近期，比特币市场的热情被即将到来的“减半”事件点燃，不到两个月的时间内已经上涨160%，前几天更是突破了一万美元的关口。
Recently, the enthusiasm in the Bitcoin market was ignited by the impending “50-per-cent” event, which had risen by 160 per cent in less than two months and had broken the $10,000 threshold the previous few days.
而多头们还做着暴富梦的时候，一场暴跌为他们破了一盆冷水。5月10日，比特币一度暴跌1400美元，在半个小时内直线下挫14%。当日，更是有4万多人合计爆仓60亿美金。
And when many of them had wild dreams, a storm broke their cold water. On May 10, Bitcoin fell by about $1,400, down 14 percent in half an hour. On that day, more than 40,000 people sunk by over $6 billion.
前两次“减半”后，比特币均开启了牛市，一度暴涨超20倍。而这次，“减半”还没到来，比特币价格就开始“泄气”，究竟是为什么呢？
After the first two “halfs,” Bitcoin opened the cattle market, rising by more than 20 times. And this time, the word “half” has not yet arrived, and the price of Bitcoin has begun to “spill”, why?
暴涨160%后突然暴跌1400美元，4万人合计爆仓60亿
Slightly downed by $1,400 after 160% of the strong, bringing together 40,000 people to blow up 6 billion .
今年三月，金融市场的动荡对比特币的价格造成了极大的大家，比特币兑美元的报价一度触及3850美金的低点。
Last March, the price of the volatile bitcoin in the financial markets created a huge crowd, and the price of bitcoin against the United States dollar once reached a low of $3850.
但随着比特币第三次区块奖励减半事件的临近，比特币的价格震荡上行，都铎投资、文艺复兴公司等知名对冲基金也宣布将购买比特币。
But as Bitcoin's third block reward halved, Bitcoin's price surged, and well-known hedge funds, such as Tudor Investment, Renaissance and others, announced that they would buy bitcoin.
5月7日，比特币兑美元的报价突破10000美金的关口，最高触及10074美金，与3月的低点相比，在不到两个月的时间内反弹了161.66%。
On 7 May, the price of Bitcoin against the United States dollar crossed the threshold of $10,000, reaching a maximum of $10074, reflecting a rebound of 161.66 per cent in less than two months, compared with the low point in March.
比特币突破一万美金的关口后，更是有人高呼“20倍行情”将来临。但三天后，比特币的表现却为这些人破了一盆冷水。
After Bitcoin broke the 10,000 dollar threshold, even more so when someone shouted, "Twenty times." But three days later, Bitcoin acted like a cold pot of water for these people.
5月10日早上，比特币从9559美元的高位突然跳水，25分钟后比特币价格已经暴跌超过14%，随后一直在在8600美元左右持续震荡。
In the morning of 10 May, Bitcoin jumped from a height of $9559 and, 25 minutes later, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply by more than 14 per cent, and continued to vibrate at around $8,600.
网友惊呼，刚在热搜上看到比特币暴涨没多久，咋就又大跌了？
I'm shocked by the fact that I've just seen bitcoin soaring on a hot search. How come it's gone down again?
暴跌行情也导致了一家知名交易所出现瘫痪。据News BTC报道，5月10日的下跌是数月来最猛烈的下跌，交易所迅速出现了“超载”的现象，Coinbase的移动应用程序显示出“错误502”的字样，其网页的页面也显示“发生了错误”。
The collapse also led to the paralysis of a well-known exchange. According to News BTC, the fall on 10 May was the sharpest in several months, with the rapid "overloading" of transactions , and Coinbase's mobile application displays the word "fault 502" and its web page shows that “a mistake has occurred”.
投资虚拟货币合约的客户也损失惨重。
Clients who invest in virtual currency contracts also lose a lot.
据虚拟货币数据网站币coin的数据，截至5月10日晚上十点半，在24小时内共有4.2万人爆仓，爆仓的金额达到8.34美元，折合人民币将近60亿。
According to data from the virtual 对此，部分网友惊呼比投资比特币动辄“血本无归，有点恐怖”。 In response, some of the online users shouted that the investment in bitcoin was “bloodless, a little scary”. 作为数字货币的一种，比特币的交易本就复杂，受金融监管、衍生品仓位等因素的多重影响，对于普通投资者来说难度较大。近期，据科创报日报报道，一位海外比特币交易员在推特上报料，CME允许比特币期货出现负数。若比特币也将支持负价格交易，投资者的交易风险将进一步加大。 As a digital currency, Bitcoin’s transactions are complex, subject to financial regulation, derivative positions, and so on, and are more difficult for ordinary investors. In recent times, a foreign Bitcoin trader reported on Twitter that the CME would allow a negative number of Bitcoin futures. 减半带来20倍行情？CME称这次或许不太一样 Half the strong brings about 20 times more? CME says it may not be the same this time. 大约每四年一次的比特币“减半”，都是比特币市场的重磅事件。 Roughly “half” of the bitcoin every four years is a heavy-pound incident in the Bitcoin market. “减半”是比特币的一种获取机制，比特币是用算力“挖”出来的，通常每挖掘21万枚就会出现一次挖掘奖励减半的事件，大约4年一个周期。 “50-per-cent” is an acquisition mechanism for Bitcoin, which is “diggered” with arithmetic, usually with a cut-off bonus of about four years for every 210,000 excavations. 由于全网算力会实时变化，比特币减半的具体时间往往不能提前确定，只能预估。加密货币挖矿公司Coinmint LLC首席财务官Michael Maloney检查比特币区块链数据后称，比特币区块奖励减半时间很可能为纽约时间5月11日晚上7：45（北京时间5月12日早上7：45）。 Due to real-time changes in net capacity, the specific time for halving bitcoin is often uncertain and only estimated in advance. Michael Maloney, Chief Financial Officer of the crypto-currency mining company Coinmint LLC, after examining Bitcoin block chain data, states that the time for the Bitcoin block incentive is likely to be reduced by half on 11 May at 7.45 p.m. New York time (Beijing time on 12 May at 7.45 a.m.). 减半事件相当于减少了比特币未来一段时间的供给，传导到市场上往往会导致比特币价格上涨。前两次减半后，比特币的行情均出现了超20倍的暴涨行情，于是在减半时点即将临近之时，比特币价格也持续上行并突破一万美元关口。 Halved events amount to a reduction in bitcoin’s supply for some time in the future, often leading to higher bitcoin prices on the market. After halving the first two times, bitcoin’s movements increased by more than 20 times, and as the halfway point approached, bitcoin prices also continued to rise and crossed the $10,000 threshold. 在减半之前出现大幅波动 在定于5月12日举行的比特币区块奖励减半之前，所有主要加密货币平台上的交易活动均大幅增加。 Until the Bitcoin block incentive, scheduled to be held on 12 May, there was a significant increase in transactions on all major encrypted currency platforms. 许多比特币投资者更是对“减半行情”十分期待，早已在坐等牛市的到来。部分投资者更是认为，比特币的三月大跌是主力资金故意打压价格以求“吸筹”。 Many bitcoin investors look forward to a “half-per-cent deal” and are already waiting for the bull market to arrive. Some argue that the March drop in bitcoin is a deliberate attempt by major money to “break” prices. 而目前比特币市场已经出现了不少变化，衍生品的出现也使得比特币的价格不能仅仅依靠简单的供需模型来确定，本次减半能否让比特币复制之前的行情值得商榷。芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）近日也刊登一篇分析称，相较前两次，比特币市场上出现了更多的衍生品，这将给这次减半事件带来不同的运行轨迹。 Now that the Bitcoin market has changed a lot, the emergence of derivatives has made it difficult for Bitcoin’s prices to be determined by simple supply and demand models alone, and it is questionable whether this halving would allow Bitcoin to replicate what happened before. The Chicago Commodity Exchange Group (CME) has recently published an analysis that more derivatives have emerged in the Bitcoin market than in the previous two, which would bring a different trajectories to this halving event. 此外，比特币前两次因减半行情而达到高点后，随着而来的往往是暴跌。比特币第一次减半发生在2012年11月28日，减半时的价格约为12美元，2013年12月，比特币价格达到了历史新高270.94美元，涨幅达2000%。但在峰值之后，比特币在2013年维持熊市状态，价格下跌了约80%。 Moreover, when Bitcoin reached its highest point on two previous occasions, it often fell sharply. The first halving of Bitcoin took place on 28 November 2012, at a price of about US$ 12, and in December 2013, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high of US$ 270.94, an increase of 2,000%. But after peaking, Bitcoin maintained a bear market in 2013, with prices falling by about 80%. 2016年7月9日，比特币发生第二次减半事件，当时的价格在650美元左右。在比特币价格2017年12月中旬达到20074美元的峰值后，受到各国监管趋严和交易事故的影响，比特币价格持续下跌，在2018年12月甚至跌破4000美元。 On 9 July 2016, a second halving of Bitcoin took place, at a price of about $650. After reaching a peak of 20074 in mid-December 2017, the prices of Bitcoin continued to fall, even down by $4,000 in December 2018, as a result of tightening national regulations and trading accidents. 暴跌或因为利好预期即将兑现 在前两次减半带来暴涨后，许多投资者对减半事件带来的比特币价格上涨已经有了充分的预期。 Following the surge in the first two halves, many investors already had adequate expectations of the price increases in bitcoin resulting from the halving event. 许多投资者在之前就开始建仓，据CoinTelegraph，近日芝商所未平仓合约创纪录高位，现货交易所在过去三周内表现出了2017年的最高水平。 Many investors had previously started to build warehouses, and according to CoinTelegraph, the unsettled contract with the recent Japanese supplier had reached a record high, and the spot exchange had shown its highest level in 2017 over the past three weeks. 2020年5月3日，比特币最新一次难度调整数据公布，比特币全网算力大幅上涨，超过120EH/s。 On 3 May 2020, the latest difficult adjustment data for Bitcoin were published, resulting in a significant increase in the full network capacity of Bitcoin, which exceeded 120 EH/s. 在第三次减半行情来临之前，比特币已经在两个月内出现了接近160%的涨幅。减半前如此大幅的上涨，在前两次都没有出现。 Before the third halving, Bitcoin had risen by nearly 160 per cent in two months. The rise was so large before the halving, not in the first two. 对于前期布局的投资者，减半正式实行之时便是利好预期兑现之时，在前期涨幅足够的情况下反而可以进行抛售。 For pre-arranged investors, the formalization of the 50 per cent was at the time of the realization of the expectations, and the sale could take place when the increase in the prior period was sufficient. 部分投资者更是认为比特币价格在年后已经涨了几千没有，跌一千多美元也没什么。 Some investors believe that bitcoin prices have increased by thousands since then, and that it has nothing to do with falling by more than a thousand dollars. 关键阻力位表现疲软，部分“大户”开始激进做空 在突破一万美元关口后，比特币没有出现多头预想的暴涨行情，5月8日比特币对美元的报价就跌至9546美元左右。 After crossing the 10,000-dollar threshold, Bitcoin did not experience the expected surge, and its offer against the United States dollar fell to about $9546 on 8 May. 在关键阻力位的疲软表现，使得市场信心受到了较大影响。分析师JOSEPH YOUNG称，当比特币价格在5月8日最初跌至$ 10,100时，这标志着一个关键阻力位的“拒绝”，并使BTC容易受到急剧回调。 Market confidence has been significantly affected by the weakness of key resistance positions. Analyst JosEPH YoUNG claims that when Bitcoin prices first fell to $10,100 on 8 May, this marked a “rejection” of a key resistance position and made BTC vulnerable to sharp retrenchment. JOSEPH称，此时，Whales（拥有大量比特币的个人）迅速采取行动出售比特币。随着Whales开始以9900美元的价格出售，这导致了一系列关于BitMEX和Binance Futures的长期合约清算，一小时内，（他们）清算了价值超过2亿美元的多头头寸。 JOSEPH claims that, at this point, Whales (individuals with large amounts of bitcoins) acted quickly to sell bitcoins. As Whalles started selling at $9,900, this led to a series of long-term contracts for BitMEX and Binance Futures, which in an hour resulted in the settlement of more than $200 million worth of positions. 该分析师还提到，其实，几乎在确认比特币价格难以突破10200美元后，一些Whales就开始在主要的加密货币交易所激烈地做空比特币了，包括币安期货、BitMEX、Derbit和OKEx在内的四大衍生品交易所的持仓量暴跌。而未平仓头寸的迅速下降意味着随着抛售压力的增强，导致期货市场中过度杠杆化的买方陷入了困境。 The analyst also mentioned that, in fact, almost after confirming that bitcoin prices were difficult to break by $10,200, some of the Whales began to do bitcoins in the main crypto-currency exchange, with four major derivatives exchanges, including currency futures, BitMEX, Derbit, and OKEx, falling sharply. And the rapid decline in unaltered positions meant that, with increased sales pressure, buyers in futures markets were in a difficult position to overleap. 上述分析师提示，当许多新投资者因重大事件而进入市场时，就会为急剧的抛售打开市场。例如，在2016年区块奖励减半之后，随着交易员对卖出新闻的反应做出反应，比特币价格出现巨震，下跌了30％以上。 The analysts have suggested that when many new investors enter the market as a result of major events, they open up markets for sharp sales. For example, after halving block incentives in 2016, with traders reacting to news sales, Bitcoin prices have stunned, falling by more than 30%. 比特币价格预期会是多少？ What is the expected price of the bitcoin? 在正常的市场中，供应量减少且需求稳定，通常会导致价格上涨。理论上讲，这可能会导致比特币的价格涨一倍。不过，事实并没有发生，因为在减半发生前，价格已预先上涨了，不过总体上，在减半前后，总有一波较大的上涨。 In normal markets, reduced supply and stable demand usually lead to higher prices. In theory, this may lead to double the price of bitcoin. 过去几年，在减半发生的前12个月，比特币的价格已开始上涨，并且之后还在上涨。 In the past few years, the price of Bitcoin has begun to rise, and has since been rising, 12 months before the halving of the rate. 在第一次减半的前一年，比特币的交易价格在2.5美元左右，减半发生后，比特币价格为12.6美元。之后一年里，价格一度冲至1007美元，随后有所回落。 In the first year of halving, Bitcoin had a transaction price of around $2.5, and after halving it, it had a price of $12.6. In the following year, prices fell to $107 and then fell back. 图片来源：摄图网（图文无关） Image source: Photonet (imposition irrelevant) 2016年7月时类似的一幕再度发生，比特币得到了更多人的认同。在减半发生前一年，比特币在270美元附近交易，发生后的12个月内，它涨到了2500美元。 A similar scene occurred again in July 2016, with Bitcoin gaining more approval. One year before the halving, Bitcoin traded around $270, and in the 12 months following it, it rose to $2,500. 但是在第三次减半前，比特币的价格却没有出现过往的提前上涨一幕。基于过往两次的经验，投资者已将每四年调整一次的供给效率变化纳入其模型，并据此建立仓位。新冠疫情的暴发，导致比特币整体交易量下降，因此不少投资者将目光瞄向了其他风险品种，而且一些采矿运营也受到了市场条件不同的影响。 But before the third half, the price of Bitcoin did not rise earlier than in the past. On the basis of two previous experiences, investors have incorporated the four-yearly adjustment of changes in supply efficiency into their models and created a warehouse accordingly. 此前，矿商往往会出售比特币来获得现实社会中的法定货币，以支撑其运营成本。现在，整个挖矿业被更为专业的挖矿公司所主导，由于回报率降低，他们可能会继续持有比特币的头寸，不再急于出售比特币，直到什么时候出现一个不错的价格可以补偿他们的成本。而减半事件可能会使挖矿业格局发生剧变。 Previously, miners tended to sell bitcoin to acquire the legal currency of a real society to support their operating costs. Now, the whole mining industry is dominated by more professional mining companies, who may continue to hold bitcoin positions as a result of lower rates of return, without rushing to sell bitcoins until a good price becomes available to compensate for their costs. 2018年一年缩水“八成” shrinks by 80% per year in 2018 值得一提的是，对于比特币来说，今天的爆仓并不算“新鲜”，因为在2018年，比特币价格曾暴跌80%，被称为是金融史上最大的泡沫。 It is worth mentioning that for Bitcoin, today's explosion is not “new” because in 2018, bitcoin prices fell sharply by 80 per cent, known as the largest bubble in financial history. 2018年，各国持续收紧虚拟货币监管、“黑客入侵账户”等事故所引发的交易安全问题，屡次重创比特币和其他数字货币市场。当时的市场公开数据显示，自2017年12月17日创下历史峰值以来，比特币市场价格在之后的一年多时间里累计下挫逾80%。 In 2018, 图片来源：摄图网（图文无关） Image source: Photonet (imposition irrelevant) 有媒体报道称，2018年3月初，有不少海外比特币用户在社交媒体发布有关他们账户出现莫名非法交易的情况。经过相关调查，发现是由黑客利用调查网站盗用了账户登录信息，进行了非法交易。黑客们通过在VIA/BTC市场大量购入VIA代币推高其价格，并以高价出售，使得原先的比特币从被入侵账户转移出去。受此黑客事件影响，比特币从当时的10722美元暴跌至8577美元，阶段跌幅达到20%。 According to media reports, at the beginning of March 2018, a number of foreign Bitcoin users published in social media reports about illegal transactions in their accounts. As a result of the investigation, found that it was hackers who stole account log-in information using the investigation website and engaged in illegal transactions. hackers pushed up the price of VIA through large purchases in the VIA/BTC market and sold it at high prices, resulting in the transfer of the original bitcoins from the invaded accounts. 2018年5月22日，美国比特币交易平台Taylor遭到黑客入侵，导致比特币从8419美元快速跌至7397美元一线，跌幅达12%。6月8日，同样的入侵事件发生在韩国交易所Coinrail，使得比特币继续下跌至6749美元一线。 On May 22, 2018, the United States Bitcoin trading platform Taylor was hacked, causing Bitcoin to quickly drop from $8419 to $7397, or 12 per cent. The same invasion took place on June 8 in Coinrail on the Korean exchange, causing Bitcoin to continue to fall to $6749. 黑客攻击所涉及的交易安全，可能并非比特币下跌的主要原因。“黑天鹅”还来自于各国政府对于数字加密货币监管的不断收紧。受此消息面影响，比特币市场遭遇轮番重挫。 The security of the transactions involved in the hacker attack may not be the main reason for Bitcoin’s decline. , the “black swan” is also the result of governments’ increasingly tight regulation of digitally encrypted currencies. 因意识到相关市场可能给金融体系带来风险，中国监管部门于2017年9月叫停了在中国境内的虚拟货币交易所。 In recognition of the risks that the relevant markets may pose to the financial system, the Chinese regulatory authorities suspended the virtual currency exchange in China in September 2017. 美国相关机构在2018年11月中旬进一步加强了对比特币的交易监管。据相关媒体报道，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）于2018年11月16日处罚了两家相关的加密货币公司。与此同时，美国司法部也针对比特币去年底的暴涨过程展开了有关价格操纵的调查。 According to relevant media reports, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) punished two related crypto-currency companies on November 16, 2018. Meanwhile, the US Department of Justice launched an investigation into the price manipulation of Bitcoin’s surge at the end of last year. 减半或带来矿机企业洗牌 halves or bring miner companies to shuffle 近期，矿机市场喜忧参半，在比特币价格在减半预期下大涨的行情下，矿机十分受欢迎。 The market for miners has been mixed in the recent past and is very popular in the face of a sharp increase in Bitcoin prices, expected to halve. 但在挖矿奖励减半后，比特币价格未能实现暴涨，挖矿者的收益将面临腰斩，矿机市场的格局将面临较大的改变。5月10日的暴跌，也为矿机厂商的未来蒙上了一层不确定性。 But the price of bitcoin failed to rise when the incentives for mining were halved, the miners would face beheadings, and the pattern of the miner’s market would change considerably. The collapse on May 10 also created a level of uncertainty about the future of the miner. 近期启动赴美IPO的亿邦国际，也在招股书里指出，比特币减半可能对公司带来风险，“随着比特币挖矿奖励的减少，比特币矿机的生产率可能会降低。” Billion States International, which recently launched its mission to the United States of America, has also pointed out in its equity book that halving the number of bitcoins could pose a risk to the company and that “the productivity of bitcoins may be reduced as the incentive to dig for bitcoins is reduced”. 亿邦国际还提到,目前公司尚不清楚市场会如何应对比特币减半。此外,减半发生后,比特币价格与挖矿行业经济回报的未来趋势也不明确。 Billion States International also mentioned that it was not clear how the market would halve Bitcoin. Moreover, the future trend between bitcoin prices and the economic returns of the mining industry would not be clear after the halving. 鱼池数据显示，按近期币价与挖矿难度计算，在电价为0.25元/度时，蚂蚁S9矿机的日收益为14.23元，电费为7.8元，净收益为6.43元。 The fish pool data show that the daily earnings of the ant S9 miner were $14.23, the electricity cost $7.8 and the net gain was $6.43 at a near-term currency price and difficulty in mining. 这意味着，如果比特币价格在“减半”后价格没有上涨，则在奖励减半后，蚂蚁S9的日收益将变成负数，逃不开被淘汰的命运。 This means that if the price of bitcoin does not rise after “half” the price, after the incentives are halved, the daily gain of ant S9 will become negative and will not escape the fate of being eliminated. 来源：中国基金报、每日经济新闻 Source: China Foundation, Daily Economic News.
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