比特币暴跌因何而起？市场到底经历了什么

　　4小时级别图形来看，比特币在今日凌晨下跌的当根4小时K线最终以下跌13.67%收场，这一4小时跌幅创出了过去一年半时间以来新高，上一次出现类似情况还需要追溯至2017年12月中旬，也就是比特币创出20000美元历史高点前后的那个时间段。即使是在今年上半年一波小牛市推动价格冲高至14000美元后，行情也并没有出现如此惊人的短时暴跌表现。

The four-hour graphics show that the four-hour drop in Bitcoin in the early hours of this year ended with a 13.67% drop, a four-hour drop that reached a new high in the past year and a half, with the last similar fall going back to mid-December 2017, before and after Bitcoin’s record height of $20,000. Even after a wave of calves pushed prices up to $14,000 in the first half of this year, there was no such alarming short-term collapse.

　　受这波跳水行情影响，Bitmex交易所在过去6小时时间里有近7亿美元多单爆仓，其中爆仓发生的时间点主要集中在行情启动跳水之初，其中今晨2：50至2：55这短短5分钟时间里就有价值超过1.45亿美元的多单遭到强平。

As a result of this dive, the Bitmex Exchange has had over $700 million in more than six hours of a single explosion, with the blast being concentrated at the beginning of the jump, with more than $145 million worth in less than five minutes this morning, from 2:50 to 2:55.

　　今晨“比特币暴跌”话题已经登上了微博热搜榜，截至发文时段，暂时位列热搜榜第13位。

The topic of the “bitcoin crash” this morning has been placed on the list of microblogging hotspots and, as of the time of publication, it has been ranked 13th on the list.

　　受比特币跳水影响，主流币种在凌晨同样出现崩盘式集体下跌，市值前20位的绝大多数币种价格都在一夜之间跌去15%以上，阶段领跌的EOS、BCH以及BSV等币种更是在已经出现了大幅反弹修正的情况下，仍然保有超20%的阶段跌幅。

In the early hours of the morning, as a result of the impact of the Bitcoin dive, the mainstream currency also experienced a collapse, with prices falling by more than 15 per cent overnight for the majority of the top 20 currencies, and the falling currencies EOS, BCH and BSV were kept above 20 per cent in the event of a significant rebound.

　　那么问题来了，市场到底经历了什么？

What's going on with the market?

　　一、Bakkt比特币期货上线遇冷，市场预期落空失望情绪爆发

I. Bakkt bitcoin forwards are cold, and the market is expected to fail and frustration breaks out.

　　本周一备受市场瞩目的Bakkt比特币期货正式上线，但是这一首个用比特币交割的期货产品上线后却并未如期吸引大量新资金入场，反而在上线首日就直接迈入了寒冬之中。据小葱此前报道，Bakkt比特币期货在上线后的前10个小时内仅成交了28个比特币，首日成交额甚至不足CME比特币期货上线首日的百分之一，市场对于这个所谓的“潜在利好”大失所望。

This week, Bakktbit currency futures are officially on the line, but this first commodity, which was delivered in bitcoin, did not attract a large amount of new money on its way to the field as expected, but went directly into the cold on the first day of the line. According to Onion, Bakktbit currency futures were delivered only 28 bitcoins within the first 10 hours of coming online, and the first day was even less than 1% of the first day of the CMEbitco futures, and the market lost hope for this so-called “potential profit”.

　　当时小葱就曾分析指出，从上线首日市场相当低的参与兴致状况来看，类似“为加密货币市场带来新的资金与流量”、“为机构投资者提供更稳定、安全的参与加密货币投资渠道”等利好，目前已经成为了一纸空谈。这种参与度很难在市场上掀起涟漪，而且此前对于这一潜在利好的期望落空反而最终会产生“负面影响”。

At that time, it was analysed by Onion that, in view of the rather low participation in the top-line market, benefits such as “promising new capital and flows for the crypto-currency market” and “providing more stable and secure channels for institutional investors to participate in the encryption of money investment” had become a dead letter. Such participation had been difficult to rise in the market, and earlier expectations of such potential benefits had ended up being “negative”.

　　除此以外，2017年年底CBOE以及CME两大比特币期货先后上线之后，比特币价格迅速筑顶的先例摆在那里，也让Bakkt比特币期货正式上线后比特币价格的前景进一步蒙尘。

In addition, after CBOE and CME were put on line at the end of 2017, the precedent of a fast-growing Bitcoin price was set there, which further obscured the prospects for Bitcoin prices after Bakkt’s futures were formally put on line.

　　二、OKEx与CME两大合约交易平台季度合约即将到期

II. Quarterly contracts of the two main trading platforms, OKEx and CME, are about to expire

　　本周四，OKEx交易所比特币季度合约将迎来又一个交割日，与此同时，CME合约也会在本周五到期。从市场的历史表现来看，合约到期前后比特币币价往往会出现大幅下跌，小葱也曾经针对这一风险在昨日进行了预警提示。

This Thursday, the quarterly contract for the OKEx Exchange Bitcoin will be ready for another cut-off date, while the CME contract will expire this Friday. In the historical performance of the market, the price of the bitcoin will often fall significantly before and after the contract expires, and onions have warned against this risk yesterday.

　　OKEx上一次季度合约的交割日期是6月27日，而这一天，恰好也是今年上半年小牛市正式宣告结束的日期。此外自今年5月以来，每逢CME比特币期货合约到期，比特币价格也往往会出现明显的回调修正。因此这两大潜在利空在本周后半周接踵而至，无疑让市场大幅承压。

The last quarterly contract with OKEx was handed over on June 27, which coincides with the closing date of the first half of this year. Moreover, since May of this year, whenever CME’s futures contracts expire, the price of Bitcoin has often been significantly revised.

　　三、美国SEC开始评估Wilshire Phoenix比特币ETF成“揭伤疤”行为

iii. The United States SEC began to assess Wilshire Phoenix bitcoin ETF behaviour as a “scarker”

　　当地时间周二公布的一份文件显示，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）已开始评估拟议的规则变更，以决定是否允许纽约证券交易所Arca上市和交易Wilshire Phoenix的比特币ETF。该ETF将使投资者同时接触到比特币和美国国债。从现在起，SEC将需在35天内做出决定。根据另一份公开文件。

A document published on Tuesday, local time, shows that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun to assess proposed changes in rules to determine whether to allow the New York Stock Exchange Arca to market and trade Wilshire Phoenix’s Bitcoin ETF. The ETF will allow investors to access both bitcoins and US Treasury bonds. From now on, SEC will have to decide within 35 days. According to another public document.

　　虽然这一举措表面上看起来像是一则利好，但是由于SEC在比特币ETF的评估上一向犹豫，因此市场对于Wilshire Phoenix的比特币ETF顺利通过的期望已经非常有限。加之上周VanEck/SolidX刚刚主动从SEC撤回了比特币ETF申请，因此这则消息反而在一定程度上引发了比特币ETF连连受挫导致的悲观情绪集中爆发，最终形成了被动的利空影响。

Although the initiative appears to be a promising one, market expectations for the successful passage of Wilshire Phoeenix’s Bitcoin ETF have been very limited, owing to SEC hesitation over the evaluation of the Bitcoin ETF. And VanEck/SolidX has just taken the initiative to withdraw the Bitcoin ETF application from the SEC last week, so the news has led to a certain degree to the pessimistic eruptions of the Bitcoin ETF’s company’s defeat, which eventually led to a passive emptiness.

　　四、Bitmex的高倍数杠杆以及巨额合约爆仓成为了空头的“帮凶”

IV. Bitmex’s high leverage and huge contract busts have become empty “collaborators”

　　正如文初列出的数据显示，Bitmex交易所在比特币价格开始下跌后不久出现的巨额多单爆仓导致市场加剧了市场的恐慌情绪，而导致行情的跌幅不断扩大，进而引发了凌晨这波即使是对于一向以高波动性著称的比特币来说也相当罕见的踩踏行情。而之所以在价格波动之初就出现如此集中的强平状况，与Bitmex合约交易提供100倍杠杆不无关系。

As the initial figures show, the huge, large, single-strike silos on the Bitmex exchange, which began to fall shortly after Bitcoin prices began to fall, have exacerbated market panic, and have led to a widening of the decline, triggering a rather rare advance in the morning, even for bitcoins, which have traditionally been known as high-volatility. And it is not unrelated to the 100-fold leverage offered by Bitmex’s contract deal at the beginning of price fluctuations that have been so concentrated.

　　五、也许，暴跌还和美国众院弹劾特朗普有关？

Five, maybe, the fall is still related to the impeachment of Trump in the U.S. Houses?

　　市场上还有一种比较有趣的猜测称，比特币大跌与美国众议院民主党主张弹劾总统特朗普有关。凌晨5点，佩洛西宣布开启弹劾，并指控特朗普滥用职权，目前支持弹劾民主党众议员已达到174人（众议院435席，民主党占235席）。政治分析人士认为，这会是克林顿弹劾案的翻版，即众院通过弹劾，参院否决。1998年克林顿弹劾过程中，美国股市为代表的风险资产就出现了大幅跳水，而比特币这波下跌的逻辑可能与之相仿。

There is also an interesting speculation in the market that the fall of Bitcoin is related to the United States House Democratic Party’s argument for impeachment of President Trump. At 5 a.m., Palosi announced impeachment and accused Trump of abuse of power, which now stands at 174 members (435 seats in the House of Representatives and 235 seats in the Democratic Party). Political analysts argue that this would be a reversal of Clinton’s impeachment, whereby the House passed impeachment and the Senate rejected it.

　　市场分析人士对此怎么看？

What do market analysts think of this?

　　在这波跳水行情走出后，虽然出现了一些唱空观点，但是市场显然并没有想象中那么悲观，对于这一轮突发的回调行情，反而有分析认为有可能是市场给出的“最后上车机会”。

After this wave of jumps out, despite some empty ideas, it is clear that the market is not as pessimistic as it might be, but rather that there is an analysis of what could be the market's “last chance to get in”.

　　Euro Pacific Capital首席执行官、黄金忠实支持者Peter Schiff发推称，比特币终于跌破了几个月来形成的巨大下行三角形的支撑线。这是一个非常悲观的技术形态，它证实了一个主要的顶部已经建立。有极大的风险会迅速跌至4000美元，甚至4000美元以下。

Euro Pacific Capital’s CEO, a loyal supporter of gold, Peter Schiff, argues that Bitcoin has finally fallen through the support lines of the giant downside triangle that has been formed for months. This is a very pessimistic technology pattern that confirms that a major top has been built.

　　股票和加密分析师Ronnie Moas发推称，Coinbase Pro的交易量是周六的8倍，共32000枚比特币。我打赌这是前1%……美国机构投资者利用恐慌购买（比特币），就像10年前股市崩盘时一样。

Stock and encryption analyst Ronnie Moas argues that Coinbase Pro's turnover is eight times as high as Saturday, with a total of 32,000 bitcoins. I bet that's the first 1%. American institutional investors used panic to buy (bitcoin) as they did 10 years ago when the stock market collapsed.

　　今日，江卓尔在微博上回答“（这次是）最后一跌还是第一跌”问题是表示：上一轮牛市2015年10月启动，这一轮提早了6个月到4月就涨，离减半太久，所以中间大概率撑不住会跌一波，这也是牛市前的最后一次上车机会了。此外，江卓尔还称，7000~8000买盘应该很强，难以被击穿，因为有很多人是那个位置踏空的，包括我之前也是8000套保了一波，好在套保出来的钱买了机器，不然就亏大了。

On Twitter today, Jiangchallor replied, “Is this the last or the first to fall?” The last round of cattle started in October 2015, and the round rose six months to April, long before it was halved, so that probably the middle rate would fall by one wave, which was the last opportunity to get in the car before the cow. In addition, Jiangchall said that 7,000-8,000 plates should be strong and hard to get through, because many people were emptied of that position, including 8,000 before me, so that they could buy machines for the money that I had saved.

　　市场分析师CryptoWelson在今晨发布的推特中表示，7500-8500美元这个区间将是非常理想的买入比特币机会。

In a tweet released this morning, market analyst Crypto Welson said that the area of $7,500-8,500 would be an ideal opportunity to buy bitcoin.

责任编辑：唐婧