比特幣從網絡走進現實道阻且長
bitcoins from the internet into reality and long
從2017年年初的1000多美元起步，比特幣去年價格最高時至2萬美元，但在2017年12月18日上線芝加哥商品交易所后，不到一周就跌去40%。過山車般的行情盡管刺激，但卻依舊令人神往，比特幣無疑是過去一年裡投資領域耀眼的一顆星。
Starting with more than $1,000 at the beginning of 2017, Bitcoins had the highest price of $20,000 last year, but fell 40% in less than a week after coming to the Chicago Commodity Exchange on December 18, 2017. Driven as exciting as it is, yet still amazing, Bitcoins is a bright star in the investment field over the past year.
當地時間2014年6月21日，美國洛杉磯，美國加州南部首次正式啟用兩台比特幣自動取款機。
On June 21, 2014, in Los Angeles, the United States of America, for the first time in southern California, used two bits of automatic teller machines.
經歷9月國內政策影響下的一系列調整后，比特幣短期蟄伏便再度攜一眾數字貨幣重回高點，年末幾個月近乎不可思議地連續刷新歷史最高價。不過不容忽視的，追捧它的信眾懷抱“一幣一別墅”的美好期待，不惜貸款、加杠杆，甚至賣房炒幣，追趕所謂“牛市”，蘊含的投資風險加速累積。隨著以華爾街為代表的投資機構逐步進場，2018年比特幣的世界裡或免不了一場血雨腥風的較量。
After a series of adjustments under the influence of domestic policy in September, Bitcoins re-emerged with a large number of digitized coins, and in the end of the year nearly irreconcilably renewed the highest price in history. But it should not be overlooked that its followers hold the good expectations of a “one dollar, one house” by borrowing, leveraging, or even selling, and pursuing the so-called “cow market” – the risk of investment accelerated. As Wall Street’s investment facility gradually entered the field, the world in 2018 was not free of a blood storm.
比特幣綻放“怒放的生命”
bitcoins play "Anger Lives"
郁金香泡沫、龐氏騙局、毫無意義費電的數字符號……無論外界如何評價，比特幣在2017年用近20倍的驚人漲幅，讓瞧不上它的人一再被“打臉”。
Tulip bubbles, Ponzi scams, numbers of meaningless electric charges... Whatever the outside world will judge, the bitcoin rose nearly 20 times in 2017, allowing those who fail to see it to be “faced” repeatedly.
2017年12月17日，比特幣在全國各數字貨幣交易平台普遍沖上2萬美元，創下歷史新高。在10月底時，比特幣才剛剛攀上6000美元，在當時看來這已經近乎是一個高不可攀的價格。如果回望年初，比特幣的價格則隻有1000多美元。
On December 17, 2017, Bitcoins generally hit 20,000 dollars in the country’s digital currency trading platforms, creating an all-time high. By the end of October, Bitcoins had just climbed 6,000 dollars, which seemed to be a near-high price.
“你每次都會覺得它到‘天花板’了，可第二天就會用破最高價來顛覆你的認知。”比特幣投資人劉鵬告訴記者。他說，比特幣跨過整數關口的速度越來越快。數據顯示，比特幣從0美元到1000美元經歷了1789天，從9000美元到10000美元經歷了2天，而從18000美元到19000美元隻經歷了彈指一揮間3分鐘。
"You're going to think it's on the ceiling every time, but the next day you're going to overturn it with the highest price." Bitcoin infusion tells reporters. He says the bitcoin is going to cross the integer threshold faster and faster. According to the data, bitcoins went through 1789 days from zero to $1,000, two days from $9,000 to $10,000, and three minutes from $18,000 to $19,000.
在2017年12月11日率先亮相芝加哥期權交易所時，一路高漲，數次觸發熔斷機制，官網一度因擁堵而癱瘓——首個交易日，比特幣的絢麗華爾茲舞步令人著迷。盡管上線芝加哥商品交易所一周內大跌，但投資者歷經多次“幣災”洗禮，心態平穩，比特幣行情也逐漸回暖。
In December 11, 2017, when he led the Chicago Stock Exchange, he went up, several times triggered a break-up, and the official network was blocked for a while – on the first day of the deal – Bitcoin’s livin’ waltz dance was fascinating. Despite the collapse of the online Chicago Commodity Exchange within a week, investors had been baptized through several “currency catastrophes” and calmed down, and bitcoins were getting warmer.
比特幣投資的火爆，從注冊用戶數量的激增也可見一斑。國際數字貨幣交易所之一的Coinbase在2017年9月初用戶數為1000多萬，而僅最近兩個月就增加了200多萬。其賬戶數已經超過了傳統經紀公司嘉信理財，這意味著比特幣投資正日益主流化。由國內團隊推出的火幣全球專業站，僅11月新用戶增幅就高達2055%。
Coinbase, one of the international digital currency exchanges, had more than 10 million users in early September 2017, while it had increased by more than 2 million in the last two months. Its account count has surpassed the creditworthiness of traditional regulators, which means that Bitcoins are increasingly being mainstreamed.
如今，比特幣全球總市值最高已達3000億美元，超越了迪士尼、通用電氣等老牌公司，放在A股也幾乎不輸任何一家上市公司。
Today, the total global market value of the Bitcoins is as high as $300 billion, surpassing old companies such as Disney, General Electric, and hardly any listed company in A shares.
瘋狂背后暗藏多重“推手”
2017年9月4日，中國人民銀行等7部委聯合發布《關於防范代幣發行融資風險的公告》，彼時比特幣曾一度大跌，不少山寨幣甚至兩度腰斬。時隔3個月，比特幣緣何再度瘋狂？
On September 4, 2017, the People’s Bank of China and seven other ministries issued a joint communiqué on the risks of capitalizing on the currency, which was once a big drop in the currency of Pygmy, with a lot of bountiful coins being cut off twice. Three months later, why is it crazy again?
一方面，華爾街青睞讓投資者看到了比特幣步入主流投資品的希望。據火幣區塊鏈應用研究院分析，比特幣期貨登陸華爾街的預期，是造成此前價格一路上漲的重要原因。期貨是基於商品和金融產品的一種金融衍生品，最大用途在於管理風險和價格發現。通過期貨可以對沖市場的波動，增加市場深度，避免價格不透明而被操縱。這無疑是給華爾街機構送來了夢寐以求、免於“裸游”的救生圈。
On the one hand, Wall Street offers investors the hope that bitcoins will move into the mainstream. According to the Fire Currency Chain Institute, the expected arrival of bitcoins on Wall Street was an important reason for the previous price hike.
后續，紐交所、納斯達克也有計劃上線比特幣相關交易。專家分析指出，比特幣在國際交易的進一步合法化是引發大量投資人入場的最大原因。“更多人意識到這個圈子賺錢，無論開交易所、建資訊平台、開場外交易，都在呈幾何倍數增長。”
In the aftermath, the New Deal House, and Nasdak, have planned online bitcoin-related transactions. Experts have analysed that the further legalization of bitcoins in international transactions is the biggest cause of large numbers of investors entering the market. “More people realize that the circle is making money, regardless of how much the exchange, the information platform, and the off-the-shelf transactions are multiplying.”
另一方面，隨著應用加快落地，解決了比特幣自誕生之初就面臨的最大困境。應用是比特幣存在的根基。相比誕生最初幾年裡可用來買披薩、支付咖啡，如今比特幣落地的應用除了購房、買車、交學費之類的噱頭外，更具延展性。
On the other hand, the speed with which the appliance has landed has solved the biggest dilemma faced by the bitcoins since their birth. The appliance is the foundation of the bitcoins’ existence.
美國黃金交易商接受比特幣付款，日本最大二手車集團與交易所合作接受比特幣支付……同為數字貨幣的以太幣，最近更是被應用到一種網絡虛擬養貓游戲中，這讓投資者看到了數字貨幣應用的堅實步伐。業內人士認為，如果說2017年是數字貨幣爆發元年，那麼2018年很可能是數字貨幣應用大規模落地元年。
U.S. gold traders accept bitcoins for payment, and Japan’s largest second-hand car syndicates cooperate with the exchange to accept bitcoins for payment... The same digit coins, in Ether, have recently been used in a virtual cat-raising game, which has enabled investors to see the solid pace at which digits should be used. In industry’s view, if the year 2017 is the year of digital currency explosion, it is likely that the year 2018 will be the year of digital currency’s massive fall.
另外，地緣政治緊張也使比特幣被推崇作為黃金之外的避險工具。之前津巴布韋政權動蕩，當地比特幣價格比全球平均高出50%以上。最近朝鮮半島局勢緊張，比特幣創下新高，韓國數字資產交易所Bithumb的比特幣價格一度高出全球平均價格的20%。
In addition, geopolitical tensions have led to the promotion of bitcoins as a hedge against gold. Previously, Zimbabwe’s governing power moved, with local bitcoins costing more than 50% more than the global average.
投資者看來，相比黃金白銀，比特幣通過交易所及冷、熱錢包攜帶方便，變現也更為容易，稱得上是“硬通貨”。
Investors seem to find it easier and easier to change than gold and silver to carry it through the exchange and cold, hot wallets, calling it “hard currency”.
風險隨時將至投資仍需“去杠杆”
Risks will still need to be “deleveraging” for investment at any given time
比特幣的上漲有沒有“天花板”？有市場研究機構稱，2018年比特幣就將飆升至2萬美元。哈佛學者則預測，10萬美元也許並不是夢。
Is there a “calculus” in the rise in bitcoins? There are market researchers who claim that bitcoins will rise to $20,000 in 2018. Harvard scholars predict that $100,000 may not be a dream.
黃金錢包首席研究員肖磊、蘇寧金融研究院研究員薛洪言等人士認為，盡管不乏看好者，但比特幣身邊布滿雷區，“決堤”也許並不遙遠。事實上，比特幣不是資產的絕對安全避風港，其價格受諸多因素影響，盲目賣房、貸款、加杠杆炒幣很可能會陷入萬劫不復的深淵。
In fact, Bitcoins are not an absolute safe haven for assets, and their prices are influenced by many factors, with blind sales of houses, loans, and leveraged and fired coins likely to fall into the abyss.
各國政策不確定性仍舊是比特幣面臨最大風險。比特幣由於對法幣直接提出挑戰，以及其被違法“黑暗”應用所持，始終不受各國政府待見，游走在合法與非法邊緣。來自挖礦、交易大國的任何重大政策決定，幾乎都會引發其斷崖式下跌或暴漲。
The Bitcoin, because of its direct challenge to the French coin and its illegal “dark” applications, is not always seen by governments, and is on the illegal and legal edge. Any major policy decision from mining, trading, or trading countries will almost always lead to a precipitous fall or surge.
最近，韓國對數字貨幣投資的政策調整就一度讓比特幣呈現“瀑布”行情。目前，圈內擔心我國繼續對比特幣的幣幣交易及場外交易出台政策。一旦傳言中的靴子落地，比特幣將再度面臨沉重打擊。
Recently, South Korea’s policy of investing in digital currency was adjusted to give Bitcoins a “fallfall” scenario. At present, the circle is concerned about our country’s continuing policy on bitcoin and off-site transactions. Once the rumoured boots are on the ground, bitcoins will again be hit hard.
數字貨幣層出不窮，也紛紛挑戰比特幣領頭羊地位。這些年，比特幣一路風雨並不孤獨，萊特幣、以太經典、比特股、達世幣等上千種幣先后誕生，山寨幣成為賺錢效應的新領軍者。一種名為IOTA的幣在兩年時間裡最高上漲5萬多倍備受矚目，瘋狂程度令人瞠目。除了這些新生代數字貨幣，比特幣分叉的“兒子”們也在頻頻向比特幣的皇位發起挑戰。
The digital currency is not poor, it also challenges the status of a bitcoin leader. These years, the Bitcoin has not been a lonely journey, and the Bitcoin, the Etheric, the Bitcoat, and the World Bank have been born of thousands of coins, and the mountain coin has become a new leader for making money. A currency called IOTA has risen by more than 50,000 times over two years, and is insanely insane. In addition to these new generation numeric currencies, the “sons” of the Bitcoins have also been on the air to challenge the throne of the Bitcoin.
此外，華爾街等機構投資者入市后，做空或頻繁出現。主流觀點認為，投資機構入市將逐漸改變個人散戶投資佔主的比特幣投資局面，比特幣可能會被“馴服”，其價格的波動性將減弱。但從最近行情看，比特幣價格仍猶如過山車般起伏不定。“這可能是有史以來最大的做空機會，也許會創造歷史。”有比特幣投資者認為。
Moreover, investors in institutions like Wall Street have entered the market, either empty or frequent. The mainstream view is that the investment agency's entry will gradually change the investment profile of the bulk of private investors in bitcoins, and that bitcoins may be “subtracted” and their prices will become less volatile. But, according to recent experience, bitcoins are still as volatile as cars. “This may be the biggest opportunity ever, perhaps making history.”
更為關鍵的是，價格暴漲背后是以比特幣之名的沉渣泛起：幣圈庄家採用股市手法收割“韭菜”司空見慣，勒索病毒一波接著一波肆虐，跑路的交易所不時挑動著投資人的神經，黑客甚至開始劫持數字貨幣平台負責人索取比特幣……看好比特幣作為“數字黃金”的未來，首先仍需明確對策，強化監管，規范運營，既是保障投資人利益，更是為比特幣爭取一個坦蕩蕩的未來。
Even more crucially, the price boom has been sunk in the name of bitcoins: currency circles are accustomed to using stock market tactics to harvest “cooked vegetables”, blackmailing the virus after a wave, running exchanges from time to time provoking investors' nerves, hackers have even started to hijack digital money platforms to demand bitcoins... Seeing the future of bitcoins as “digit gold”, first of all, there is a need for clarity, stronger supervision, and a rule-based operation, both to safeguard investors' interests and, more importantly, to compete for a grand future for bitcoins.
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