一个月狂飙45%!爆量、减半、爆仓……比特币还能疯多久?

资讯 2024-06-25 阅读:202 评论:0
比特币热潮持续升温,再次逼近历史高点,一个月涨幅超过45%。 Bitcoin heat continues to rise, again approaching historical heights, with an increase of...
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比特币热潮持续升温,再次逼近历史高点,一个月涨幅超过45%。

Bitcoin heat continues to rise, again approaching historical heights, with an increase of more than 45 per cent per month.

虽然距离比特币减半已不足50天,但买入需求已经远远超过了每日供应量。比特币现货ETF自1月11日上市成立以来,资金流入量已经达到74亿美元,资金在蜂拥而入,交易量连续创下新高,2月28日更是创下单日成交近77亿美元的纪录。

Although less than 50 days have passed since the halving of Bitcoin, the demand for purchases has far exceeded the daily supply. Since its launch on 11 January, the Bitcoin spot ETF has reached $7.4 billion in inflows, has been pouring in, and transactions have continued to rise, and on 28 February it was a record close to $7.7 billion a day.

更多资金流入加密货币领域的同时,更大风险事件也在酝酿发生。比特币波动巨大,且不同国家和地区对数字资产的监管政策差异较大,投资者切不可盲目入市。仅在29日,比特币突破高点的盘中,涨幅从13%收窄至6%的过程中,比特币市场有近18万人被爆仓。

more funds flow into the crypto-currency sector, while more risky events are taking place. Bitcoin is highly volatile and regulatory policies for digital assets vary widely across countries and regions. Investors must not enter the market blindly. Only on 29 days, Bitcoin broke through a high-point plate, with nearly 180,000 people on the Bitcoin market sunk during a contraction from 13% to 6%.

一个月大涨45%

A 45% increase in a month.

今年以来,比特币进入了加速上涨阶段,交易热潮持续升温。在短短一个月内,比特币涨幅45.69%,价格超过60000美元,创下2021年11月以来新高。若以人民币汇率计算,比特币一度超过450000元一枚。

Since this year, Bitcoin has entered an accelerated period of upswing, and the tide of trade has continued to rise. Within a short month, bitcoin has increased by 45.69%, at a price of more than $60,000, reaching a new high since November 2021. At one time, bitcoin was more than $450,000.

比特币4月份将迎来新一轮的“减半”,成为推动比特币加速上涨的重要诱因。“减半”是挖矿奖励减半,大约每四年发生一次,具体时间取决于比特币网络的区块生成速度。这将减少比特币的供应量,预计在2024年4月23日,届时区块奖励将从6.25枚(BTC)降至3.125 枚(BTC)。

This will reduce the supply of bitcoin, which is expected to fall from 6.25 (BTC) to 3.125 (BTC) on April 23, 2024.

这种情况在历史上一直对比特币价格有利,在供给减少的预期下,在4月份的“减半”事件之前,交易者纷纷涌入比特币市场,以期在供应减少价格上涨时获利。但是,今年1月份比特币ETF发行,才是触发行情爆发的关键因素。此前,2024年1月11日,美国证监会正式批准了包括贝莱德等机构在内的11只比特币现货ETF申请。

However, the release of the Bitcoin ETF in January this year was the key trigger for the outbreak. Prior to that, on 11 January 2024, the US CSR formally approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, including by Belet.

这一决定,将允许普通投资者像买卖股票和共同基金一样方便地买卖比特币。在此之前,加密货币市场上的投资人以“散兵游将”为主,而这些资管巨头的入场宣告了“正规军”正加速入市,带来更多增量资金。新举措降低了比特币的购买门槛,也吸引更多机构和散户投资者进入市场。此外,批准上市还提升了加密资产的合法性,从而助推了比特币价格逐渐走高。

This decision would allow ordinary investors to buy and sell bitcoins as easily as they buy shares and mutual funds. Prior to that, investors in the crypto-currency market had predominantly been “swap-goers,” and the entry of these giants had announced that the “regular army” was speeding up the market, bringing in more incremental capital.

数据显示,2月份流入比特币ETF的资金达到了59亿美元。自1月11日上市成立以来,比特币ETF的资金流入量为74亿美元,而同期黄金ETF的流出量为29亿美元。市场猜测有部分市场投资者选择抛售黄金ETF,购入比特币ETF。

According to the data, in February, the amount of money flowing into the Bitcoin ETF reached $5.9 billion. Since its inception on 11 January, the amount of money flowing from the Bitcoin ETF was $7.4 billion, compared with $2.9 billion from the gold ETF during the same period.

单日交易量近77亿美元

One-day transactions amounting to almost $7.7 billion.

这种供给大幅减少下的流动性激增,让市场预期空前亢奋。

The surge in liquidity under this sharp decline in supply has created an unprecedented surge in market expectations.

根据2月29日数据显示,比特币现货ETF创下单日交易量76.9亿美元的新纪录,其中贝莱德以32亿美元的交易量位居榜首。这一数字轻松超越了之前46.6亿美元的单日交易量纪录,那是比特币现货ETF上市首日所创下的。

According to data from February 29, Bitcoin spot ETF created a new record of $7.69 billion in single-day transactions, with Belede at the top of the list with $3.2 billion. That figure easily exceeded the previous record of $4.66 billion in single-day transactions, which was created on the first day of Bitcoin spot ETF listing.

2月26日,全球持有比特币最多的上市公司Microstrategy大举加购3000枚比特币。该公司创始人发文表示,在2月15日至2月25日期间,其以约1.554亿美元的价格购买了约3000枚比特币,每枚比特币的均价约为51813美元。

On 26 February, Microstrategy, the world’s largest listed company with bitcoin, bought 3,000 bitcoins by large. The founder of the company wrote that it had purchased about 3,000 bitcoins at an average price of approximately $155.5 million between 15 February and 25 February, with an average price of approximately $51,813 per bitcoin.

目前,比特币现货ETF的买入需求远远超过了每日供应量,导致供需关系呈现脱钩状态。2月28日,比特币现货ETF购买数量达11211枚,而每天900个比特币供应量已达到矿工的最大产能。10倍之差表明,比特币现货ETF正吸引更多资金流入加密货币领域。

Currently, the demand for Bitcoin spot ETF purchases far exceeds the daily supply, leading to a decoupling of the supply-demand relationship. On February 28, the number of Bitcoin spot ETF purchases reached 11211, while 900 bitcoins a day reached the maximum capacity of miners.

比特币作为数字资产市场的“领头羊”,其价格波动往往对整个数字资产市场产生显著影响。比特币现货ETF交易量大幅攀升的同时,以太坊、狗狗币等数字资产的交易量也都正在迈向新的历史台阶。

Bitcoin, as the “lead sheep” of the digital asset market, tends to have a significant impact on the entire digital asset market. At the same time that Bitcoin’s spot ETF trade volume has risen dramatically, the volume of digital assets such as Taiwan and Dogcoin is moving to a new historical level.

比特币狂潮需要“冷水”和“大心脏”

Bitcoincircumcide needs cold water and big heart.

随着越来越多的加密资产走入散户交易端口,这个市场虽然逐渐走向成熟,但是风险仍然要远高于传统金融市场。

As an increasing number of encrypted assets move into bulk trading ports, the market, while gradually maturing, remains far more risky than traditional financial markets.

自比特币问世以来,价格一路大起大落,暴涨暴跌是常态,市场面临的多重风险不容忽视。此前,比特币历史最高点发生在2021年11月10日,当时逼近6.9万美元。之后,受美联储开启激进加息周期、部分行业交易平台倒闭及监管趋严等影响,价格一路下滑。

Since the advent of Bitcoin, prices have fallen all the way, booms and busts are the norm, and the multiple risks facing the market cannot be ignored. Previously, Bitcoin’s highest point in history occurred on 10 November 2021, when it was close to $690 million.

2022年11月跌破1.6万美元,创出这一轮下跌的最低点。此后,比特币价格有所反弹,一直在3万美元左右浮动,2023年10月中旬低点到2.6万美元,直至2023年12月,价格再次突破4万美元关口。今年2月中旬以来,比特币价格加速上涨,距历史最高点仅一步之遥。

After that, Bitcoin prices rebounded and remained floating at around $30,000, ranging from $260 million in mid-October 2023, until December 2023, when prices broke out again at the 40,000-dollar threshold. Since mid-February of this year, Bitcoin prices have accelerated, just one step away from the highest point in history.

比特币如此波动巨大,且不同国家和地区对数字资产的监管政策差异较大,投资者切不可盲目入市。最近的例子来看,即便比特币价格大幅创下新高的过程中,也充满各种风险考验。

Bitcoins are so volatile, and the regulatory policies for digital assets vary widely across countries and regions that investors must not go into the market blindly. Recent examples suggest that even when bitcoin prices are so high, they are subject to a variety of risk tests.

2月29日,比特币在美股盘中突然飙高,突破6.4万美元大关,距历史新高仅一步之遥,但随后回落,几分钟之内就跌了5000美元,涨幅从最高13%收窄至一度不到6%。根据CoinGlass数据显示,当时,比特币市场有近18万人被爆仓。

On 29 February, Bitcoin suddenly jumped in the United States stock plate, breaking the $64,000 mark, one step away from history, but then fell back by $5,000 in a few minutes, a contraction from a maximum of 13% to less than 6% once. According to CoinGlass, nearly 180,000 people in the Bitcoin market were in storage at the time.

CoinGlass数据显示,截至29日12时10分的最近24个小时内,比特币交易所市场爆仓金额达2.94亿美元(合人民币超21亿元),其中多单爆仓金额为9371.02万美元(合人民币近7亿元);空单爆仓金额2亿美元(合人民币超14亿元)。

CoinGlass data show that in the last 24 hours as of 29 September at 12.10 p.m., the Bitcoin market exploded at $294 million (more than RMB 2.1 billion), of which more than $93.7102 million (close to RMB 700 million); and $200 million (more than RMB 1.4 billion) of the air bill.

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