21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道
21st Century Economic Reporter U Bin, Shanghai
在3月早些时候连创历史新高后，比特币遭遇“惊魂一日”。
In the wake of the historic rise in early March, Bitcoin was “a day of shock”.
3月19日，比特币盘中一度跌破62000美元整数关口，全天跌幅约8%，从历史高位回落逾1万美元，甚至有交易所币价一度“闪崩”跌破9000美元。上周投资者的狂热兴趣一度推动比特币价格升至近7.4万美元的历史新高，但如今一些早期买家似乎正打算获利了结、落袋为安。
On 19 March, the Bitcoin plate fell by about 8% all day, from its historical heights to over $10,000, and even an exchange currency “spill” by $9,000. Last week, investors’ enthusiasm pushed Bitcoin prices up to almost $74,000, but some early buyers now seem to be trying to profit from the knots and the sacks.
大幅震荡行情下爆仓规模飙升。CoinGlass数据显示，在截至19日晚间的24个小时内，虚拟货币市场最多时曾一度有超过24万人爆仓，总金额高达6.64亿美元（约合48亿元人民币）。
CoinGlass shows that during the 24 hours of the night of 19th, the virtual currency market had at one time a peak of over 240,000 people, with a total value of $664 million (approximately RMB 4.8 billion).
比特币为何出现大幅回调？OKX研究院高级研究员赵伟对21世纪经济报道记者表示，比特币价格走势主要受供需关系、政策法规、全球经济周期、科技发展及投资者情绪等多方面因素共同影响。但随着比特币现货ETF的通过，越来越多的传统机构投资群体参与其中，ETF资金的净流入量与净流出量正在成为影响比特币乃至整个加密市场走势的重要因素。
But, with the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, a growing group of traditional institutional investors is participating in it, and the net inflows and outflows of ETF funds are becoming an important factor affecting the movement of Bitcoin and the entire encrypted market.
3 月20日，HODL15Capital 数据显示，19日比特币现货ETF净流出3.26亿美元，其中，灰度GBTC流出4.435亿美元，贝莱德IBIT流入7440万美元，富达FBTC流入3960万美元，BITB流入250万美元，其余6支比特币现货ETF几无变动。
On 20 March, HODL15Capital data showed a net outflow of $326 million from spot ETFs in Bitcoin on 19th, of which $443.5 million was released from GBTC, $74.4 million from Belede IBIT, $39.6 million from FBTC, $2.5 million from BITB and little change from the remaining six.
此外，赵伟还表示，随着美联储议息会议临近、美国证券交易委员会（SEC）推迟对Hashdex与Ark 21Shares以太坊现货ETF申请做出决定，这些因素可能增加了市场走势的不确定性，导致一些投资者的高预期有所降温。
In addition, Zhao Wei also indicated that, as the United States Federal Reserve Conference approached, and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Hashdex and Ark 21Shares' spot ETF applications, these factors could increase uncertainty about market trends and cause some investors' high expectations to cool down.
在经历“过山车”行情后，多空因素交织下前路仍迷雾重重，未来比特币将走向何方？
After the experience of the “cruise”, where will the future of Bitcoin go?
币价一度“闪崩”跌破9000美元
The currency fell down $9,000 at a time.
在比特币价格大幅回落之际，一些平台甚至出现价格“闪崩”。
At a time when bitcoin prices were falling sharply, some platforms even experienced price “spills”.
由于币价暴跌和短时间内出现大量抛售，19日数字货币交易所BitMEX的比特币交易一度出现异常，价格闪崩跌破9000美元，最低价格约为8900美元。而与此同时，其他交易所的比特币价格仍处于6.6万美元以上。
The 19-day digital currency exchange BitMEX’s Bitcoin transaction was anomalous, with prices collapsing by $9,000, with a minimum price of approximately $8,900. At the same time, other exchanges’ Bitcoin prices remained above $66,000.
有卖家在流动性不足的时段抛售或是潜在原因。匿名加密社区人士syq在社交媒体上爆料，有人在19日晚间的短短2个小时内，以10-50个比特币的规模在BitMEX分批抛售了逾400枚比特币，导致BitMEX上的比特币交易对出现了超过30%的滑点，投资者至少亏损了400万美元。
The anonymous crypto-community syq blew up on social media, selling more than 400 bits of bitcoins in BitMEX at the size of 10-50 bitcoins in just two hours in the evening of 19 days, resulting in more than 30% of the bitcoins traded on BitMEX, with investors losing at least $4 million.
BitMEX随后表示，正在调查这一异常交易活动，少数账户存在激进卖出行为，超出预期市场范围。不过BitMEX仍强调系统运行正常，所有用户资金依然安全。
BitMEX then states that this unusual transaction is being investigated and that a few accounts are being sold aggressively beyond the expected market. However, BitMEX continues to emphasize that the system works well and that all user funds remain secure.
尽管币价闪崩跌破9000美元只是异常事件，但已经反映市场情绪出现降温。在3月早些时候比特币价格多次刷新历史纪录后，一些投资者正获利了结。
Although the fall in the currency price of $9,000 was an extraordinary event, it already reflected a cooling of market sentiment. Some investors were making a profit after the price of bitcoin had been updated several times earlier in March.
比特币现货ETF产品18日出现了自1月获批成立以来最大规模的资金净流出，其中规模最大的灰度ETF产品GBTC流出规模尤其惊人。根据BitMEX Research的数据，18日GBTC创下了6.425亿美元的单日资金净流出纪录，10日又流出了逾4亿美元。
Bitcoin's spot ETF products showed the largest net outflow of funds since their launch in January, with the largest-scale ETF products, GBTC, in particular on an alarming scale. According to BitMEX Research, GBTC recorded $642.5 million in single-day net outflows on 18 and more than $400 million on 10 days.
对此，市场分析公司VettaFi研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，作为当前规模最大、价格最高的比特币ETF产品，GBTC出现大量获利了结和赎回是可以理解的。资金不会日复一日地涌入这些ETF，人们在价格走高后获利了结是合理的。
In response, Todd Rosenbluth, the research director of the market analysis firm VettaFi, said that, as the largest and highest-priced bitcoin ETF product at present, it was understandable that the GBTC had made substantial profits and redeemed them. The funds would not flow into these ETFs day after day, and it would be reasonable for people to profit from higher prices.
赵伟对记者分析称，短期来看，比特币现货ETF的资金流出情况会对比特币以及加密市场的价格走势产生较大影响。长期来看，比特币以及加密货币被大规模采用还需要科技创新驱动，使其能够与更多现实生活中的场景产生链接，可能会释放更大的活力。
According to Zhao Wei’s analysis of journalists, in the short term, the financial outflows of the spot ETF in Bitcoin will have a greater impact on the prices of the currency and the cryptomarket. In the long run, the large-scale introduction of bitcoin and cryptophone money will also require science, technology, and innovation to enable it to link to more real-life scenes, which could unleash more dynamism.
机构需求能否支撑比特币？
Can institutional needs sustain Bitcoin?
近期加密货币市场利空和利多因素交织，资金流入比特币现货ETF的势头放缓，GBTC甚至出现流出，但机构对比特币的接受度有所提升，或将给比特币价格带来一定支撑。
The recent combination of encoded currency market benefits and altruistic factors, the slowdown in capital inflows to the spot ETF in Bitcoin, and even the outflow of GBTC have increased the acceptance of the institution bitcoin or will provide some support for bitcoin prices.
在美国批准贝莱德、富达、景顺等机构的比特币现货ETF后，未来全球最大的养老基金可能入局。3月19日，日本政府养老投资基金（GPIF）宣布，将探索将其部分投资组合多元化到比特币领域的可能性。目前GPIF管理着超过1.5万亿美元的资产。作为其多元化努力的一部分，GPIF将征集有关非流动性替代资产的信息，例如比特币、黄金、森林和农田。
On March 19, the Japanese Government’s Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) announced that it would explore the possibility of diversifying some of its portfolio into the area of Bitcoin. The GPF now manages more than $1.5 trillion in assets. As part of its diversification efforts, the GPF will gather information on non-liquid alternative assets, such as Bitcoin, gold, forests, and agricultural land.
此外，英国金融行为监管局（FCA）3月11日表示，将允许认可的投资交易所推出加密货币支持的交易所交易票据（ETN）。此类产品只面向专业投资者，如投资公司和获准在金融市场运营的信贷机构，暂时不会允许散户投资者购买相关产品。伦敦证券交易所则在另一份声明中表示，将从今年第二季度开始接受比特币和以太坊ETN的上市申请。
In addition, the British Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FCA) indicated on March 11 that it would allow an accredited investment exchange to launch an encrypted currency-backed exchange transaction note (ETN). Such products are intended only for professional investors, such as investment companies and credit institutions licensed to operate in financial markets, and will not, for the time being, allow bulk investors to purchase related products.
上海财经大学金融学院副院长曹啸对21世纪经济报道记者表示，比特币正在逐渐成为机构投资者主导的市场，机构投资者的进入意味着会有更多类型的相关金融产品在ETF之后陆续出现，比特币的价格波动会趋于平缓，风险控制的成本会进一步降低，从而使得比特币市场趋于成熟。
According to Cao Cao, Vice-President of the Financial Institute of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, economic reporting for the twenty-first century, Bitcoin is becoming a market dominated by institutional investors, and the entry of institutional investors means that more types of related financial products will emerge after the ETF, that price fluctuations in Bitcoin will level off, and that the costs of risk control will be further reduced, leading to the maturity of the Bitcoin market.
整体而言，比特币的资产属性已经在一定程度上得到认可，未来或有更多机构投资者参与比特币交易，但能在多大程度上进入投资组合仍不确定。赵伟对记者表示，对于机构投资者来讲，资金配置会考虑多方面的因素，比如全球货币政策以及经济周期等，无法预判未来的投资动作。
Overall, Bitcoin’s asset attributes have been recognized to some extent, and future or more institutional investors are involved in Bitcoin transactions, but the extent to which they can enter the portfolio remains uncertain. Zhao Wei said to journalists that, for institutional investors, the allocation of funds takes into account a number of factors, such as global monetary policy and the economic cycle, that do not prejudge future investment movements.
在一些合理的配置需求之外，另一些拥抱比特币行为的背后更多的是无奈或投机。在本国货币难以为继的背景下，少数不走寻常路的国家已经接受比特币。中美洲国家萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克勒（Nayib Bukele）3月14日表示，萨尔瓦多将把相当大的一部分比特币资产转移到一个离线设备上。2021年，萨尔瓦多成为世界上第一个将比特币作为法定货币的国家，作为首个“吃螃蟹”的国家，萨尔瓦多一度招致铺天盖地的质疑和担忧。
On 14 March, the Central American President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, said that El Salvador would transfer a significant portion of its assets to an offline facility. In 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to use Bitcoin as a legal currency and the first to “eat crabs” to be questioned and worried.
知名比特币多头MicroStrategy也在继续加仓。SEC文件显示，MicroStrategy在3月11日至3月18日期间又以6.23亿美元的价格购买了9245枚比特币，持有总量达到214246枚，占迄今为止全球已开采的约1970万枚比特币的比例超过1%。
Also known as Bitcoin’s MicroStrategy, which, according to SEC documents, purchased an additional 9245 bitcoins at a price of $623 million between 11 March and 18 March, holding a total of 214,246 bitcoins, representing more than 1 per cent of the approximately 1.7 million bitcoins that have been mined globally to date.
这种和比特币高度绑定的行为显然也存在巨大风险。MicroStrategy仅在2月就实现了股价翻番，3月一度创下每股1815美元的历史高位。然而好景不长，随着比特币价格高位跳水，3月18日MicroStrategy下跌16%，是当日比特币跌幅的10倍多。3月19日，MicroStrategy股价再度下跌5.7%。MicroStrategy本周前两天的跌幅达到20%，为2022年以来最大的两日跌幅。
MicroStrategy doubled its share price in February alone, with a record high of $1815 per share in March. But the good news is not too long, with Bitcoin prices high, MicroStrategy fell by 16% on 18 March, more than 10 times the same time. On 19 March, MicroStrategy’s share price fell again by 5.7%, with MicroStrategy falling by 20% in the two days before this week, the largest two days since 2022.
“过山车”后路在何方？
Where's the back of the mountain truck?
比特币价格创下新高后又大幅回调，机构对接下来的走势充满了巨大的分歧。
After a new high of Bitcoin prices and a substantial rebound, the agency was rife with a wide divergence of views on the next move.
4月比特币“减半”备受关注，届时是否会出现“买预期卖事实”行情？摩根大通警告称，一旦乐观情绪消退，4月份减半事件后，比特币价格可能跌至4.2万美元。
In April, “50 per cent” of Bitcoin received much attention, and would there be a “buy-as-you-go” deal? Morgan Chase warned that, once optimism subsided, the price of Bitcoin could fall to $42,000 after the April halving event.
乐观者则持不同看法，美国知名投资管理和研究公司伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani预计，2024年比特币市场将流入100亿美元，2025年再流入600亿美元。比特币价格将在4月“减半”后爆发，预计到明年年中能涨至15万美元。
The optimists disagree, with Gautam Chugani, a leading American investment management and research firm, predicting that the Bitcoin market will flow into $10 billion in 2024 and another $60 billion in 2025. Bitcoin prices are expected to break out after “50 by half” in April, and are expected to rise to $150,000 by the middle of next year.
在瑞士私人银行瑞士宝盛分析师Manuel Villegas看来，过去六个月大约80%的比特币供应没有转手，交易所可供出售的比特币库存有限，再加上ETF需求，这“可能会加剧供应紧张”。
According to Manuel Villegas, a Swiss treasurer analyst at a private bank in Switzerland, about 80 per cent of the Bitcoins supply has not been transferred over the past six months, limited stock of bitcoins available for sale on the exchange, together with ETF demand, “may increase supply tensions”.
美联储货币政策也将影响比特币未来走势。短期内美联储偏鹰派态度可能打压投资者风险偏好。过去几个月，由于投资者押注美联储将放松货币政策，推动了全球股市、债市和加密货币的强劲上涨。然而，随着越来越多的数据显示美国通胀压力抬头，美联储降息预期降温，美债收益率和美元上涨或对比特币构成拖累。
Over the past few months, a strong rise in global stock markets, debt markets, and encrypted currencies has been driven by investors’ bets on the Fed to relax monetary policy. However, as more and more data show rising inflationary pressure in the US, the Fed is expected to cool down, and the rate of return on US debt and the United States dollar have been held back, or against the currency.
摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，鉴于比特币价格整体强势，再加上美国股市一度创下历史新高，可能使利率在更长时间内保持高位，因为过早降息可能会进一步推高资产价格，或导致通胀再次上升。
According to Morgan Chase strategist Marko Kolanovic, given the overall strength of Bitcoin prices, combined with a once-high record in the United States stock market, interest rates may remain high for a longer period of time, as premature interest cuts may further push asset prices or lead to renewed inflation.
从中长期看，美联储降息和放缓缩表步伐只是时间问题，欧洲央行、英国央行也大概率今年降息。当利率下降时，投资者可能会寻求更高风险的资产以获得更高回报，美元的贬值可能会使以美元计价的比特币变得更有吸引力。
In the medium-to-long term, it is only a matter of time before the Fed reduces its interest rates and slows down its contractions, and the ECB and the British Central Bank are likely to cut interest rates this year. When interest rates fall, investors may seek higher-risk assets for higher returns, and the dollar’s depreciation may make bitcoins denominated in dollars more attractive.
此外，未来监管的态度也将决定市场冷热程度。今年年初SEC批准了现货比特币ETF，随后交易所便开始申请上市比特币基金的期权，引入比特币ETF看涨和看跌期权可对冲加密货币固有的波动性，为投资者提供更多选择。
In addition, the attitude of future regulation will determine the degree of coolness in the market. Early this year, the SEC approved the spot bitcoin ETF, and the exchange began to apply for options for listing the Bitcoin Fund, introducing a bitcoin ETF up and down in order to provide investors with more options for the inherent volatility of hedged encrypted currencies.
接下来比特币ETF期权能否获批备受关注，或将影响市场情绪。SEC在3月早些时候宣布，将其对允许交易所上市现货比特币ETF期权的审议推迟至4月底。为了充分考虑提出的规则变更，委员会认为有必要延长审议时间。
Later in March, the SEC announced that it would postpone its consideration of the option to allow the exchange to be listed on the spot. In order to take full account of the proposed changes in the rules, the Commission considered it necessary to extend its consideration.
在比特币3月早些时候飙升至历史新高之际，SEC主席根斯勒（Gary Gensler）再度发出警告：整个加密货币领域仍充斥着滥用和欺诈行为，投资者应该意识到，比特币是一种“高度投机、不稳定的资产”。
At the height of Bitcoin's history earlier in March, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler again warned that the entire area of cryptographic currency was still full of abuse and fraud, and investors should realize that Bitcoin was a “highly speculative and unstable asset”.
在多空因素交织难辨之际，比特币前路仍不明朗，投资者仍需保持谨慎。从监管机构的喊话中也不难发现，比特币距离完全被“接纳”可能仍有很长的路要走，前方荆棘密布。
At a time when many factors are intertwined, the Bitcoin front is still unclear, and investors still need to remain cautious. It is not difficult to see from the regulatory voice that bitcoin may still have a long way to go from its full “acceptance” to its full “acceptance.”
（作者：吴斌 编辑：李莹亮）
(author: U Bin, editor: Lee Xiaoqing)
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