2021年新年伊始，比特币迎来一轮令人瞠目结舌的上涨，吸引了全球资本市场的目光。元旦以来，比特币价格先后站上34000美元和40000美元的高点，推动加密货币市场的总市值突破1万亿美元。海外投资机构对比特币的观点也分化强烈，有观点认为，美元疲软、通胀加剧风险、机构入局等因素推高了价格。但也有观点提醒，这一轮快速上涨堆积了泡沫，投机风险巨大。
At the start of the 2021 New Year, Bitcoin’s spectacular rise attracted the eyes of global capital markets. Since New Year’s Day, the price of Bitcoin has stood at highs of $34,000 and $40,000, pushing the total market value of the crypto-currency market out of $1 trillion.
大幅波动快速上行
Volatile Rapid Up
纵观比特币2020年的表现，除了2月下旬的那次断崖式暴跌，它经历了5轮快速上涨，特别是从去年3月12日的3850美元低点触底反弹以来，行情可谓一路高歌猛进。
Throughout Bitcoin's performance in 2020, with the exception of that cliff crash in late February, it has experienced five rounds of rapid rise, particularly since the $3850 low-point touchback of 12 March last year, which has been moving forward with an all-time high.
“币桌”网站数据显示，2020年比特币投资回报是标普500指数和黄金的数倍。早在2020年第一周，投资者猜测地缘政治动荡加剧可能刺激加密货币需求，关于比特币可能成为类似黄金的避险资产的预期逐步走强，比特币价格即跳涨至7300美元。从2020年10月开始，相较其他资产的表现平平尤其是美元持续走软，比特币的“数字黄金”叙事在机构投资者中日益强化，支撑其接连创下新高。这验证了摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙2017年的预测——“即便作为黄金替代货币在较长时期内受到适度排挤，比特币的价格仍会上涨”。
As early as the first week of 2020, investors speculated that increased geopolitical instability might stimulate the demand for encrypted currency, and that the expectation that bitcoin could become a gold-like risk-free asset would gradually rise to US$ 7,300. Starting in October 2020, the “digital gold” narrative of Bitcoin continued to be softer than that of other assets, especially the US dollar.
如今，摩根大通、摩根士丹利、都铎投资、黑石等传统金融“大鳄”已开始扎堆入局。跨国支付公司PayPal则宣布，将允许其3.46亿客户持有比特币和其他加密货币，并使用数字资产在其网络上的2600万商家购物。外汇和加密货币分析公司“量子经济学”2020年10月底的一份报告认为，PayPal此举“很可能会成为比特币进入主流时刻的分水岭”。
Today, traditional financial “gatories,” such as Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Toto Investments, Blackstone, etc., are starting to come together. The multinational payer PayPal has announced that it will allow its 346 million customers to hold bitcoins and other encrypted currencies, and to use digital assets to shop for 26 million businesses on its network.
疯涨之下风险凸显
一些海外投资机构认为，这一轮上涨既有现实需求的强力推动，又有历史演进的清晰逻辑。
According to some overseas investment agencies, this round of rise has been driven both by a strong demand base and by a clear logic of historical evolution.
一方面，新冠肺炎疫情全球肆虐拉高了投资者避险需求。2020年的全球经济因疫情冲击出现了二战以来的最大跌幅，国际金融风险随之堆积至历史新高。
On the one hand, the global epidemic of neo-crowd pneumonia has raised the need for investors to avoid risk. The global economy in 2020 experienced the largest decline since World War II as a result of the epidemic, with international financial risks shrunk to an all-time high.
追溯比特币诞生的本源，就可以发现其与抗通胀有天然的联系。比特币是由据称为日裔美国人的中本聪在2008年11月1日提出，2009年1月3日诞生的一种虚拟加密数字货币，其最初就设定了只能通过在网上“挖矿”产生、总数为2100万枚的规则。这种去中心化的数字货币从设计伊始，就是为了对抗由于政府超发法定货币所引发的通货膨胀。供应上限以及每隔4年发行量减半的规律，使其具有一定的抗通胀能力，与零利率甚至负利率条件下也要超发货币、刺激复苏的各国央行形成反差。
This decentralized digital currency was designed from the very beginning to counter inflation caused by the government’s excess statutory currency. The supply ceiling and the rule of halving distribution every four years, giving it a certain anti-inflation capacity, with zero or even negative interest rates, to exceed the central banks of the countries that are stimulating recovery.
疫情冲击下，出于对冲通胀风险需求，银行、保险公司、理财机构开始成规模地拥抱包括比特币在内的加密货币市场。比特币的市值能快速达到现今这一高度，主要还是因为机构资金取代全球散户入场开跑。
Under the shock of the epidemic, banks, insurance companies, and financial institutions began to embrace encoded currency markets, including bitcoin, on a scale of scale, in response to the need to hedge the risk of inflation. Bitcoin’s market value reached today’s level quickly, mainly because institutional funds replaced the global diaspora.
英国鲁佛投资公司在确认购买价值超过7.45亿美元的比特币后发布报告称，“当前的宏观经济环境为这一融合了技术和黄金优势的资产设置了完美的环境。负利率、极端的货币政策、膨胀的公共债务、对政府的不满都为投资比特币提供了强大的助力”。
After confirming the purchase of more than $745 million in bitcoins, Rufer Investment reported that “the current macroeconomic environment provides a perfect environment for this asset, which combines technology and gold advantages. Negative interest rates, extreme monetary policy, inflated public debt, and dissatisfaction with the government all provide a powerful boost to the investment of bitcoins.”
专注加密资产的阿尔卡基金首席投资官杰夫·多曼认为，“在一个较长的时期内，任何其他货币的贬值，都会强化比特币的购买力”。
According to Jeff Doman, the chief investment officer of the Alka Foundation, who focused on encrypted assets, “the devaluation of any other currency will enhance the purchasing power of Bitcoin over a longer period of time”.
此外，美元信用广受质疑强化了资产多元布局的意愿。新冠肺炎疫情来袭之前，凭借美元全球储备货币地位和美联储长期超低利率政策，美国政府和美资公司发行了天量债务让全世界分摊其成本。截至2020年9月30日，美国政府的预算赤字飙升至创纪录的3.1万亿美元。许多观察家警告称，这种债务不可持续——一旦危机来临，类似量化宽松等“印钞行动”将再次登场，而美元的货币信用势必随之下降甚至被透支。但2020年美联储历史上最大规模的“印钞行动”至今未停下脚步，目前每月国债和政府支持抵押贷款债券的购买量仍高达1200亿美元。这加剧了全球投资者对美元信用的担忧，美元和美元资产也随之跌至近年来低位。
As of 30 September 2020, the US government’s budget deficit has soared to a record $3.1 trillion. Many observers have warned that such debt is unsustainable – and that QE-like “treasuries” will rise again once the crisis strikes, and that the dollar’s monetary credit will decline or even be overridden.
不过，比特币的风险不容忽视。有加密货币研究机构警告说，当前活跃的比特币账户已经接近2017年末的历史最高水平，这可能将是部分投资者抛售的信号。
Bitcoin’s risk, however, cannot be ignored. There are encoded money research institutions warning that the current active bitcoin account is close to its highest level in history at the end of 2017, and this may be a sign that some investors will sell it.
而历史上，比特币也多次上演大涨大跌行情。比如2017年12月，比特币价格一度刷新历史纪录，达到20089美元高位，但一个月后就下跌超过50%。
In December 2017, for example, the price of Bitcoin, which was once a new historical record, reached a high of 20089 dollars, but fell by more than 50 per cent a month later.
分析人士警告，投资者应警惕比特币市场的投机性风险。这一方面是因为比特币市场规模仍然偏小，易于操纵；另一方面是因为全球迄今尚未建立健全的比特币市场监管机制。
Analysts warn that investors should be wary of speculative risks in the Bitcoin market. This is because the Bitcoin market is still small and easy to manipulate, and because the global regulatory mechanism for the Bitcoin market has not yet been well established.
可以预见，2021年，比特币市场仍将被自动化做市商、巨幅波动、超高收益率、反法币和中央银行体制等标签萦绕。防范滥炒比特币进而推高系统性风险，应当成为全球金融监管者和市场参与者的共同责任。
In 2021, it can be expected that the Bitcoin market will continue to be surrounded by automatic labels such as market merchants, mega-volatility, super-high yields, anti-legal coins, and central-bank systems. Protection against the inflaming of bitcoins, which in turn push up systemic risks, should become a shared responsibility of global financial regulators and market participants.
（原题为《比特币还能狂奔多久》）
"How long can Bitcoin run?"
编辑：秦秦
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