很久没打开文档了，面对空白页总不知从何下笔。然而，我确实怀念那种自由挥洒文字的感觉。可惜，近来这样的机会并不多。所以，我给自己设限一小时，在这六十分钟里，任思绪流转，笔下生花，最终将所思所想化作文字。没有网络的纷扰，没有外界的干扰，只有一张白纸和流逝的时间（其实，你现在看到的标题，是我最后一刻才决定的。起初，连我自己都不确定会写些什么）。
It's been a long time since the document was opened and the blank pages were written. However, I do miss the feeling of free circulation of the text. Unfortunately, there have been few such opportunities recently. So, I set myself an hour, in these 60 minutes, to allow my thoughts to flow, to write flowers, and eventually to write what I think. No Internet disturbance, no outside interference, only a white paper and a passing time (in fact, the title you see now is my last moment). At first, I didn't even know what I would write.
近期的加密货币市场颇为萧条，山寨币在过去三个月里不断下跌，而比特币也一直停滞不前。我预计，这种低迷状态将延续整个夏季，直到 8 月，随着以太坊 ETF 的推出、总统选举的筹备工作以及潜在的降息政策，市场才可能迎来复苏。不过，这仅是我的个人看法，仅供参考。
The recent crypto-currency market has been rather depressed, the mountain coins have been falling for the last three months, and the bitcoin has been stagnant. I expect that this depression will continue throughout the summer until August, when markets may recover with the launch of Ether Ether ETF, preparations for the presidential election, and potential interest-reduction policies.
近期，我的活动相对有限。除了持有 ETH，通过 Pendle 和 Gearbox 参与一些收益 Farming，以及签订了众多天使投资协议外，坦白说，我并没有涉足太多其他事务。交易变得异常艰难，市场上几乎所有的空投项目都遭遇了抛售，只有极少数例外，比如 ENA 自 TGE 以来上涨了大约 50%。我们正处在一个全新的市场环境中。我在之前的几篇简报中已经讨论过低流通量、高 FDV 的代币问题。
In recent times, my activities have been relatively limited. With the exception of holding ETH, participating in some of the benefits of Farming through Pendle and Gearbox, and entering into a number of angel investment agreements, I have frankly not been involved in much of the other business. Transactions have become extremely difficult, and almost all of the air-drop projects in the market have been sold, with very few exceptions, such as the ENA, which has risen by about 50% since TGE. We are in a completely new market environment.
与 2021 年和 2022 年相比，过去一年推出的代币在 TGE 之后几乎没有出现价格波动，这种现象已经不复存在。正如 Cobie 在他最新的 Substack 文章中所述，这些代币的价格波动实际上发生在私人阶段。因此，除非你是项目创始人、风险投资家、天使投资人、有内部联系的交易者或 KOL，否则你会发现这一轮牛市异常艰难。当然，也有一些例外情况，比如 2023 年 10 月至 2024 年 3 月整体是一个不错的时期，如果你早期参与了一些新兴的 meme 币，也同样能获得收益。但除此之外，大多数人可能都会认同，这是他们经历过的最艰难的牛市之一。
Compared to 2021 and 2022, there have been few price fluctuations after TGE in the past year, and this is no longer the case. As Cobie said in his latest Substack article, these price fluctuations actually occur in the private sector. So unless you are a project founder, a venture investor, an angel investor, an inside-connected dealer or a KOL, you will find it extremely difficult. There are, of course, some exceptions, such as the period of October 2023 to March 2024 as a whole, and if you were involved in some of the emerging meme coins at an early stage, you would also be reaping the benefits.
有趣的是，即便是资深的 OG 们似乎也未能充分利用他们的优势。以 Hsaka 为例，即便他是市场中的关键角色，但我们似乎只在市场容易操作时才目睹他的身影。Ansem 的情况也类似，看起来似乎有些迷失方向。然而，我们真的应该责怪他吗？归根结底，我们自己要对我们购买什么、何时卖出以及进行何种交易负责。虽然，KOL 会制造 FOMO 现象，但最终，决定如何管理资金的人仍然还是我们自己。
Interestingly, even senior OGs do not seem to take full advantage of them. In the case of Hsaka, even if he is a key player in the market, we seem to see him only when the market is easy to operate. The case of Ansem seems to be similar.
在 2023 年和 2024 年初，我大部分时间都沉浸在各种交易界面中，无论是 PvP 终端、Tweetdeck/X Pro，还是 Telegram 的 alpha 聊天群。然而最近，我对市场采取了更为从容的态度。这主要是因为除了短线交易之外，其他交易方向似乎都难以为继（几周前关于 ETH ETF 的传闻算是个例外）。这种情况让我回想起 2022 年 5 月 Terra 崩溃之后，当时市场一片沉寂，我们不得不回归现实生活。尽管我看到了与那时的一些相似之处，但我依然认为 DeFi 正在迎来新的复兴。
In 2023 and early 2024, I spent most of my time immersed in various trade interfaces, whether PvP terminals, Tweetdeck/XPro, or the Alpha chat group of Telegram. Recently, however, I took a more comfortable approach to the market. This is mainly because, with the exception of short-line transactions, it seems difficult to continue (except for a few weeks of rumours about ETH ETF). This reminds me of the collapse of Terra in May 2022, when the market collapsed and we had to go back to real life. Although I saw some similarities, I still think that DeFi is on the verge of a new revival.
当我期待着传统 DeFi 的回归时，Farming 积分和空投狩猎似乎已经演变成了 DeFi 的新形态。例如，Ethena 项目允许你提前三个月锁定 USDe，然后在随后的空投中获得收益。当时很少有人预见到 Ethena 会迅速变得如此受欢迎。我希望自己当时能更好地把握这样的机会，而目前有一个名为 Usual 的新稳定币协议，给我带来了相似的期待。他们目前正在进行私人阶段的运作，同样提供了很高的 APR。重点是，他们是否能够像 Ethena 一样，精准地把握市场时机（他们的空投计划定于 10 月进行）。
As I look forward to the return of the traditional DeFi, Farming and Airdrop Hunts seem to have evolved into a new form of DeFi. The Ethena project, for example, allows you to lock up USDE three months in advance and then reap the benefits of the subsequent airdrop. Few people at that time anticipated that Ethena would soon become so popular.
我依然坚信这是加密货币领域最关键也最实用的应用场景。它提供了一种可能性，就是将资金存储于个人钱包，完全不会受到网络的限制，并且能在瞬息之间将资金发送至世界任何角落。目前，市场上已经出现了一些带有收益的稳定币，例如 Ethena、Open Eden、Usual 等。尽管这些稳定币的收益稳定性和可靠性仍有待商榷，但我们显然已经超越了 Terra 的 UST 时期。以 Open Eden 为例，这是一个由国债支撑的稳定币协议，能带来大约 5% 的年化净收益。回想上一轮牛市高峰时，Terra UST 的市值曾达到 200 亿美元，而 Ethena 目前的市值仅为 30 亿美元。我非常期待看到这些稳定币能发展到何种规模，或者是否有其他协议能够挑战它们的地位。
I remain convinced that this is the most critical and practical application in the area of crypto-currency. It offers the possibility of storing funds in personal wallets, completely free of cyber restrictions, and sending them to any corner of the world in a short time. There are now some stable currencies in the market, such as Ethena, Open Eden, Usual, and so on. While the stability of earnings and reliability of these stable currencies is still open, it is clear that we have gone beyond the period of Terra’s UST. In the case of Open Eden, this is a stable currency agreement supported by national debt, with an annual net gain of about 5%.
我有一个梦想，那就是在这轮牛市结束后（也许在下一轮熊市的低谷期），我们能够拥有一种既像 USDT/USDC 那样安全，又能提供至少 5% 可持续收益的稳定币。这个市场无疑具有巨大的潜力，想想华尔街和那些投资者持有的债券就知道了。首要的一步是确保这种稳定币的绝对安全性，希望我们能得到像 Larry Fink 和 Blackrock 这样的金融巨头的支持。
I have a dream that, at the end of this cow market (perhaps at the low end of the next round of bear), we can have a stable currency that is as safe as USDT/USDC and provides at least 5% of sustainable returns. There is no doubt that this market has great potential, considering the bonds held by Wall Street and those investors. The first step is to ensure the absolute security of this stable currency, hoping that we can get the support of financial giants like Larry Fink and Blackrock.
在这轮牛市中，我对 EigenLayer、Pendle、Gearbox、Hivemapper 以及体育博彩和预测市场协议充满期待。我怀念上一轮牛市中那些高收益的挖矿项目，比如在 Fantom 链上的 TOMB，它充满了投机性和高风险。尽管目前市场上仍有一些类似的投机项目，但它们的 TVL 并不高，且受欢迎程度有限。
In this bull market, I look forward to EigenLayer, Pendle, Gearbox, Hivemapper, and sports lottery and forecast market agreements. I miss the most lucrative mining projects in the last round of cattle, such as the Tomb on the Fantom chain, which is full of speculation and high risks.
总体而言，我更倾向于支持那些具有创新性的产品，因为我对 Pendle 和 EigenLayer 的众多分叉版本的必要性持怀疑态度。同时，我也在认真考虑启动自己的项目，尽管这还只是一个初步的想法。如果你是开发者，并且对此感兴趣，请随时与我联系。
In general, I prefer to support innovative products, because I have doubts about the need for numerous split versions of Pendle and EigenLayer. At the same time, I am seriously thinking about starting my own project, even though it's just a preliminary idea. If you're a developer and you're interested in it, please contact me at all times.
由于市场最近的低迷，我得以抽出更多时间沉浸在阅读中。让我来分享一些我最近正在阅读的书籍。
Because of the market's recent lowness, I have been able to take more time to read. Let me share some of the books I've been reading recently.
我阅读的书籍主要涵盖了哲学、经济学和生活技巧等领域。此外，由于过去一年半里我逐渐涉足了风险投资，因此也打算阅读这类书籍。
I read books mainly in the fields of philosophy, economics and life skills. Moreover, as I have been involved in venture capital over the past year and a half, I intend to read them.
在向投资者进行推介时，理解几个与风险基金结构相关的核心术语至关重要。
In presenting to investors, it is important to understand several core terms related to the risk fund structure.
请查看下方的图表，接下来我们将在文本中详细讨论这些术语。
Please look at the chart below, and we will then discuss these terms in detail in the text.
风险基金是一笔专门用于投资初创企业的资金，俗称为「dry powder」，它是主要的投资工具。每个基金作为一个有限合伙企业，依据合伙协议在大约 7 至 10 年的周期内进行管理。
Risk funds are funds dedicated to investing in start-ups, commonly known as "dry powerer", which is the main investment instrument. Each fund is managed as a limited partnership under a partnership agreement over a period of about 7 to 10 years.
该基金在这一期间的单一目标是盈利，主要通过两种方式实现：
The single objective of the Fund for this period is to be profitable, mainly through the and :
· 基金回报的业绩提成，通常约为 20%。
:: Performance in return for the Fund is generally approximately 20 per cent.
· 管理费，通常约为 2%。
• Management fees, usually around 2 per cent.
这就解释了为什么你听说过 2/20 模式。
That explains why you've heard of 2/20 mode.
管理公司，也就是风险投资公司，负责风险基金的日常运营。它不同于风险基金本身，是由公司合伙人建立的业务实体。
The managing firm, the venture capital company, is responsible for the day-to-day operation of the venture funds. Unlike the venture funds themselves, it is a business entity established by corporate partners.
管理公司利用收到的管理费来支付公司运营的成本，包括租金、员工工资等。这些管理费用于支持基金的部署和增长。
The management company uses the management fees received to cover the costs of the company’s operations, including rent, employee salaries, etc. These administrative costs support the deployment and growth of the fund.
风险投资经理只有在有限合伙人获得回报之后，才能获得业绩提成。
The risk investment manager will be able to achieve a performance outcome only if the limited partners receive a return.
GP，即普通合伙人，是管理公司的核心成员，负责主导和监督风险基金的运作。GP 可能是大型风投公司的资深合伙人，也可能是独立的个人投资者。
The GP, the ordinary partner, is a core member of the management company and is responsible for leading and supervising the operations of the risk fund. The GP may be a senior partner in a large winding company or an independent individual investor.
GP 的职责包括筹集和运作风险基金、制定投资决策、评估潜在的投资机会、代表基金招募团队、协助投资组合公司实现退出，并决定如何有效运用他们所管理的资金。总的来说，GP 的角色可以概括为两项关键任务，一是向有潜力的优质企业投资，二是为基金筹集更多资本。
GP’s responsibilities include raising and operating risk funds, making investment decisions, assessing potential investment opportunities, recruiting teams on behalf of the Fund, assisting portfolio companies to exit and deciding how to effectively use the funds they manage. Overall, the role of the GP can be summarized as two key tasks, one to invest in potentially high-quality enterprises and the other to raise additional capital for the Fund.
GP 的报酬来源于基金的业绩提成和管理费。例如，如果业绩提成比例设定为 20%，那么基金利润的 20% 将作为 GP 的报酬。
For example, if performance is proportionally set at 20%, 20% of the Fund’s profits will be remunerated as GP.
风险基金的实际资金来源是有限合伙人（LP），他们是基金背后的资金支柱。LP 通常包括以下类型的机构投资者：
The actual sources of funding for venture funds are limited partners (LPs), which are the backbone of the fund. LPs typically include institutional investors of the following types:
· 大学捐赠基金
:: University Endowment Fund
· 养老基金
:: Pension fund
· 主权基金
:: Sovereign funds
· 保险公司
:: Insurance companies
· 基金会
:: Foundations
· 家族办公室
• Family office
· 高净值个人
:: High net worth individuals
风险基金的核心资产是其投资组合公司，这些公司是初创企业，它们通过接受风险基金的投资来换取优先股。虽然具体要求因基金而异，但获得风险投资的公司通常需要满足以下条件：
The core assets of the venture funds are its portfolio companies, which are start-ups, which receive investments from the venture funds in exchange for priority shares. While the specific requirements vary from fund to fund, companies receiving venture capital typically have to meet the following conditions:
· 他们应在具有广阔潜力的市场中运营
• They should operate in markets with great potential
· 实现了产品与市场的契合
:: Compatibility of products and markets is achieved
· 拥有深受客户喜爱的卓越产品
• Having an excellent product that is very popular with clients
· 展现出强劲的经济效益，并具备为投资者带来显著回报的潜力
:: Demonstrate strong economic benefits and have the potential to generate significant returns for investors
这里是一些最大的加密风险投资公司列表。
Here's the list of some of the largest encrypted venture capital companies.
天使投资通常指的是在风险投资之前更早期的阶段进行投资，并且天使投资者往往独立操作，开出的支票规模相对较小。这种投资行为主要发生在企业的「前种子」或「种子」轮，也就是在产品或服务尚未成型，或在其发展初期。天使投资虽然风险较大，因为大多数初创企业可能无法持续发展，但它同样提供了巨大的潜在回报，如果投资的公司能够成功成长。
Angel investments usually refer to investments at an earlier stage before venture capital, and angel investors tend to operate independently and issue cheques on a relatively small scale. Such investments take place mainly in the “pre-seed” or “seed” wheels of an enterprise, i.e., before products or services have taken shape, or in the early stages of its development. Angel investments, though risky, may not be sustainable because most start-ups may not be able to develop, offer the same great potential return if the company that invests is able to grow successfully.
我对天使投资领域充满热情，原因在于这里不论出身，一个人可以通过投入时间、努力和持续的行动，在 1 至 3 年内成为该领域内影响别人的人。这个领域新颖且充满活力，即便没有顶尖学府的背景，你也能通过不断尝试、犯错和保持好奇心，成为专家。
I am passionate about the field of angel investment because, regardless of origin, a person can be someone who influences others in one to three years by investing in time, effort and sustained action. This field is new and dynamic, and you can be an expert by constantly trying, making mistakes and keeping curious.
要探讨这个问题，让我们回到故事的起点。涉足加密货币之前，我曾是股市的一员，专注于股票交易及生活质量提升。2019 年 1 月，我创建了 Twitter 账号，主要分享这些内容。在 Twitter 之前，我还运营着一个博客，讨论投资话题，并撰写过一些新闻稿（这些稿件现在已经删除）。2021 年，我辞去了朝九晚五的工作，几个月之后全职投身于加密货币领域。起初，我只是在 Binance 上随机投资 NFTs、DeFi 项目和一些小众币种。但随着我持续分享自己的见解，我开始收到参与交易的机会。起初，我因缺乏经验而婉拒了这些机会，但很快我意识到，许多比我更缺乏经验的人已经参与其中。
Before Twitter, I also ran a blog to discuss the subject of investment and wrote some press releases (these texts have now been deleted). In 2021, I resigned from the nine-to-five job and, months later, spent my full time in the area of encryption money. Initially, I just invested randomly on Binance NFTS, the DeFi project and a few small coins. But as I kept sharing my opinions, I began to get the opportunity to get involved. At first, I turned down these opportunities for lack of experience, but quickly realized that many of the more inexperienced people were already involved.
这段经历让我认识到，尽管我起初对加密货币知之甚少，但通过学习和实践，我能够逐渐积累经验，并在这一领域找到自己的位置。
That experience made me realize that, although I initially had little knowledge of encrypted currency, through learning and practice, I was able to accumulate experience and find my place in this field.
众所周知，我是一位 KOL，尽管我不太喜欢这个称呼。在 Twitter 上拥有 30 万粉丝和 Substack 上拥有 3 万订阅者，因此许多项目的创始人会联系我，问我是否愿意投资他们的项目，通常没有任何附加条件。不过，有一个不成文的规则，就是你应该为该项目发布一些内容，这完全有道理。项目获得曝光 → 人们开始关注 → 更多人购买 → 价格上涨。
As you know, I'm a KOL, although I don't like it very much. With 300,000 followers on Twitter and 30,000 subscribers on Substack, many of the founders of the project will contact me and ask me if I want to invest in their project, usually without any additional conditions. But there is an unwritten rule that you should publish something for the project, which makes perfect sense.
因此，我认为这一轮中 KOL 轮次更多，因为许多创始人觉得 VC 贡献不大。是的，他们确实有网络资源，但通常没有庞大的受众。而 KOL 则拥有庞大的受众，通常也有坚实的网络资源。因此，许多 VC 也转型成了半 KOL，以便分更多的利益。老实说，我并不责怪他们。
So I think there are more KOLs in this round, because many of the founders feel that VCs don't make much of a difference. Yes, they do have network resources, but they usually don't have a large audience. KOL has a large audience, usually a solid network resource. So, many VCs have also turned into half KOL, in order to share more benefits. I honestly, I don't blame them.
基本上，我是顺着自己的好奇心，涉足了 Crypto 和 Web3 领域的多个领域。我不会称自己为任何领域的专家，而是一个全方位的人，对很多主题都有所了解。如果我自己没有答案，我会利用我在该领域的网络资源来找到答案。许多机会都是在别人看到我写的或发的内容后，主动联系我才有的。不过，我确实认为在某些方面我有一定的优势。在 DeFi 领域，我个人对交易 DEX、稳定币协议和收益叙事，如 EigenLayer、Pendle、Gearbox、Mellow、Symbiotic 等类型项目最感兴趣。我也对交易非常着迷，无论是在 CEX 还是 DEX。我的梦想是有一天能有一个能与 Binance/Bybit 竞争的对手，因此我也喜欢与那些有此目标的团队合作。我在营销方面也有优势，我知道作为 KOL 哪些方法有效，哪些无效。
Basically, I follow my curiosity and go into many areas of Crypto and Web3. I don't call myself an expert in any field, but a full-fledged person, who knows many subjects. If I don't have an answer, I'll use my web resources in this area to find answers. Many of the opportunities are in touch with me when people see what I write or send. But I do think I have a certain advantage in some areas. In DeFi, I personally have an advantage in dealing with DEX, stabilization agreements and profit narratives, such as EigenLayer, Pendle, Gearbox, Mellow, Symbiotic, and so on. I also have an interest in dealings, whether in CEX or DEX. My dream is to have an opponent who can compete with Binance/Bybit, so I like to work with teams with these goals.
在 Crypto 领域，拥有专业的细分市场知识或建立强大的个人品牌至关重要。理想情况是能够两者兼具，这样带来的效果最好。
In the area of Crypto, it is essential to have a professional segmented market knowledge or to create a strong personal brand. Ideally, both can be combined, with the best results.
那些拥有显著个人品牌或庞大受众基础的天使投资者之所以能够表现出色，是因为企业看重他们的支持，这不仅提升了信誉，还有助于产品的推广和分发。当信誉良好的个人与企业站在一起时，这种联合本身就传递了积极的信号，有助于传播企业的产品或服务。
Angel investors, who have a significant personal brand or large audience base, are able to do so because businesses value their support, which not only enhances their credibility, but also contributes to the dissemination and distribution of their products. When individuals of good standing stand with the business, the union itself sends a positive signal that they can spread the company’s products or services.
此外，当创始人在推介材料中提及他们的投资者名单时，若看到你的名字，这本身就是一个强有力的信任指标。例如，如果你看到 Cobie 也在推荐这个项目，那么许多人可能会不假思索地就选择投资，即使没有进行深入的尽职调查。毕竟，如果一个项目能吸引到 Cobie 这样的知名人士，它对你来说也应该是个不错的选择。
Moreover, when the founders mention their list of investors in their presentation material, it is a strong indicator of trust in itself. For example, if you see that Cobie is also recommending the project, many people may choose to invest, even without conducting in-depth due diligence. After all, if a project attracts a prominent figure like Cobie, it should also be a good option for you.
当我考虑是否进行一项交易时，时机无疑是一个关键因素。我需要仔细评估交易条件，包括我们当前的市场状况，以及对未来 3 个月、6 个月、12 个月乃至 2-3 年的市场预期。考虑到归属时间表可能较长，这一点尤其重要。
When I think about whether or not to make a transaction, the timing is undoubtedly a key factor. I need to carefully assess the terms of the deal, including our current market situation, as well as the expectations of the market for the next three months, six months, 12 months, and even two to three years. This is particularly important given the likely length of the schedule of attribution.
我还会深入考虑团队是否在开发具有创新性和市场契合度的产品，以及这些产品是否具有可持续性。我会探究它们将如何与市场叙事相结合，以及哪些风险投资公司可能参与其中。接下来，我会与我信任的网络中的人进行交流，了解他们的看法，包括为什么某些风险投资朋友没有参与，或者他们为何没有更大规模地投资。
I will also consider in depth whether the teams are developing innovative and market-friendly products, and whether they are sustainable. I will explore how they will be integrated with market narratives, and which venture capital companies may be involved. Next, I will interact with people in the network I trust to understand their views, including why some venture friends are not involved, or why they are not investing on a larger scale.
我还会考虑竞争对手的情况，评估当前的 TVL 以及未来的潜力。此外，我需要问自己，在激励计划结束后，这个协议是否能够独立维持，还是会被市场抛弃。这些问题都是决策过程中不可或缺的部分。
I will also look at competitors and assess the current TVL and potential for the future. Moreover, I need to ask myself whether, after the end of the stimulus program, the agreement will be maintained independently or the market will be abandoned. These issues are an essential part of the decision-making process.
我已经概述了风险投资公司的职能以及对天使投资的基础理解。这里是 Ben Roy 对天使投资更深入的见解：
I've outlined the functions of venture capital and the basic understanding of angel investment. Here's Ben Roy's insight into angel investment:
作为对这个话题的总结，我想分享一段我特别喜欢的话，出自 @DCbuild3r 最近关于天使投资的文章：
As a summary of this topic, I would like to share a statement that I particularly like, from a recent article by @DCbuld3r on Angel Investment:
「社交资本的累积效应与你金融资本的增长同样强大，甚至可能更有影响力。我相信，在任何职业追求中，无论是销售、技术开发、学术研究还是慈善事业，社交资本都是专业成功的关键驱动力。拥有一个由多才多艺的朋友组成的网络至关重要，他们不仅拥有广泛的人脉、资本和新见解，还有智慧和能力去引发变革。如果你与这样的人群成为朋友，你们将能够携手真正地改善这个世界。」
"The cumulative effect of social capital is as strong as the growth of your financial capital, and may even be more influential. I believe that social capital is a key driver of professional success in any career pursuit, whether it be sales, technological development, academic research or philanthropy. It is essential to have a network of multi-skilled friends who have not only a wide range of people, capital and new ideas, but also the wisdom and ability to trigger change. If you become friends with people like this, you will be able to work together to truly improve the world."
这就是今天的全部。
That's all for today.
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