以太坊2030会涨到多少钱一个？预计以太坊价格在2030年将会达到2.2万美元，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)于5月24日正式批准了八家以太坊现货ETF发行商提交的19b-4文件，为ETH的上市与潜在大规模投资铺平了道路，多位分析师预测，S-1文件有望在数周内获得批准。
How much will it increase to 2030? The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved, on 24 May, 19b-4 documents submitted by eight ETF distributors in ETH, which paved the way for the listing of ETH and potential large-scale investments, with multiple analysts predicting that S-1 documents are expected to be approved within weeks.
以太坊目标价上调至22,000美元
在此背景下，比特币现货ETF发行商VanEck昨(5)日发布一篇报告表示，预计以太坊价格在2030年将达到22,000美元，这相当于以太坊目前价格的5.67倍。 In this context, a report issued yesterday by Van Eck, the spot ETF publisher of Bitcoin, stated that it was expected to reach US$ 22,000 in 2030 at a price of US$ 22,000, equivalent to 5.67 times the current price of the TER. 同时，报告中也给出以太坊价格能达到22,000美元的理由：在强大价值主张的驱动下，以太坊网络可能会继续从传统金融市场参与者、以及越来越多的大型科技公司中快速扩展其市场份额。如果它能在保持智能合约平台领导地位的同时实现这一目标，我们预计，到2030年，持币者将可获得660亿美元的自由现金流，支持2.2兆美元的资产，即每枚代币价值22,000美元。 At the same time, the report gives the rationale for the amount of US$22,000 at Taiwan’s price: driven by powerful values claims, Taiwan’s network may continue to expand its market share rapidly from traditional financial market participants, as well as from a growing number of large technology companies. If it is able to achieve this while maintaining its leadership role as a smart contract platform, we expect that by 2030, currency holders will have access to US$66 billion in free cash flows, supporting US$2.2 trillion worth of assets, or US$22,000 per token. 不过值得注意的是，22,000美元的目标价，是代表以太坊能在智能合约市场能占到70%市占率。下图我们可以看到VanEck进一步预测： It is worth noting, however, that the target price of US$22,000 is a 70% share of the market for smart contracts on behalf of Tai Hwan. Here we can see Van Eck further predict: 智能合约市占率90%：ETH价格2030预估来到154,000美元。 The market for smart contracts accounts for 90 per cent: ETH prices are estimated at US$ 154,000. 智能合约市占率15%：ETH价格2030预估仅剩360美元。 The market for smart contracts accounts for 15 per cent: ETH prices are estimated to be only $360. VanEck的分析师在报告中表示，由于预期以太坊现货ETF即将上市，这将促使传统金融市场的资金流向以太坊。因此，VanEck更新了财务模型并重新评估了以太坊的投资价值。 VanEck's analyst in his report said that, as it was expected that ETF would soon be on the market, this would prompt the flow of funds to traditional financial markets. As a result, Van Eckk updated the financial model and reassessed the value of Etai's investment. 而据加密分析公司K33 Research4日公布的报告显示，以太坊现货ETF在美国推出的前五个月，可能会吸引31亿至48亿美元的净流入。 According to the report released by the cryptoanalytical company K33 Research4, the first five months of the launch of ETF in the United States may attract between $3.1 billion and $4.8 billion in net inflows. 投资组合最佳比例
另一方面，VanEck还在报告中还提到，若投资者想进行BTC和ETH的投资组合，最佳的分配比例是71.4%的BTC和28.6%的ETH。数据显示，这一比例配置产生了最高的夏普比率(Sharpe Ratio)，也就是说，这是考虑风险后的最佳回报率配置。 VanEck, on the other hand, also mentioned in the report that if investors wanted to have a BTC and ETH portfolio, the optimal distribution would be 71.4% BTC and 28.6% ETH. The data show that this ratio produces the highest Sharpe Ratio ratio, that is to say, the optimal rate of return allocation after taking risk into account. 夏普比率可以衡量金融领域的投资在对其调整风险后，相对于无风险资产的表现。投资人在承担相同风险的情况下，利用夏普比率比较哪种投资绩效更好。夏普比率越高，绩效越好。 The Sharp Ratio measures the performance of investments in the financial sector vis-à-vis risk-free assets after adjusting to their risks. Investors take on the same risks and use the Sharp Ratio to compare which investment performance is better. The higher the Sharp Ratio, the better.
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