智通财经APP注意到，自4月触及64000美元高点并腰斩之后，比特币经历了3个多月的疲软期，随后于7月下旬逐渐捡回了上涨的势头，连续突破47000美元与48000美元的技术关口，目前离50000美元已近在咫尺。
AFP noted that after more than three months of weakness after reaching $64,000 in April and beheading, Bitcoin gradually recovered the upward momentum in late July, breaking the technology gap of $47,000 and $48,000, which is now close to $50,000.
截至发稿，比特币价格已突破50000美元关口，为自5月15日以来的最高点，连续第四日处于其200日移动均线上方。
By the time of issuance, the price of Bitcoin had crossed the $50,000 mark, the highest since 15 May, and for the fourth consecutive day it was above its 200-day moving average.
比特币价格持续回升
比特币的反弹正在克服罕见的技术障碍汇合点，包括4月约47000美元的低点以及在47000美元至 48000美元之间的斐波那契均线和一目平衡表。
Bitcoin's rebound is overcoming rare technical barriers, including the April low of approximately $47,000 and the Fibonacci average and one-eye balance between $47,000 and $48,000.
除50000美元这个整数关口外，从技术面上说，斐波那契回撤位(51000美元)也是比特币的一个潜在关口。
In addition to $50,000, the technical withdrawal of Fibonacci ($51,000) is also a potential closure for Bitcoin.
CEX.IO加密货币交易平台执行董事KonstantinAnissimov说：“目前，比特币的下一个主要阻力是在50000美元区域。如果有更多买家涌入，将价格推高到50000美元以上，这可能会使比特币迎来一波交易狂潮，将价格引向55000美元的中期目标”。
The Executive Director of the CEX.IO Encrypted Money Trading Platform, Konstantin Anissimov, said: “At present, Bitcoin’s next major resistance is in the $50,000 area. If more buyers come in, push prices up to over $50,000, this could set Bitcoin against a wave of trading boom, leading the price to a medium-term target of $55,000”.
根据CoinGecko的数据，截至上周日，加密货币总市值大约为2.17万亿美元。据报道，过去12个月中，全球加密货币的应用规模已上涨了881%。
According to CoinGecko, the total market value of encrypted money as of last week was approximately $2.17 trillion, and the size of the global application of encrypted currency has reportedly increased by 881 per cent over the past 12 months.
CoinShares投资策略师James Butterfill认为，尽管比特币近期出现反弹，但截至8月13日的一周，数字资产投资产品连续第六周出现流出，是2018年1月以来持续时间最长的流出。
According to James Butterhill, CoinShares investment strategist, the sixth consecutive exit of digital asset investment products in the week of 13 August was the longest since January 2018, despite a recent rebound in Bitcoin.
Butterfill指出，目前每周的投资数字货币产品的资金为31亿美元，而5月份为70亿美元。
Butterfill indicated that the current weekly investment in digital currency products was $3.1 billion, compared to $7 billion in May.
除了典型的季节性影响外，另一个影响数字资产流动的风险是监管干预，比如美国基础设施法案中的条款，该条款要求数字资产持有者向美国国税局报告交易收益。
In addition to the typical seasonal effects, another risk affecting the movement of digital assets is regulatory intervention, such as the provision in the United States Infrastructure Act requiring digital asset holders to report transaction gains to the United States IRS.
数据显示，在截至8月13日的一周，对冲基金继续削减比特币的净空头头寸，降至11周以来的低点。净空头仍处于高位，但较6月中旬的峰值有所下降。
The data show that during the week up to 13 August, hedge funds continued to reduce their net head position in bitcoin to a low point since 11 weeks. The net head opening remained high, but declined from its peak in mid-June.
货币流通量成比特币价格趋势指标？
值得注意的是，美元和比特币的价格在某种程度上是联系在一起的，历史数据似乎表明，在美国经济中流通的货币是比特币价格走向的指标。
其中美国M2货币供应量(公众持有的现金和定期存款的广泛衡量标准)和比特币之间的关系更为清晰。
自上周五比特币从7月底的3万美元恢复到4.75万美元以来，比特币一直在偏离货币供应放缓的趋势。
尽管如此，随着M2增长继续减弱，历史趋势表明，比特币的价格在未来存在大量的下跌风险。
美国M2货币供应量同比增长率在2月中旬达到27.2%的峰值，就在比特币在4月中旬达到6.5万美元的价格峰值前两个月。
而今年7月美国M2增长率为11.82%。在疫情之前，M2年化增长率仅为6%-7%。
不过，由于美元被困在金融资产中，货币流通速度仍接近历史低点。由于美元没有在整个经济中流通，金融资产对生产率增长没有贡献。
However, because the dollar is trapped in financial assets, the rate of currency circulation is still close to historical lows. Since the dollar does not circulate throughout the economy, financial assets do not contribute to productivity growth.
随着各国央行货币政策的转向，大规模量化宽松有助于货币供应的增加，进而引发GDP产出的收益递减，但也会引发整个金融市场的资产价格通胀。作为对财政和货币政策的回应，货币流通速度已跌至二战以来的最低水平。
As central banks move toward monetary policy, large-scale quantitative easing helps to increase the supply of money, thereby triggering a reduction in the return on GDP output, but it also triggers asset-price inflation across financial markets. In response to fiscal and monetary policy, currency flows have fallen to their lowest levels since World War II.
比特币显然是加密货币市场的核心，其总市值约2万亿美元。由于这部分资产可以转换成法定货币（美元），比特币可能像M2货币供应一样代表一个广义货币，但规模较小。
Bitcoin is clearly at the heart of the crypto-currency market, with a total market value of about $2 trillion. Since this part of the asset can be converted into a legal currency (United States dollar), Bitcoin may represent a broader currency, but on a smaller scale, like the M2 money supply.
截至6月，美国M2货币存量为20.4万亿美元。2020年2月至5月M2增速远高于6月至当前增速。比特币也在同期上涨。
As of June, the United States M2 currency stock stood at $20.4 trillion. M2 growth from February to May 2020 was much higher than from June to the current rate. Bitcoin also rose during the same period.
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