盘点比特币四次暴涨暴跌：未来迷茫 切勿追涨

　　不要追涨比特币 

Don't raise Bitcoin & nbsp;

　　燃财经（ID：rancaijing）原创

Original by ID:rancaijing

　　作者 | 王琳

Author: Wang Lin.

　　编辑 | 阿伦

- Oh, my God. - Allan.

　　股市遇冷，币市回春。

The stock market's cold, the currency's coming back.

　　5月10日开始，比特币价格一路向上。5月11日，比特币价格突破6900美元；5月12日，比特币价格突破7500美元；5月13日，比特币价格突破7800美元；5月14日，比特币价格突破8000美元大关，当天“比特币上涨突破8000美元”上了微博热搜；截至发稿前，比特币价格超过8200美元，相比于去年最低点已经翻了两倍还多。

On May 11, the price of Bitcoin passed $6,900; on May 12, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $7,500; on May 13, the price of Bitcoin exceeded the price of $7,800; on May 14, the price of Bitcoin crossed the $8,000 mark and “bitcoin rose by $8,000” the same day on microblogging; by the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin had exceeded $8,200, more than double the price at its lowest point last year.

　　某交易所今年3月2日以来的比特币K线图

BitcoinK line of an exchange since March 2nd of this year.

　　种种迹象表明，全球市值最大的加密货币，正在经历一次回暖，其他加密货币也有小幅度涨幅。

There are indications that the most marketable encrypt currency in the world is experiencing a one-time warming and that other encrypt currencies have also increased slightly.

　　过去一天，EOS、ETH、莱特币、瑞波币等加密货币也呈现不同程度涨幅，火币平台上，ETH涨幅高达13.35%，EOS涨幅高达9.78%。

The past day has also seen various increases in encrypted currencies such as EOS, ETH, Leitecoin and Rippoon, with an increase of up to 13.35 per cent on the ETH platform and 9.78 per cent in EOS.

　　涨幅如此之快，超过了天天呼唤牛市的很多币圈人的预期。DFund合伙人杨林苑说，“从技术面上分析，我们认为6200美元是一个很有难度的点位，因为这个点位附近有很多套牢盘会有巨大抛压，但没想到币价没有回调而是势如破竹涨到了8000美元”。

The increase was so rapid that it exceeded the expectations of many of the currency circles calling for the bull market every day. The DFund partner, Yang Linjun, said, “Technologically, we think that $6,200 is a very difficult location, because there are a lot of punctuations around this point, but it is not surprising that the currency has not returned but that the price has risen to $8,000”.

　　所有人都想知道，这次比特币大涨背后的真正原因是什么？一些人则在上涨态势前蠢蠢欲动，忘记了去年比特币价格断崖式下跌时的惨况。

Everyone wants to know what the real reason is behind this huge increase in bitcoin. Some people are moving before the rise, forgetting what happened last year when the price of bitcoin fell off a cliff.

　　原因1：USDT危机，BTC成避险选择

Reason 1: USDT crisis, BTC is a risk-free option

　　梳理比特币价格时间线，不难发现，此次大涨起源于USDT危机。

Combine the price line for bitcoin, and it is easy to find that the surge originated in the USDT crisis.

　　USDT是Tether公司发行的“稳定币”，Tether承诺每发行一个USDT都保证有1美元存在银行里。用户可以将法币兑换成USDT去交易所交易，USDT则成为一个比比特币更好的标尺，也成为良好的保值代币，其在稳定币领域的市场份额比一度接近90%。

The USDT is a “stabilized currency” issued by Tether, which promised to keep a dollar in a bank for every USDT issue. Users can convert French currency into USDT for exchange transactions, and USDT becomes a better ruler than bitcoins, and a good value-fixing currency, with a market share of nearly 90 per cent in the area of stable currency.

　　Tether的母公司名为iFinex Inc．，除去Tether，这家公司同时运营着一家名为Bitfinex的交易所。Bitfinex是全球排名第五的交易所，同时也是全球最大的美元BTC交易平台。就这样，整个加密世界通过Finex Inc．与美元世界挂钩。

Tether's parent company, iFinex Inc., is also running an exchange called Bitfinex. Bitfinex is the fifth largest exchange in the world and the largest dollar BTC trading platform in the world. So the world of encryption is connected to the dollar world through Finex Inc.

　　但美国当地时间4月25日下午4：15，纽约州检方将Tether及其母公司iFinex Inc．以及Bitfinex告上了法庭，起诉书称，在iFinex Inc．实际控制人操纵下：

However, on 25 April, at 4:15 p.m., U.S. local time, the New York state prosecution brought Tether and his parent company iFinex Inc. and Bitfinex before the court. The indictment states that under the effective control of iFinex Inc.:

　　· USDT发行人Tether公司关联方——加密交易所Bitfinex客户和企业的8.5亿美元资金遭冻结，导致客户无法提现；

• & nbsp; USDT issuer, Teth, Associated Party - The Encrypted Exchange Bitfinex Clients and Enterprises, US$ 850 million, frozen, resulting in clients not being able to cash them;

　　· 为弥补漏洞，Bitfinex了“挪用”了Tether公司8.5亿美元；

& nbsp; Bitfinex “embezzled” $850 million from Tether to close the gap;

　　· 通过Tether公司进行增发USDT作为储备金。

& nbsp; incremental USDT through Tether as a reserve.

　　“这就意味着USDT不是100%承兑了，导致大家对USDT的恐慌，很多人因此抛售USDT换成BTC避险，BTC价格上涨。”DFund合伙人杨林苑告诉燃财经。

“This means that the USDT is not 100% acceptance, leading to panic about the USDT, and that many people sell the USDT instead of BTC for risk, and the BTC rises.” DFund's partner Yang Lin Xing told him to burn the money.

　　随后，Bitfinex启动应对危机的一个解决方案——发行10亿美元的LEO用来IEO（首次交易发行，指以交易所为核心发行代币；代币跳过ICO这步，直接上线交易所），而此次IEO募集到的资金则作为”被美政府冻结了8.5亿美元“期间的周转资金。

Subsequently, Bitfinex launched a solution to the crisis by issuing $1 billion in LEO for IEO (the first transaction is issued with the exchange as its core; the currency skips the ICO and goes directly to the exchange), while the funds collected by IEO were used as “the working capital of the US government for the period of $850 million”.

　　值得注意的是LEO全部用USDT来认购，而仅仅用了10天时间，Bitfinex便完成了这次认购。“大量USDT被冻结在这个上面了，所以就推升了BTC的进一步上涨”。

It is worth noting that the LEO used USDT for all of its subscriptions, which took only 10 days for Bitfinex to complete. “A lot of USDTs were frozen on this one, so it pushed the BTC up further”.

　　hpool矿池创始人虫哥表达了类似的观点，他表示：94之前在数字货币的交易生态里，稳定货币就是法币，但是94以后，法币一刀切，没有任何替代品，比特币就成了数字货币里的法币，用来交易各种山寨币。因此94以后比特币大涨，但是随着USDT的推出，USDT代替了数字货币里的法币，反而对比特币的需求没这么强烈，这次USDT出事，很明显很多资金选择避险重新换回比特币。

The founder of the hpool pond expressed a similar view, stating that the stable currency was the French currency in the trading ecology of the digital currency before 94, but after 94, with no alternatives, bitcoin became the French currency in the digital currency for trading in various bounties. Thus, after 94, bitcoins rose, but with the introduction of the USDT, USDT replaced the French currency in the digital currency, and the demand for bitcoins was not so strong.

　　但USDT只是前奏。

But USDT is just the prelude.

　　原因2：地缘政治、股市暴跌

Reason 2: Geopolitics, stock market crash

　　地缘政治因素成了此轮暴涨的一个非常重要的诱因。

Geopolitical factors were a very important incentive for the boom.

　　“从技术层面来看，6200美元是一个有难度的点位，在这个点位有很多套牢盘。”DFund合伙人杨林苑表示，这意味着当币价超过6200美元，会出现大规模抛售引起的回调。

“Technologically, $6,200 is a difficult point, where there are a lot of bars.” According to the DFund partner, Yang Linjun, this means that when the currency exceeds $6,200, there will be a large-scale sellback.

　　但事实是，比特币并没有出现回调，而是势如破竹，很快突破7000美元、8000美元大关，“7000之后就没有那么多的套牢盘”。

The truth, however, is that Bitcoin did not come back, but was in a state of disarray, quickly breaking the $7,000 and $8,000 mark, and that “there are not as many bars after 7,000”.

　　在DFund合伙人杨林苑看来，这主要是由于全球最大的两个经济体出现了摩擦，这个摩擦直接导致股市暴跌。

According to the DFund partner, Yang Linjun, this is mainly due to friction between the two largest economies in the world, which directly led to a collapse in the stock market.

　　5月14日，纳指创2019年迄今最大单日跌幅，标普500指数收跌69.53点，跌幅2.41%；道琼斯工业平均指数收跌617.38点，跌幅2.38%；纳斯达克综合指数收跌269.92点，跌幅3.41%。

On 14 May, it was the largest single-day drop since 2019, with a decline of 69.53 points, or 2.41 per cent, in the PHP 500 index; a fall of 617.38 points, or 2.38 per cent, in the Dow Jones industrial average; and a fall of 269.92, or 3.41 per cent, in the NASDAQ composite index.

　　这个时候数字黄金比特币成了最佳选择，比特币具有一些跟黄金类似的价值尺度，这些价值使得比特币储值性优于法定货币，而流通性优于黄金，“相比黄金，比特币是更好的避险选择”。DFund合伙人杨林苑表示，“无论哪个经济体出现动荡的时候，都会出现大规模的买盘和币价上涨，而这次又是全球最大的两个经济体，影响就更大了。”

At that time, digital gold was the best option, with bitcoin having values similar to gold, which made bitcoins superior to legal currencies, and liquidity better than gold, “better than gold, Bitcoin is a better risk-free option.” According to DFund partner Yang Linjun, “when there is turmoil in any economy, there will be large-scale increases in the purchase of plates and currency prices, and this time the two largest economies in the world, the impact will be even greater.”

　　事实上，在一些国家乃至世界重大政治事件中，比特币确实表现出了避险资产的属性。

Indeed, in major political events in some countries, and indeed in the world, Bitcoin did demonstrate the attributes of a hedge asset.

　　2013年4月，爆发“塞浦路斯事件”，比特币短短几天从30多美元飙涨到265美元。2016年6月，英国成功投票“脱欧”消息一出，比特币价格瞬间从550美元左右涨至650美元。

In April 2013, the “Cypriot affair” broke out, with Bitcoin skyrocketing from over $30 to $265 in just a few days. In June 2016, the United Kingdom successfully voted “de-European” and the price of Bitcoin rose immediately from about $550 to $650.

　　“整个泡沫的升起和破灭，和地缘政治的紧张与缓和是共振的”，比特币资深投资者夜猫（网名btcnightcat）在2018年接受巴比特采访时表示。

“The entire bubble rises and collapses, as well as geopolitical tensions and de-escalation, were resonanced” by the Senior Bitcoin Investor Nightcat (webname btcnightcat), who gave an interview with Babbitt in 2018.

　　成功从比特币交易中获利的盛宝银行前首席执行官兼Concordium创始人Lars Seier Christensen指出：“贸易逆风和比特币价格上涨之间似乎存在相关性。显然，部分投资者正出于忧虑而买入比特币。”

Lars Seeer Christensen, former CEO and founder of Concordium, who succeeded in profiting from the Bitcoin transaction, said: “There seems to be a correlation between the reverse trade winds and the price increases in bitcoin. Clearly, some investors are buying bitcoin out of concern.”

　　不过，也有人不同意这种观点。OK战略副总裁徐坤表示，中美摩擦升级确实加速了BTC的上涨幅度和速度，也是快速突破8000美元的主要因素，但并非整体行情的根本原因。

However, there are also those who disagree with this view. According to Executive Vice-President Xu Gon of the OK Strategy, the escalation of friction between China and the United States has indeed accelerated the rise and speed of BTC and was a major factor in a rapid breakthrough of $8,000, but not the underlying cause of the overall situation.

　　原因3：主流市场认可，利好偏多

Reason 3: Mainstream market recognition, preferred over

　　在她看来，从今年年初以来，市场已经进入恢复期，基本面是向好的。

In her view, since the beginning of the year, the market had entered a recovery phase, the basics of which were positive.

　　1月底，德国第二大证券交易所Boerse Stuttgart宣布已正式推出加密货币交易应用程序Bison，该程序将上线BTC、XRP、ETH以及LTC等数字货币。

At the end of January, Boerse Stuttgart, the second largest stock exchange in Germany, announced the official launch of the encrypted currency trading application Bison, which will be available in digital currencies such as BTC, XRP, ETH and LTC.

　　3月，据彭博社和纽约时报报道，Facebook正在研发一种新的可用于全球支付的加密货币。同时，JP Morgan、富达投资等众多互联网机构与金融机构正加快虚拟数字货币的托管交易布局。

In March, according to Bloomberg and the New York Times, Facebook is developing a new encrypted currency that can be used for global payments. Meanwhile, a large number of Internet and financial institutions, such as JP Morgan and Fuda, are accelerating the hosting of virtual digital money.

　　5月，Bakkt（纽交所母公司洲际交易所开发的加密资产交易平台）首席执行官Kelly Loeffler在medium博客表示，Bakkt与美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）“密切合作”，并将在夏季推出测试比特币期货合约。

In May, Kelly Loeffler, Chief Executive Officer of Bakkt (an encrypted asset-trading platform developed by the Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New Dealer), stated in a medium blog that Bakkt “co-operated closely with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)” and would launch a trial of the Bitcoin futures contract in the summer.

　　这都表明主流机构正在完成对该市场的布局。这在火币大学校长于佳宁看来，是此轮币价上涨的核心原因之一。他表示，由于目前区块链技术已愈发成熟，以比特币为代表的去中心化数字资产的价值越来越被认同。“目前在美国，相关政策和法律也在完善，监管日趋清晰，包括大型金融机构、互联网公司在内的主流机构也开始入局。”

This suggests that mainstream institutions are completing the layout of the market. This is one of the central reasons for the rise in the price of the round, according to the Chancellor of the University of Cognac in Gyanning. He states that the value of decentralised digital assets, represented by bitcoin, is increasingly recognized, as the technology of the block chain is becoming more mature.

　　从数据来看，法律的完善在某种程度上缓解了投资者的担心。据富达投资最新调查显示，当前逾50%美国机构投资者认为数字资产可以在其投资组合中发挥作用，22%的机构投资者已经拥有某种形式的数字货币。

According to data, improvements in the law have to some extent alleviated investors’ concerns. According to recent surveys of Fuda investments, more than 50% of US institutional investors now believe that digital assets can play a role in their portfolios, and 22% of institutional investors already have some form of digital currency.

　　在OK战略副总裁徐坤看来，从近期BTC资金流流入来看，USD占据主要部分，大概率是海外资金入场，而且可以看出，这轮主力是专业的操作团队，资金体量较大，并且有交易所的配合，才能在短期内推动着行情一波接着一波。

According to Vice-President Xu Gon of OK Strategy, in the light of the recent influx of BTC funds, the USD is in the main, probably at the rate of overseas funds entering, and it can be seen that the wheel is a professional operating team, with large amounts of money, and with the cooperation of an exchange, that can facilitate a wave of behavior in the short term.

　　此外，另一个利好消息是Consensus大会（即共识大会）在5月13日至5月15日举行。这次大会是由著名区块链媒体和研究公司Coindesk举办。大会于2015年首次举办，2015年-2017年的Consensus大会后，比特币及其他加密货币的价格都会有一个上涨。因此Consensus也被认为是加密货币行业的重要风向标之一。

In addition, another good news is that the Consensus Congress (the Consensus Congress) was held from 13 May to 15 May. The Congress was organized by Coindisk, a leading block chain media and research company.

　　利好频出，比特币迎来主流机构的认可，这可能是推动比特币上涨的另一个因素。

The frequent profits and the approval of mainstream institutions by Bitcoin may be another factor driving the growth of bitcoin.

　　四次暴涨暴跌

　　回顾比特币的发展史，它曾出现四次暴涨和四次暴跌。

Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, it experienced four surges and four collapses.

　　2011年年中，比特币出现第一次暴涨，其价格在短短两个月里从0.95美元涨到了32美元。比特币第一次成为财富神话，币圈先驱李笑来、杨林科在此时入场。

In mid-2011, the price of Bitcoin rose for the first time, from $0.95 to $32 in just two months. Bitcoin became a myth of wealth for the first time, when the currency was the first to laugh, and Yang Linko came in.

　　当时，比特币与英镑兑换交易平台上线，与此同时，美国一些主流报刊都开始报道比特币了，消息一出，全球投资者趋之若鹜加入炒币行列。

At that time, Bitcoin was on the line with the British pound exchange platform, while a number of mainstream newspapers in the United States began to report on Bitcoin.

　　然而几天后，比特币便开始一路下跌，1个月后比特币已经跌破10美元。2012年2月，比特币已跌至2美元左右，最高下跌幅度达到了94%。

A few days later, however, Bitcoin began to fall all the way, and a month later, Bitcoin had fallen to $10. In February 2012, Bitcoin had fallen to around $2, with a peak decline of 94 per cent.

　　有人分析称，此次暴跌的原因是因为当时比特币的玩家并不多，交易深度不够，一次大的抛盘就可能导致币价的大幅波动。

It was analysed that the reason for the collapse was that, at the time, there were not many Bitcoin players and the depth of the transaction was insufficient, and that a large throw could lead to large fluctuations in currency prices.

　　2013年，比特币正式迎来了疯狂之旅。

In 2013, Bitcoin was officially on a crazy trip.

　　4月底，比特币的价格从年初的20美元左右一路升至260美元左右。如果把线再拉长，从2011年底到2013年5月，比特币价格增长了1000倍。

At the end of April, the price of Bitcoin rose from around $20 at the beginning of the year to around $260. If the line is extended further, the price of Bitcoin increased 1,000 times between the end of 2011 and May 2013.

　　这一轮牛市先是源于塞浦路斯债务危机所引发的传统金融机构信任危机，后有2013年下半年欧洲部分国家出台比特币友好政策刺激，借此，更多人知道了比特币，因此不少投机客涌入。

After a crisis of trust in traditional financial institutions triggered by the debt crisis in Cyprus, this bull market was stimulated by a bitcoin-friendly policy in some European countries in the second half of 2013, which allowed more people to know bitcoin and, as a result, a large influx of speculators.

　　很快，比特币开始了第二次暴跌。根据当时的一份价格波动盘面图，在比特币站上260美元后便一路下跌，短短几天就跌破50美元，最低至40多美元，跌幅高达80%。

Soon, Bitcoin began its second sharp fall. According to a map of the price fluctuations at that time, after $260 at the Bitcoin station, it fell all the way, falling by $50 in just a few days, down to over $40, up to 80 per cent.

　　有分析称，此次暴跌是因为当时比特币挖矿软件在一次更新中产生了一个小BUG，导致当时最大的交易所Mt.Gox暂停了比特币的提现业务，交易者出现了恐慌、大肆抛售。

It is alleged that the collapse was due to the fact that the Bitcoin mining software produced a small BPG in an update at the time, which led to the suspension of the Bitcoin withdrawal business by the then largest exchange, Mt. Gox, and the panic of the traders and their sale.

　　事实上，伴随着比特币价格的走高，其波动一次比一次惊险。

In fact, with the price of bitcoin going up, it fluctuates more dangerously than once.

　　在这次暴跌后的7个月，即2013年12月，比特币价格竟高达1200美元，相比之前最高价涨幅高达365%，甚至出现了比特币玩家为了交易方便，几乎睡在交易所门口，他直接持银行卡让交易所的工作人员为其刷卡支付，那个月他每天可以狂赚200万元。

In the seven months following the collapse, in December 2013, the price of Bitcoin was as high as $1,200, up from the previous peak of 365 per cent, and even the appearance of a bitcoin player sleeping almost on the front door of the exchange, who held a bank card to be paid for by the exchange staff and who could make $2 million a day.

　　随即，中国央行等五部委就发布了一则《关于防范比特币风险的通知》。通知一出，国内比特币的价格当天就从1200美元被腰斩至600美元，一天蒸发50%！

Then, the Central Bank of China and five other ministries issued a " Notice of Protection against Bitcoin Risks ". Once the notice was issued, the price of the domestic bitcoin was cut from $1,200 to $600 a day, evaporating 50% a day!

　　此后，随着“门头沟事件”导致的比特币安全问题以及监管政策原因，比特币价格始终在波动中下跌。直到2015年1月，比特币终于在150美元止跌。此次下跌也是比特币最漫长的一次下跌，最高跌幅87%。

Since then, with the issue of Bitcoin security and regulatory policy reasons resulting from the “door ditch” incident, Bitcoin prices have been falling in volatility. By January 2015, Bitcoins had finally fallen at $150.

　　不过，很快，比特币迎来了巅峰时刻。

But soon, Bitcoin reached its peak.

　　2016年，比特币先是猴子上树一般，创造了160%的惊人涨幅。2017年1月5日更是刷新历史最高价，涨至每个币1249美元。

In 2016, Bitcoin was the first to climb a monkey, creating an alarming 160 per cent increase. On January 5, 2017, it was the highest price in history, rising to $1249 per currency.

　　即便，9月4日，中国人民银行等七部委联合发布了《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》也并没有在大方向上阻止比特币上涨。12月7日，比特币一度突破1.9万美元大关，这是目前比特币历史上的最高价格。

Even if, on 4 September, seven ministries, such as the People’s Bank of China, jointly issued the Proclamation on Protection against the Risk of Money Issue Financing, it has not prevented Bitcoin from rising in any major direction. On 7 December, Bitcoin crossed the $19,000 threshold, the highest price in the history of Bitcoin.

　　有分析人士称，这一轮比特币暴涨背后是日韩资金流入，比如币市前五十的数字货币，韩元交易量基本都在三分之一以上，而且比例越高，涨得越多。

According to analysts, this round of bitcoin surge is backed by capital inflows from Japan and Korea, such as the first 50 digital currencies of the currency, where the volume of Korean won transactions is almost one third higher and the higher the proportion, the greater the increase.

　　很快，比特币开始了断崖式下跌。2018年下半年开始，比特币从最高点一度跌到3200美金，市值跌去了81%，其他竞争币跌幅基本是90%。

Soon, Bitcoin began to fall off the cliff. Beginning in the second half of 2018, Bitcoin fell from its highest point to $3,200, its market value fell by 81 per cent, and other competitive currencies fell by almost 90 per cent.

　　这一轮暴跌，BCH分叉大战是导火索，但根本原因是空气币泛滥，币圈急需回归理性。

The BCH fork battle was the trigger, but the root cause was the abundance of air currency and the urgent need to return to rationality.

　　未来迷茫，切勿追涨

　　回顾历史不难发现，暴涨暴跌几乎成了比特币的常态。币圈资深人士王文告诉燃财经（ID：rancaijing），“从长期来看，最近的波动不算啥，老韭菜基本都是这么看的”。

Looking back at history, booms and drops have become almost the norm in bitcoin. Wang Man, a senior member of the currency circle, told ID:rancaijing that, “in the long run, the recent fluctuations are not so bad, and that's the way it looks.”

　　但这依然不能阻止大规模资金入场。根据CMC数据显示，截至5月15日11点45分，过去24小时全球数字货币的总成交量为1077.63亿美元，已突破1000亿美元创历史新高。

But this still does not prevent large-scale financial access. According to CMC data, as of 15 May, at 11.45 a.m., the total volume of global digital currency transactions over the past 24 hours was $107,763 billion, reaching an all-time high of $100 billion.

　　最近7天，数字货币领域净流入资金

Net inflows in the digital currency area in the last seven days

　　即便如此，市场也并未真正回暖。BlockVC创始人徐英凯表示，BlockVC的情绪指数已显示出，最近两日市场情绪出现了不错的回升，但此时判断市场情绪是否扭转还为时尚早。“比特币和其他数字货币诞生至今也不过十年，许多分析工具与策略仍由于数据缺失、基本面迷糊而无法实行，市场情绪还需要进一步确认。”他表示，“不过数字资产整体，尤其是比特币，已经走在回暖的路上。”

Even so, the market did not really warm up. BlockVC’s founder, Seo Young-kay, said that BlockVC’s emotional index had shown a good upturn in market sentiment in the last two days, but it was too early to judge whether market sentiment had been reversed. “Bitco and other digital currencies had been born for just 10 years, many analytical tools and strategies were still out of hand due to data deficiencies and fundamentals, and market sentiment needed to be further confirmed.” He said, “But digital assets in general, and Bitcoin in particular, are on their way to warming.”

　　DFund合伙人杨林苑告诉燃财经，接下来比特币的走势会出现两种可能：：币价可能会震荡，大幅回调后小碎步上涨，年内破万；如果是阴跌，比特币价格也有可能跌到6000以下，但难度较大。

Dfund's partner, Yang Linjun, told the economy that the next step in Bitcoin would be two possibilities: currency prices could be shaken, up small steps after a large fall, and up to tens of thousands per year; and, in the case of a slump, bitcoin prices could fall below 6,000, but it would be more difficult.

　　多位受访者告诉燃财经，预计今年年底比特币会涨到1万美金。但即便如此，追涨仍需谨慎。

A number of interviewees told him that Bitcoin was expected to rise to $10,000 by the end of the year. Even so, however, it would be prudent to keep up.

　　这首先要从比特币背后的区块链技术说起。

This begins with the block chain technology behind Bitcoin.

　　从货币属性来看，最初比特币其实可以作为支付手段的，但因为币价波动太大，而且交易速度太慢，而没有发展成为支付工具。

In terms of monetary attributes, Bitcoins could actually be used as a means of payment in the first place, but they were not developed into payment instruments because of the volatility of currency prices and the slow pace of transactions.

　　具体而言，采用区块链技术的比特币网络的处理速度大约为7笔每秒，支付宝峰值达到9万笔每秒，银行同业结算的每秒买卖速度也近7万次。

Specifically, the processing speed of the Bitcoin network, which uses block chain technology, is approximately seven per second, with a peak of 90,000 per second for payments and nearly 70,000 per second for banker settlements.

　　这样的速度在实际应用中很容易造成网络拥堵严重、大量交易排队，从而使得区块链在高并发业务的场景下无法落地，甚至连简单支付都是问题——这是目前区块链技术落地的第一大难题。

Such a speed can easily result in severe network congestion and a large number of transactions queued in practical applications, thus rendering the block chain unattainable in the context of high-complex operations, or even simple payments — the first difficulty with the current block chain technology landing.

　　第二大难题是很多知名的区块链项目也仅仅停留在概念证明阶段。

The second major challenge is that many well-known block chain projects also remain only at the conceptual proof stage.

　　所谓的概念证明，其实就是企业与项目方共同合作，在某个场景上加入区块链技术，然后证明区块链技术能否取得应用效果。

The so-called conceptual proof is that the enterprise works with the project party to add block chain technology to a given scenario and then to demonstrate whether block chain technology can be applied.

　　“一家企业想用区块链，并不是采购了、装上就可以使用。区块链是一个去中心化的，一个分布式的系统，他是多方一起进行推动的。”网录科技吕旭军曾表示。没人愿意改变现有的利益格局，也就意味着技术无法推动。

"A business that wants to use a block chain, not one that is purchased and loaded, can use it. The block chain is a decentralised, distributed system that is driven by multiple actors." The Weblog technology Lu Xu Army said. No one wants to change the current pattern of interests, which means that technology cannot be promoted.

　　至于什么时候技术会有大的突破，没人知道答案。

No one knows the answer when there's a big breakthrough in technology.

　　区块链技术本身进展缓慢，但比特币就没有价值了吗？

The block chain technology itself is slow, but is Bitcoin worthless?

　　区块链专家洪蜀宁认为：比特币是数字黄金，具有价值储藏和支付工具的功能，也是加密货币市场的稳定币，这一点始终没有变，也不会变。

According to the block chain expert Hong Jun, Bitcoin is digital gold with the function of a valuable storage and payment tool, as well as a stable currency in an encrypted currency market, which remains unchanged and unchanged.

　　陈伟星表示，在他看来，比特币值钱是因为很多人有共同的愿景——让比特币成为未来数字经济时代的一个锚，成为衡量不同价值的标尺，相当于数字黄金。

Chen Weising stated that, in his view, Bitcoin is worth money because many people share a common vision — making Bitcoin an anchor in the future digital economy era and a yardstick for measuring different values, equivalent to digital gold.

　　重庆工商大学区块链经济研究中心主任刘昌用告诉燃财经，密码货币一定会取代法币成为世界货币，但道路要曲折很多。“现在看未来三十年，这个世界货币不一定是比特币，BCH更有可能，但也有可能是新的品种，还有很长的路要走，也还有很多变数。”

Liu Chang, Director of the Economic Research Centre of the Block Chain of the Chongqing University of Commerce and Industry, told him that the code currency would replace the French currency as the world currency, but that the path would be a lot of twists and turns. “Now for the next 30 years, the world currency is not necessarily bitcoin, the BCH is more likely, but it may also be a new breed, there is a long way to go, and there are many variables.”

　　目前来看，能给比特币增值的似乎只有它的“数字黄金”功能了。但问题的关键在于，比特币并不像黄金那么坚挺，在不设涨跌、投机者遍布的币圈，如今的比特币更像是炒作的工具。

At the moment, it seems that only its “digital gold” function can add value to Bitcoin. But the point is that Bitcoin is not as strong as gold, it is in circles where speculators and speculators are everywhere, and now it is more like a tool for flinging.

　　追涨比特币，仍需谨慎。

Keeping up bitcoin, still has to be careful.

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