导读：世界黄金协会指出，在黄金被用于支撑货币时，金价涨幅基本与通胀率相同。布雷顿森林体系在上世纪70年代崩溃后，黄金平均每年升值 10%。虽然金价在上世纪 70 年代后期快速上涨,但金价波动性在过去四十年里一直相当温和。
Illustrating: The World Gold Association notes that when gold is used to support the currency, the increase in gold prices is roughly the same as the inflation rate. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, gold rose by an average of 10 per cent per year. Although gold prices rose rapidly in the late 1970s, gold price volatility has remained relatively moderate over the past four decades.
而比特币的波动幅度之大有目共睹。世界黄金协会认为，高波动性有利于寻找极高投资收益的投资者，但这并不是货币的特性，更不用说将其作为保值工具。
Bitcoin’s volatility is evident. The World Gold Association believes that high volatility is good for investors looking for very high returns on investment, but it is not a monetary feature, let alone a value-serving tool.
来源丨21世纪经济报道（ID：jjbd21）
Source: Economic Report for the 21st Century (ID:jjbd21)
记者丨王晓 北京报道
图片来源/ 图虫创意
Image Source/ Imagine
2017年，金价上涨13%，这已经是十分可观的涨幅，但同期比特币则上涨13倍。
In 2017, gold prices rose by 13 per cent, which is already a significant increase, but by 13 times in Bitcoin during the same period.
虚拟币的风头强劲，拥趸们甚至称其可以取代黄金。即便在监管部门强力整顿下，疯狂上涨的虚拟币价格仍然诱使一些投资人铤而走险。
Virtual coins are strong, and crowds even claim that they can replace gold. Even with strong regulatory consolidation, the insanely rising prices of virtual coins continue to induce some investors to take risks.
2月7日，比特币价格在8000美元/枚区间浮动，相较其2017年12月中旬近20000美元/枚的历史高点，不到两个月时间下跌六成。21世纪经济报道记者了解到，在央行等七部委去年9月联合发布《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》后，包括比特币在内的虚拟币交易至此逐渐死灰复燃。
On 7 February, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $8,000/blocks, down by 60% in less than two months from its historic high of nearly $20,000/mere in mid-December 2017. Economic reporters for the twenty-first century learned that virtual currency transactions, including bitcoin, had been re-emerged since the Central Bank and seven ministries issued a joint announcement in September last year on the risk of financing the issuance of coins.
普遍的规避方式是，一些虚拟币交易平台声称遵守国内法律关闭相应服务，但将注册地更换到国外后仍然主要针对境内投资者提供服务。
A general way of circumvention is for some virtual currency trading platforms to claim compliance with domestic laws to close down the corresponding services, but to replace their places of registration abroad and remain primarily for domestic investors.
近日，世界黄金协会发布报告明确表态，虚拟加密币不可能取代黄金。并指当前加密币更多被作为一种投机性来交易和持有。由于其流动性稀缺，目前价格动态吸引众多投资者，但似乎更多是高收益预期推动。
In recent days, the World Gold Association has issued a report in which it is clear that virtual encrypted currency cannot replace gold. It also means that currently encrypted currency is more often traded and held as speculative.
交易平台明赴海外暗度陈仓
trading platform
尽管相较价格最高点已经出现大幅下跌，但相较于央行等七部委联合整顿之际的价格，比特币价格仍有八成左右的涨幅。
Although there has been a significant drop in the price peak, bitcoin prices are still about 80 per cent higher than prices at a time when seven ministries, including the central bank, are collapsing together.
一位区块链行业资深人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，在七部委联合整顿下，一些交易平台声称关闭相关服务，但转而将服务器注册在海外继续开展业务，其目标客户仍然集中在国内，甚至交易方面更加便捷。
A senior member of the block chain industry said to the 21st Century economic reporter that, under a combination of seven ministries, some trading platforms claimed to shut down services, but instead registered servers to continue their operations abroad, and their target clients remained concentrated domestically and even more easily traded.
中国互联网金融协会在近日再度就境外ICO与“虚拟货币”交易风险进行提示，互金协会指出，监测发现，境内有部分机构或个人还在组织开展所谓的币币交易和场外交易，并配之以做市商、担保商等服务，这实质还是属于“虚拟货币”交易场所，与现行政策规定明显不符。在这些相关交易中，有部分国内社交平台为“虚拟货币”集中交易提供各种便利，一些非银行支付机构为“虚拟货币”交易提供支付服务。
The Internet Finance Association of China (IFA) has recently issued another reminder of the risks of dealing with “virtual currency” in ICOs abroad. The Association notes that monitoring has found that some agencies or individuals in the country are also organizing so-called currency transactions and off-the-shelf transactions, accompanied by services such as market and guarantors, which are essentially “virtual currency” trading sites, which are clearly inconsistent with existing policy provisions. In these related transactions, some domestic social networking platforms facilitate centralized transactions in “virtual currency” and a number of non-bank payment agencies provide payment services for “virtual currency” transactions.
2月2日，币安交易平台公告称，不再为中国大陆地区用户提供服务。但圈内人士介绍，通过一定的外挂设置，照样可以正常使用其服务。而火币、OKCoin等则保留了原注册账户，只是服务器注册地分别迁往塞舌尔、伯利兹等偏远国家。登录后，提供法币交易和币币交易乃至杠杆交易，其中法币交易支持支付宝、微信支付等方式付款，实际上仍然在提供虚拟币的交易撮合。
On 2 February, the currency exchange platform announced that it would no longer serve users in mainland China. However, insiders suggested that they could use their services normally through some kind of exterior set-up.
上述不愿具名的行业资深人士认为，目前虚拟币的估值没有标准，尽管在发现虚拟币的过程中需要大量电力消耗、矿机成本乃至人力投入，但更多在于参与者对其预期以及炒作资金涌入带来的上涨。“正因如此，本身没有营收和利润等来源，价值基础比较虚，因此一旦有监管或者风吹草动都可能会引起大幅波动。”
According to the above-mentioned unnamed industry seniors, there are currently no criteria for the valuation of the virtual currency, and although large amounts of electricity consumption, mining costs, and even human investment are required in the discovery of the virtual currency, much more so is the rise in the expectations of the participants and the inflow of capital for the campaign. “This is why there is no source of revenue and profit in itself, and the value base is weak, and therefore there is a risk of significant volatility in the event of regulation or rashing.”
世界黄金协会指出，在黄金被用于支撑货币时，金价涨幅基本与通胀率相同。布雷顿森林体系在上世纪70年代崩溃后，黄金平均每年升值 10%。虽然金价在上世纪 70 年代后期快速上涨,但金价波动性在过去四十年里一直相当温和。
According to the World Gold Association, when gold is used to support the currency, the increase in gold prices is roughly the same as the inflation rate. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, gold rose by an average of 10% a year.
而比特币的波动幅度之大有目共睹。世界黄金协会认为，高波动性有利于寻找极高投资收益的投资者，但这并不是货币的特性，更不用说将其作为保值工具。此外，与黄金市场每天约2500亿美元的交易量相比，比特币平均每天交易额为20亿美元。而且虚拟币的交易没有清晰的双向市场，缺少进行大规模做空的流动性市场特性。
The World Gold Association believes that high volatility is good for investors looking for very high returns on investment, but it is not a monetary feature, let alone a tool for saving value. Moreover, the average daily transaction value of Bitcoins is $2 billion, compared to the gold market’s roughly $250 billion a day.
建议配置黄金保护购买力
proposes to allocate gold to protect purchasing power
黄金被作为资产持有已达7000年历史，也长期被作为货币使用。在金本位之后，仍然被各国央行、机构投资者和零售投资者持有。
Gold has been held as an asset for 7,000 years, and has also been used as a currency for a long time. After the gold standard, it is still held by central banks, institutional investors, and retail investors.
世界黄金协会指出，黄金交易在全球拥有广泛授权且受到监管。而虚拟币的交易则存在资本外逃、洗钱、恐怖融资以及铸币税损失等问题。而根据美国国税局（IRS）规定，虚拟币被定性为投资资产适用于资本利得税，每一笔虚拟币交易视为一次资产出售，如果零售商使用虚拟币作为支付手段的话将会变得十分复杂。其更多作为一种投机性投资被交易和持有。
According to the World Gold Association, gold deals are widely authorized and regulated globally. Virtual currency transactions involve capital flight, money laundering, terrorist financing, and loss of the casting tax.
“这些交易所的交易量非常大，每天的手续费惊人，但这些营收都不用交税。这点很重要。”业内人士指出。
“These exchanges have a very large volume of transactions, and their daily fees are staggering, but they don't pay taxes. That's important.” Industry people say.
在币圈一个个造富神话背后，幸运的只是极少数。
Underneath the myth of wealth in the currency circles, fortunately only a few.
上述行业资深人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，的确有一些炒币者大赚千万实现财务自由，财务自由则意味着他们套现为法币落袋为安。而这些人，主要是坐庄项目方和一些炒币的大户，因为其具有信息优势。“现在进去的基本都是被割韭菜的。”
According to the above-mentioned senior industry reporter for the 21st century economy, there are indeed a number of those who make millions of dollars in financial freedom, and financial freedom means that they are set up as French. These people, mainly on the side of the project and some of the large families that do so, because of their information advantages.
世界黄金协会最新统计显示，2017年全球黄金需求下滑7%至4071.7吨，创下八年低位。主要原因在于，流入黄金ETF的资金大幅缩水。而2017年，美国股市不断走高吸引投资者资金配置中更多流向股市。不过，这并不妨碍黄金成为资产配置中的重要组成部分。
The World Gold Association’s latest statistics show that global gold demand fell by 7 to 4071.7 tons in 2017, reaching an eight-year low. The main reason is that the flow of funds into the gold ETF has declined significantly.
世界黄金协会中国区董事总经理王立新对21世纪经济报道记者表示，黄金一直是投资组合中重要的多元化投资标的，其价格影响因素复杂，但其可以保护投资者购买力。仍然建议投资者根据自身需求在资产中配置5%-15%的黄金，尤其在当前打破刚性兑付的要求下不失为一种稳健的选择。
According to Wang Lixin, Director-General of the World Gold Association’s China Region, for economic reporting in the twenty-first century, gold has always been an important subject of diversified investment in the portfolio, and its price implications are complex, but they protect investors’ purchasing power. Investors are still advised to allocate 5-15% of their assets according to their needs, especially under the current requirements of breaking rigidity.
（编辑：李伊琳，邮箱，liyil@21jingji.com）
(ed.: Lee Elin, Mailbox, Lyil@21jingji.com)
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