比特幣不只是位元幣，還將帶動金融秩序的徹底改寫

在比特幣之前，幾乎所有廣為使用者接受的虛擬貨幣都是「中央集權」控制的。中央集權的壞處是：

Before the Bitcoins, almost all of the virtual currencies widely accepted by users were controlled by the ‘central collectivities’.

• 當權者可以「任意」決定要印多少鈔票
• 擊潰當權者就可以毀壞整個貨幣系統
• 當權者可以任意的修改貨幣使用規則

而「去中央化」之後，以上這些問題都會被解決。

與黃金相比，Bitcoin 的優勢是：

The advantages of Bitcoin compared to gold are:

• 更容易運送
• 更容易儲存與保全
• 更容易驗證
• 更容易切割

跟法定貨幣相比，Bitcoin 的優勢是：

The advantages of Bitcoin in comparison to the statutory currency are:

• 可預測且有上限的供給
• 沒有一個中央集權者可以控制它 (相對於央行可調整新台幣發行量)
• 不是基於債權的 (聯準會必須購買政府公債才能把美金實質打入經濟體中)

跟虛擬法定貨幣 (銀行帳戶餘額與 ATM 轉帳) 相比，Bitcoin 的優勢是：

The advantages of Bitcoin compared to the virtual legal currency (bank balance and ATM transfer) are:

• 不會因為單一銀行財務問題而產生擠兌、存款風險
• 交易速度通常更快
• 交易成本通常更低
• 可以是匿名的
• 不會被凍結 (銀行存款可能被政府扣押)

因此 Bitcoin 的確有解決上述三種較廣為接受的交易介質所不能解決的問題。

As a result, Bitcoin does solve problems that cannot be solved by the three more widely accepted mediums.

中央集權的美金，其價值基礎的確是美國政府的購買、償債與軍事能力，但相對來說，P2P 分散式的 Bitcoin，它的價值基礎卻不是所有參與電腦的運算能力。事實上，如果所有參與 Bitcoin 交易的「人類」明天睡醒都不想要 Bitcoin 了，那麼即使全體採礦電腦在過去花了再多運算與電力在維護這個系統，也不會使明天的 Bitcoin 再有任何價值。因此，Bitcoin 的價值基礎在於交易者的「信心」，而不在任何實質的東西。

The US dollar, which is centralized, is based on the US government’s buying, paying debts and military capabilities, but the P2P’s decentralized Bitcoin, by contrast, does not have the value base of all participating in computer computing. In fact, if all the “humans” involved in Bitcoin’s deal wake up tomorrow, Bitcoin does not want Bitcoin, then even if the entire mine computer used to operate and power it in the past to maintain the system, it will not make any more value for Bitcoin tomorrow. Therefore, Bitcoin’s value is based on the trader’s “confidence” rather than on anything real.

黃金的隱含價值是少數人穿戴它的慾望，相對的 Bitcoin 沒有辦法被拿來作其他用途，當然如果真的要說，單位比特幣裡面可以儲存約 1,000 筆交易資料，因此有隱含的「歷史價值」。但如果只看單位比特幣，那就錯過了整個全局。Bitcoin?真正的隱含價值是「網路效應」，也就是全體參與者賦予它的價值。想像 Facebook，如果你的朋友都不在上面，則這個平台一點價值也沒有。Facebook 之所以有價值，是全體參與者賦予它的，而同樣的道理也發生在電話、傳真機、網際網路等等我們生活中有極大價值的事物上面。與其他人交流是人類的心之所嚮，無論交流的是資訊、物質或是價值，因此比特幣最大的隱含價值，就是這個系統之上所產生的交易與網路效應。

The hidden value of gold is that few people wear its desires, and the relative Bitcoin cannot be used for any other purpose. Of course, if it is true, there are about 1,000 transactional data that can be stored in the unit bitcoins, so there is an implicit "historic value." If you look only at the unit bitcoins, it is missing the whole picture. Bitcoin?

通貨膨脹，也就是物價上漲，是貨幣供給快過於貨幣需求的結果，也就是國家發行貨幣的速度快過於人們需要貨幣來儲存與交易價值的速度。傳統上，由於貨幣由中央供給，因此當權者必須要正確的預測貨幣的需求，適時的供給，才能夠維持貨幣價值的穩定。而實務經濟學上，維持 2-4% 微幅年度通膨有很多好處，也因此是不少國家發行貨幣時的目標。但比特幣的設計的邏輯是相反的，它有既定的發行時程，而其價值漲跌就留給交易市場自行去決定。因此你可以說控制通膨不在比特幣的設計目標裡面，因此這個題目沒有任何意義。但實務上，即使發行量已知，由於參與交易的人類很難完全理性，因此比特幣的價值高度震盪，是可以預期的。

Inflation, that is, rising prices, is the result of currency supply faster than currency demand, i.e., national currency issuances faster than people need currency to save and trade value. Traditionally, because the currency is supplied centrally, the authorities have to predict the demand for currency correctly and provide it at the right time in order to maintain the value of the currency.

當 A 把一個 Bitcoin 支付給 B，B 的電腦需要向龐大的 P2P Bitcoin 網路確認 A 給他的這枚比特確實「存在」，而這個確認時間往往需要高達十分鐘。十分鐘對一筆交易來說是很長的時間，因此這也是比特幣作為交易介質目前顯著的缺點。想像 20 年前信用卡剛剛普及，每次刷卡時餐廳需要打電話向銀行確認那個狀況，Bitcoin 就是處在那裡。但經過這些年的演化，信用卡的交易現在已經幾乎是即時確認了，所以 Bitcoin 也會朝那個方向前進。無論是延伸 Bitcoin 的功能，或者是新一代更好的虛擬貨幣，這個 10 分鐘未來絕對會被壓縮至接近即時的速度。

When A pays a Bitcoin to B, B's computer needs to confirm to the big P2P Bitcoin network that this bit does exist to him, which often takes up to 10 minutes. Ten minutes is a long time for a transaction, so that's what Bitcoin is currently evident as a trade medium. Imagine 20 years ago when credit cards were just available, and Bitcoin needed to call the bank to confirm that situation. But, after all these years of evolution, credit card transactions are now almost instantaneous, so Bitcoin will also move in that direction. Either extend Bitcoin's function, or a new generation of better virtual currency, this 10-minute future will definitely be compressed to near-time speed.

這是 Bitcoin 網路長期最大的隱憂，當 2,100 萬枚 Bitoin 幾乎發行完畢，大約在 2040 年左右，本來參與採礦，順便維繫 Bitcoin 網路運作的所有電腦，就失去了繼續參與動力 ── 雖然它們還是可以從「確認交易」中賺取微薄的手續費，但那個價值應該遠遠低於採礦的報酬。當然，2040 年還很久，並且 Bitcoin 是一個開源專案，因此在那天到來前，整個維護它的社群可能會微幅修改設計來避免悲劇的發生。但如果沒有的話，那我們就得期待下一個變種的 P2P 貨幣，去完成 Bitcoin 沒有完成的革命。

This is the biggest concern of Bitcoin’s long-term network, when 21 million Bitoin were almost completed, about 2040, when they were involved in mining and were able to maintain all the computers operating on Bitcoin’s network, and lost their motivation – although they could still make a modest fee out of "recognizing the deal" – the value should be far less than the reward for mining. Of course, it was a long time ago, and Bitcoin was an open-source project, so before that day, the entire community that defended it might have made minor changes to avoid tragedy.

所以，從本質上來看，Bitcoin 的確是人類社會前所未見的價值儲存方式，並且相較於貨幣、黃金等先前的工具，它有著許多顯著的好處。然而就像所有第一代的革命性工具一樣，Bitcoin 的設計也不是沒有缺點，長期甚至還有巨大的隱憂。但無論 Bitcoin 自己本身會透過延伸、修正來解決這些問題，或是未來會有變種的 Bitcoin 出現，網路化、去中央化，絕對是人類金融秩序會走的方向，也是我們為什麼必須關注 Bitcoin 發展的最重要原因。

So, by its very nature, Bitcoin is a value-storage that has never been seen in human society, and it has a lot of advantages, compared to earlier tools such as currency, gold, etc. But, like all the revolutionary tools of the first generation, Bitcoin’s designs are not flawed, long-term, or even a lot of concern. But however, Bitcoin itself will have to extend, modify, or, in the future, change Bitcoin, Internetization, decentralization, which is definitely the direction of the human financial order, and the most important reason why we have to focus on Bitcoin’s development.

___