本文来自微信公众号：李大大饼（ID：gh_61ffff75b09f），作者：Alex，编辑：大饼，原文标题：《这，是Facebook母公司关于元宇宙的80万亿美元豪赌》，头图来自：视觉中国
前几天，受世界科技互联网巨头平台 Facebook 母公司 Meta 的委托，著名国际咨询公司 Analysis Group （ 简称AG ）发布一份关于元宇宙行业的白皮书。 A few days ago, a white paper on the meta-cosm industry was published by Analysis Group , a leading international consulting firm, commissioned by the World Science and Technology Internet giant, Facebook parent, and . 这份报告，对元宇宙的未来市场发展做出了估计，并且在报告中提到，以乐观方式估计，未来元宇宙相关产业的市场规模将达到：80 万亿美元。 The report provides an estimate of the future market development of the meta-cosmos and mentions an optimistic estimate that the future market size of the meta-cosmos-related industries will reach 80 万亿美元这个数字，乍一看你可能没什么感觉，现在全球市场上市值最高的公司是苹果，有 2.55 万亿美元。 The figure of $8 trillion, which, at first glance, may not feel very good, now the most marketed company in the global market is Apple, with $2.55 trillion. 也就是说，这个市场规模的体量，相当于：31 个苹果公司。 In other words, the size of the market is equivalent to 31 apple companies. 当然，虽然数字美妙，但这份白皮书的论证，有一个大前提： Of course, while the numbers are wonderful, the reasoning behind the White Paper is based on one premise: 在理论上，假设任何突破性的技术创新都可以作为元宇宙分析的基础模型，尤其是移动技术——移动设备及其相关的基础设施和生态系统。 In theory, assumes that any breakthrough technological innovation can serve as a basic model for meta-cosm analysis, in particular mobile technology - mobile devices and their associated infrastructure and ecosystems. 这一点和锤子的老罗的观点不谋而合，而 AG 团队之所以有这样的假设，原因是： This coincides with the old man's opinion of the hammer, and the AG team has this assumption because: 手机、计算机和 PlayStation 等线下设备通过互联网进行互联，克服了地理位置的限制，从根本上改变了群体之间的连接方式。元宇宙概念也同样具备这个特性，利用现有技术，如 AR/VR、视频会议、多人游戏和数字货币等等，将世界“联动”。 Underline devices such as mobile phones, computers, and PlayStation are connected via the Internet, overcoming the limitations of geographical location and fundamentally changing the way people connect. The meta-cosm concept also has this feature, using existing technologies, such as AR/VR, videoconferencing, multiplayer games and digital money, to “connect” the world. 不仅仅是联动这么简单，报告中指出： It's not just that simple. The report states: 元宇宙将进一步打破位置障碍，通过实现更无缝和沉浸式体验，以及创造一种异地共存感。同时还会改变诸多行业。与移动技术类似，元技术领域的应用预期范围是深远的，包括通信、娱乐、教育 、医疗保健、制造业和零售领域。 The meta-cosm will further break the barriers to location, by creating a more seamless and immersional experience, and by creating a sense of co-existence. It will also change many industries. Similar to mobile technology, applications in meta-technology are expected to be far-reaching, including in the areas of communications, recreation, education, health care, manufacturing, and retailing. Meta 家的产品 Horizon Home 除去数据来源解析与估算模型构建，这份白皮书主要分为三个部分： The White Paper is divided into three main parts, with the exception of the data source analysis and estimation model construction: 1. 元宇宙的定义，目前的落地场景； Definition of the meta-cosmos, current landing scenario; 2. 通过对上一代移动通信技术对经济影响的分析来预测元宇宙的发展； 2. Forecasting the development of the metacosystem through an analysis of the economic impact of the previous generation of mobile communication technologies; 3. 通过建模来预测元宇宙将来对于 GDP 的影响，同时指出元宇宙经济的机遇和挑战。 Modelling the future impact of the meta-coastal on GDP, while pointing out the opportunities and challenges of the meta-coastal economy. 我们将报告中的内容，给大家做一些关键点阐述。 We will give you some key points about what is in the report. 一、理论支持 元宇宙作为一种革命性技术，要预估它对于经济的影响是非常不容易的。 As a revolutionary technology, it is very difficult to predict its impact on the economy. 虽然定量分析较为困难，但利用之前新技术在市场上扩散和影响的经验，以及与这些技术有关的经济理论，可以建立相关模型进行分析，进而提供有参考价值的观点。 While quantitative analysis is difficult, the experience with the diffusion and impact of new technologies on the market, and the economic theories associated with these technologies, can be used to develop relevant models for analysis and thus provide a useful point of view. 在经济学上，有两个与新技术相关的理论是可以用来做对于元宇宙的分析预测的： In economics, there are two theories associated with new technologies that can be used to predict the analysis of metacosystems: 1. 炒作周期（The Hype Cycle） 1. 2. S 型曲线（S-curves） 著名的研究和咨询公司 Gartner 每年会发布“炒作周期和优先矩阵”报告，试图根据新技术上市的前景对新技术进行分析，通过多年研究，他们整理研究出了炒作周期曲线。 Gatner, a leading research and consulting firm, publishes a report on “Functure Cycles and Priority Matrix” every year, which attempts to analyse new technologies in the light of their prospects for listing. Through years of research, they organize and study the cyclical curves of the production of new technologies. AG 团队认为，元宇宙技术同样适用于该曲线，根据该曲线，他们分析： The AG team believes that meta-cosm technology applies equally to the curve, according to which they analyse: 元宇宙一开始会被过度炒作，之后随着人们过度期望产生泡沫的破裂，元宇宙将出现逆向的修正，之后相关产品销量会在生产商不断改进产品和创新中稳步上升。 The `strung' meta-cosm will begin with over-exploitation, and then, as people over-exploitate to create bubbles, the meta-cosm will be reversible, and then the volume of related product sales will rise steadily in the production of improved products and innovations. 不过，单单依靠 Gartner 的炒作曲线是远远不够的。 However, relying on Gartner's foiling curves alone is far from sufficient. 因为即便知道新技术有炒作周期，但现阶段无法定义元宇宙具体行业属于炒作周期的哪个阶段，所以无法对元宇宙进行更加细致的分析预测。 Since it is not possible at this stage to define the stage in which the specific industries of the meta-cosm are in the festivities, even when it is known that new technologies have a festivities, it is not possible to analyse the meta-cosm more closely. 于是，S 型曲线就派上了用场。 So, the S-curve came in handy. S 型曲线（ S-curves ） 每条“S”代表市场上的一项新的革命性技术 图源：Gartner 经济学家 Clayton M. Christensen 指出： According to Economist Clayton M. Christensen: “每项新技术都倾向于遵循一个 S 形曲线。这些技术的发展，一开始都会经历一段缓慢的初始时期（技术革新和逐渐被采用），随后是一段快速变化的时期， 然后随着市场的成熟而趋于平稳。但随着时间的推移，新的技术往往会开始逐渐取代之前的技术——例如，智能机取代了 MP3,MP4 等等。” "Each new technology tends to follow an S-shaped curve. The development of these technologies begins with a slow initial period , followed by a fast-changing period, and then calms down as markets mature. But, over time, new technologies tend to begin to gradually replace former technologies – for example, smart machines have replaced MP3, MP4 and so on." 正如创新咨询公司 CEO Soren Kaplan 所说： As CEO Soren Kaplan said: “S 曲线通常代表了一个新的市场（服务，技术等）的诞生，和上一个市场的消失与死亡”。 “S curves usually represent the birth of a new market and the disappearance and death of the previous market”. 经济学家 Carlota Perez 对每个单条 “S” 进行了具体阐述： The economist Carlotta Perez elaborates on each single “S”: “这更像是一场革命。在经济发达的时期，新技术会像推土机一样，破坏现有的产业结构 ，连接新的工业网络，建立新的基础设施，传播先进的工作和生活方式。” "This is more like a revolution. In times of economic development, new technologies, like bulldozers, destroy existing industrial structures, connect new industrial networks, build new infrastructure, spread advanced jobs and lifestyles." 为了好理解，我们翻译了一张 S 曲线拆解图示： For the sake of comprehension, we have translated an S curve decoupling diagram: 图片来源：《 The Death and Birth of Technological Revolutions. 》 翻译：大饼编辑部 基于上述理论及报告，我们认为，现阶段以元宇宙为代表的第三代计算平台所处的位置应为金融炒作期，并且在“技术爆炸点”前方： On the basis of the above-mentioned theory and report, we believe that the position of the third generation, represented by the meta-cosmos, at this stage should be a financial boom period and before the “technical explosion point”: 图源：基于 Gartner，由本编辑部制作 相应地，以元宇宙为代表的第三代计算平台技术，在 “ 炒作曲线 ” 中的位置，据本编辑部估计应为： Correspondingly, the position of the third generation computing platform technology, represented by the meta-cosmos, in the “functure curve”, is estimated by this editorial department to be: 当然，这一切都仅为预估，对于一项新的技术及产业来讲，未来的不确定性是很大的。 Of course, all this is only an estimate, and for a new technology and industry there is great uncertainty about the future. 但，所有研究者都不约而同地认为： However, all researchers do not agree that: 手机是那个将要被推下铁王座的国王。 "Strong" is the king who is about to be pushed down the Iron Throne. 而围绕元宇宙的下一代计算平台，是新王的有力竞争者。 And the next generation of computing platforms around the meta-cosmos is a strong competitor of the new king. 撰写本报告的 AG 团队，也是这么认为。 The AG team that wrote this report, too. 二、模型构建与预测 AG 分析团队采用了 Waverman, Meschi, and Fuss (2005) and Andrianaivo and Kpodar (2011) 研究人均 GDP 增长和移动宽带（手机互联网）之间的关系的模型： The AG team used Waverman, Meschi, and Fuss (2005) and Andrianaivo and Kpodar (2011) to study the relationship between per capita GDP growth and mobile broadband 为了避免统计学上内生性的影响，他们采用了 Arellano and Bond (1991) 使用过的 GMM 估计器和特定时间的工具变量来估计模型。（看不懂没关系，直接看下文的结论就行） In order to avoid statistically inherent effects, they used the GMM estimates used in Arellano and Bond (1991) and the time-specific tool variables to estimate models. 从上述量化分析中，AG 团队得到的结论是： From the above quantitative analysis, the AG team concluded that: 移动技术采用率增加 10%，GDP 会相应地增加 0.087 。 mobile technology adoption increases by 10 per cent, and GDP increases by 0.087 accordingly. 换句话说，就是移动技术的市场普及率每增加 10%，相关市场的总收入就会增加全球总 GDP 的8.7%。 而作为移动技术下一代的元宇宙呢？ And what about the meta-cosmos as the next generation of mobile technology? 经过进一步的建模分析，他们的结论是： After further modelling, they concluded that: 如果元宇宙在 2022 年开始采用，那么元宇宙在 2031 年对全球 GDP 的总贡献将为至少 3.01 万亿美元（分析团队以 2015 年美金汇率价值进行推算，原因为 2015 年美金汇率较为稳定，更深层的原因能写篇论文了，本编辑部不赘述）。 If the metacosystem were introduced in 2022, the total contribution of the metacosystem to global GDP in 2031 would be at least $3.01 trillion 10 年后元宇宙对 GDP 的贡献值 其中 APAC（亚太地区）排名第一，在元宇宙核心产业的产值将达到 1.04 万亿美元。 Among them, APAC is ranked first, and production in the meta-cosm core industry will reach 1.04 trillion dollars. 此外，对 Canada（加拿大） 、Europe（欧洲）、India（印度）、 LATAM（拉丁美洲）、MENAT（撒哈拉以及南非地区）、和 US（美国）的元宇宙领域产值分别为 0.02 万亿美元、0.44 万亿美元、0.24 万亿美元、0.32 万亿美元、0.36 万亿美元、0.04 万亿美元和 0.56 万亿美元。 In addition, for Canada, Europe, India 并且，文章指出，从长远角度来看，元宇宙相关产业的整体市场规模保守估计为 3万亿~30 万亿美元，而最乐观估计值为： Moreover, the article notes that, in the long term, the overall market size of the industries associated with the meta-cosmos is conservatively estimated at $3 trillion to $30 trillion, while the most optimistic estimates are: 80 万亿美元。 80 trillion dollars. 三、障碍以及案例分析 虽说，元宇宙有着广阔的发展空间和前景，但目前，元宇宙还是有无法绕过的三个障碍。 While the metacosystem has vast development space and prospects, at present it has three obstacles that cannot be bypassed. 技术专家 Ball, Matthew 在 2020 年发表的文章中指出，元宇宙技术的快速发展，还需要实现三个点： According to a technical expert, Ball, Matthew, in an article published in 2020, the rapid development of meta-cosm technology requires the realization of three points: 1. 将需要进行大规模的协作，包括对现有不同公司的协议进行整合以及为创建新的协议制定一个统一的规范。 1. Large-scale collaboration will be required, including consolidation of existing agreements between different companies and development of a uniform norm for the creation of new agreements. 2. 需要相关元宇宙公司制造一个 “爆点”，以不断地吸引新的用户采用元宇宙技术。 2. There is a need to create a “explosion point” to attract new users on a continuous basis to use meta-cosm technology. 3. VR 等技术的快速革新，当做出一个类似于乔布斯的 iphone 的时候，才会将元宇宙技术推向高潮。 3. . 显然，出钱委托 AG 做这份白皮书的 Meta 公司，深刻地了解元宇宙的巨大前景和发展的障碍。 Apparently, the company Meta, which paid AG to do this white paper, has a deep understanding of the great prospects and obstacles to the development of the meta-cosmos. 他们做这份报告，描绘美好的未来，是为现在的亏损在资本市场上讲故事撑腰。 They make this report, depicting a good future, supporting the storytelling of current losses in capital markets. Facebook 自从改名 Meta，并开始全力投入元宇宙相关产业后，其公司财报就开始分为传统应用和 Reality Labs（元宇宙业务）两块业务。 Since its change of name, Meta, and beginning to invest heavily in the meta-cosm-related industries, its corporate financial statements have been divided into traditional applications and business of Reality Labs 其中 Reality Labs 在本季度收入达 6.95 亿美元，同比增长35%。 Of these, Reality Labs earned $695 million during the quarter, an increase of 35 per cent over the same period. 与此同时，投入成本增长了 55%，因此净亏损高达 29.6 亿美元。 At the same time, input costs increased by 55 per cent, resulting in a net loss of $2.96 billion. 在这个状态下，Meta 对于元宇宙的投注只增不减，每个季度的投资平均稳定在 25 亿美金，最少为 18.27 亿美金，最多为 33.04 亿美金。 In this state, Meta's bets on the meta-cosmos have increased and remained stable on average at $2.5 billion per quarter, a minimum of $1.827 billion and a maximum of $3.204 billion . Meta 可谓是在元宇宙这场豪赌中 All In 了： All In: 1. 在 Meta 旗下的 Horizon 平台添加新的 VR 功能 —— Horizon Home（创建了一个虚拟的空间，在这个空间想干嘛就干嘛）； Add a new VR function to the Horizon platform under the Meta flag -- Horizon Home; 2. 大笔投入，全力开发新款的高端 VR 头显 —— Project Cambria（产品设想中，你甚至可以在虚拟空间和朋友进行眼神交流）； Large investment in the development of a new high-end VR headline - Project Cambria; 3. 继续加大对 VR 设备 OCULUS QUEST 2 的推广和销售。 3. Continue to increase the promotion and marketing of VR equipment OCULUS QUEST 2. OCULUS QUEST 2 自 2020 年发布以来，总销售额已经超过了 10 亿美元，官方并未公布该设备的销量，但多家第三方信源估计，该设备的出货量范围在 500-1000 万台的水平。 OCULUS QUEST 2 Since its release in 2020, total sales have exceeded US$ 1 billion, and no official announcement has been made on the sale of the equipment, but many third party sources estimate the volume of the equipment to be in the range of 5-10 million units. 由于 OCULUS QUEST 2 是消费级 VR，现阶段消费级 VR 的主要应用场景是 VR 游戏，所以我们通过全球最大的游戏分发平台 Steam 可以粗略窥得 Meta 公司在消费级 VR 的市场占有率： Because OCULUS QUEST 2 is the consumer level VR, the main application of the consumer level VR at this stage is the VR game, we can get a rough look at the market share of Meta at the consumer level VR through the biggest game distribution platform in the world: 49.02 % 。 在现阶段，似乎 Meta 做得还不错，但 Meta 的 CEO 扎克伯格在今年第一季财报公布的电话会议中警告投资者，由于对元宇宙的布局，Meta 在去年的整体利润减少 100 亿美元，并且预计未来几年对于 Reality Labs 的投资规模还将继续扩大。 At this stage, it seems that Meta is doing well, but Meta's CEO Zuckerberg warned investors at a teleconferencing announced in the first quarter of this year's financial report that, as a result of the layout of the meta-cosmos, Meta's overall profits have been reduced by $10 billion last year, 换句话说，Meta 认为自己在元宇宙上的发力还远远不够，他们将在这方面投入更大的资源。 In other words, Meta believes that its energy in the meta-cosmos is far from sufficient and that they will invest more resources in this area. 为什么 Meta 如此孤注一掷？ Why is Meta so desperate? 因为现阶段，Meta 的收入结构非常单薄，抗风险程度很低，根据 Meta 财报我们可以发现，Meta 主要收入来源只有一项：Advertising（广告）。 Because, at this stage, the income structure of 光光这一项收入能占总收入的 90% 以上。 This income alone accounts for more than 90 per cent of total income. 这样的营收，是有边际的，与国内的百度类似，他们都在为广告营收的增长有限而发愁，在二级市场上，他们因此被看做是： These are marginal, similar to the hundreds in the country, and they are all upset by the limited growth in advertising. In the secondary market, they are seen as: “没有未来的公司。” "There is no future company." 为了破局，百度选择了 All in AI。 In order to break the game, 100 degrees chose All in AI. 而 Meta，选择了 All in 元宇宙。 And Meta, chose all in the meta-cosmos. 我们很难确定 Meta 能否成功。 It's hard for us to be sure that Meta will succeed. 但，做这样一场万亿级别市场的豪赌。 But do this kind of a trillion-grade bet. 无论成与不成，依然是值得敬佩的。 Whether it is or not, it is still admirable. 本文来自微信公众号：李大大饼（ID：gh_61ffff75b09f），作者：Alex，编辑：大饼
扎克伯格身后的所有东西都是元宇宙虚拟的 图源：Meta
发表评论