原标题：太刺激！比特币行情5天内多次反转 期货屡屡爆仓！减半行情生变？已有平台9亿无法兑付 来源：券商中国
数字货币市场五天内迅速上演了牛转熊再转牛的转换，行情跌宕让人眼花缭乱。
In five days, the digital money market was rapidly turning and turning, and it was confusing to see how things were going down.
上周六晚间，短暂快速地站上10000美元后，带着市场的期许和猜测，比特币价格调头向下。以gate.io价格为例，2月13日，比特币价格达到近期最高点10498美元后开始回落，2月17日22：00左右下探至9461美元后开始反弹，5日内最大跌幅近10%。2月19日5：00，已回弹至10230美元。
Last Saturday night, after a short and fast stop of $10,000, with market promises and guesses, Bitcoin prices turned downward. For example, on 13 February, the price of Gate.io began to fall when it reached its recent peak of $10498, and on 17 February, when it arrived at $9461 at around 22:00, it rebounded, with a maximum decline of almost 10 per cent in five days. On 19 February, at 5 p.m., the price of Bitcoin returned to $10230.
随着比特币价格的回落，近期涨势良好的主流币及平台币也出现回落。曾经红极一时的交易平台Fcoin无法兑付规模介于7000-13000BTC（价值约6800—1.26亿美元，折合人民币约8.8亿元）再次将交易平台风险暴露。
With the fall in bitcoin prices, there has been a fall in the recent boom in mainstream and platform currencies. The trading platform Fcoin, once in the red, was unable to pay at a scale of between 7,000 and 13,000 BTCs (with a value of about $68-126 million, or about 880 million renminbi) again exposed the trading platform’s risks.
震荡行情下，数字货币合约交易的风险遽然大增。一位近期因杠杆交易损失近30%的投资者表示，交易中宁愿踏空也不要试图去追高，而且永远没有真正的踏空，只有真正的亏损。
In the event of shock, the risk of a digital-currency contract transaction has increased dramatically. An investor who recently lost nearly 30 per cent of his leverage trade said that it would be better to vacate the deal rather than try to catch it up, and that there would never be a real emptiness, but only a real loss.
对于减半行情的预期，或许也可以有更多的视角。
There may also be more perspectives on the expectations of halving the number of cases.
BTC未站稳1万美元，五日内最大跌幅近10%
BTC is not standing at $10,000, with the largest drop of nearly 10% in five days.
虽然有“减半”行情加持，但比特币震荡趋势正在加剧。以gate.io价格为例，2月13日，比特币价格达到近期最高点10498美元后开始回落，2月17日22：00左右下探至9461美元后开始反弹，5日内最大跌幅近10%，2月19日5：00，已回弹至10230美元。
Despite the “50-per-cent” trend, the trend is increasing in Bitcoin. In the case of Gate.io prices, for example, on 13 February, the price of Bitcoin began to fall when it reached its recent peak of $10498 and, on 17 February, when it was detected at about $9461, rebounded, with the largest drop of nearly 10 per cent in five days, and on 19 February, at 5 p.m., it returned to $10230.
OKEx数据显示，BTC现货数据方面，杠杆多空比为19.59，币币主动买入量276.34 BTC，币币主动卖出量179.12 BTC，USDT场外溢价率为101.42%。
The OKEx data show that for BTC spot data, the leverage ratio is 19.59, the currency buys 276.34 BTC, the currency sells 179.12 BTC and the USDT off-site premium is 101.42 per cent.
对于当前市场的震荡，OKEx高级分析师对券商中国记者表示，在减半行情的预期和炒作之下，市场的主要趋势仍然是上升趋势，但在10000美元关口会出现剧烈震荡。因为10000美元对于市场而言是一个重要心理关口，市场空头和多空会在这价格附近展开激烈博弈，从目前看市场表现和预期的一致。
For the current market shock, the top analysts of OKEx told Chinese journalists that the main trend in the market was still upwards, with half-percent expectations and speculation, but that there was a strong shock at the $10,000 gate. Because $10,000 was an important psychological juncture for the market, the market and the amount of space would be playing in the vicinity of the price, and market performance and expectations would now be consistent.
“目前的下跌属于次级趋势，在该阶段比特币价格大约会回调上一轮上涨的1/3-2/3左右。目前本轮下跌从10500跌至当前的9，700美元，尚属于正常的回调区间。不过如果比特币价格继续下跌，突破9，000美元的位置，我们就需要考虑市场的主要趋势是否发生了逆转。”该分析师说。
“The current decline is a secondary trend, and bitcoin prices will return at that stage to about one third-2/3 of the increase in the previous round. The current decline in this round, from 10,500 to the current $9,700, is still in the normal swing zone. But if Bitcoin prices continue to fall, breaking the $9,000 mark, we need to consider whether the main market trend has been reversed.” The analyst says.
虽然当前市场较为震荡，但从投资者反应来看，参与情绪仍较为高涨，一些分析甚至明确表示每一次回调都是“上车”良机。这种情绪背后最重要的支撑就是即将到来的比特币产量减半。实际上，除了比特币即将在今年5月份迎来第三次减产外，主流币ETC、BCH、DASH等也将于3月份开始第一次减半。产量减半，带来该币种“通缩”预期。
In spite of the current market shocks, the sense of participation remains high, with some analyses indicating that every call is a good opportunity to “get in the car.” The most important underpinning of this sentiment is the imminent halving of bitcoin production.
减半预期是否合理？
Is it reasonable to expect to halve?
那在数字货币这一瞬息万变的市场中，这种良好的预期能否实现呢？
Will this good expectation be met in a rapidly changing market, a digital currency?
上述OKEx分析师表示，从理性预期角度来看，对“减产行情”的乐观是正常的，因为比特币减半从理论角度看确实能刺激价格上涨；从历史经验看，前两次减半也带来了比特币价格的上涨；因此综合各种信息，市场对“减半行情”普遍持乐观态度。
According to the above-mentioned OKEx analyst, optimism about “cut-off” is normal from a rational expectation point of view, as halving bitcoin does theoretically stimulate price increases; the first two halves also bring about bitcoin price increases from historical experience; thus, when information is combined, the market is generally optimistic about “half-per-cent business”.
“然而数字货币市场上，我们往往能观察到许多“非理性”行为，那么在本次“减半行情”下，会不会出现非理性行为？确实存在这种可能，因为市场一旦达成了上涨的预期，众人出于动物本能就会过度投机，导致比特币价格出现泡沫，那么未来的暴跌将不可避免。比特币在历史上仅有两次突破10000美元大关，部分用户认为这个价格已经是高点，市场已经出现泡沫，这部分人自然会看空。”该分析师称。
“However, we can often observe many “irrational” behaviors in the digital money market, so will there be irrational behaviors in this “50-percent” scenario? There is a real possibility, because once the market has reached expectations of rising instincts, people are overspeculating for animal instincts, leading to bubbles in bitcoin prices, and a sharp fall in the future is inevitable. Bitcoin has only broken the $10,000 mark twice in history, and some users believe that the price is already high, that the market has bubbles, and that it will naturally be empty.” According to the analyst.
此前两次BTC产量减半后，价格“一飞冲天”，这样的过往经验使得很多人对此次减半行情充满美好想象。但需要注意的是，与前两次减半相比，当前无论是BTC自身价格还是数字货币整体市场生态都已经发生了巨大变化，在对“减半行情”有所期待的同时，这些因素都需要被纳入考虑。
After reducing BTC production by half on two previous occasions, prices have been “one-by-one, one-by-one,” a lesson that has led many people to imagine the idea of halving it. But it is important to note that the BTC’s own prices and the overall market ecology of the digital money market have now changed dramatically, and these factors need to be taken into account while looking forward to the “half-by-half” scenario.
区块链基金ParallelVC副总裁李硕淼对券商中国记者表示，很多人认为之前BTC减半后出现5—10倍暴涨是因为供求更加紧张的原因，但他认为2016年减半后供需就不是主要原因了，2016年7月10日在第三次减半的时候已经有1575万枚产出，总量已经较大，单纯从供需的层面无法解释10倍涨幅。而且那段时间有很多投机和投资资金进入，是大量资本涌入推动了BTC的上涨。
The Vice-President of ParallelVC of the block chain fund, Lee Seok-yung, told Chinese journalists that many believed that the 5-10-fold surge in BTC’s previous halving was due to increased demand and supply, but he did not believe that supply and demand would be the main reason for reducing BTC by half in 2016. By the third halving, on 10 July 2016, there had been 157.5 million output, a large volume that could not be explained by the supply and demand side alone.
李硕淼认为下次减半后不会出现之前的“10倍行情”。一方面，从市值来讲，上次BTC减半后高点接近2w美元，如果按照10倍来算btc价格要到20w美元。那总市值就将达到3万5千亿美元，短时间内如此体量资金流入的可能性相对较小。另一方面，从2017年开始，富达等一些主流金融机构开始关注和配置比特币。专业机构的加入以及BTC市值的增加其实在一定程度上可以平抑波动。此外，2017年之前，BTC交易以现货为主，2018年开始期货交易的体量明显上升，甚至很多时候是期货价格带动现货价格的，在这种情况下，单边大行情会减少至少幅度会变小。
On the one hand, the last time BTC was halved, the BTC was close to $2w, if the price of btc was set to $20w. The total market value would amount to $35,000 billion in a short period of time, with a relatively small risk of such inflow. On the other hand, starting in 2017, some mainstream financial institutions, such as Fuda, began to focus on and configure bitcoins.
虽然态度相对保守，“但减半行情，我肯定是看好的，而且认为会使比特币的价格达到一个可观的水平。”李硕淼认为，一是此次减半发生时比特币存量已达1837万枚，仅剩263万枚。而且这次减半会让比特币的通胀率降至2%以下，低于美联储2%的目标通胀率，这是很重要的一点。而且随着传统金融机构对BTC的研究及认可，在资产包里面配置BTC将成为常态，未来BTC价格的波动会更健康更市场化。
Although the attitude is relatively conservative, “I am sure that halving the price of Bitcoin will be good enough, and I think it will bring the price of Bitcoin to a significant level.” Lee Suh-yung argued that the first half of the price of Bitcoin had reached 1,837,000 at the time of the year, leaving only 2.63 million.
四大合约市场爆仓高达3.97亿美元
The four major contracts market went up to $397 million.
2017年底，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）推出了比特币期货。去年6月，COBE关闭了该交易，并表示正在评估其继续为交易提供数字资产衍生品的计划。随着BTC期货合约市场体量的增大，合约市场对现货市场价格的影响也越来越大。
By the end of 2017, the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE) launched Bitcoin futures. Last June, COBE closed the deal and indicated that it was evaluating its plans to continue providing digital asset derivatives for the transaction.
与传统金融资产相比，数字货币市场波动更加频繁剧烈，且由于尚未有统一监管，该市场风险巨大。且目前的合约交易平台均非官方设立，独立性和透明度不佳，一些交易平台在技术方面并不达标，在行情波动剧烈时，频繁发生用户止损失败甚至无法止损现象，致使用户损失惨重。
The digital currency market is more volatile than traditional financial assets, and the market is risky because it has not yet been regulated uniformly. And the current contractual trading platforms are non-official, with poor independence and transparency, some trading platforms are not technologically compliant, and, in times of volatile behaviour, frequent user losses and even losses have been severed.
从合约市场表现来看，截至2月19日10：30，根据OKEx交易大数据显示，BTC合约多空持仓人数比为2.33，季度合约基差353.81美元，永续合约基差4.2美元，永续合约资金费率0.080%；BTC合约持仓总量11，253，730张，24h交易量24，464，491张；主动买入量315，200张，主动卖出量309，598张；精英账户做多账户比48%，多头持仓比22.89%，做空账户比49%，空头持仓比22.69%。
According to the performance of the contract market, as at 19 February, at 10:30, according to the large number of OKEx transactions, BTC contracts had a surplus of 2.33 per cent, a quarterly contract base balance of $353.81, a permanent contract base balance of $4.2 per cent and a permanent contract fund rate of 0.080 per cent; BTC contracts had a total of 11,253,730 units and 24,464,491 transactions; active purchases of 315,200 units and active sales of 309,598 units; and elite accounts made multiple accounts of 48 per cent, with a larger headhold of 22.89 per cent, empty accounts of 49 per cent and empty head of 22.69 per cent.
数字资产合约分析工具合约帝联合创始人杜万在接受券商中国记者采访时分析，2019年12月18日以来，BTC震荡上涨55天，在2月13日到达火币现货价格10500美元。整个上涨正好是菲波那切数列的一个周期值55。随后，BTC进入回调。2月15日，BTC跌破10000美元，2月17日到达近期低点9456美元。
During an interview with a Chinese journalist who was the co-founder of the Digital Asset Contract Analysis Tool, Duwan, BTC experienced a 55-day rise in the BTC shock since December 18, 2019, when it arrived at a tender spot price of $10,500 on February 13. The overall increase was exactly one of the Python cut-off values of 55. The BTC then turned back. On February 15, BTC fell by $10,000, and reached a recent low of $9456 on February 17th.
其中领涨的“减半三傻”，ETC从13美元下跌到最低8.66美元，BSV从382美元下跌到最低254美元，BCH从498美元下跌到最低366美元。回调幅度巨大。
The rising “twilight” of this, ETC fell from $13 to a minimum of $8.66, BSV from $382 to a minimum of $254, and BCH from $498 to a minimum of $366.
伴随着大幅度的回调，很多高位的多头爆仓。据合约帝大数据显示。仅2月17日，四大交易所[OKEx、火币、币安、BitMEX]爆仓就高达3.97亿美元。
A large number of high-level multi-head silos accompanied by large feedbacks. According to the High Dealers, on February 17 alone, four major exchanges [OKEx, coin, currency, BitMEX] blew up as much as $397 million.
“数字货币高收益背后是更高的风险，控制风险是投资者的第一要务”，杜万认为，随着BTC减半的临近和这一波调整的开始，市场暂时进入了震荡期。这一波震荡会持续1-2周，随后BTC有可能迎来一波减半主升浪。
“The higher risk behind the higher returns of the digital currency is the first priority for investors”, according to Duwan, as the BTC halved and the wave began to adjust, the market temporarily entered a shock period. The shock will last for one or two weeks, and then the BTC will likely hit a major wave of halving.
上述OKEx分析师对券商中国记者表示，在套利机制的作用下，一般合约市场的比特币合约价格和比特币现货价格之间往往存在一个比较稳定的基差，所以合约市场的表现往往跟比特币现货市场价格走势一致。从2月17日OKEx公布的合约大数据看，季度合约基差309.4 USDT，较前几日小幅回落，但仍然处于高位水平；BTC合约多空持仓人数比为2.28，市场做多人数占据较大优势，市场对后市信心仍然处于相对强势状态。
According to the above-mentioned OKEx analyst to Chinese journalists, there is often a relatively stable base difference between the price of the Bitcoin contract in the general contract market and the price of the Bitcoin spot price under the arbitrage mechanism, so the performance of the contract market tends to be consistent with the price of the Bitcoin spot market. According to the large data on the contract published by the OKEx on 17 February, the quarterly contract base is 309.4 USDDT, which has fallen slightly over the previous days, but is still at a high level; the BTC contract is more empty than it is at 2.28, the market is more numerous than the market, and market confidence in the post-market remains relatively strong.
一位合约帝投资用户半木夏对券商中国记者表示，2019年12月中旬以来随着比特币的震荡上行，一些主流币种也经历了较大的上涨，其中ETC从底部的3美元左右涨到12美元，近4倍的涨幅。
According to a Chinese journalist, a contractor who invests in semi-summer coupons, since mid-December 2019, some mainstream currencies have experienced significant increases, with ETC rising from about $3 to $12 at the bottom, nearly four times the increase.
“我在底部附近建仓了低倍杠杆的多单，因此盈利最高达到了40倍，但最近的这次回调损失了30%左右的利润。由此可见，资本市场中伴随着加速上涨的是巨幅回调的风险，交易中宁愿踏空也不要试图去追高，而且永远没有真正的踏空，只有真正的亏损。”该用户说。
“I built a lot of low leverage near the bottom, so I made up to 40 times the profit, but the recent roundback lost about 30% of the profit. Thus, capital markets are accompanied by the risk of a mega-reflection, and trades are better off than trying to catch up, and there is never a real emptiness, only a real loss.” The user said.
平台币回落，交易平台风险应警惕
Platform currency down, trading platform risk alert.
随着比特币价格回落，近期表现亮眼的平台币也有所回调。
With the fall in bitcoin prices, there has also been a rebound in recently visible platform currencies.
平台币该轮上涨由OKB带动。OKB是OKEX的平台币，其价值支撑是OKEx平台的业绩和回购，发行机制为一次性发行和季度销毁。2月10日下午，OKEx发布公告，宣布交易所公链OKChain测试网上线，同时正式销毁尚未发行的7亿OKB，占OKB发行总量的70%，团队不再预留OKB，至此OKB成为全球第一个全流通的平台币。
On the afternoon of February 10, OKEx issued an announcement declaring the exchange chain OK Chain to test the web line, while officially destroying 700 million OKB, which is 70% of the total release of OKB, the team will no longer reserve OKB until it becomes the first fully circulating platform currency in the world.
“全流通”利好推动下，OKB迅速上涨，近七日涨幅达22.08%。受此带动，其他平台币也有不同幅度的上涨，但涨幅较OKB较弱。如火币平台的HT近七日涨幅为4.23%，币安平台的BNB近七日涨幅则为-6.43%。
As a result, other platform currencies have risen at different scales, but less so than OKB. For example, HT has increased by 4.23% in the last seven days, while BNB has increased by -6.43% in the last seven days.
一位业内人士告诉券商中国记者，平台币的价格表现，往往与该平台的行业实力、回购销毁政策和生态建设相挂钩。OKB本次直接销毁了70%的OKB，属于重大利好，价格表现最好；而火币的HT，中币的ZB等平台币也同样发布了类似的公告，所以也有一定程度的上涨。
An insider told Chinese journalists that the price performance of the platform’s currency was often linked to the platform’s industrial strength, buy-back destruction policy, and ecological construction. OKB destroyed 70% of the OKB directly at this time, with significant benefits and the best price performance; and HT, the Chinese dollar’s ZB and others, issued similar announcements, so there was a certain increase.
实际上，与上市公司股票类似，平台币价值，一方面取决于平台本身的价值，另一方面，流通量是最重要的衡量指标。而在当前所谓“公链”应用场景不明的情况下，市场流通和供需是决定其价格的更重要因素。各平台在发行平台币之处均制定了相关的销毁机制，类似股市中的“回购”制度，以保证流通中的平台币的稀缺性，避免平台币“通胀”。
In fact, similar to listed companies’ shares, the value of the platform’s currency depends, on the one hand, on the platform’s own value, and, on the other, on circulation as the most important measure. Market flows and supply and demand are more important factors in determining the price of the so-called “public chain” application.
但在这一大原则的前提下，各家交易平台在具体“回购”与“销毁”的策略上有所出入，“真假”销毁耐人寻味。尤其是规则的多次更改，让人对规则的有效性打上一个问号。例如，知名数字货币交易平台币安在最初版本的白皮书中明确承诺将会以交易平台每季度20%的利润来回购其平台币并销毁。但在2019年4月发布的新版白皮书对于销毁的BNB的具体数量不再给出明确的说法。
But, in the context of this broad principle, trading platforms differ in terms of specific “repurchase” and “destruction” strategies, and “real” destruction is interesting. In particular, multiple changes to the rules give a question mark as to the effectiveness of the rules.
2019年7月，币安更改回购销毁机制，“将会放弃管理团队持有的BNB份额，加入到BNB季度销毁计划中”，这一更改似乎并未改变BNB总量将减少的结果，但投资者并不买单，普遍质疑币安销毁其管理团队持有的BNB的同时，不再履行此前从流通市场中回购并且销毁BNB的义务，并非是在原有回购销毁体量的基础上增加了管理团队的BNB的份额进行销毁。在季度销毁总量不变的基础上，销毁来源从二级市场变成尚未解锁的团队持有的BNB。二级市场并不会因此获利。
In July 2019, the change in the repurchase destruction mechanism, which “will give up the BNB share held by the management team and be added to the BNB quarterly destruction plan”, did not seem to alter the result that the BNB stock would be reduced, but investors did not pay the bill, generally questioning that the currency would destroy the BNB held by its management team while not fulfilling its previous obligations to buy back from the circulation market and destroy BNB, did not result in the destruction of the BNB share of the management team on the basis of the original quantity of repurchased destruction volume. On a quarterly basis, the destruction source would change from a secondary market to a BNB held by an undepriveded team.
而此后这一做法被不少交易平台效仿。
This has since been replicated by a number of trading platforms.
而交易平台带来的风险不止于此。2月17日晚间，交易平台Fcoin公告称预计无法兑付，规模介于7000-13000BTC（价值约6800—1.26亿美元，折合人民币约8.8亿元）。
During the evening of February 17, the trading platform Fcoin announced that it was not expected to be able to pay, and that it would be in the range of 7,000-13000 BTC (with a value of approximately $68 billion to $126 million, equivalent to about 880 million yuan).
该平台于2018年建立，因“交易即挖矿”的高额返利模式红极一时，一度超过火币、币安等交易平台成为全球最大数字货币交易平台。公告中，其创始人称面临的最大问题不是系统无法恢复的问题，而是资金储备无法兑付用户提现的问题。当前面临的内部问题和技术困难，都是资金困难导致的结果。
The platform was set up in 2018 because the high-value return model of “trading or mining” was once the largest digital currency trading platform in the world, over and above a trading platform such as military currency and currency security. In the bulletin, its founders argued that the biggest problem was not that the system could not recover, but that the fund reserve could not be paid for by its users. The internal problems and technical difficulties currently faced were the result of financial difficulties.
责任编辑：张海营
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