根据比特币的设计规则，7月9日将迎来四年一次的产量减半日，比特币矿工所能挖出的比特币数量由每10分钟25个比特币减至12.5个。但7月比特币价格不涨反跌，业内认为减半以后比特币价格暴涨的几率也不大。
According to Bitcoin’s design rules, the number of bitcoins that Bitcoin miners can dig down from 25 bitcoins per 10 minutes to 12.5 by 9 July, will be halved every four years. But the price of bitcoins will not rise or fall in July, and the industry’s perception that Bitcoin prices will rise sharply after the halving will not be significant.
作为世界四大数字货币之首（其他三大数字货币是以太坊、瑞波币、莱特币），比特币诞生于2009年1月3日，是一位自称中本聪(Satoshi Nakamoto)的匿名人士设计的去中心化、点对点（P2P）传输的数字加密货币。
As the world’s top four digital currencies (the other three in Taiku, Riboco, Leiteco), Bitcoin was born on 3 January 2009 as a decentralized, point-to-point (P2P) digital encrypted currency designed by an anonymous person claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto.
虽然没有中央银行来发行它们，但比特币可以通过在线完成艰巨任务来创建，这一过程被称为挖矿，所谓“挖矿”实质上是用超级算力的计算机解决一项复杂的数学问题，来保证比特币网络分布式记账系统的一致性。随后比特币网络会新生成一定量的比特币作为赏金，奖励获得答案的人。
Although there is no central bank to issue them, Bitcoin can be created by doing the hard work online, a process known as mining, which essentially solves a complex mathematical problem with a super-calculus computer to ensure consistency in the Bitcoin network distribution accounting system. The Bitcoin network will then generate a new amount of bitcoins as a reward for those who receive answers.
产量减半
而比特币产量减半是什么意思呢？ And what does that mean by halving bitcoin output? 中国比特币交易平台OKCoin的创始人、CEO徐明星对澎湃新闻解释，比特币设计之初模拟黄金的特点，总量恒定、不能人工合成，且可以开采的量越来越少。中本聪的规则指定，流通中的比特币数量以递减的速度增长，最大数额为2100万，比特币网络每10分钟释放出一定数量币，预计将在2140年达到极限。 China’s Bitcoin trading platform, the founder of OKCoin, CEO Star Xu, explained to the news that Bitcoin was designed to simulate the characteristics of gold, and that the amount of gold was constant, uncombinable, and less and less exploitable. The Chinese rules specified that the number of bitcoins in circulation should grow at a reduced rate, with a maximum of 21 million, and that the Bitcoin network would release a certain amount of coins every 10 minutes, and was expected to reach its limit in 2140. 按照中本聪的设计，大概是每4年产量会减少一半，一开始是每天会发行7000个比特币，而4年之后，就会变成3500个，现在减少到了1750个。受比特币供需关系影响，开采比特币的“矿工”在成本不变的情况下所获得的比特币数量将减少，如果比特币价值保持恒定，那么矿工的收入将减少。 By design, it would be about half of every four years, starting with 7,000 bitcoins per day, but four years later it would be 3,500, which is now down to 1750. Depending on the relationship between the supply and demand of bitcoins, the number of bitcoins obtained by the “miners” who mined bitcoins would be reduced at no more cost, and if bitcoins were kept constant, the miners’ revenues would be reduced. 而对于产量减半的价格影响，徐明星表示：“减半以后因为供应减少了，很多资本来炒作这个事情，觉得减半是不是以后价格会大涨，最近比特币价格出现很大的波动。” For the price impact of halving production, Xu Star said: “When the reduction in supply is followed by a reduction in the supply, so much capital is used to make this happen, does it feel that the reduction in the reduction in prices is likely to rise sharply and that the price of bitcoin has fluctuated significantly recently.” 澎湃新闻发现，从5月开始比特币已经经历过3轮大涨，今年6月比特币价格又强势拉升，从每个3480元上涨到最高点5185元，但7月初有跌落迹象，目前价格在4300元左右。 The news shows that Bitcoin has experienced three major rounds since May, and that in June of this year, the price of bitcoin rose further, from $3480 to a peak of $5185, but there were signs of a fall in early July, at a current price of around $4300. 对于这样的价格波动，火币网联合创始人杜均对澎湃新闻表示，“减半的重大利好被提前消化了。” For such price fluctuations, the co-founder of the TPN, Dou, stated to the news that “the major advantage of reducing the half was absorbed in advance”. 火币运营副总裁朱嘉伟解释道，目前比特币的应用十分脆弱，加上比特币本身没有涨跌幅限制，所以一旦有比较重大的消息，比特币价格波动就会比较明显，“比特币的发行是一件公开透明的事情。在这样的机制下，所有比特币系统的参与者都可以对这个变量做出预判和应对，这就导致产量对价格的影响能够被提前消化。” The Vice-President of the Fire Currency Operation, Chu Jiave, explained that the current use of bitcoin was fragile, and that there was no limit on bitcoin per se, so that once there was significant news, bitcoin price fluctuations became more apparent, “The issue of bitcoin was an open and transparent matter. Under such a mechanism, all Bitcoin system participants could prejudge and respond to this variable, which would lead to an earlier digestion of the impact of production on prices.” 实际上，这已经是比特币第二次产量减半了。 In fact, this is already half the second production of Bitcoin. 朱嘉伟介绍，2009年至2012年，比特币经历了第一次减半。在比特币的第一个减半周期内，比特币的价格从0上涨到最高30美元。推动价格上升的，是人们对比特币价值的认可，而不是供应量的变化。因此，在第一轮产量减半前后，比特币并未迎来大涨的行情。 In the first halving cycle of Bitcoin, the price of bitcoin rose from zero to a maximum of $30. The price rise was driven by recognition of bitcoin value, not by changes in supply. So, before and after halving the first round of production, bitcoin did not rise. 而最近的第二次产量减半也不会带来下一轮暴涨。朱嘉伟认为，除非比特币有重大利好信息，如应用上的推进，比特币减半之后对比特币出现暴涨行情的可能性不大。 And the recent second round of halving production will not lead to the next surge. Jojavi argues that unless Bitcoin has significant positive information, such as application advances, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will see a surge after halving the number of bitcoins. 截至目前比特币总市值突破100亿美元，而中国内地比特币交易量如今已占全球交易量的80%左右。如果减去大量重复交易，核算下来中国的份额大约占全球比特币市场的30-40%左右。 To date, the total market value of Bitcoins has passed by $10 billion, while the Chinese and mainland bitcoins now account for about 80% of global transactions. If a large number of duplicates are deducted, China’s share is accounted for at around 30-40% of the global Bitcoin market. 不能作为支付手段 cannot be used as a means of payment 根据火币网最新一次抽样调查，火币的用户有80.77%投资比特币是为了短期盈利，通过差价赚取利润；有13.81%的用户将比特币当做避险资产，长期持有；还有1.26%用户是为了进行支付。 According to the latest sample survey of the network, 80.77 per cent of the users of the currency invested in bitcoin for short-term profit, earning profits through the margin; 13.81 per cent of the users held bitcoin as a risk-free asset for a long period of time; and 1.26 per cent of the users for payment. 虽然比特币被炒得火热，但一直以来因为其去中心化特点不被央行认可，也不能被认为是一种支付手段。 Although Bitcoin has been fired, it has not been recognized by the central bank because of its decentralized character, nor can it be considered a means of payment. 早在2014年的博鳌亚洲论坛上，央行行长周小川就曾指出，“比特币更像是一种资产和收藏品，有点类似收藏的邮票，而不是支付货币工具。” As early as 2014, at the Asian Forum in Boone, Central Bank President Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out, “bitcoin is more of an asset and a collection, a bit of a collection of stamps than a payment tool”. 在今年6月24日召开的首届大数据金融论坛上，中国人民银行调查统计司司长盛松成也重提了“比特币不是真正的货币”这一观点，表示“只要国家这一社会组织形态不发生根本性变化，以国家信用为基础的货币体系就将始终存在，比特币以及其他虚拟货币就成不了一国的本位币，比特币实际上只是一种技术的运用，最多也就是一种资产，而不是真正意义上的货币。” At the first major data finance forum, held on 24 June this year, the Director-General of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, Seon Song, also reiterated the view that “bitcoin is not a real currency”, stating that “as long as there is no fundamental change in the shape of the State as a social organization, a monetary system based on State credit will always exist, that bitcoin and other virtual currencies will not be a local currency of a country, and that bitcoin is actually only a technical use, at best an asset, not a currency in the real sense”. 虽然央行也开始研究数字货币发行，但目前看来与比特币关系不大。 Although central banks have also begun to study digital currency issuances, they do not appear to have much to do with bitcoin at this time. 今年1月20日央行召开了中国央行数字货币研讨会，会议要求进一步明确央行发行数字货币的战略目标，争取早日推出央行发行的数字货币。盛松成表示，未来的央行数字货币将可能是基于区块链技术、具有分散式账簿特点的本位币，并涉及包括移动支付、可信可控云计算、密码算法、安全芯片等在内的其他相关技术。 On January 20, the Central Bank convened a seminar on the Chinese Central Bank’s digital currency, which called for further clarification of the Bank’s strategic goal of issuing digital currency, with a view to the early introduction of digital currency issued by the Central Bank. Happiness suggests that the future central bank’s digital currency could be based on block-chain technology, local currencies with decentralized book features, and other relevant technologies, including mobile payments, credible controlled cloud computing, cryptographic algorithms, security chips, etc. 而今年2月在接受财新采访时，央行行长周小川提及，对于央行掌控的数字货币，会采用一系列的技术手段、机制设计和法律法规，来确保数字货币运行体系的安全，一开始就与比特币的设计思想有区别。 In February of this year, in a new financial interview, Central Bank President Zhou Xiaochuan mentioned that a series of technical tools, mechanisms and laws would be used to ensure the security of the digital currency operating system, as opposed to Bitcoin’s design. 底层技术区块链获青睐 在数字货币之外，央行更加关注的是作为比特币的底层技术的区块链技术，即分布式账本技术，为此还专门成立了区块链小组。 In addition to the digital currency, the central bank is more concerned with block chain technology, i.e. distributed book technology, as the bottom technology of Bitcoin, for which a block chain group has been set up. 徐明星介绍，区块链目前可能的应用领域是银行间清算和证券审计。比如，现在由世界上最大的44家银行组成的一个区块链清算网络，要做新一代的银行间的清算体系，每个银行成为另外一个区块链网络的一个节点。而纳斯达克用区块链做股权交易的审计，大大节约了审计的成本，“此外还有人用区块链做公证，做微支付，越来越多的人觉得区块链技术在更多的领域内有重大的发展。” For example, a network of now 44 of the world’s largest banks would be a new generation of inter-bank liquidation systems, with each bank becoming a nodal point in another network of blocks. Nasdak’s use of block chains to audit equity transactions would greatly save the cost of auditing, and “some people would notarize, make small payments, and more and more feel that block chain technology is developing significantly in more areas.” 最新的消息是，央行牵头组建的中国互联网金融协会6月15日召开会议，成立区块链研究工作组。 The latest news is that the Chinese Internet Finance Association, led by the Central Bank, convened a meeting on 15 June to establish a block chain research working group. 徐明星在阐释分布式账本对互联网金融的意义时表示，国家要求P2P不能搞资金池，不能融新还旧，不能自融，“那我们给它设计，当一个用户在一家P2P买1万元理财的时候，会在这个用户的计算机同步一个信息到区块链上，由用户往上写，不是由P2P公司往上写，当这笔钱借给另外一个人，借款人的浏览器会发一条数据到这个区块链上来，这样就会形成投资人跟借款人来写的一条区块链信息，而且技术上能做到不能伪造、不能篡改，P2P公司有没有资金池就很清楚，这就是分布式账本的意义。” In explaining the significance of distributed books for Internet finance, Star Seo stated that the State required P2P not to have access to a pool, not to be old or old, “then we designed it, when a user buys $10,000 from a P2P, to synchronize a message from the user's computer to a block chain, to be written up by the user, not by P2P, and when the money is loaned to another person, the borrower's browser will send a data to this block, which will form a chain of information written by the investor and the borrower and which technologically cannot be forged or tampered with. It is clear whether P2P has a pool of funds, which is the meaning of the distribution book.”
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