈，以窗口指导的方式，关闭了比特币平台的支付接口。这回比特币交易的参与者有些看不懂了。凌亢至今都不愿意相信，央行会对比特币下如此重手。他对腾讯财经称，他没有在央行网站看到座谈会的相关信息，因此他不愿相信关闭支付渠道是央行的真实态度，他希望央行能正式发文，予以澄清。
But on December 16, the central bank convened a meeting of the paying agencies to shut down the payment interface on the Bitcoin platform in a window-directed manner. Participants in the Bitcoin transaction were somewhat confused.
一位参与了央行座谈的机构人士对腾讯财经讲述了他理解的央行意图。“央行开会的目的是统一认识、维护货币体系和金融稳定、保护消费者权益。”他表示，当天央行要求参会的支付机构一一表态，这令“座谈会”的气氛开始变得诡异。
A central banker who took part in the central bank talks described his understanding of the central bank’s intentions with regard to the book. “The purpose of the central bank meeting was to unify understanding, preserve the monetary system and financial stability, and protect consumers’ rights.” He said that that day the central bank’s demand for a statement from the paying agencies participating in the meeting had made the atmosphere of the “seminars” strange.
该人士指出，目前央行担心比特币洗钱风险大，不允许将比特币引入到金融交易中，即金融机构和支付机构不能参与和提供服务，央行随时会依据 《通知》进行风险提示。显然，此前懵懂的市场参与者，这一次真正明确了央行的态度和形势的严峻。
According to this source, the central bank is currently concerned about the risk of money-laundering in bitcoin, it is not allowed to introduce bitcoin into financial transactions, i.e. financial institutions and payment agencies are unable to participate in and provide services, and the central bank will always use the circular as a basis for risk alerts. Clearly, this time, the market participants, who understood it, truly clarified the central bank’s attitude and the seriousness of the situation.
这一次央行对支付机构的“风险提示”颇具威力，比特币的价格连续大跌，12月18日，比特币的价格一度跌至2400元人民币，在12月16日，比特币的价格为4000元人民币以上。直至12月22日，比特币的价格仍徘徊在3500元上下，再未回到前期高点。
This time, the central bank's “risk alert” to the paying agency was powerful, with the price of Bitcoin falling continuously, and on December 18, the price of Bitcoin fell to 2400 yuan, and on December 16, the price of Bitcoin was more than 4,000 yuan. Until December 22, the price of Bitcoin remained at 3,500 yuan and did not return to its previous height.
信仰的重构与崩塌
比特币的信徒一直笃信，将金钱和信仰投入到一个数学框架中，再不会被政治和人类弱点所干扰。这就好比没有人能击败逻辑，因为要击败逻辑，你还得使用逻辑。
Bitcoin’s followers have always believed in putting money and faith into a mathematical framework that can no longer be disturbed by politics and human weakness. That's like no one can defeat logic, because to defeat logic, you have to use logic.
知名比特币投资者李钧在他与友人所著的《比特币》一书中提出，“把比特币仅仅看作一种货币，而不是一种革命性的思想，或者一整套交易生态和架构，那显然是小看比特币了。”
The famous Bitcoin investor, Li Jin, in his book Bitcoin, with friends, argued that “it would be a currency, not a revolutionary idea, or a whole set of trade ecology and architecture, which would obviously be a little bitcoin”.
他们坚信，数学比人更可靠，比特币未来会被主流社会所接受，成为流通货币，甚至是国际储备货币。但每个人都明白，这一过程，意味着将长期与传统的货币秩序进行博弈。
They are convinced that mathematics is more reliable than human beings, and that bitcoin will be accepted by the mainstream society in the future as a currency in circulation, or even an international reserve currency. But everyone knows that this process means a long-term game with the traditional monetary order.
遗憾的是，虽然比特币的信徒越来越多，且市场价格急速攀升，但仍无法在学界的争论中获得明显的优胜，无法证明比特币存在真实的价值，并必将成为未来所选。
Unfortunately, despite the growing number of followers of Bitcoin and the rapid rise in market prices, it has not been possible to achieve a clear success in the academic debate, to prove that bitcoin exists in real terms and will certainly be the choice for the future.
2013年5月，在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的年度股东大会上，有投资者向巴菲特、比尔盖茨、芒格三人问起对比特币的看法，比尔盖茨评价比特币为技术杰作；芒格对比特币嗤之以鼻，称其为老鼠药；巴菲特的答案模棱两可：“我不了解比特币，但我知道他们两人只有一个是对的。”
In May 2013, at the annual shareholders'meeting of Birkhshiel Hassaway, investors asked Biffit, Bill Gates and Manger about Bitcoin, who was evaluated by Bill Gates as a technical masterpiece; Mangbitcon, whose nose was scorned and called it a rat drug; and Buffett, whose answer was ambiguous: “I don't know bitcoin, but I know that there is only one right of them.”
更让人担忧的是，在传统秩序面前，比特币甚至没有博弈的筹码。央行这一次仅仅是动了动小手指头，但足以让比特币世界吓出一身冷汗。
What is even more worrying is that, in the face of traditional order, Bitcoin does not even have the leverage to play. The central bank has only moved its little finger this time, but it is enough to scare the world of Bitcoin into a cold sweat.
资深玩家宋欢平承认，比特币的市场实际上是一个政策市。虽然他仍认为，在未来比特币的非主权货币身份会令它大放异彩，但是在现下，比特币仍有排解不开的桎梏，这种桎梏横亘恰恰在了比特币化身成蝶的必经之路上。
Senior player Song Qingping admits that Bitcoin’s market is actually a policy market. Although he still believes that the future status of Bitcoin as a non-sovereign currency will make it a big deal, now Bitcoin still has unbreakable shackles, which lie on the path to bitcoin becoming a butterfly.
比特币中国如今非常沮丧，在12月16日之前，他们还是世界上最大的比特币交易平台，但是在一夜之间，霸主宝座迅速易主。由于支付接口消失，交易平台只能停止充值。比特币中国宣布结束优惠期，对每笔交易开始征收0.3%的交易手续费。凌亢称，这是为了抑制市场炒作。
Bitcoin China is now very frustrated. Before December 16, they were the world’s largest bitcoin trading platform, but one night, the throne quickly took over. With the loss of the payment interface, the trading platform could only stop charging.
目前比特币中国仍提供提现功能，但是没有流入资金，平台能维持到几时，谁也无法估计。
At present, Bitcoin China continues to provide liquidity, but without inflow of funds, the platform can be maintained until such time as no one can estimate it.
由于，比特币中国征收交易手续费，直接将交易者推到了承诺永远免收手续费的火币网，而火币网可能已经成为中国最大的比特币交易平台。
Because of the transaction fees levied by Bitcoin, traders were pushed directly to a network of coins that promised a permanent exemption from the fees, which could become the largest trading platform for bitcoins in China.
这个消息完全没能给火币网带来欣喜，火币网的情况也没比比特币中国好到哪去。如今火币网比特币的充值、提现回到了传统的汇款方式。这一方式耗费众多人力，并存在交易时滞，但这是火币网能想到的唯一方式。
The news does not at all cheer up the gunnet, nor is it better than the bitcoin China. Today, the coinnet’s bitcoins are refilled, and their withdrawals return to the traditional way of sending money.
内忧外患之下，部分信徒的信仰出现动摇。资深比特币玩家端宏斌，人称老端，曾是比特币的忠实拥趸，但如今老端是比特币世界的“敌人”。老端最初是比特币的中国拓荒者，现在他开始质疑比特币的价值和未来。他在最近的一篇文章中，把比特币比喻成“秀才们的滑稽造反”。老端并非唯一的倒戈者，信仰的重构和崩塌，每一天都在比特币世界发生，其内部的不稳定，也正是比特币容易被外力所左右的原因，因为终极问题：比特币到底价值几许？没人可以回答。
In a recent article, he compares bitcoin to “climbing of talent.” The old man is not the only one, the re-construct and collapse of faith, which occurs every day in the world of bitcoin, and its internal instability, which is why bitcoin is easily influenced by foreign forces, because the ultimate question is: how much is bitcoin? No one can answer.
比特币的自我救赎
Bitcoin's Self-Repair
未来的事已经来不及细想，如今比特币的参与者，最想解决的是眼前的问题。
It is too late to think about the future, and now the most important thing for Bitcoin's participants is the problem at hand.
凌亢选择消息等待，期望央行能深入了解比特币，给比特币一个发展空间。而杜均显然更加主动，他选择主动与央行沟通。
Ling chose to wait for news, hoping that the central bank would know more about Bitcoin and give Bitcoin a space for development. And Doudu was obviously more proactive, and he chose to communicate with the central bank.
“不仅仅是支付司，央行监管比特币，会通过一系列的部门联合监管，我们正在通过各种途径与央行沟通。”杜均指出，他做企业，目的不是挑战政府，他希望获得央行的认可，成为央行管理这一行业的智囊。
“Not only the Payments Division, central bank supervision of Bitcoin, but a series of joint sector supervisions, we are communicating with the central bank through various channels.” Dudhu points out that his business is not about challenging the government, and that he wants to be endorsed by the central bank as a think tank for the central bank to manage the industry.
他指出，央行召集的支付机构并不全，仍有一些小的支付机构未受到窗口指导。但是火币网，不会去和没被警告的支付机构合作，因为火币网不想忤逆央行的意图，不想挑战央行权威，即便目前的汇款方式有诸多不便，但他们仍尊重央行目前的做法。他认为，央行目前的做法，是出于反洗钱和维护金融系统安全的考虑，自己与央行的立场一致。
He pointed out that central banks did not convene a full number of payment agencies, and that there were still small payment agencies that were not guided by the window. But the gunnets did not go to work with uninvited payment agencies, because they did not want to counter the central bank’s intentions or challenge its authority, and they respected the central bank’s current practice, even though the current way of sending remittances was cumbersome.
如今火币网已向央行提交了部分监管草案，杜均希望与央行能达成共识，获得统一的合法支付接口。
Now that the network has submitted a partial regulatory draft to the central bank, Douwen hopes to reach a consensus with the central bank to obtain a uniform legal payment interface.
实际上杜均并非孤军奋战，资深比特币投资人李钧也在做着同样的努力。他会定期向央行提交行业数据，帮助央行了解行业的现状。
In fact, Dhu is not alone, and Senior Bitcoin investor Li Yong is doing the same. He will regularly submit industry data to the central bank to help it understand the industry’s current situation.
除央行监管，杜均认为，行业自律也是非常重要的一方面。本来在11月下旬，火币网与比特币中国已经结成同盟，以期形成行业自律准则，统一定价及服务标准，但因其他事而推迟发布。
With the exception of central bank supervision, Dou argues that industry self-regulation is also a very important aspect. In late November, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland signed an alliance between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
杜均对腾讯财经表示，这一计划没有改变，很可能在12月底宣布同盟成立，行业协会自律可以成为官方监管的重要补充。
Both of them indicated that the scheme had not changed and that it was likely that the alliance would be announced by the end of December, and that self-regulation by industry associations could be an important complement to official regulation.
但是火上浇油的是，在央行关闭比特币平台的支付渠道后，官方网站出现了无法访问的情况。外界一度认为是比特币投资者的报复行为。不过央行对腾讯财经表示，尚不能确定网站出现问题的原因。
But this is compounded by the fact that official websites became inaccessible following the central bank’s closure of the Bitcoin platform’s payment channels. For some time, it was perceived as retaliatory action by Bitcoin investors.
这一消息，很可能葬送杜均与李钧等人的努力。不过杜钧表示，以他多年的IT经验判断，国内黑客无人敢攻击央行网站，央行拥有足够的技术手段，确定黑客身份并不难，既然央行没有归罪于比特币投资者，那么几乎可以确定此事与国内黑客无关。他认为，很可能是比特币投资者去央行查找是否存在关闭支付渠道的明文，瞬时访问量过大造成了网站崩溃。
However, Doo-duk is likely to bury the efforts of Li Jin and others. According to his many years of IT experience, no hackers in the country dare to attack the central bank’s website, the central bank has enough technical means to identify hackers, and since the central bank is not blamed on Bitcoin investors, it is almost certain that the matter has nothing to do with domestic hackers.
这一插曲并没有招致央行进一步的行动，而比特币世界的妥协，是央行期望看到的结果。在博弈的第一回合，中国央行毫无悬念地胜出。但这次出手，使得中国的比特币市场命悬一线，而境外主权国家对比特币的暧昧态度，又令中国央行不敢掉以轻心。博弈的第二回合已经开始，央行先手，央行接下的一步棋，将决定比特币在中国未来的命运。（腾讯财经 闫铮 发自北京）
This episode did not trigger further action by the central bank, which was expected to see as a result of the Bitcoin compromise. In the first round of the game, the central bank of China won without hesitation.
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