比特币又疯了！
Bitcoin's crazy again!
根据国内比特币交易网站OKCoin币行网的全年行情走向分析数据显示，2016年1月份的最低价格为2300元左右，截止到12月23日下午3时，最高价格为6458元，上涨价格超过4000元，区间最高涨幅达181%，这也创了比特币价格的三年新高。
According to the year-round trend analysis of the domestic Bitcoin trading site OKCoin, the lowest price was around $2,300 in January 2016. By 3 p.m. on 23 December, the highest price was $6,458 and the higher price was over $4,000, with an increase of 181 per cent between sectors, which was three years higher than the price of Bitcoin.
另外，根据比特币行业观察网站Bitcoinity的统计，比特币11月的全球交易额达到1.7471亿个比特币，按行情换算，约合8903亿元人民币，创历史新高。可以参考的是，澎湃新闻通过计算发现，目前全世界比特币的总数在1600万个左右。
Moreover, according to the Bitcoin website of the Bitcoin Industry Watch, Bitcoin’s global transactions in November amounted to 174.71 million bitcoins, which, in line, amounted to about $8.003 billion, a record high. It is interesting to note that the total number of bitcoins in the world today is about 16 million.
比特币怎么了
What happened to Bitcoin?
美国《新闻周刊》表示，12月21日，比特币的价格已经达到了829美元，而上一次比特币的价格超过800美元还是在2014年2月。
According to the United States Newsweek, the price of Bitcoin had already reached $829 on 21 December, while the previous price of Bitcoin had exceeded $800 in February 2014.
一段时间的黯淡期之后，比特币为何又迎来疯涨？
After a period of darkness, why did Bitcoin rise again?
这一波行情开始于今年6月英国公投退欧，在公投之前的6月1日到18日，由于投资者预感到传统金融市场的波动，比特币价格上涨近50%，被炒到了780美元。在这个时间段，比特币被一些投资者当做较为稳定的避险资产，而硅谷的风投人士Ashvin Bachireddy将比特币称为“数字黄金”。而在特朗普当选之后，比特币行情再现。
This wave began in June of this year, when the British referendum retreated from Europe, and between 1 and 18 June, after investors precipitously felt the volatility of traditional financial markets, the price of Bitcoin rose by almost 50%, and was fired at $780. During this time, Bitcoin was treated by some investors as a more stable risk-free asset, while Silicon Valley’s wind pitcher, Ashvin Bachireddy, referred to Bitcoin as “digital gold.” After Trump’s election, Bitcoin reappeared.
比特币今年另外一次大涨是在产量减半之前。澎湃新闻今年7月曾经报道，根据比特币的设计规则，7月9日将迎来四年一次的产量减半日，比特币矿工所能挖出的比特币数量由每10分钟25个比特币减至12.5个。在产量减半之前，从5月开始比特币经历3轮大涨，今年6月比特币价格又强势拉升，从每个3480元上涨到最高点5185元。
Last July, the news reported that, according to Bitcoin’s design rules, the number of bitcoins that Bitcoin miners could dig down from 25 bitcoins per 10 minutes to 12.5 by the end of the four-year period. By the end of the year, three rounds of Bitcoins had risen since May, and by the end of June, Bitcoin prices had risen sharply, from $3480 to a peak of $5185.
“挖矿”指的是，比特币虽然没有中央银行发行，但可以通过在线完成艰巨任务来创建，这一过程被称为挖矿，所谓“挖矿”实质上是用超级算力的计算机解决一项复杂的数学问题，来保证比特币网络分布式记账系统的一致性。随后比特币网络会新生成一定量的比特币作为赏金，奖励获得答案的人。
The term “mining” refers to the fact that Bitcoin, although not issued by the central bank, can be created by doing difficult tasks online, a process known as mining, which essentially solves a complex mathematical problem with a super-calculatory computer to ensure consistency in the Bitcoin network distributional accounting system. The Bitcoin network will then generate a certain amount of bitcoin as a reward for those who receive answers.
2009年“比特币之父”中本聪在设计之初，模拟了黄金的特点，设定比特币总量恒定、不能人工合成，且可以开采的量越来越少。中本聪的规则指定，流通中的比特币数量以递减的速度增长，最大数额为2100万，比特币网络每10分钟释放出一定数量币，预计将在2140年达到极限。按照中本聪的设计，大概是每4年产量会减少一半，一开始是每天会发行7000个比特币，而4年之后，就会变成3500个，现在已经减少到了1750个。
At the beginning of the design, in 2009, Bennett, the father of Bitcoins, simulated the characteristics of gold and set the total number of bitcoins as constant, non-combinable, and less and less exploitable. The rules set out that the number of bitcoins in circulation is growing at a decreasing rate, with a maximum of 21 million and a certain amount of coins released by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes, are expected to reach its limit in 2140. According to the design of the mediumbone, production will probably be reduced by half every four years, starting with 7,000 bitcoins per day, and in four years it will be 3,500, which will now be reduced to 1750.
看涨
招商证券分析师刘泽晶撰文表示，最近两个月比特币再次走强，全球交易额和国内报价均创新高，可以说是继年中后的又一轮“牛市”。文章认为主要原因有二：一是随着人民币汇率波动风险和部分国家地区经济波动风险的增加，避险情绪促使资金涌入比特币投资市场；二是比特币和其底层技术区块链概念逐渐被越来越多的人理解和关注，认可其安全性和投资价值。刘泽晶认为，人们会选择比特币进行资金避险恰恰从侧面反映了比特币和区块链正逐渐被正视。
Liu Zejing, a securities analyst, wrote that in the last two months Bitcoin was once again strong and that global turnover and domestic prices were both innovative and could be described as a further round of the “cow market” after the middle of the year. The two main reasons for the article are: first, that the risk of risk avoidance has led to an influx of funds into the Bitcoin investment market as the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in the renminbi and economic fluctuations in some parts of the country increased; and second, that the concepts of Bitcoin and its bottom technological block chain have been increasingly understood and appreciated, recognizing their safety and investment value. Liu Zejing argued that the choice of Bitcoin to hedge money is precisely a side-by-side reflection of the Bitcoin and block chain.
根据普华永道公布的最新统计数据，2016年前9个月，全球区块链初创企业共获得约14亿美元的投资。据统计，2015年区块链领域投融资总额约为4.74亿美元。也就是说，仅2016年前三个季度的投融资额就已经比去年全年增长了195%。
According to the latest statistics released by PricewaterhouseCoopers, in the first nine months of 2016, some $1.4 billion in investments were made by start-ups in global block chains. Total financing in the block chain area was estimated to be $474 million in 2015.
刘泽晶表示，此轮大涨有望提振产业链的进一步繁荣：比特币产业链包括了发行（矿机、矿池）、交易（交易所）、存储（比特币钱包）、应用（转账支付、电子商务等）几个环节。比特币的投资热情高涨又带动产业链的繁荣，为比特币和区块链领域的公司带来更优良的资本环境。此外，目前无论政策、技术还是资金角度看，“区块链+金融”均具备先发优势，有望率先落地。
Liu Zejing said that the boom was expected to boost further prosperity in the industrial chain: the Bitcoin industrial chain included distribution (miners, ponds), trading (exchanges), storage (bitcoin wallets), applications (transfer payments, e-commerce, etc.). Bitcoin’s investment enthusiasm led to a boom in the industrial chain, leading to a better capital environment for companies in the bitcoin and block chain areas.
从比特币交易所的角度来看，本轮上涨也是避险情绪主导的。OKCoin币行网对于比特币价格上涨的分析称，投资者避险情绪升温，而由于中国投资者投资渠道有限，如何寻找资产保值方式成为一大难题，中国投资者正在积极寻求替代投资方式。和其他投资方式一样，比特币交易为中国投资者提供了一种投资选项，来实现资产多元化。
From the point of view of the Bitcoin exchange, this round of booms is also dominated by a sense of risk avoidance. An analysis of the price increases in bitcoin by the OKCoin network suggests that investors have a heightened sense of risk avoidance and that, given the limited investment channels available to Chinese investors, it is a major challenge to find ways to safeguard their assets.
除了中国方面的因素，国外市场对比特币的需求量也开始增多，OKCoin币行网表示，自今年6月份起，委内瑞拉经济的动荡导致大量的创业者转向比特币挖矿，该国比特币涨至近1000美元。此外，日本、韩国等国家允许比特币作为支付手段，购买水电费和生活用品等，为比特币大开方便之门。
In addition to Chinese factors, the foreign market’s demand for bitcoin has also started to rise, with the OkCoin network saying that, since June of this year, the turmoil in the Venezuelan economy has led a large number of entrepreneurs to turn to bitcoin for mining, and that the country’s bitcoin has risen to nearly $1,000. Moreover, countries such as Japan and South Korea have allowed bitcoin to be used as a means of payment, purchasing utilities and living goods, etc., thus facilitating Bitcoin’s access.
唱衰
sings
虽然“炒币”热火朝天，市场上也不乏唱衰之声。
Despite the hotness of the “frozen coins”, there is no lack of sound in the market.
比特币核心开发者之一Mike Hearn今年年初发表文章称比特币实验失败了，因为遭到了中国炒币者的控制，他宣布退出比特币项目，卖掉所有的币。Mike Hearn说，他很早就告诫其他人，比特币只是一个实验，和所有实验一样，都可能会失败，如果不能承担损失不要去投资。比特币的基础已经破坏，不管短期的价格如何变化，它的长期趋势将是下滑。
Mike Hearn, one of Bitcoin’s core developers, published an article early this year calling the Bitcoin experiment a failure because he was under the control of Chinese bankers who announced his withdrawal from the Bitcoin project and sold all the coins. Mike Hearn said that he had warned others long ago that Bitcoin was just an experiment, and that, like all experiments, it could fail and not invest if losses were not borne. Bitcoin’s base was destroyed, and its long-term trend would decline, regardless of short-term price changes.
值得注意的是，比特币虽然诞生在美国，但是在中国的交易量很大。比特币在中国的交易量具体有多大一直颇有争议，一家中国的比特币交易所对澎湃新闻表示，由于中国的比特币平台实行免交易手续费，因而交易量占全球比例超过80%。而另外一家交易所在计算中将免手续费导致的大量重复交易减去，核算下来中国的份额大约占全球比特币市场的30%-40%。
It is worth noting that Bitcoin was born in the United States, but has a large volume of transactions in China. The exact magnitude of Bitcoin’s transactions in China has been controversial, with a Chinese Bitcoin exchange reporting news that China’s Bitcoin platform is free of transaction fees, resulting in a global share of transactions of over 80%.
由于大量炒家介入，比特币发生过多次价格暴涨暴跌。自2009年诞生以来，比特币曾经有过大爆炸式的增长，涨幅高达20000倍。但在2013年12月5日，央行发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》，明确表示比特币不是真正意义的货币之后，比特币价格遭到腰斩。后来，2014年2月25日，世界上最早的比特币交易平台，日本的Mt. Gox网站遭遇85万个比特币被盗事件给热火朝天的全球比特币交易一记“当头棒喝”，此后价格一路下滑，最低谷下挫到每个比特币933元人民币。
But, on 5 December 2013, the Central Bank issued a Notice on Protection against Bitcoin’s Risk, making it clear that bitcoin was not a real currency, and that bitcoin prices were cut off. Later, on 25 February 2014, the world’s oldest Bitcoin trading platform, the Japanese web site Mt. Gox, was hit by 850,000 Bitcoin thefts, giving hot-fire global bitcoin transactions a “right-hand drink” – a price that fell all the way down to the bottom of every bitcoin’s 933 yuan.
在今年比特币又遇到风险事件。位于香港的Bitfinex交易所8月发公告称平台被盗损失，当天比特币价格下跌20%。11月彭博社消息称，不愿具名的知情人士透露，中国人民银行等监管部门正在研究推出措施，限制通过比特币交易将人民币兑换为美元，并将资金汇出境外的行为，受此消息影响，11月3日比特币价格原本已经涨到突破人民币5000元，一度下跌10%。
In August, the Bitfinex Exchange in Hong Kong announced that the platform had been stolen and that the price of Bitcoin had fallen by 20% that day. In November, Bloomberg reported that unnamed sources had revealed that regulatory agencies such as the People’s Bank of China were working on measures to limit the exchange of the renminbi into United States dollars through Bitcoin transactions and the transfer of funds abroad, and that, as a result, the price of Bitcoin had already risen to over 5,000 yuan on 3 November, a drop of 10 per cent.
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