本文首发于「财经杂志」（ID：i-caijing）
It was first published in the Financial Journal (ID:i-caijing)
《财经》记者 吴杨盈荟 | 文 宋玮 | 编辑
I'm a financial journalist, Mr. Yang Ying, and I'm a writer, and I'm an editor.
公链正处在一个纷乱的战国时代之中。
The public chain is in the midst of a troubled era of war.
2018年被称为“公链元年”，全球涌现出上百条公链项目展开竞争。但这轮热潮甚至还未来得及膨胀，就突然跌入寒冬。随着数字货币市场进入熊市，公链市场进入急剧收缩期：投资缩水，募资市值蒸发，项目大举裁员，主网上线时间延迟。
In 2018, known as & ldquo; Public Chain Year & & rdquo; and, globally, hundreds of public-chain projects have emerged to compete. The boom, even as it expands in the future, suddenly falls into the cold.
“现在不是光公链热潮退去了，所有往外拿钱的热情都在下降。”创世资本CEO丰驰告诉《财经》记者。创世资本从2017年开始以公链为主投资目标，在全球一共投了100多个区块链项目。但投资数量上今年比去年大幅缩减，2017年他们投出了总体投资80％的项目，2018年则只投了20％。
& & & ldquo; not a flashback in the chain of light, but all the enthusiasm to take money from the outside is falling. & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & ; & & & & & & & & ; & & & & & & ; & & & & ; & & & ; & & & & ; & ; & & ; & & ; & & & & & & ; & ; & & ; & & ; & ; & ; & ; & ; ; ; ; & ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
“去年和今年完全不一样。你可以去看看交易所的数据，现在比顶峰流量缩水了90％。大家都在裁员。”丰驰说。
& ldquo; last year was completely different from this year. You can look at the data from the exchange, now it's 90% smaller than the peak flow. Everyone's getting laid off.
公链世界的格局开始出现动荡。被称为“公链之王”的以太坊跌落神坛，分片扩容迟迟未有进展，ETH价格一泻千里。甚至有比特币核心开发者Jeremy Rubin声称ETH价值将归零。以太坊创始人Vitalik在回应中承认了问题的存在：“如果以太坊不改变，Jeremy Rubin的言论可能是对的。”但他也强调社区正在考虑两个提案以保障ETH不会归零。
Even Jeremy Rubin, a central developer of Bitcoin, claims that the value of the ETH will be zero. In his response, Vitalik, the founder of Etheria, acknowledged the existence of the problem: & ldquao; Jeremy Rubin’s words might be right if it was not changed. & & rdquao; but he also stressed that the community was considering two proposals to guarantee that the ETH would not be zero.
曾经的强者没落，年轻的挑战者迅速崛起。EOS上线后不到半年，平均日活跃用户数便超过以太坊27倍之多。然而其成功并不能带来更大的喜悦。EOS通过DPOS机制极大提升效率，但也被一部分人激烈抨击，认为这种牺牲去中心化的机制设计注定了贿选和腐败的可能性。同时其生态设计也用过高的门槛将新用户挡在了门外，让人担忧后续是否还会迎来用户爆发式增长。
In less than six months after EOS came online, the average number of active users per day was 27 times that of Ether. However, its success did not bring much greater joy. EOS has greatly improved its efficiency through the DPOS mechanism, but it has also been strongly criticized by some that the design of such a decentralized mechanism is bound to determine the possibility of bribery and corruption.
公链世界里，旧神坛已经出现崩塌，但新的王国尚未建成。以太坊出现颓势，EOS生态尚未成气候。剩下的众多新兴公链中，亦未出现能和EOS比肩的项目。
In the public chain world, the old altars have collapsed, but the new kingdom has yet to be built. In Etherom, the EOS ecology has not yet become climatey. In many of the remaining emerging public chains, there are no projects that can be compared to EOS.
一片哀嚎声中，亦有人认为这场公链泡沫破裂的正是时候。市场大浪淘沙，90％的公链会死去。未来除了头部公链在激烈拼杀中脱颖而出，还将有一批公链以垂直公链和跨链协议的角色继续存活在公链生态之中。
In a whirlwind, there are also those who believe that the time has come for this public-chain bubble to break. Markets run wild, and 90% of the public-chains die.
2018年夏天，Vitalik出现在中国北京的以太坊技术应用大会。他个子瘦小，眼神羞涩，演讲时将手拘谨地紧贴在裤缝上，像一个突然被老师叫上讲台的无措孩子。
In the summer of 2018, Vitalik appeared in Beijing, China, at the Itha-Technology Application Conference. He was small, his eyes were shy, and his speech was tightly tied to his pants, like a child who was suddenly called to the podium by a teacher.
这和他的身份形成了强烈反差。因创立号称“公链之王”的以太坊，这个24岁的俄罗斯少年在中国被人们捧上神坛，称为“V神”。
This is a strong contrast to his identity. It was created by the name & ldquo; the king of the public chain & & rdquao; and Ethal, a 24-year-old Russian teenager who was put on the altar in China, called & ldquao; V & & rdquao;
Vitalik满足人们对于geek（极客）的典型想象。整场演讲中，他呐呐自语般讲述着关于“分片”技术细节，频繁使用各种专业术语和数学公式。台下不少观众流露出困惑的眼神，显然他们对Vitalik所讲述的技术细节难以产生共鸣。不过尽管听不懂Vitalik的发言，但这丝毫不影响观众们对他的疯狂追捧。下台时，三个健壮的安保人员将Vitalik团团围住，才隔开一拥而上的热情人群。
Vitalik satisfied the typical imagination of the Geek. Throughout the speech, he spoke out loud about “ &rdquao; technical details; frequent use of various professional terms and mathematical formulas. A lot of viewers on the stage looked confused and apparently had little resonance with the technical details of Vitalik. But, while he could not understand what Vitalik said, that did not affect the audience’s cravings. On the stage, three strong security officers surrounded the Vitalik regiment to separate the crowd from the crowd.
有开发者站起来，问Vitalik什么时候能够用上以太坊的分片技术。他极为坦率地回答：“我不知道。”
There were developers standing up and asking Vitalik when he could use the technology of the Etherms. He answered very frankly: & ldquao; I don't know. & rdquao;
彼时Vitalik和满怀希望的以太坊支持者都不认为，分片技术迟迟未上会动摇以太坊在全球公链的领导地位。但情况在半年内发生了变化。
Neither Vitalik nor the hopeful Etherwood supporters believe that the delay in moving up the technology will destabilize the Etherm’s leadership of the global public chain. But the situation has changed over the past six months.
以太币（ETH）价格在2018年下半年急剧下挫。Coinmarketcap数据显示，ETH从今年5月的830美元一路连跌至11月的197美元新低点。短短六个月价格跌去了76％，市值蒸发了高达600亿美元。
The price of ETH fell sharply in the second half of 2018. Coinmarkketcap data show that ETH fell all the way from $830 in May to $197 in November. Prices fell by 76% in just six months, and market values evaporated by as much as $60 billion.
其间两个不利消息加剧了市场对以太坊未来的恐慌。9月，比特币核心开发者Jeremy Rubin在美国科技媒体TechCrunch上发表文章《ETH的崩溃无法避免》，称就算以太坊网络继续存续，ETH的价值也会必然归零。10月，以太坊创始人Vitalik在Twitter上发表了自己退居二线的想法：“退出正在进行中……就算没有我，以太坊网络也绝对会存活下去。”尽管其后Vitalik出来澄清，表示自己没有离开以太坊，只是鼓励其他开发者承担更多的工作。这两个消息也被认为是造成ETH价格急剧下挫的推手之一。
In September, Jeremy Rubin, a central developer of Bitcoin, published an article on TechCrunch in the US technology media, ETH’s collapse could not have been avoided, saying that even if the network continued, ETH’s value would have been zero. In October, Vitalik, the founder of the district, published his second-line idea on Twitter: “ hellip; hellip; and, without me, the network would have survived.
受到ETH价格影响，以太坊的全网算力开始收缩，这进一步削弱了以太坊的竞争力。etherscan.io的算力统计显示，9月到11月以太坊全网算力下跌了20％，从近300TH/s收缩至240TH/s，跌到接近今年2月的水平。
Etherscan.io’s calculations show that the Etherscan.io’s full-network capacity fell by 20 per cent between September and November, from nearly 300 TH/s to 240 TH/s, falling to levels close to February this year.
在对以太坊的失望意见中，绝大多数人把矛头指向以太坊的拥堵。以太坊能成为继比特币之后的“公链之王”，除了其开创智能合约外，显著提升交易速度也是重要原因。以太坊和比特币开始采用的是同一种共识机制——POW(工作量证明)。比特币每10分钟才能确认一笔交易，而以太坊则将这个速度提高到了15秒。
In their disappointment, the vast majority of people pointed to the crowding up of Ether. Ether became the & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & of the public chain after Bitcoin; in addition to creating smart contracts, it was also important to increase the speed of the transaction significantly. Ether and Bitcoin started using the same consensus mechanism & mdash; & mdash; Pow (the workload proves). Bitco was able to confirm a transaction every 10 minutes, while Etherco raised the speed to 15 seconds.
但随着不断发生的网络拥堵事件，以太坊这一优势已经变成劣势。在以太坊中交易需要支付gas作为交易费用。用户支付的gas越高，转账交易就能越快被确认。一个形象的比喻是以太坊网络就像一辆共享汽车，在其上创建智能合约就像驾驶这辆车，gas是你支付的油费，支付多少决定了你能开多远。
The higher the user pays the gas, the faster the transfer transaction can be confirmed. One image is that the network is like a shared car, where smart contracts are created like driving the car, and the gas is the price you pay for oil, which determines how far you can drive.
从2018年7月份开始，以太坊频繁发生网络拥堵，数万笔交易等待打包无法确认，交易手续费因此飙升。etherscan.io数据显示，今年7月到9月以太坊上出现了10余次因网络拥堵造成的转账费用飙升。其中最高一次转账费用飙涨至5862个ETH，是正常转账费用的10倍有余。Vitalik在Twitter上表示，以太坊因网络拥堵产生的成本消耗高达1500万美元。
Starting in July 2018, there was a high rate of cyber congestion in Etheria, with tens of thousands of transactions waiting to be packaged unrecognizable, and transaction charges soared. Etherscan.io data show that there were more than 10 surges in transfer costs due to cyber congestion in Ethletics between July and September of this year. The highest transfer cost jumped to 5862 ETHs, more than 10 times the normal transfer cost.
以太坊堵塞的核心是系统吞吐量问题。系统吞吐量用来衡量一个公链效率，单位为每秒钟处理业务数量（TPS）。以太坊的TPS为30－40，每秒钟只能处理30笔－40笔交易。而目前在全球支付中通行的Visa信用卡最高负荷每秒交易数能达到5万，是以太坊的1000多倍。故而以太坊待处理交易一多，则极容易造成网络拥堵。
At the heart of the problem is system throughput. System throughput is used to measure the efficiency of a public chain in terms of the number of operations (TPS) per second. At 30-40, the TPS handles only 30-40 transactions per second.
以太坊的主要效率限制在于，每笔转账都需要网络中的所有节点一一处理，而每个节点能够承担的工作量是有限的。如果需要提高效率，从根本上有两种思路：要么让网络中每个节点去承担更多工作，比如加倍区块的大小。又或者找到在不提高单个节点工作量的情况下，公链负担更多转账的方法。
The main efficiency limitation in Tai Hwan is that each transfer requires all the nodes of the network to be dealt with, and the amount of work that each node can carry is limited. If efficiency is needed, there are two fundamental ideas: either let each node of the network take on more work, such as doubling the size of the blocks. Or find ways to charge more transfers in the public chain without increasing the workload of individual nodes.
几乎所有的公链都在试图解决扩容的问题，也涌现出包括闪电网络、提高 gas 值限制、EOS采用的DPOS、POB等方案。“扩容有非常多种方案，核心是我们可以牺牲什么？”公链项目IOST创始人钟家鸣告诉《财经》记者。
Almost all of the public chains are trying to solve the problem of expansion, and there are programmes such as the lightning network, the increase in gas value limits, the DOS, POBs used by EOS, etc. & & ldquo; there are a lot of options for expansion that we can sacrifice? & & rdquo; and the IOT founder of the public chain told the finance reporters.
Vitalik则提出用分片技术（Sharding）解决以太坊拥堵的难题。他坚持不采用其他的“容易方案”，而试图打破区块链的“不可能三角”定律——即可拓展性（效率）、安全性和去中心化不能兼得。在他看来，现有区块链牺牲了效率，区块链相互连接的方案牺牲了安全性，而超大区块、超级节点等方案则牺牲了去中心化。他希望实现在主链上每秒能处理几千笔交易，而不依赖任何超级节点。
Vitalik, on the other hand, offered to solve the problem of crowding by using sharding technology. He insisted on not using other & & & & & & & & & ; & & & & & & ; & & & & & & & & & & ; & & & & ; extension (efficiency), security and decentralization. In his view, the existing sector chains were at the expense of efficiency, and the programmes linking the blocks at the expense of safety, while the mega-blocks, supernodes, etc. were at the expense of centralization. He wanted to be able to handle thousands of transactions every second in the chain, without relying on any supernomin.
在北京的演讲中，Vitalik声称采用分片等技术后，以太坊网络最终将能够每秒处理100万次交易，并且有潜力每秒交易超过1亿次。不过实现这一蓝图的时间点颇为遥远。以太坊基金会研究员Justin Drake今年7月表示，分片技术将分两个阶段在2020年和2021年完成部署。对于目前遭遇困境的以太坊和ETH而言，显然远水解不了近渴。
In a speech in Beijing, Vitalik claimed that, with the adoption of technology such as segmentation, the Taiwan network would eventually be able to handle over 1 million transactions per second, with the potential to do more than 100 million transactions per second. But it was a long way from realizing this blueprint. In July, the Etheraya Foundation researcher Justin Drake said that the fragment technology would be deployed in two phases, in 2020 and 2021.
然而这轮ETH价格的剧烈下跌，一些人认为对于以太坊而言不一定是件坏事。他们相信这有利于让价格回归以太坊真正的价值。
This round of ETH prices, however, has fallen sharply, and some believe that it is not necessarily a bad thing for Ether. They believe that it is in the interest of bringing prices back to the real value of Ether.
“ETH不是最近跌得厉害，是之前泡沫太高。之前是因为溢价，没有别的东西变成了硬通货。”一名以太坊DApp开发者告诉《财经》记者。“币圈里流行一种说法，叫做比特币想做货币，结果做成了黄金；以太坊想做操作系统，结果做成了比特币。”
& & ldquo; ETH was not so bad recently, but the bubbles were too high. Before, nothing else turned into hard currency because of the premium. & & rdquo; an Ithana Dapp developer told the finance journalist. & & ldquo; a popular word in the currency circle that bitcoin wanted to make money, which turned into gold; & & rdquao;
2017年ICO募资风行全球，绝大多数区块链项目方收取ETH作为募资币种，这直接助推ETH价格飞速上涨。到2018年ICO在多个国家被禁，不少项目方开始把募来的ETH都出手卖掉，ETH价格随之下跌。此外，EOS问世也助推了以太坊的价格下行。此前公链中只有以太坊，EOS出来之后，公链开始有了替代品。
In 2017, the ICO campaigned around the world, with the majority of block-chain projects collecting ETH as a money-raising currency, which contributed directly to the rapid rise in ETH prices. By 2018, the ICO was banned in a number of countries, and many of the projects started selling the collected ETHs, resulting in a fall in EOS prices.
“以太坊设计的治理机制就不是为了推升ETH价格，ETH不会像比特币一样一直在上涨。”该名开发者说。他们在好几次展会中与Vitalik同台。当Vitalik被人问到ETH的价格时，他总是回答：“建议你如果做资产配置，ETH是最后考虑的。”
& & ldquo; The governance mechanism designed by Taiwan is not designed to boost ETH prices, and ETH is not going up like Bitcoin. & & rdquo; the developer said that they were onstage with Vitalik at several exhibitions. When Vitalik was asked about the ETH price, he always answered: & ldquo; suggested that if you had the asset allocation, ETH was the last consideration. & rdquo;
在以太坊出现衰落苗头之际，EOS乘势崛起，成为公链领域最耀眼的新星。
At a time of decline in Ethio, EOS emerged as the brightest new star in the public chain.
EOS在2018年6月主网上线，其间出现暂停崩溃、上线延迟等曲折问题，最终成功启用。这一波折让不少人并不看好EOS。但EOS随后的数据给予了有力回击——上线四个月后，EOS的总日活跃用户数超过以太坊3倍之多，平均日活跃用户数甚至高达以太坊的近27倍。
In June 2018, on the main web line, the EOS experienced a pause in collapse and a delay in access, which was finally successfully activated. This wave caused many people to lose sight of EOS. But EOS's subsequent data gave a strong response to — — four months after being online, the total number of EOS daily active users was more than three times as high as that of Taipan, and the average number of daily active users was almost 27 times that of EOS.
链塔智库数据显示，从10月1日到22日，EOS平台上DApp最高日活为33383，以太坊上DApp最高日活为2994，仅为EOS的9％。截至11月6日spider.store数据显示，近30天的交易笔数以太坊为1606万笔，EOS为超过1亿笔，超过以太坊6倍有余。
Data from the chain tower think tank show that between 1 and 22 October, the top number of DApp days on the EOS platform was 33383, 2994, or only 9%, of EOS. As of 6 November, the number of transactions for nearly 30 days was 16.6 million in Taicha and more than 100 million in EOS, more than six times as many.
DApp和用户们弃以太坊选择EOS的主要理由有两个：交易速度快，转账不需要手续费。以太坊一笔交易，必须等待15秒的确认时间。这让被互联网惯坏的用户极不耐烦。EOS则能做到交易1秒内到账。此前EOS宣称自己TPS高达百万量级，但主网上线后实测只接近于4000TPS。尽管如此，这一速度也足够支撑目前平台上的各种交易。毕竟Visa信用卡每日平均峰值也不过同样为4000TPS，已足以应付全球32亿持卡人的转账交易。
The two main reasons why DApp and users have abandoned the selection of EOS by the Taiwan are: the speed of the transaction and the transfer does not require transaction fees. In the case of a transaction, it has to wait 15 seconds to confirm it. This makes it extremely impatient for users who are used by the Internet. EOS has been able to reach the account within one second. EOS has declared itself a million-volume TPS, but after the main web line, it is only close to 4,000 TPS.
每一笔转账费用过高也是以太坊的核心缺点。在以太坊上转账必须付出gas费用。如果在以太坊上花2元钱去买一张彩票，可能40％的费用都要花在gas上。这让微支付在以太坊上变得难以普及。因此以微支付为主的DApp，往往难以在以太坊上开发，转而选择不需要转账手续费的EOS平台。
The cost of each transfer is also a central drawback of Etheria. Transfers have to be made at the cost of gas. If two dollars are spent on buying a lottery, 40 per cent of the cost is spent on gas. This makes it difficult for micropayments to be available in Etheria.
这导致EOS平台上竞猜类DApp最为活跃。链塔智库数据显示，10月份EOS平台上竞猜类DApp交易额占总交易额比例为97.86％，竞猜类DApp日活数占日活总数比例为72.08％。
This has led to the most active competition for DApp on the EOS platform. The chain tower think tank data show that 97.86% of the competition for DAP transactions on the EOS platform in October and 72.08% of the daily activity of the competition for DApp were in October.
在效率上远超以太坊，EOS依靠的是与以太坊和比特币截然不同的共识（记账）机制。以太坊和比特币实行的是POW共识机制，而EOS采用的则是DPOS共识机制。两者区别的核心在于——效率和去中心化，到底选择谁，牺牲谁。
In terms of efficiency, EOS relies on a very different consensus (recording) mechanism than Ether and Bitcoin. Ether and Bitcoin apply the POW consensus mechanism, while EOS use the DPOS consensus mechanism. The core of the difference is — — efficiency and decentralisation, who chooses and who sacrifices.
在POW机制下，比特币产生一个区块需要10分钟；而在DPOS机制下，EOS能够达到每0.5秒出一个区块，出块频率相对比特币提升了1200倍。之所以能够做到如此高效，是因为POW机制允许所有人都参与记账，而DPOS机制则是只有被选举出来的超级节点才有权力记账。在EOS的设计中，全球有此权力的超级节点只有21个。
Under the POW mechanism, it takes 10 minutes for Bitcoin to produce a block; under the DOS mechanism, EOS is able to produce a block every 0.5 seconds, with a 120-fold increase in frequency compared to Bitcoin. The efficiency is made possible by the fact that the POW mechanism allows all people to participate in the bookkeeping process, while the DPOS mechanism is empowered to account only for the supernode that has been elected. In its design, there are only 21 supernodes of power worldwide.
这也是EOS被一部分人激烈抨击的地方。某种程度上，这种牺牲去中心话的机制设计，从一开始就注定了贿选和腐败的可能性存在。
And that's where EOS was vehemently criticized by some. To some extent, this sacrifice was designed as a mechanism to get to the heart of the story, and the possibility of bribery and corruption existed from the very beginning.
在比特币代表的POW机制里，社区开发者、用户持币者、矿工维护者三权分立。本来用户可以用脚投票——哪条链做得好，买其代币的用户越多，聚集在这条链上矿工就越多，这条链也越好。
In the Pow mechanism represented by Bitcoin, community developers, users of coins, and miners maintainers are divided. Users could have voted & mdash; & mdash; which chain is good, the more users they buy their tokens, the more miners they gather in this chain, and the better the chain.
但EOS的机制把用户和矿工的权力绑到了一起。21个超级节点由他们分配新挖出来的币，同时21个节点又是用币投票。这就导致了一种贿选倾向：我拥有很多的币，我可以承诺如果你投票给我，我给你更多的币。
But the EOS mechanism tied the power of users and miners together. Twenty-one super-nodes were allocated the new ones, and 21 nodes were voted in currency. This led to a tendency to bribe: I have a lot of coins, and I can promise you more if you vote for me.
一名矿池创始人告诉《财经》记者，超级节点可以用年化收益来贿赂用户——本来5％收益，他们可以发6％控制用户，最后进而可以控制社区。“DPOS在设计上天然能做贿选的事情，不是一个公正的市场。就跟分封制一样，天子分封21个诸侯，是一套自上而下的系统。”
One of the founders of the pond told the financial press that the supernode could bribe the user & mdash; & mdash; otherwise 5% of the income, they could give 6% control over the user, and eventually control the community. “ that it was not a fair market for the DPOS to be designed to be able to make a bribe. Like the partition system, the Tin Son divides 21 swarms and is a top-down system. & rdquo;
21个超级节点权力过度集中，也导致EOS被黑客攻击的可能性大大增加。“以太坊你要攻击一半以上，多达几万个攻击对象。但如果攻击EOS，你只需要攻击11个超级节点——甚至你知道谁在出块的话，只要攻击那几个节点就足够了。”钟家鸣说。
The excessive concentration of power in 21 supernodes also increases the likelihood that EOS will be hacked. & ldquo; Ethio you're going to attack more than half and tens of thousands of targets. If you attack EOS, all you need to do is attack 11 supernodes & mdash; & mdash; even if you know who's coming, it's enough to attack those nodes.
但EOS自有一套办法解决黑客问题，他们设置了仲裁机构——ECAF（EOS核心仲裁论坛）。这个组织的地位相当于EOS系统内的最高法院。2018年7月，一名账户名称为eosfomoplay1的黑客攻击者针对EOS上的狼人杀FOMO游戏发动攻击，成功提现了60686.4190个EOS。该事件快速引起了EOS核心仲裁论坛的关注，最终决定对黑客的行为签发仲裁令，冻结黑客的EOS账户。
But EOS has its own solution to the hacker problem by setting up an arbitration body — — ECAF (EOS Core Arbitration Forum). This organization has the same status as the Supreme Court within the EOS system. In July 2018, a hacker, named Eosfomoplay1, launched an attack on the wolf killing OFO games on EOS, successfully lifting 60686.4190 EOS. The incident drew the attention of the EOS Core Arbitration Forum, which decided to issue an arbitration order for the hacker’s conduct and to freeze the hacker’s EOS account.
这在信奉“Code is law”（代码即法律）的以太坊上绝不可能发生。同样遭遇黑客攻击，以太坊的应对方式和EOS有天壤之别。theDAO是当时全球最大的一个基于以太坊的众筹项目，整个社区完全自治，并且通过代码编写的智能合约来实现。2016年5月28日众筹完成，共募集1150万ETH，当时价值达到1.49亿美元。不幸的是，theDAO遭遇了黑客的攻击，黑客利用split函数盗取了360万个ETH。
This was never possible at the Etheria, which is a believer in “ Code is law&rdquo (the code is the law). It was also hit by hackers, who responded in a way that was very different from EOS. The DAO was the largest crowd-building project in the world at the time, based on Ether, and the whole community became fully self-governing, and was achieved through a smart contract of code writing. On May 28, 2016, the crowd collected 11.5 million ETH, valued at $149 million. Unfortunately, the DAO was attacked by hackers, who stole 3.6 million ETHs using the split function.
为了挽回黑客造成的损失，以太坊社区作出了硬分叉的决定，并由社区投票通过。有意思的是，黑客得知以太坊社区这一决定后，还出来公开发表声明。黑客称分叉是不对的，他愿意拿出攻击所得的三分之一，即120万个ETH作为奖励，让大家不要同意分叉。同时他强调自己的做法同样在践行“Code is law”的原则，他只是拿了该拿的钱。
In order to repair the damage caused by the hackers, a hard-fork decision was made by the community and voted by the community. Interestingly, the hackers came out to make a public statement after learning about the decision by the community. The hackers called the fork incorrect, and offered to give one third of the price of the attack, 1.2 million ETHs, as an incentive not to agree to the fork. He stressed that he was also doing the same & ldquo; Code is law” the principle was that he just took the money he deserved.
“这两种机制代表两种思路，没有对错。POW是一种海洋文化，你强你就说了算。DPOS是大陆文化，大家坐下来商量——虽然商量也是只有一帮有钱人说了算。”创世资本合伙人李荣彬说。
& & ldquo; these two mechanisms represent two ideas, and there's nothing wrong with them. PoW is an ocean culture, and you're the boss. DOS is a continental culture, and everybody sits down to talk about & mdash; & mdash; although there's only one group of rich people who do the talking. & rdquao; and creative capital partner Lee Yong Bin says.
除了机制被诟病，EOS在生态上仍有不少未解决的问题。以太坊创建账户不需要花钱，但EOS的账户必须花钱创建。这导致EOS上的DApp开发者都在苦恼一个核心麻烦——新用户怎么进来？
In addition to the infirmity of the mechanisms, EOS still has a lot of ecological problems. The Etherms do not need money to create accounts, but the EOS accounts have to be. This has led to a core problem for the Dapp developers on EOS & mdash; & mdash; how do new users get in?
EOS在6月份启动主网的时候，已经有16万账户。五个月过去后账户数刚突破47万，半年只涨了30万，并没到爆发式增长的程度。imToken商业运营负责人单宝龙告诉《财经》记者，目前在EOS上创建一个账户，要花费30元人民币左右。这对于开发者而言是很大的成本。“BM（EOS创始人）认为帮用户创建账户是DApp有责任做的，但是DApp没有足够的动力。因为划不来，现在用户没有去用DApp消费的习惯。”一位DApp浏览器负责人说。
When EOS launched the main network in June, it already had 160,000 accounts. Five months later, the number of accounts had just broken 470,000, and only 300,000 more than half a year had gone up, not to the extent of the outbreak. ImToken, the head of the business operation, Monopoly, told the finance journalist that it currently costs around 30 yuan to create an account on EOS. This is a huge cost to developers. & ldquo; BM (the founder of the EOS) believes that helping users to create accounts is the responsibility of Dapp, but Dapp does not have enough motivation. Because of the lack of access, the users are not used for Dapp consumption. & & RDquo; a DApp viewer says.
“EOS日活高是被资金盘和博彩类游戏带起来的。现在公链日活都不多，讨论谁是谁的几倍没有意义。”一家基于以太坊和EOS平台的区块链游戏公司创始人说。以太坊和EOS最高不过几万日活，而且两边有非常大的重合。和传统互联网过千万和过亿的日活相比，公链的用户数只是一个零头。
& & ldquo; EOS daytime heights are brought up by the money tray and the lottery games. It makes no sense to discuss who is several times who in the public chain. & & rdquo; the founder of a block chain game based on the Ether and EOS platforms says that Ether and EOS have only tens of thousands of daily lives, and there are very large overlaps between the two sides.
“之前人们说以太坊生态好，其实不过就是一些小游戏。EOS起来后很快超过了10倍。未来其他公链超过EOS也是如此。这个行业是一个大型的增量市场。”钟家鸣说。
& ldquo; it's been said that the Etherms are eco-friendly, but it's just a little game. EOS rises up and soon exceeds 10 times. And so is other public chains in the future. This industry is a large incremental market. & rdquo; the bells say.
“就影响力而言，现有的公链会死亡90％，甚至99％。”创世资本CEO丰驰告诉《财经》记者。
& & ldquo; in terms of influence, the existing public chain dies 90% or even 99%. & & rdquao; Genesis Capital CEO informs Financial Reporters.
目前绝大多数公链正处于主网即将落地的关键阶段。2018年下半年和2019年上半年是大批公链主网扎堆上线的时间段。而熊市猝不及防在2018年二季度开启，给这些公链的上线计划带来致命一击。
In the second half of 2018, and the first half of 2019, a large number of public-chain main networks were piled up. The bear city could not help but open in the second quarter of 2018, causing a fatal blow to the online plans for these public-chains.
通常情况下，开发一个公链项目需要5000万－6000万元人民币。丰驰透露，在去年的牛市中，很多项目募资超过一个亿。由于手中资金过分宽裕，不少团队选择疯狂花钱进行扩张和推广，并乐观地觉得代币还能再卖钱。熊市降临后，他们不仅发现手头的钱所剩无几，连之前寄予希望的代币再也卖不出去。
Often, developing a public-chain project requires RMB 50-60 million. Fortune reveals that in last year’s cattle market, many projects raised more than a billion dollars.
资金链紧张甚至断裂，让不少公链项目不得不大规模裁员。“我们总建议募资额就是开发所需要的额度，拿钱太多不是一件好事。但有些团队不听，这也跟他们是不是想真正做事有关系。”丰驰说。
The money chain is strained or even broken, forcing a number of public-chain projects to be laid off on a large scale. & ldquo; we always suggest that the amount we need to raise is the amount we need to develop. It's not a good thing to get too much money. But some teams don't listen.
也有一些团队栽在了币价的跳水上。丰驰透露，有公链团队在ETH价格8000元人民币时完成的募资，现在手里ETH价格只剩下1000多元，资金蒸发了80％。“确实听闻有项目方的募资额因为熊市缩水到五分之一甚至七分之一，非常尴尬。不过我们知道有些公链团队很聪明，他们拿到ETH募资后全部换成了美元。”上述区块链游戏创始人表示。
& & ldquo; indeed, it is embarrassing to hear that the fund-raising of the project party is due to a one-fifth or even one-seventh contraction in the bear market. But we know that some of the public-chain groups are smart and have converted to US dollars when they get ETH funding. & & rdquo; the founder of the above-mentioned block-link game says.
公链项目IOST即是其中的幸存者之一。他们通过私募途径募集了相当于4000万美元的ETH，融资完成之后就将ETH变现成法币保值。创始人钟家鸣表示，以太坊方便转账，但并不利于稳定的资金储备。“熊市的钱肯定变少了。对我们来讲生存不是问题，但我们也会调整人员。”钟家鸣告诉《财经》记者。
The public-chain project IIST is one of the survivors. They raise the equivalent of $40 million in ETH through private fund-raising, and then turn it into a French currency to safeguard it. Founder Clock said that it was easy to transfer it in Tai Chamber, but not a stable reserve. & ldquao; Bear City must have less money. Survival is not a problem for us, but we also adjust personnel.
IOST在全球有40个全职开发人员。钟家鸣称其人力成本往往是其他项目的6倍-7倍，但他们不会在这上面削减成本。其将调整的是过去花在公关市场上的费用，用于精准拓展开发者，同时在好的开发者上投入更多的成本。“在资金紧张的时候，你要做更多对的事情。”
IIST has 40 full-time developers around the world. The bells say that their human costs are often six to seven times those of other projects, but they will not cut costs on them. It will be adjusted to the past spending on the public relations market for precision extension developers, while at the same time spending more on good developers. & ldquao; in times of financial stress, you do more right. & & rdquao;
还没有落地的公链都处于危险之中。“我们认为很多公链主网甚至都不会上线。你可以去看看，一些公链开发人员的数量到底有多少。”一名和多家公链有合作的DApp创始人向《财经》记者透露。
The public chain that has not yet landed is in danger. & ldquo; we think many of the public chain main networks are not even connected. You can see how many of the public chain developers are. ” a founder of Dapp, who works with several public chains, revealed it to a finance journalist.
除了资金短缺，产能过剩则是公链的另一大困境。根据DAppradar的数据，目前所有的DApp的平均日活跃用户数基本在1万到1.5万上下波动。截止到2018年11月7日，日均活跃用户在300人以上的DApp一共只有30个，其中以太坊7个，EOS为23个。而传统的互联网App日活往往在千万甚至上亿量级，如微信的日均活跃用户超过10亿，二者完全无法相比。相比于数量少得可怜的活跃DApp，作为“底层操作系统”的公链反而数量众多，目前全球已经有上百条公链项目启动。
As of November 7, 2018, there were only 30 Dapps with an average of 300 or more active users per day, 7 of them in EOS, and 23 in EOS. The traditional Internet App days are often in tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of magnitudes, as in the case of micro-letters more than 1 billion people per day, which is totally impossible to compare. Poorly active Dapps, as & ldquo; bottom operating system & rdquo; and the number of public chains, which now have hundreds of public chain projects around the world.
公链过剩，DApp开发者和用户短缺成为了这个市场目前的困境。于牛市成功募集大量资金的公链项目，在此时展露出其优势。他们纷纷创办了自己的生态基金，通过投资去培养自己公链生态中的DApp与开发者。如NEO投资韩国区块链音乐平台Muzika、Qtum投资Wine Chain等。
The market is currently in a state of difficulty as a result of the excess public chain and the shortage of DApp developers and users. A successful public-chain project to raise large sums of money in the cattle market has shown its advantages. They have created their own ecological funds to invest in the development of DApp and developers in the ecology of their public chain. For example, NEO invests in the Korean block chain music platform Muzika, Qtum invests in Wine Chain, and so on.
虽然公链通过投资构建生态，在吸引DApp上能起到立竿见影的效果。但若无过硬技术支撑，这种做法容易舍本逐末。纵使有投资的吸引，DApp们仍然会用脚投票。
But without hard technology, it is easy to leave behind. Even if investment is attracted, Dapps will still vote with their feet.
今年来，已经出现多起DApp从其他公链回撤到以太坊上的案例，其中最为典型的是CFun。2018年8月，之前搭建在量子链公链上的CFun宣布搬迁至以太坊上。CFun公开表示：“由于Qtum 项目的发展进入瓶颈期，后期技术未达到需求，生态圈较为狭窄，不再适合CFun DApp后续发展，因此CFun项目方决定迁移到其他主网，而以太坊是一个深思熟虑之后的选择。”
This year, there have been a number of cases of DApp retreating from other public chains to Etheria, the most typical of which is CFun. In August 2018, CFun, formerly built on the quantum chain, announced its relocation to Etheria. CFun has publicly stated: “ due to the Qtum project's development phase, the late technology is not up to demand, the biosphere is narrow and no longer suitable for CFun Dapp's follow-up, and the CFun project has decided to move to other main networks, instead of taking it as a deliberate choice. & & rdquao;
“这些公链方向走错了，靠生态基金去投资很多DApp，把他们生拉硬拽拖过来。但他们不应该靠这个，应该靠技术好用和社群共识。”创世资本合伙人李荣彬告诉《财经》记者。
& & ldquo; these public chains are in the wrong direction, with eco-funds investing in a lot of Dapps, dragging them out. They're not supposed to do this, they're supposed to use technology and community consensus. ” Founding Capital Partner Lee Yong Bin told Financial Reporters.
公链竞争的终局模式向来众说纷纭。如今，一个共识逐渐清晰——未来区块链世界里，不会出现一条公链一统天下的局面。“未来公链绝对不是一个公链，类似互联网里有局域网、城域网、广域网。一条链能解决一些问题，但是它要跟外面联络，不可能自己解决所有的问题。”腾讯区块链技术总经理李茂材告诉《财经》记者。
And “ The future public chain is definitely not a public chain, like local area networks, urban area networks, and wide area networks on the Internet. A chain solves some problems, but it has to communicate with the outside world and cannot solve all the problems itself. & & & & mdash; & & mdash; in a future block chain world, there will not be a single public chain. & & ldquo; The future public chain is definitely not a public chain, like local area networks, urban area networks, and wide area networks on the Internet.
这将导致跨链成为核心方向之一。一个以太坊用户，总会有需求要用以太币变成比特币，并且不想用中间人，而是通过技术实现。用户的需求和共识已经存在，只是要用怎样的技术去实现它。“区块链怎么实现跨链？一种是同一平台（同构），一种是不同平台（异构）。比起同构，异构的挑战大很多。现在还处于较混乱的阶段，一堆人在做区块链，未来在跨链上肯定需要统一标准。”李茂材说。
This will lead to cross-linkages becoming one of the core directions. One Ether user will always have the need to use it to become bitcoin, not to use intermediaries, but to do so through technology. Users’ needs and consensus already exist, but only with which technology to achieve it. And “ how do blocks chains achieve cross-links? One is the same platform (synchronous), and one is different platform (symposia). The challenge is much bigger than homogeneity.
同时，未来垂直公链会有一批兴起。“未来一条200个人的公链，一天如果能交易1万个比特币，估值不会比以太坊低。”丰驰说。
At the same time, there will be a number of rises in the vertical public chain. & ldquo; a future public chain of 200 people, if 10,000 bits of bitcoins can be traded a day, the valuation will not be lower than that of Etheria. & rdquao; Quasi.
公链就如同操作系统，每个行业都可以针对本行业生态布局一条小公链。上述区块链游戏公司即正在尝试跟为游戏定制的公链合作，以针对性解决游戏行业的问题。现在出现了问题，大部分都是他们自己在开发解决。他们曾花两个月时间开发level2扩容方案解决效率问题，让一款区块链游戏速度提升了3倍。
The public chain is like an operating system, and each industry can have a small public chain for the ecological layout of the industry. The block-chain game company is trying to work with a public-chain custom-made game to address the problems of the game industry. There are problems, most of which are being developed by themselves. They spent two months developing a level2 expansion solution to the problem of efficiency, increasing the speed of a block-chain game by three times.
除了行业维度，地域区隔也将涌现出一批垂直公链。就如同在打车市场中，中国有滴滴，欧美有Uber，东南亚有Grab。在地域的垂直公链竞争中，如果能争取到当地政府的背书将成为核心优势。
In addition to the industry dimension, geographical divides will emerge in vertical public chains. As in the cabbage market, China has droplets, Europe and America have Uber, and South-East Asia has Grab.
“明年公链竞争会非常激烈，甚至惨烈。公链数量众多，头部效应非常明显，没有成为头部的都会面临最残酷的竞争。”该区块链游戏创始人说。
& & ldquao; next year's public chain competition will be intense and even tragic. The number of public chains, the head effects are so obvious that those who do not become head face the cruelest competition. & rdquao; the founder of the block chain game says.
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