近期，受外围市场汇率波动、自身稀缺性等因素影响，比特币再度上演了一波价格疯涨行情，各方买家对虚拟货币的炒作热情重新点燃。相关交易平台数据显示，从5月底至6月中旬，比特币价格涨幅达62.8%，最近几天价格开始大幅下调，6月交易量环比增长约五倍。
Recently, as a result of factors such as exchange rate fluctuations in peripheral markets and their own scarcity, Bitcoin has re-emerged with a wave of price booms, and buyers have rekindled their enthusiasm for virtual currency booms. According to trade platform data, the price of Bitcoin rose by 62.8% between the end of May and mid-June, with prices starting to drop sharply in recent days, with the volume of transactions increasing by about five times in June.
本轮由比特币带动的虚拟货币热潮，与其背后复杂的投资生态链条息息相关。由于杠杆机制的引入，一些虚拟货币炒作沦为了伪互联网金融平台实施庞氏骗局的方式，这也让虚拟货币的发展前景蒙上一层阴影。
This cycle of virtual currency booms, driven by bitcoins, is closely linked to the complex investment ecological chain behind it. As a result of the introduction of leverage mechanisms, some virtual currency booms have become a pseudo-Ponzi scheme by pseudo-Internet financial platforms, which has cast a shadow over the development prospects of virtual money.
不过，作为支撑虚拟货币的基础技术，区块链概念日益受到金融机构的重视。在资本市场上，已有上市公司开始砸下重金收购区块链技术相关项目，涉及区块链技术的相关概念板块受到资金追捧。
However, the block chain concept is receiving increasing attention from financial institutions as a basic technology to support virtual money. In capital markets, listed companies have started to break down technology-related projects in the gold-buying zone block chain, and the associated concept plates for block-chain technology are well received.
比特币炒作卷土重来
从2013年至2015年，一场以比特币为代表的虚拟货币炒作在争议中经历了从疯涨到暴跌的过山车行情，彼时价格从8000元人民币单币兑换“天价”暴跌至千元以内，价格蒸发90%以上。而仅仅在泡沫破裂后一年时间，虚拟货币的疯狂行情似乎又卷土重来。 Between 2013 and 2015, a virtual currency campaign – represented by bitcoin – went through a dispute over the mountain, where prices fell sharply from RMB 8,000 to within RMB 1,000, evaporating by more than 90%. In just one year after the bubble burst, the madness of virtual currency seems to have resurfaced.
国内一家比特币交易平台火币网的报价显示，从5月27日开始比特币行情启动，当时价位在3000元附近，仅22个交易日涨幅就达到62.8%。今年以来，比特币价格已上涨了78%，相比于去年1月最低位的900元涨幅高达445.6%。 The quotations from a domestic Bitcoin trading platform, the currency network, show that the Bitcoin campaign started on 27 May, when the price was close to $3,000, with only 22 transactions rising by 62.8 per cent a day, and that the price of Bitcoin has risen by 78 per cent since this year, up from the lowest 900 in January last year, by up to 445.6 per cent.
另一家比特币交易平台OKCoin数据分析称，6月20日，比特币价格盘中最高达到767.08美元，冲破5000元人民币，创2014年初以来新高。但随后几天，价格大幅下跌。相比5月交易量，6月比特币交易量整体上涨幅度接近五倍左右。 Another Bitcoin trading platform, the OKCoin data analysis, reported that on 20 June, the Bitcoin price plate was up to US$767.08, breaking 5,000 yuan, which had been high since the beginning of 2014. But prices fell sharply in the following days.
在比特币行情的造势下，其衍生市场也开始快速发展起来，效法比特币的其他另类虚拟货币共同组成了一个竞争激烈的江湖，炒作也随着市场的热度而不断升温。据了解，目前莱特币、以太币、夸克币、泽塔币等均是网络平台中比较流行的虚拟货币，存在一定数目的买家和跟风人群，且市值波动也非常频繁。 Under the influence of Bitcoin, its derivative market has also begun to grow rapidly, with other virtual currencies like Bitcoin forming a highly competitive river, and the frenzy continues to warm up with the heat of the market. It is known that Leitco, Etek, Quarco, Zetaco, among others, are now the more popular virtual currencies in the web platform, with a certain number of buyers and followers, and market value fluctuations are frequent.
对于此轮比特币疯涨的原因，上述交易平台负责人徐明星解释称，由于前期比特币和背后的区块链技术被世界各国广泛关注，金融机构都在探索区块链技术的应用，让比特币在世界范围内关注度越来越高。“目前很多玩家对比特币减半预期非常强烈，导致比特币价格出现大幅上涨。而价格上涨也吸引了更多买盘进场，进一步刺激了行情暴涨。” As to the reasons for the boom in Bitcoin, the head of the above-mentioned trading platform, Xu Star, explained that financial institutions are exploring the application of block-chain technology as a result of the widespread interest in the technology of the pre-bitcoin and the block chain behind it around the world, giving Bitcoin a growing interest in the world. “More players are now expected to halve bitcoin by half, leading to a sharp increase in bitcoin prices.
市场人士认为，当前从金融市场的现状来看，受全球经济增长缓慢、人民币和美元汇率波动等风险事件因素影响，多数机构都在积极寻找除了股票、债券、房地产等传统投资品之外的安全资产，而比特币等虚拟货币行情的出现也为一些高风险偏好的资金提供了投资出路，这令虚拟货币的炒作如星火燎原般快速点燃起来。 According to marketers, the current state of the financial markets is influenced by risk event factors such as slow global economic growth, exchange rate fluctuations in the renminbi and the dollar. Most institutions are actively looking for safe assets other than traditional investment items such as equities, bonds, real estate, etc. The emergence of virtual currency practices such as Bitcoin also provides an investment path for some high-risk preferences, which ignites virtual currency designs as fast as a spark.
暴涨暴跌风险大
无论是过去还是现在，虚拟货币疯涨行情的背后都离不开投资者的炒作。而相比2013年，以比特币为代表的虚拟货币市场，其背后的投资者生态更为多元和复杂。 In both the past and the present, virtual currency booms have been driven by investors who are more diverse and complex than the virtual currency market, which in 2013 was represented by bitcoin.
业内人士认为，随着国民财富的增加和资产投资标的逐渐丰富，中国投资者对有着明显“造富效应”的虚拟币市场青睐有加。数据显示，截至2013年年底，人民币交易量迅速占到整个比特币市场67%以上的份额，而这轮行情人民币交易量占比最高超过九成左右。火币网的数据显示，截至6月19日18时，该平台累计交易额已突破1.06万亿元。 According to industry sources, Chinese investors favor a virtual currency market that has a clear “rich effect” as national wealth increases and asset investment targets grow. The data show that, by the end of 2013, the renminbi trade had rapidly accounted for more than 67% of the entire Bitcoin market, and that this round of renminbi transactions had amounted to more than 90%.
从市场行情来看，近期短短20个交易日，炒作比特币似乎就能获得超过60%以上的收益，对投资者而言，和投资数额巨大的房地产市场以及波动起伏不断的股市相比，虚拟币市场更有吸引力。熟悉虚拟货币市场的人士分析，目前以人民币计价的比特币价格一直比海外市场高，意味着中国买家对比特币的需求十分旺盛，中国的比特币价格有至少10%的溢价。 In the light of market dynamics, it appears that more than 60% of the profits from the piping of bitcoins have been realized in the recent 20 short trading days, and that virtual currency markets are more attractive for investors than for investors, for real estate markets with huge investment volumes and volatile stock markets. People familiar with virtual money markets have analysed that the price of bitcoins, currently denominated in renminbi, has been higher than in overseas markets, implying that Chinese buyers have a strong demand for bitcoins, and that China’s price of bitcoins has a premium of at least 10%.
从虚拟货币的投资者生态来看，既有纯粹通过“挖矿”技术获得比特币的程序员玩家，也有从中实现炒作交易的庄家，以及一大波跟风投资的普通投资者。一位曾经参与虚拟货币炒作的投资者坦言，对于比特币交易本身的原理及涉及的技术风险等问题都不太熟悉，自己所理解的比特币交易实际上也是将其作为股票投资，看到盈利可观和疯涨的行情就跟风买进。 From the perspective of virtual money’s investor ecology, there are programmer players who get bitcoin exclusively through “mining” technology, as well as peddlers from which to make deals, and ordinary investors who have invested in large waves. An investor who has been involved in virtual money speculation has said that he is not familiar with the principles of the bitcoin transaction itself and the technological risks involved.
除比特币之外，一些其他类别的虚拟货币也受到广泛关注，在各类民间平台火热起来。某第三方虚拟币交易平台分析，由于受到比特币行情的影响，当前一些其他币种的虚拟货币平台交易量也出现明显上涨。由于差异化竞争格局的存在，当比特币出现高位横盘的时候，类似以太币、莱特币等虚拟币的行情就开始活跃，而部分总交易盘小的虚拟币，价格被买家资金炒高的情况更多。 In addition to Bitcoin, a number of other types of virtual currency have also received widespread attention and have become hot on various civil platforms. A third-party virtual currency trading platform analysis, influenced by bitcoin dynamics, has led to a marked increase in the volume of transactions in some other currencies.
不过，在火爆行情的背后，虚拟货币的炒作风险也令人担忧。一位比特币的资深玩家透露，每一轮行情的活跃都离不开杠杆交易，不少国内的比特币交易平台会为参与投资者提供杠杆业务。在杠杆效应下，行情炒作的速度加快，也会令比特币出现暴涨暴跌的价格走势，这种常态化的巨幅震荡往往令普通投资者难以承受。 A senior player in Bitcoin has revealed that every round of business is dynamic without leverage, and that a number of domestic Bitcoin trading platforms provide leverage for participating investors. Under the leverage, the speed of the campaign is accelerating, and it is likely that Bitcoin’s price booms and drops will follow.
同时，由于缺乏监管和合法性的认定，也有打着“虚拟货币理财”的幌子进行非法传销、非法集资的伪交易平台出现，让不少缺乏判断力的投资者入局受骗、个人财产受到损失，这也令虚拟币的炒作游走在监管的灰色地带。此外，虚拟货币交易平台的安全性也遭受拷问，一旦平台交易系统的防火墙被黑客攻破，留存在平台上的大量资金就会流失，虚拟货币价格也会因此波动，其风险因素令人担忧。 At the same time, in the absence of regulation and legitimacy, there are pseudo-trading platforms for illegal distribution under the guise of “virtual money-management” and the emergence of illegal capital-gathering, which allows a number of non-jurisdictional investors to enter and lose their personal property, which also leads to virtual currency peddling in the grey area of regulation. Moreover, the security of virtual money-trading platforms has been tortured, and once the firewall of the platform’s trading system has been hacked by hackers, large amounts of money retained on the platform will be lost, and virtual currency prices will fluctuate, with worrying risk factors.
区块链概念受追捧
诚如某虚拟货币交易平台负责人所言，此番上涨行情和支撑比特币的底层技术——区块链技术的概念被重新认识推崇有直接关系。近期，国际上不少商业银行、金融机构也开始深入研究区块链的商业化应用，这令虚拟货币的地位得到一定抬升。 As the head of a virtual money-trading platform has said, this upturn is directly related to the re-recognition of the concept of block-chain technology that underpins Bitcoin. Recently, a number of international commercial banks and financial institutions have also begun to study in depth the commercialization of block-chain applications, which has raised the status of virtual money.
有学者指出，借助区块链技术，许多金融业务都将“去中心化”，实现实时数字化的交易，比如证券交易的点对点直接交易、跨境支付结算等。根据麦肯锡的测算，区块链技术在全球范围B2B跨境支付与结算业务中的应用将使每笔交易的成本降低约40%。 It has been pointed out that, with block chain technology, many financial operations will be “decentralized” and real-time digitized transactions, such as point-to-point transactions in securities transactions, cross-border payments settlements, etc. The application of block chain technology in B2B cross-border payments and settlement operations worldwide will reduce the cost of each transaction by about 40%, as measured by McKinsey.
在资本市场上，受益于区块链概念的火热，不少创投和私募股权资本开始将目光投向了区块链市场，从而催生了一批围绕区块链技术应用的企业。6月22日，有消息称，百度、光大等机构投资6000万美元入股美国一家比特币初创公司。据悉，目前杭州早已有创业公司专注研发比特币“挖矿”技术及相关信息数据服务平台，或将区块链技术引入到互联网金融领域应用以确保平台交易安全和真实性，相关项目获得资本高度关注。 On the capital market, which benefited from the hotness of the block chain concept, a number of innovative and private equity capital began to look at the block chain market, thereby giving rise to a group of enterprises that were applying technology around the block chain. On June 22, it was reported that 100-degree, light, etc. had invested $60 million in a bitcoin start-up company in the United States.
在多方看好区块链技术应用前景的情况下，上市公司也对区块链和虚拟货币概念的相关项目倍加推崇。日前，山东一家上市公司发布重组公告预案称，拟以发行股份和支付现金结合的方式收购一家主营业务为比特币“矿机”制造芯片的公司，价格为30.6亿元。券商发表研报表示，若此次并购重组方案顺利通过，该上市公司将成为A股市场“区块链+人工智能”第一股，并成为区块链概念股龙头。不过，也有市场人士质疑，上述收购方案不排除是上市公司为迎合市场追捧的“比特币”概念，从而进行相关的资本运作。 Previously, a listed company in Shandong had issued a reorganisation bill stating that a company that intended to buy a major business by issuing shares and paying a cash combination to manufacture chips for a bitcoin “miner” at a price of $3.06 billion. A voucher dealer had published a study stating that, if the merger and reorganization programme were successfully adopted, the listed company would become the first stock in the “block chain plus artificial intelligence” of the A-share market and would become the leader in the block chain concept.
由于虚拟货币行情升温以及资本对区块链概念的追逐，从5月中旬开始，二级市场中的“区块链”概念板块也随即启动，渐入风口的区块链概念实际上也吸引了不少市场资金进场参与。从二级市场表现看，从5月中旬至今，近一个多月来，区块链概念板块个股涨势惊人。在上市公司收购比特币相关项目消息刺激下，5月17日，多只概念股全线飘红，部分个股开盘便迅速封至涨停，当日平均涨幅均超过5%以上。尽管同期大盘指数呈现震荡走势，但这些涉及区块链概念的个股仍在不同交易日收获多个涨停板。 Since mid-May, the “block chain” concept in the secondary market has been launched as a result of the warming of virtual currency and the capital-to-block concept. The sector chain concept has grown exponentially since mid-May, as evidenced by news of the purchase of bitcoin by upper-market companies.
不少券商对该领域的研究日益增多，令区块链概念升温明显。国金证券(600109,股吧)表示，区块链为价值互联网的发展提出了一个很好的发展方向，同时为各领域应用提供了底层的区块链安全存储系统。在价值互联网各领域的需求拉动下，底层协议性能将得到逐步优化，预计未来会涌现出更多区块链底层平台与应用，行业发展进程将远超市场预期。安信证券认为，区块链有望成为下一代互联网的基础设施，A股的金融IT公司凭借对金融业务的深刻理解，将成为“区块链+金融”的重要参与者。 Gold bonds (600109, stock bar) indicate that they provide a good direction for the development of value Internet, while providing a bottom-of-the-line system of secure storage of block chains for various applications. With demand driven in various areas of value Internet, bottom protocol performance will gradually be optimized, and more bottom-of-the-chain platforms and applications are expected to emerge in the future, and the process of industrial development will be far ahead of market expectations.
不过，也有业内人士提出，区块链技术发展未达预期，或区块链应用推广进程不达预期将是资本市场需要密切关注的问题，建议投资者先了解清楚区块链技术发展状况再“入场”。如果对数字货币没有更全面的认识，若仅仅简单地跟着概念股的价格上涨预期，投资风险不容忽视。 However, it has also been suggested by industry that the technology development of the block chain is not as expected, or that the process of extension of the block chain application is not expected to be a matter that requires close attention in capital markets. Investors are advised to understand the technological development of the block chain before “entering.” Investment risk cannot be ignored if there is no more comprehensive understanding of the digital currency, and if the price increase of the conceptual unit is simply followed. 分享让更多人看到 
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